Week 11 Game Matchup: Stanford Cardinal VS. USC Trojans
Stanford Cardinal (6-3) vs. USC Trojans (7-2)
Saturday, November 14, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -10.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*
Sam’s Take (43 – 16):
My what a difference two years makes. Stanford’s 2007 win at the Coliseum is considered one of the greatest upsets in the history of college football (‘SC was a 41 point favorite), but it should shock no one if the ‘Furd wins on Saturday. This game will essentially serve as a Pac-10 title elimination match, as the winner will still be in the hunt for a Rose Bowl birth.
Can anyone stop the Stanford offense? The Cardinal now rank 14th nationally in total offense, and the unit features arguably the best running back in college football. While many observers around the country are ready to hand Alabama RB Mark Ingram the Doak Walker Award (and possibly the Heisman), I believe RB Toby Gerhart belongs in the discussion.
The nation’s second leading rusher (1,217 16 TDs) will be going up against a Trojans D that has looked susceptible against good rushing teams (Oregon, Oregon State). If the Cardinal can establish a running game early, I expect QB Andrew Luck to have a lot of success in the passing game. Luck has one of the best play action fakes in the country, and he is a tremendous decision maker.
USC received some bad news this week, as it looks like all-universe wideout Damian Williams will be out for the Stanford game. ‘SC has turned to Williams for clutch plays all season, so the onus now falls on Ronald Johnson and Brice Brown to keep the passing game productive (and possibly TE Anthony McCoy if he can go). Fortunately for QB Matt Barkley, the Cardinal D has been terrible defending the pass (102nd nationally) so there should be plenty of opportunities down field no matter which 5-star talent lines up at wideout for the Trojans.
Regardless of what the point spread says I see this game as a virtual toss up. On a neutral field I would probably take Stanford, but the Cardinal have lost three of four on the road this season (with the only win coming at lowly Wazzu). Pete Carroll knows his Trojans are still in the hunt to win an eight straight Pac-10 title, and I think he will get the team extra motivated to defend their home field in these final three games. I expect a tight battle for four quarters, but ‘SC finds a way in the end.
Prediction: USC 33 – Stanford 30
Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Coby Fleener - Fleener is one of the many excellent tight ends that Harbaugh has at his disposal. I believe Fleener’s sure hands and crisp route running make him especially valuable in the Cardinal’s offensive scheme.
USC Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Chris Galippo - Everyone knows what Stanford likes to do offensively, but no one has really been able to stop it. Galippo will be one of the keys to containing Gerhart and the powerful Cardinal rushing attack.
Dave’s Take (46 – 13):
If this year has shown us anything, it is just how great of a conference the Pac-10 is, and that if you aren’t at your very best, you will likely find yourself on the losing end. How many teams have we seen get caught flat-footed coming off of a huge win this season? USC after Ohio State, Washington after USC, Oregon after USC, just to name a few.
This game strikes me as a prime let-down spot for the Cardinal for two reasons.
For one, just how much emotion went into that last game. To knock off the Pac-10 juggernaut Ducks took such an incredible effort from top to bottom. To lock up the first bowl bid in eight years, to have the fans rush the field… it will be nearly impossible to match that emotion and intensity in back to back games.
Secondly, Toby Gerhart is a human being. I know it’s hard to believe sometimes with the way he runs, but even the toughest players in the world get bumps and bruises. I have zero doubt that Gerhart will show up with the same intensity and power as he always does; but after his remarkable bruising 38-carry performance, I just can’t imagine he’ll be 100% this Saturday.
Stanford has a fantastic team, and a Jim Harbaugh team is always going to work hard for 60 minutes. That said, I just can’t imagine the Cardinal (or anyone for that matter) being able to put together two games at that level back-to-back, and they’ll need to against a team as tough as the Trojans in the Coliseum. Look for a game effort, but a Trojan victory in the end.
Prediction: USC 31 – Stanford 21
Stanford Cardinal, USC Trojans
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Andrew Luck, Anthony McCoy, Brice Brown, Chris Galippo, Coby Fleener, Damian Williams, Football, Jim Harbaugh, Matt Barkley, Pete Carroll, Ronald Johnson, Toby Gerhart
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