Week 10 Game Matchup: Oregon State Beavers VS. Cal Bears
Oregon State Beavers (5-3) vs. Cal Bears (6-2)
Saturday, November 7, 4:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -7.0
Sam’s Take (39 – 15):
Cal has not beaten Oregon State at Memorial Stadium since 1997, and the Bears will have to be at their very best to end the home losing streak on Saturday. It would not surprise me to see this one come down to the final minutes of the fourth, and I believe both offenses will light up the scoreboard.
On paper, these teams are frighteningly similar. Obviously, we know about the strong rushing attacks for both Cal and OSU, but QB’s Kevin Riley and Sean Canfield are also playing at an outstanding level. Riley has thrown for 785 yards with eight TDs and only 1 INT in his last three games, while Canfield is leading the Pac-10 with 2,039 yards and 11 TDs on the season.
The defenses have put up nearly identical statistics to this point. Cal ranks 76th nationally in total defense (115th against pass, 30th against run), while OSU ranks 79th in total D (116th against pass, 27th against run). Crazy huh?
In an evenly matched game like this one, little things can make a big difference. Cal will be without starting tight end Anthony Miller for the OSU game, and his loss could impact the immediate passing game. Riley must beat the Beavers with his arm early, or the stout OSU run D will load up to stop Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen.
As I look at both of these offenses, I believe Oregon State has the more potent attack right now. The Beavers lead the conference with 272.1 yards per game through the air, and much of that success can be attributed to the recent emergence of players like WR Demola Adeniji and TE Joe Halahuni. ‘Quizz Rodgers is playing like a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and his brother isn’t too shabby either, so Bob Gregory will need to put together one heck of a gameplan for the Cal defense.
While the Bears are WAY overdue for a home win against the Beavers, something tells me Mike Riley’s team will find a way to pull off the minor upset.
Prediction: Oregon State 35 – Cal 31
Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Keaton Kristick - Kristick is the anchor of the defense and an excellent run stopper. I look for him to be very active against Best and Vereen.
Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Marvin Jones - Jones has been the Bears most productive wideout this season, and I expect him to have a big day against a vulnerable OSU secondary.
Dave’s Take (42 – 12):
This one’s a tough one to call; both teams are very evenly matched, and this is Cal’s toughest test since coming off of the bye week, yet it does come at home.
While home field may end up being what tilts the game in favor of Cal, I like Oregon State in this spot. I’m still not 100% sold on Cal being back at top form, but more importantly, when I look at the body of work at the two key positions on offense in quarterback and runningback, I honestly think Oregon State has the edge in both.
And I don’t just mean by the numbers, either. Kevin Riley and Sean Canfield are pretty much a wash; they don’t make many mistakes and they make plenty of great decisions, but I’d argue Canfield has been slightly more consistent. As for running back, obviously Jahvid Best is always extremely dangerous coming out of the backfield, but something seems to be missing this year. Since Pac-10 play has started, Best has been very good, but not ELITE as we have come to expect him to be. ‘Quizz Rodgers meanwhile has been playing the position about as well as humanly possible, and no one seems to have any answer for him.
In what should be a very fun game to watch that comes doen to the wire, I think Oregon State does enough to grab the win.
Prediction: Oregon State 34 – Cal 27
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