Oregon Ducks (0-0) vs. Boise State Broncos (0-0)
Thursday, September 3, 7:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Boise State -4.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (0 – 0):

The 2009 college football season starts with a bang Thursday, as this highly anticipated non-conference showdown could have BCS ramifications. This is a very difficult game to handicap, and I have done a ton of flip-flopping to this point.

Here is what we know: both teams have powerful offenses and opportunistic defenses, but there are also some question marks. For Boise State, the young receivers must prove that they are ready for prime time right away, and although the running game should be solid, losing a signature standout like Ian Johnson (graduation) does not make you better.

For Oregon, the offensive and defensive lines will need to gel quickly, as this game will be a huge test for those units.

Quarterback will be a source of strength for both teams. Kellen Moore was spectacular last year at Autzen (386 yards passing, 3 TD’s) while Jeremiah Masoli had a game to forget against the Broncos (left game with concussion early on) but finished last season as well as any QB in the conference.

Oregon’s defense had one of its worst outings of 2008 against the Broncos, triggered by a terrible start. For the Ducks to have any chance the D must get a few stops early or else it could be a long night. Boise State has an outstanding secondary, but the defensive line may be vulnerable to the power running of LeGarrette Blount and the shiftiness of the other UO backs.

Ultimately, I believe we will see an Oregon team similar to the one that torched Oklahoma State and less like the one that Boise pushed around last year. While I fully expect the Broncos best effort, I think the payback-minded Ducks will have just enough.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Boise State 34

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: QB Jeremiah Masoli – He has stated that last year’s loss to BSU was “embarrassing”. Those are strong words, and he will have to back them up because the passing game will need to be sharp for the Ducks to win. While the secondary and both lines must also be strong, I believe Masoli’s performance will the key for setting the tone.

Boise State Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Jeremy Avery – He showed flashes of brilliance last season, and will now be the top replacement to Johnson. While BSU will use other backs as well, I believe Avery is the key to keeping the Oregon D honest.

Dave’s Take (0 – 0):

You can’t ask for a much better football game to kick off the 2009 college football season for the Pac-10 than this one. These two teams could not be much more evenly matched; two high powered offenses, both rebuilding on both the offensive and defensive lines.

Off the field they match up very similarly too; both are ranked within a few spots of each other in most preseason polls, and both realize that this game sets the tone for their entire season, and puts all of their question marks into the spotlight right away.

While it will likely just come down to bounces or a timely big play, after changing my mind a dozen times, I must stick with my original gut feeling and pick the Ducks to come out on top here.

In a game this evenly matched, I believe the main intangible for each team is Boise State’s home field advantage and Oregon’s desire for revenge.

Boise State is 64-2 at home since 1999, and has won 49 straight regular season games at home, with Washington State handing them their last regular season loss on September 8^th, 2001. You can’t ignore how impressive that is. But when was the last time the Broncos were less than a 10-point favorite at home? Back in 2006 when they were favored by 7.5 to beat Oregon State.

The Beavers started the season off in one of their typical early-season slumps and fell to the Broncos. I’m not taking anything away from this home streak; consistently winning even against inferior opponents is an excellent feat. But this is the best team Boise State has faced at home since Boston College in the 2005 MPC Bowl; which the Broncos lost.

For Oregon, this game is all about revenge, and I’m a sucker for the revenge angle, especially at the collegiate level. It isn’t only that Boise State came into Oregon and beat them on their own turf last year, they also injured Jeremiah Masoli in the process. Oregon has a huge bone to pick, and as LeGarrette Blount said to a Sports Illustrated reporter while watching last year’s game on tape; “We owe that team a (butt)-whuppin’.”

Come Thursday night, I think Blount and the rest of the Ducks offense makes good on that declaration.

Prediction: Oregon 41 – Boise State 35