Oregon State Beavers (8-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (9-2)
Thursday, December 3, 6:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -9.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Year*

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Last year I watched in stunned silence as Oregon throttled Oregon State in Corvallis, and all I remember thinking by the time the 65-38 massacre ended was “Will the Beavers ever have a chance to truly get redemption?” Here we are just one year later, and somehow, that question can be answered with an emphatic yes. Now the stakes are higher than ever, as this will be the first time in the history of the Civil War that both programs can clinch a Rose Bowl berth with a victory.

I see two key areas that will be deciding factors in the War for the Roses.

1. Oregon running game vs. Oregon State run defense – This is the most obvious strength vs. strength match up. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-10 and eighth nationally in rushing offense, while the Beavers rank first in the Pac-10 and 13th nationally in run defense. Obviously Oregon easily won this battle last year, so it will be interesting to see how Mark Banker’s unit performs on Thursday.

2. Oregon State passing game vs. Oregon pass defense – This appears to be the second biggest strength vs. strength match up. OSU heads to Eugene with the best passing offense in the Pac-10 (24th nationally) and QB Sean Canfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference. Despite season ending injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper, the Ducks still rank second in the Pac-10 against pass (29th nationally).

In my opinion, both defenses will struggle in this game. I have no doubt that Mark Banker will have a great game plan this week, but it may not matter. When the Ducks are rolling, they can execute their high-powered attack against any defensive scheme in the country. I also think Nick Aliotti’s unit will be in for a long game. The Ducks have yet to face ‘Quizz Rodgers, and the balanced Beaver attack can score in a variety of ways.

Ultimately, I believe Autzen Stadium will be the difference… again. Jeremiah Masoli has another gear when he plays at home, which makes Oregon’s offensive attack that much tougher to contain. I expect Masoli and LaMichael James to get going early, which will then open passing lanes for the talented Ducks receiving corps. While I expect the Beavers to match UO score for score until late in the second half, Mike Riley’s club will come up a little short in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

Here’s hoping for a classic!

Prediction: Oregon 42 – Oregon State 38

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni has been one of the biggest surprises on this OSU offense in 2009, and the sophomore will be a huge part of the passing game again this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: FS T.J. Ward – Ward is a physical defensive back who should play a huge role in defending the run as well as the pass. I look for him to have a big impact this week.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

When this game was scheduled back at the beginning of the season to be the prime time game on ESPN Thursday night, no one could have imagined just how big this game would be.

For either team to have the chance to clinch the Rose Bowl in this one is quite a feat; but winner take all? This is the sort of thing that you see in movies.

After going 10 straight years (1997-2006) trading blows with the home team winning every time, Oregon State finally bucked the trend in 2007 with a double OT winner at Autzen. The Ducks returned the favor in 2008, stomping the Beavers in Corvallis and costiing them a trip to the Rose Bowl. While there is little doubt that home field advantage will still play a big role in this game, the fact that the road team has won the last two games adds an interesting wrinkle.

As much as I really do believe the Beavers have a great chance in this one, I can’t pick against the Ducks, especially at home. The Ducks have now put up 42+ points in seven straight games that Jeremiah Masoli has started, and since conference play has begun they have just mowed through top conference opponents (dropping #6 Cal by 38 and #5 USC by 27).

I expect a much more competitive game than last year, but can’t find enough of an edge for the Beavers to overrule the fact that the game is in Autzen.

Prediction: Oregon 48 – Oregon State 42

Oregon Ducks 5-1 Overall (3-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 24 – UCLA 10

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Coming into this season, there were a lot of questions surrounding Nick Aliotti’s defense. How would the d-line hold up, especially now that Nick Reed has moved on? Could the secondary overcome the losses of Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd? Then more recently, who would step up now that Walter Thurmond III and Willie Glasper are done for the season (not to mention the uncertain status of T.J. Ward)?

If the first three Pac-10 games are any indication, many of those questions have been answered. Oregon has been off-the-charts good on D so far in the conference, giving up three points to Cal, six to Wazzu and three to UCLA. The Ducks continue to prove they can win even when the offense isn’t its explosive self.

After a lackluster first half against the Bruins (UO trailed 3-0 at half), Kenjon Barner’s kickoff return TD ignited the Ducks. Oregon fans have to feel good about what Talmadge Jackson (INT return for TD), Cliff Harris, and the rest of the makeshift secondary was able to accomplish in Pasadena.

Of course the other story from Saturday was the continued excellence of RB LaMichael James. James has far surpassed the hype coming out of Eugene during spring and fall camp, and he is quickly developing into one of the best tailbacks in the Pac-10. His 152 rushing yards accounted for over half of the Ducks offensive output. James now has 581 rushing yards (3rd in conference) and four TDs on the season.

QB Nate Costa did not do much (9/17 82 yards, 1 TD 1 INT), but he didn’t have to. Costa’s job was to manage the game, and he did just that. If not for an incredibly athletic play by Bruins LB Akeem Ayers, Costa’s stat sheet would have looked a bit better, but all things considered, it was a solid effort.

The Ducks get a much needed bye week, and this is the perfect time for Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the injured to fully recuperate. Then it’s off to Seattle for a date with the hated Washington Huskies. One of the Pac-10’s most heated rivalries will finally have some restored meaning, and there should be an electric atmosphere at Husky Stadium in two weeks. If the Ducks escape Montlake with a victory, the Halloween showdown with USC is on at Autzen.

Oregon Ducks (4-1) vs. UCLA Bruins (3-1)
Saturday, October 10, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -3.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (25 – 12):

Oregon has been firing on all cylinders for the last two weeks, but this Saturday’s game is not taking place in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. Remember the last time Oregon played a road game?

The Ducks may have to overcome more than just a rowdy Rose Bowl crowd, as it remains to be seen if QB Jeremiah Masoli can play Saturday. Nate Costa certainly has the tools to be successful, but can he lead the Ducks to a meaningful win in his first career start (especially on the road)? The Ducks will also be without CB Willie Glasper, who was supposed to fill the void left by Walter Thurmond III. Now the Ducks are without their two best corners for the rest of the season, and Norm Chow will likely test the secondary early in the game.

Chow may have the services of starting QB Kevin Prince (broken jaw), who has recently resumed practicing with the first team offense. Prince can make all of the deep throws that Kevin Craft can’t, which means there should be plenty of opportunities for the Bruin receivers against the inexperienced Oregon corners.

I believe there are many reasons to pick the upset here, but something tells me Oregon will find a way. Costa understands Chip Kelly’s system well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him flourish (just as LaMichael James has been great at RB in place of Blount). The UCLA run defense is good, but Stanford proved that it is not impenetrable. I also love the way Oregon’s defensive front seven is playing, so Prince (or Craft) may be in for a very long day if the pass rush looks like it has over the past couple of weeks.

I see the resilient Ducks pulling this one out in Pasadena.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – UCLA 24

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson – Whether Costa or Masoli plays Saturday; #83 should be a feature part of the passing game.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Korey Bosworth - Bosworth will be a key to disrupting the timing of Oregon’s misdirection spread attack.

Dave’s Take (29 – 8):

For the Halloween matchup between the USC Trojans and the Oregon Ducks to be the Pac-10 Game of the Year that it is currently looking like it might be, both teams are going to have to actually get there without anymore missteps; and the first challenge for the Ducks comes this Saturday in UCLA.

UCLA’s generally stout defense was exposed last Saturday, especially on the ground; playing against Toby Gerhart can do that to defenses. While there isn’t a whole lot of doubt that the Bruins defense is strong, Luck and Gerhart’s big days are definitely cause for concern; how will the D hold up against stronger offenses? San Diego State, Kansas State, and even Tennessee (with Crompton at the helm) didn’t really give us a good indication.

Oregon’s offense has found its groove, but now Jeremiah Masoli’s status is in question, and a defense like UCLA’s on the road isn’t the first start I want to see Nate Costa get as a Ducks fan. Heading back on the road for the first time in over a month is hard enough; doing so completely demolished by injuries (Glasper, Thurmond III) is even worse.

With the return of Kevin Prince and home field advantage, the Bruins will be extremely focused and geared up for the upset. Beating Oregon would help them avoid falling to 0-2 in the conference and would also establish their presence in the conference.

Even with the injuries, I think Oregon has what it takes to win this game. What it really comes down to is mental toughness, something the Ducks didn’t show a whole lot of the last time they headed out on the road. I’m going to trust them to get the job done this time around; but it’ll come down to the wire.

Prediction: Oregon 27 – UCLA 23

But for Oregon to play in Pasadena twice this season (once being at UCLA), the secondary will have to step up in a big way.

Aliotti’s defenses are known for achieving great success through aggressive man-to-man defense, and for the most part, they played that way in 2008 even though the numbers seem to tell a different story.

The defensive backfield finished 111th nationally in pass defense, and last in the Pac-10. There were a number of reasons for this, ranging from the UO offense’s time of possession (last in nation at 25:11), to the run defense being so strong (23rd nationally, 2nd in Pac-10).

Still, in two of the Ducks three losses (against USC and Boise State), the secondary allowed an average of 414.5 yards passing, and repeat performances against the Broncos and Trojans will be unacceptable.

Walter Thurmond III runs it in for the score

The unit must replace two NFL talents, in cornerback Jairus Byrd (2nd round pick of Bills) and rover Patrick Chung (2nd round pick of Patriots). While it won’t be easy, the shelf is still pretty well stocked.

Secondary coach John Neal has a ton of skill to work with even after the losses of Byrd and Chung, including an all-conference cornerback ready to end his Ducks career with a special senior season.

Cornerbacks

Senior Walter Thurmond III enters the 2009 season as one of the most decorated cornerbacks in the Pac-10. He was named to the Jim Thorpe (Top DB in Nation) watch list, and voted pre-season First Team All-American by a variety of publications.

Thurmond has become a mainstay in the Ducks secondary, starting 37 of the last 38 games, and garnering some form of post-season honors in each of the last three seasons.

Last year, he finished tied for first in the Pac-10 with five interceptions despite missing time with injuries, and totaled 66 tackles and 13 pass breakups as well. In addition to his role in the secondary, Thurmond returned a team-high 21 kickoffs for 527 yards (25.1 avg. including a 91 yard return against Oklahoma State). In 2007, he finished second on the team with 103 tackles and five interceptions, while also breaking up a conference-high 23 passes.

At 6-0 180 pounds, Thurmond possesses an elite combination of size and speed (4.3). He is a true game-changer at cornerback who loves to bait quarterbacks into throwing his way (see 40 yard INT TD in Civil War). Thurmond can be left on an island against almost any receiver in the conference, making him the perfect Aliotti style defender. He has also demonstrated excellent run-stopping ability, which is a rarity at his position.

Thurmond enjoyed a particularly good spring even by his standards, and he’s looked sharp in fall practice as well. The West Covina (CA) native will be counted on to provide the Ducks D with a true shutdown cornerback in 2009.

The likely starter at CB alongside Thurmond will be senior Willie Glasper.

The experienced Glasper has played in 39 games (most of any player on defense) during his career as a backup CB and primary special teams contributor. Last season, he finished with 21 tackles, but he figures to increase that total quite a bit in 2009.

At 5-11 188 pounds, Glasper is a true cover-corner, with great speed (4.4) and polished technique. He breaks well on the ball and has good overall awareness. Glasper is not the dynamite athlete that Thurmond is, so teams may therefore attack his side of the field if he starts this season. Nonetheless, he is a gifted and experienced number-two caliber cornerback who appears up for the challenge.

The Pittsburg (CA) native was given 4-star recognition by both Rivals and Scout.com, while also garnering Parade All-American honors after a stellar prep career at De La Salle High School (CA). Glasper had a pelvic injury recently this fall, but he has looked 100% over the last few days of camp. His presence will be very important in the secondary, and he has a great chance to start in 2009.

Redshirt freshman Scott Grady and sophomore Anthony Gildon are also options at corner.

The 5-11 180 pound Grady spent last season with the scout team, and has impressed John Neal with his off-season progress. Grady has looked stronger, faster and more confident than the coaches anticipated, and he appears ready to contribute this season.

He plays with great anticipation and has the size to jam receivers (plays bigger than 5-11 180). He also has great ball skills and can help out on run support. The Tigard (OR) native will be a key reserve at corner this season.

The 6-1 175 pound Gildon appeared in nine games as a true freshman in 2007 (one tackle), and redshirted last season. He is a superior athlete with tremendous leaping ability (36.5 inch vertical), great speed (4.45), and impressive fluidity. His size should allow him to flourish in Aliotti’s physical defensive scheme, as he is perfect for press man-to-man defense. Rivals.com gave Gildon 4-star recognition while he was at Oaks Christian High School (CA).

The Simi Valley (CA) native should see considerable action in 2009.

Safeties

Besides Thurmond, senior T.J. Ward is the biggest superstar in this defensive backfield. The punishing free safety has made a habit of producing highlight-reel hits.

Last season, he led all Oregon tacklers with 101 stops (tied for fifth in conference) and also added eight pass breakups (2nd on team) and 5.5 tackles for loss on his way to honorable mention All-Pac 10. The former walk-on enters this season on a variety of pre-season all-conference teams.

At 5-11 201 pounds, Ward is an exceptionally powerful athlete, and he demonstrated his strength this off-season as a member of the Oregon Iron Club with a combined 1,083 pounds in the clean, squat, and bench press. He plays the free safety position like a true intimidator, using a combination of good speed (sub-4.5), excellent instincts and aggressive pursuit angles to blow up offensive plays at will.

The Antioch (CA) native will be one of the key performers on the defense this season.

Patrick Chung’s replacement at rover will be junior Talmadge Jackson III. Jackson has played in 26 straight games since arriving in Eugene as a true freshman in 2007. Last season, he totaled 30 tackles, six pass breakups, and two interceptions (3rd on team), while also starting at CB when Thurmond was injured against Boise State and Washington State. Additionally, he returned five kickoffs for 59 yards on special teams.

At 5-10 182 pounds, Jackson is a versatile athlete with great speed (sub-4.5) and excellent quickness. He’s a great fit for the rover position because of his ability to cover, play in the box, and contribute in nickel situations. His size may not suggest that he can play safety, but Aliotti believes he plays in space better than any other candidate at rover. Jackson has also practiced at corner, and could play there again if injuries mount in the secondary.

Regardless of where he plays, Jackson will be a primary contributor for the Ducks in 2009. The Murrieta (CA) native was limited to non-contact drills during spring because of injury, but he has responded nicely during the fall.

Junior Marvin Johnson will be Jackson’s main backup at rover. Last season, Johnson was a key reserve and special teams contributor, making 14 tackles and one fumble recovery in 11 games, but also missing a lot of time with an injury.

At 5-11 199 pounds, Johnson has a very good combination of size and speed, but also a history of knee problems. When healthy, he is one of the hardest hitters in the secondary and one of the best overall athletes on the team (reportedly throws the football 75 yards).

The Compton (CA) native must prove that he can stay healthy, as his presence is very important for the depth at safety.

Sophomore Javes Lewis should be a key backup for Ward at free safety. Lewis played in all 13 games as a redshirt freshman, accounting for 19 tackles and three pass breakups as a reserve DB. At 6-1 185 pounds, he is an explosive athlete who loves to hit, and could become a mainstay at safety once Ward graduates, but he is prone to giving up some big plays. For now, the Tustin (CA) native will likely play a limited role in the secondary, but he has a bright future with the program.

Other players competing for time are: seniors Titus Jackson and Pono Kam, junior Brian Butterfield, sophomore Will Wallace, freshmen Kenjon Barner (may spend time at RB) Tyrone Radford, and Brian Jackson

* Freshman Cliff Harris is still awaiting clearance from NCAA so his status is unclear, and freshman Avery Patterson is out with foot surgery. Neither player was listed on the latest fall roster.

My Take

Half of this Oregon secondary (Thurmond and Ward) is as good as any in the conference, but it is the other half that will determine the Ducks fate at the third level. It’s hard for me to imagine this unit without Byrd (started 37 consecutive games) and especially Chung (51 consecutive games started in a row; most in school history for UO defensive player). But, the show must go on in Eugene, and there are some capable replacements.

Obviously the headliner will be Thurmond, who has next-level ability and could even work his way into the first round of the draft this coming April if he has another strong year. There are very few playmaking corners like Thurmond, and it is a pleasure to watch him play.

His partner looks like it will be Glasper, who arrived at UO with great expectations and may finally get the chance to reach them. As mentioned earlier, I expect teams to attack Glasper early, but I also believe he has the cover skills necessary to handle it.

At safety, Ward should add a few more Sportscenter hits to his resume, while also continuing to be ultra-productive at FS. Aliotti defenses are known for flying all over the field, and Ward personifies that philosophy.

I am most interested in the rover position, where Talmadge Jackson is looking to replace a legend (coaches jokingly called the position “The Chung” for four years). Head coach Chip Kelly believes Jackson is very similar to Byrd, possessing the versatility to play corner and both safety spots. I agree, and that’s why I’m excited to see how he does this season.

There are certainly question marks within this Oregon secondary, and the answers could come in Boise, Idaho week one.

Ultimately, I expect the unit to generate a ton of turnovers as it has in the past, while also giving up some passing yards in the process.