BRUT SUN BOWL
El Paso, Texas
Oklahoma Sooners (7-5) VS. #21 Stanford Cardinal (8-4)
Thursday, December 31, 11:00 AM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oklahoma -10.0

Sam’s Take (57 – 23):

There is plenty to like about this year’s Sun Bowl, as it pits one of the rising stars of the coaching profession (Jim Harbaugh) against one of the sport’s best over the last decade (Bob Stoops). We will also see one of the nation’s premier running backs (Toby Gerhart) take on a defense full of NFL talent that ranked 7th nationally in total defense this season. Unfortunately, the one thing we won’t see is a dream quarterback dual between Sam Bradford and freshman phenom Andrew Luck, but it should still be a fun game in El Paso.

The biggest question heading into the Sun Bowl is how effective the Stanford running game can be without Luck at the helm. Certainly Gerhart is the heart and soul of the team, but I question whether the Cardinal offensive line can open up space against an Oklahoma d-line that is downright nasty (Sooners ranked 7th nationally against the run). With Tavita Pritchard under center this Stanford offense looks more like it did in 2008, and that team went 5-7. If the Cardinal cannot stay moderately balanced on offense, it could be a long day for the Heisman runner-up.

Oklahoma may not be lighting the scoreboard on fire like it did with Bradford running the show, but this team is still full of explosive talent. Stanford’s defense has been susceptible throughout the season, especially through the air. I expect QB Landry Jones and the Sooners powerful passing attack (17th nationally in passing offense) to give the Cardinal defense problems all day (Stanford ranked 105th nationally against pass).

There is still a slight chance that Andrew Luck could play at some point during the game, but I am not confident that he will be healthy enough to make a difference. I expect the ultra-talented Oklahoma defense to load the box against Gerhart, and it’s hard for me to believe that Pritchard will make the Sooners pay.

I like Oklahoma in this one.

Prediction: Oklahoma 34 – Stanford 24

Oklahoma Player to Keep an Eye On: DT Gerald McCoy – McCoy is an All-American and a dominant presence in the middle of the Sooner defensive line. He will likely be a top ten pick in this year’s draft, so the Stanford o-line will have its hands full.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Owen Marecic – Marecic is one of the best fullbacks in college football and he will have to play like it in this game. He is a deceptively good receiver but is at his best when lead blocking for Gerhart.

Dave’s Take (59 – 21):

It really is a shame that Andrew Luck won’t be able to play in the bowl game he helped lead this team to.

Without him, I’m just not sure that Stanford has the versatility to have success on offense against a tough Oklahoma defense. Needless to say, Toby Gerhart will get a healthy dose of carries and yards and will likely cross the goalline once or twice, too; but without Luck there to keep the defense honest, the Sooners can hone in on stopping the run, and while you can’t STOP a player like Toby Gerhart, you can certainly slow him down if the passing game is neutralized by the lack of a serious threat at quarterback.

The Cardinals’ defense has for the most part fed off of the offense’s energy this season, which poses a problem when considering the likelihood of a tough day offensively. Despite Sam Bradford’s absence, Oklahoma still has a very dangerous offense, and they will likely put up their share of points.

I’m sure that Coach Harbaugh will have his team jacked up for the game, but I just don’t think the Cardinal have the tools with Andrew Luck out to compete against Oklahoma if the Sooners are at their best, which I expect them to be after a frustrating season on their end.

Prediction: Oklahoma 31 – Stanford 17

Stanford Cardinal 7-3 Overall (6-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Stanford 55 – USC 21

Next Week’s Opponent: Cal

I thought last week’s win over Oregon would be the signature moment of the 2009 season for Stanford…boy was I wrong. Make no mistake about it, the Cardinal beat a better team two weeks ago in Palo Alto, but what Jim Harbaugh’s club accomplished in the Coliseum this past Saturday was absolutely remarkable.

For those still trying to figure out how this Stanford team has become a legitimate threat to win the Pac-10, all you have to do is take a look back at Harbaugh’s Pac-10 Media Day press conference from July. The 45-year old coach made it quite clear that his team was preparing for war every week. “This is going to be a physical conference — only the strong are going to survive in this environment, 2009 Pac-10 football. This is going to be a mighty men conference this year.”

Harbaugh challenged his team to be the most mentally and physically prepared group in the conference, and they have been.

The Cardinal consistently won the battle at the line of scrimmage against USC, as both the o-line and d-line punished the Trojans throughout the game. Obviously RB Toby Gerhart had another Heisman-worthy day (178 yards 3 TDs) but in my opinion the real reason Stanford has a shot at the Rose Bowl is because of #12. With all due respect to Tavita Pritchard, this Stanford offense is virtually identical to last season’s unit except at the quarterback position.

I believe Andrew Luck is the best QB in the Pac-10, and it continues to astound me that he is a redshirt freshman. Luck did not have a monster day against ‘SC (12-22 144 yards 2 TDs, 61 yards rushing 1 TD) but he easily won the “Battle of the Pac-10’s Young Guns” over Matt Barkley. I am amazed at Luck’s pocket presence, as he always seems to be in control of every play. Can you imagine how good this kid will be in 2-3 years?

How about the Stanford D? Ron Lynn’s unit was all over Barkley (threw three picks), and I have to believe Harbaugh is thrilled with how the group rebounded after the shaky performance against Oregon (Cardinal allowed 21 points vs. ‘SC, 42 vs. UO).

Up next for Stanford is a particularly big Big Game. A Cardinal win Saturday keeps the Pac-10 title dream alive (depending on the UO-UA game), but a loss to the Bears could drop Stanford all the way to fifth in the standings. Oh, and Bay Area superiority will be on the line.

At the center of the excitement stands redshirt freshman Andrew Luck.  Luck was the prize recruit of the 2008 recruiting class, and thus far, he has lived up to the billing.

The 6-4 225 pound Luck enjoyed a superb spring and left camp as the favorite to win the starting job for Stanford over incumbent, Tavita Pritchard. He closed out spring practice with one the best performances of any QB in the conference this off-season, going 18-of-25 for 352 yards and five touchdowns in the Cardinal and White game.

Those kind of numbers, even in a spring game, are very impressive considering the fact that Stanford had the 103rd ranked passing attack in America one season ago.

Luck’s size and arm strength have coaches drooling over the possibilities for the passing game in 2009. If you factor in power running back Toby Gerhart’s ability to keep the defense honest, it could be a potent offense for Stanford this fall.

Andrew Luck takes the snap

Luck spent all of last season running the scout team for the Cardinal, and he familiarized himself with Harbaugh’s system in the process. His first year in Palo Alto was also productive in terms of physical maturation. He grew one full inch and put on 20 pounds of muscle from the time he left high school to spring of 2009.

Luck went to Stratford High School in the football-rich state of Texas. Rivals.com rated him as the country’s most accurate passer in the class of 2008. Scout.com tabbed him as the No. 4 QB in the nation. Although it is hard to characterize Luck as a true dual-threat, he did manage to rush for 2,085 yards in his high school career.

Besides his impressive football resume, Luck was valedictorian of his class at Stratford High, therefore encompassing everything Stanford wants out of a student-athlete. While Luck has not won the job officially, he has the mental and physical tools that Harbaugh looks for in a starter.

Amidst all of the enthusiasm surrounding Luck, senior Tavita Pritchard looks to regain control of the starting QB job that he has had for the past two seasons. While he lost an edge in April, Pritchard is not out of the running yet.

He has had mixed results in his time at Stanford so far, but can be a solid game-manager and has a knack for alluding pressure with his mobility. Plus, can you really count out a QB that beat USC at the Coliseum in his first career start? At 6-4 215 pounds, Pritchard has good size and provides Stanford with an insurance plan in case Luck does not pan out.

Junior Alex Loukas is Stanford’s other QB that could see time. Unfortunately, Loukas tore his ACL just as spring was beginning and will not be back until after the first few games of the season.

When he does come back, the 6-4 223 pound Illinois native will provide the Cardinal with another experienced QB. He played in eight games last season, including engineering a game-winning scoring drive against Arizona. Loukas is a great athlete and makes plays with his feet often.

My Take

I think Jim Harbaugh has a QB that he can build around with Luck. Pritchard may play at some point this season, but it won’t take long for Luck to be the guy. If the coaching staff manages his growth properly, I think Luck could develop into a big time passer.

The last time the Cardinal had a really talented QB was with Trent Edwards, but Edwards didn’t have the kind of team around him that Luck will. Harbaugh can recruit, and when he brings in these next few recruiting classes, look out for the ‘Furd.