Oregon Ducks (5-1) vs. Washington Huskies (3-4)
Saturday, October 24, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -10.0

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

The Ducks and Huskies have formed one of the Pac-10’s fiercest rivalries over the years, but when is the last time there was any buzz surrounding this game? While Washington holds a significant lead in the all-time series (58-38-5), the Ducks have obliterated U-Dub in five straight meetings, making the usually nasty rivalry nothing more than an afterthought.

I believe this year will be different. The buzz is back in this series, and despite Washington’s best effort to throw away every bit of momentum they have accumulated this season (that 50-yard TD bomb from Danny Sullivan still seems surreal), I believe coach Sark, Jake Locker and an extra-fiery Nick Holt will have the Dawgs ready to play at home.

Having said all of that, I also think Oregon will come ready to play. QB Jeremiah Masoli may not be 100%, but all indications are that he will start. Chip Kelly may limit the playbook a bit this week, especially considering the Ducks need to have a healthy Masoli for the ‘SC game. I therefore expect to see a heavy dose of RB LaMichael James, as this UW defense has been suspect against the run (86th in nation) and James has already proven he can tear through a pretty solid D (UCLA) even without the threat of a passing game. The Huskies have been tremendous defensively in the red zone, but I still expect Chip Kelly’s squad to score a few times inside the 20-yard line.

The most compelling match up in this game involves QB Jake Locker and the UW offense going up against an Oregon D that is playing as well as any in the Pac-10 (and possibly the country). The Ducks have disrupted opposing QBs all season (even Boise’s Kellen Moore), but Locker will be the unit’s biggest test of the season thus far.

I am really looking forward to this game, and I believe it has a chance to be the most exciting of the week in the Pac-10. The Huskies have the ingredients to pull the off the upset this year, but I really think Oregon is on a mission. Chip Kelly has the Ducks locked in right now, and I think they will do just enough to escape a very hostile environment with a win.

Prediction: Oregon 31 – Washington 27

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Talmadge Jackson III - Jackson had a game to remember against UCLA, and he will be one of the keys to containing the talented UW receivers.

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Chris Polk - If Polk can hit a few big runs early, the entire offense will open up for Jake Locker to work his magic.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

You can’t deny that there is just something special about when Washington plays at home this year. Their 3-1 record includes thrilling wins over ranked USC and Arizona, and their only loss came in a well-played game against LSU. Upsetting another major conference player is a serious possibility this Saturday.

With that said, I honestly don’t think UW will be able to keep up this week. Oregon is clicking in all three facets of the game; special teams has been great, the defense has been insanely strong since conference play has started, and the offense is always a major threat. Washington has been shredded by the run in Pac-10 play, and it is hard to see them bucking that trend against LaMichael James and the nation’s 16th best rushing attack (202.7 yards per game).

Washington’s offense has plenty of talent, and Jake Locker and Chris Polk have really emerged as stars, but they are only averaging 25.4 points per game (76th in the nation). Good defenses have been able to limit Washington’s offensive output, and the Ducks shut-down defense should be able to do the same.

Unless Jeremiah Masoli reverts back to his early-season struggles and makes a ton of mistakes (which Washington has proven, especially at home, that they can capitalize on), I see Oregon taking the crowd out of this game early and heading into next week’s Halloween showdown with ‘SC in top form.

Prediction: Oregon 31 – Washington 17

Oregon Ducks 5-1 Overall (3-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 24 – UCLA 10

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Coming into this season, there were a lot of questions surrounding Nick Aliotti’s defense. How would the d-line hold up, especially now that Nick Reed has moved on? Could the secondary overcome the losses of Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd? Then more recently, who would step up now that Walter Thurmond III and Willie Glasper are done for the season (not to mention the uncertain status of T.J. Ward)?

If the first three Pac-10 games are any indication, many of those questions have been answered. Oregon has been off-the-charts good on D so far in the conference, giving up three points to Cal, six to Wazzu and three to UCLA. The Ducks continue to prove they can win even when the offense isn’t its explosive self.

After a lackluster first half against the Bruins (UO trailed 3-0 at half), Kenjon Barner’s kickoff return TD ignited the Ducks. Oregon fans have to feel good about what Talmadge Jackson (INT return for TD), Cliff Harris, and the rest of the makeshift secondary was able to accomplish in Pasadena.

Of course the other story from Saturday was the continued excellence of RB LaMichael James. James has far surpassed the hype coming out of Eugene during spring and fall camp, and he is quickly developing into one of the best tailbacks in the Pac-10. His 152 rushing yards accounted for over half of the Ducks offensive output. James now has 581 rushing yards (3rd in conference) and four TDs on the season.

QB Nate Costa did not do much (9/17 82 yards, 1 TD 1 INT), but he didn’t have to. Costa’s job was to manage the game, and he did just that. If not for an incredibly athletic play by Bruins LB Akeem Ayers, Costa’s stat sheet would have looked a bit better, but all things considered, it was a solid effort.

The Ducks get a much needed bye week, and this is the perfect time for Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the injured to fully recuperate. Then it’s off to Seattle for a date with the hated Washington Huskies. One of the Pac-10’s most heated rivalries will finally have some restored meaning, and there should be an electric atmosphere at Husky Stadium in two weeks. If the Ducks escape Montlake with a victory, the Halloween showdown with USC is on at Autzen.

But for Oregon to play in Pasadena twice this season (once being at UCLA), the secondary will have to step up in a big way.

Aliotti’s defenses are known for achieving great success through aggressive man-to-man defense, and for the most part, they played that way in 2008 even though the numbers seem to tell a different story.

The defensive backfield finished 111th nationally in pass defense, and last in the Pac-10. There were a number of reasons for this, ranging from the UO offense’s time of possession (last in nation at 25:11), to the run defense being so strong (23rd nationally, 2nd in Pac-10).

Still, in two of the Ducks three losses (against USC and Boise State), the secondary allowed an average of 414.5 yards passing, and repeat performances against the Broncos and Trojans will be unacceptable.

Walter Thurmond III runs it in for the score

The unit must replace two NFL talents, in cornerback Jairus Byrd (2nd round pick of Bills) and rover Patrick Chung (2nd round pick of Patriots). While it won’t be easy, the shelf is still pretty well stocked.

Secondary coach John Neal has a ton of skill to work with even after the losses of Byrd and Chung, including an all-conference cornerback ready to end his Ducks career with a special senior season.

Cornerbacks

Senior Walter Thurmond III enters the 2009 season as one of the most decorated cornerbacks in the Pac-10. He was named to the Jim Thorpe (Top DB in Nation) watch list, and voted pre-season First Team All-American by a variety of publications.

Thurmond has become a mainstay in the Ducks secondary, starting 37 of the last 38 games, and garnering some form of post-season honors in each of the last three seasons.

Last year, he finished tied for first in the Pac-10 with five interceptions despite missing time with injuries, and totaled 66 tackles and 13 pass breakups as well. In addition to his role in the secondary, Thurmond returned a team-high 21 kickoffs for 527 yards (25.1 avg. including a 91 yard return against Oklahoma State). In 2007, he finished second on the team with 103 tackles and five interceptions, while also breaking up a conference-high 23 passes.

At 6-0 180 pounds, Thurmond possesses an elite combination of size and speed (4.3). He is a true game-changer at cornerback who loves to bait quarterbacks into throwing his way (see 40 yard INT TD in Civil War). Thurmond can be left on an island against almost any receiver in the conference, making him the perfect Aliotti style defender. He has also demonstrated excellent run-stopping ability, which is a rarity at his position.

Thurmond enjoyed a particularly good spring even by his standards, and he’s looked sharp in fall practice as well. The West Covina (CA) native will be counted on to provide the Ducks D with a true shutdown cornerback in 2009.

The likely starter at CB alongside Thurmond will be senior Willie Glasper.

The experienced Glasper has played in 39 games (most of any player on defense) during his career as a backup CB and primary special teams contributor. Last season, he finished with 21 tackles, but he figures to increase that total quite a bit in 2009.

At 5-11 188 pounds, Glasper is a true cover-corner, with great speed (4.4) and polished technique. He breaks well on the ball and has good overall awareness. Glasper is not the dynamite athlete that Thurmond is, so teams may therefore attack his side of the field if he starts this season. Nonetheless, he is a gifted and experienced number-two caliber cornerback who appears up for the challenge.

The Pittsburg (CA) native was given 4-star recognition by both Rivals and Scout.com, while also garnering Parade All-American honors after a stellar prep career at De La Salle High School (CA). Glasper had a pelvic injury recently this fall, but he has looked 100% over the last few days of camp. His presence will be very important in the secondary, and he has a great chance to start in 2009.

Redshirt freshman Scott Grady and sophomore Anthony Gildon are also options at corner.

The 5-11 180 pound Grady spent last season with the scout team, and has impressed John Neal with his off-season progress. Grady has looked stronger, faster and more confident than the coaches anticipated, and he appears ready to contribute this season.

He plays with great anticipation and has the size to jam receivers (plays bigger than 5-11 180). He also has great ball skills and can help out on run support. The Tigard (OR) native will be a key reserve at corner this season.

The 6-1 175 pound Gildon appeared in nine games as a true freshman in 2007 (one tackle), and redshirted last season. He is a superior athlete with tremendous leaping ability (36.5 inch vertical), great speed (4.45), and impressive fluidity. His size should allow him to flourish in Aliotti’s physical defensive scheme, as he is perfect for press man-to-man defense. Rivals.com gave Gildon 4-star recognition while he was at Oaks Christian High School (CA).

The Simi Valley (CA) native should see considerable action in 2009.

Safeties

Besides Thurmond, senior T.J. Ward is the biggest superstar in this defensive backfield. The punishing free safety has made a habit of producing highlight-reel hits.

Last season, he led all Oregon tacklers with 101 stops (tied for fifth in conference) and also added eight pass breakups (2nd on team) and 5.5 tackles for loss on his way to honorable mention All-Pac 10. The former walk-on enters this season on a variety of pre-season all-conference teams.

At 5-11 201 pounds, Ward is an exceptionally powerful athlete, and he demonstrated his strength this off-season as a member of the Oregon Iron Club with a combined 1,083 pounds in the clean, squat, and bench press. He plays the free safety position like a true intimidator, using a combination of good speed (sub-4.5), excellent instincts and aggressive pursuit angles to blow up offensive plays at will.

The Antioch (CA) native will be one of the key performers on the defense this season.

Patrick Chung’s replacement at rover will be junior Talmadge Jackson III. Jackson has played in 26 straight games since arriving in Eugene as a true freshman in 2007. Last season, he totaled 30 tackles, six pass breakups, and two interceptions (3rd on team), while also starting at CB when Thurmond was injured against Boise State and Washington State. Additionally, he returned five kickoffs for 59 yards on special teams.

At 5-10 182 pounds, Jackson is a versatile athlete with great speed (sub-4.5) and excellent quickness. He’s a great fit for the rover position because of his ability to cover, play in the box, and contribute in nickel situations. His size may not suggest that he can play safety, but Aliotti believes he plays in space better than any other candidate at rover. Jackson has also practiced at corner, and could play there again if injuries mount in the secondary.

Regardless of where he plays, Jackson will be a primary contributor for the Ducks in 2009. The Murrieta (CA) native was limited to non-contact drills during spring because of injury, but he has responded nicely during the fall.

Junior Marvin Johnson will be Jackson’s main backup at rover. Last season, Johnson was a key reserve and special teams contributor, making 14 tackles and one fumble recovery in 11 games, but also missing a lot of time with an injury.

At 5-11 199 pounds, Johnson has a very good combination of size and speed, but also a history of knee problems. When healthy, he is one of the hardest hitters in the secondary and one of the best overall athletes on the team (reportedly throws the football 75 yards).

The Compton (CA) native must prove that he can stay healthy, as his presence is very important for the depth at safety.

Sophomore Javes Lewis should be a key backup for Ward at free safety. Lewis played in all 13 games as a redshirt freshman, accounting for 19 tackles and three pass breakups as a reserve DB. At 6-1 185 pounds, he is an explosive athlete who loves to hit, and could become a mainstay at safety once Ward graduates, but he is prone to giving up some big plays. For now, the Tustin (CA) native will likely play a limited role in the secondary, but he has a bright future with the program.

Other players competing for time are: seniors Titus Jackson and Pono Kam, junior Brian Butterfield, sophomore Will Wallace, freshmen Kenjon Barner (may spend time at RB) Tyrone Radford, and Brian Jackson

* Freshman Cliff Harris is still awaiting clearance from NCAA so his status is unclear, and freshman Avery Patterson is out with foot surgery. Neither player was listed on the latest fall roster.

My Take

Half of this Oregon secondary (Thurmond and Ward) is as good as any in the conference, but it is the other half that will determine the Ducks fate at the third level. It’s hard for me to imagine this unit without Byrd (started 37 consecutive games) and especially Chung (51 consecutive games started in a row; most in school history for UO defensive player). But, the show must go on in Eugene, and there are some capable replacements.

Obviously the headliner will be Thurmond, who has next-level ability and could even work his way into the first round of the draft this coming April if he has another strong year. There are very few playmaking corners like Thurmond, and it is a pleasure to watch him play.

His partner looks like it will be Glasper, who arrived at UO with great expectations and may finally get the chance to reach them. As mentioned earlier, I expect teams to attack Glasper early, but I also believe he has the cover skills necessary to handle it.

At safety, Ward should add a few more Sportscenter hits to his resume, while also continuing to be ultra-productive at FS. Aliotti defenses are known for flying all over the field, and Ward personifies that philosophy.

I am most interested in the rover position, where Talmadge Jackson is looking to replace a legend (coaches jokingly called the position “The Chung” for four years). Head coach Chip Kelly believes Jackson is very similar to Byrd, possessing the versatility to play corner and both safety spots. I agree, and that’s why I’m excited to see how he does this season.

There are certainly question marks within this Oregon secondary, and the answers could come in Boise, Idaho week one.

Ultimately, I expect the unit to generate a ton of turnovers as it has in the past, while also giving up some passing yards in the process.