UCLA Bruins (6-5) vs. USC Trojans (7-3)
Saturday, November 28, 7:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -13.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (49 – 19):

Thanks to Pete Carroll and Rick Neuheisel college football fans have been reintroduced to one of the most visually attractive rivalries in all of sports. Let the pageantry commence, as Powder Blue faces Cardinal Red in the Coliseum this Saturday!

Rivalry games are always intriguing regardless of the participants’ win-loss record, but this year’s edition of the City Championship looks more evenly matched than it has in a while. USC has struggled in virtually every phase of the game in recent weeks, while UCLA has steadily improved (albeit against far weaker competition). As I study this game, four areas stand out.

1. QB Play – Contrary to most “insiders” expectations at the start of the season, freshmen QBs Kevin Prince and Matt Barkley have produced very similar seasons. Barkley has completed 57.9 % of his passes while throwing for 2035 yards 11 TDs, 10 INTs in nine games. Prince counters with 1739 yards 6 TDs 5 INTs and a 57.6% completion percentage in nine games. Barkley may have a slight edge, but it seems fair to suggest that no team has a decided advantage at QB.

2. Turnover Margin – UCLA ranks 17th nationally in turnover margin at .73, while ‘SC ranks 79th nationally at -.30. This statistic can be vital to deciding the outcome of a game, so the Bruins hope the season trend continues.

3. Sacks – Despite the struggles of the ‘SC defense, Rocky Seto’s unit still ranks 3rd nationally in sacks (32). The UCLA o-line has looked better in recent weeks, but the Bruins still rank 85th nationally in sacks allowed (27). If ‘SC can consistently pressure Prince, the Trojans will have an excellent shot to win the game.

4. ‘SC run game versus UCLA run defense – amidst all the chaos for ‘SC this season Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford have played very well. The UCLA D ranks 64th nationally against the run, so ‘SC should be able to establish a ground game.

Regardless of what the uniforms say, I see two very evenly matched teams in this one. The UCLA defense is playing opportunistic football and I also like the Bruins special teams. But if WR Damian Williams is even close to healthy, the Trojans offensive attack becomes a completely different animal. Williams was recently cleared to play by doctors and he is a true difference maker in the passing and punt return game.

Ultimately, I believe the Trojans will do just enough to retain the Victory Bell in a very closely contested game.

Prediction: USC 27 – UCLA 23

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Akeem Ayers - Ayers has been fantastic in recent weeks, and I expect him to line up on the edges in certain situations to further boost the pass rush.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Stanley Havili - Havili has battled injury problems all year but he is still a dynamic playmaker for the offense. I expect him to have a bigger role this week.

Dave’s Take (50 – 18):

It’s been a pretty lopsided series over the past two decades with each side taking its turn as the dominant one; from 1991-1998, the Bruins won eight straight; from 1999-2008, the Trojans have won 9 of the 10. The lone exception, as USC fans will painfully remember, was in 2006, which cost the team a trip to the BCS Championship Game.

That, though, is what is missing from this year’s game; a team playing with something to lose. From 2003-2008, despite knowing they had a strangle-hold on the series, the USC Trojans and their fans were still anxious about the game against their pesky rival because a slip-up always meant potentially missing out on the Rose Bowl (or, in 2006’s case, the National Championship).

UCLA is already bowl eligible. USC is already out of Rose Bowl contention.

Yes, a UCLA win solidifies their bowl resume, and yes, a USC win keeps them in the running for a trip to the Holiday Bowl. But that’s just not as high-stakes as we’re used to.

So who comes out on top when the only motivatation is the purest type; pride and bragging rights? While they certainly haven’t inspired blind confidence this season, I can’t pick against USC in this spot.

While it is important to acknowledge how awful the Trojans’ defense has been, it’s also important to point out that the teams they’ve been torched by (Notre Dame, Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford) do all have top-notch offenses. UCLA ranks 88th in total yards and 90th in points scored; nearly identical, in fact, to the Arizona State offense that USC completely shut down in Tempe.

You will also remember however that that was a game that USC could have easily lost thanks to the outstanding play of ASU’s defense. UCLA’s defense is also capible of coming up big, and Kevin Prince may not gift-wrap the Trojans seven points like Danny Sullivan did on an ill-advised throw for a pick-6.

Because of UCLA’s defense, I’m not going to say it will be easy for the Trojans. I do however expect the defense to stymie UCLA’s offense all day, and I’m expecting them to be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder after getting embarassed at home against Stanford last time out.

And lastly, while I still give UCLA plenty of credit for their big win in Tennessee, it was the only win of their six over a team with a better-than-.500 record (barely at 6-5, and with @Kentucky looming, even the Vols may end up at 6-6). UCLA has played plenty of very good teams tough this year, but they’ve always proven to be a noticeable step behind when playing against top-notch teams.

I’m not ready to say that USC is no longer a top-notch team, and I’m not ready to put UCLA over that hump yet. If they prove me wrong on the field, though, all of Rick Neuheisel’s talk about the gap closing between the two schools won’t just be empty words anymore.

Prediction: USC 24 – UCLA 13

Last season, the Trojans did not produce a 1,000-yard rusher and still managed to finish with the 3rd most rushing yards in the Pac-10. The unit has everything a coach could ask for – speed, power, quickness, experience, youthfulness, explosion and perhaps most importantly; confidence. So how will Pete Carroll and Co. manage all of the talent? It won’t be easy, but most coaching staffs would love to have the same problem.

The closest thing the Trojans have to a feature back is senior Stafon Johnson. Johnson led the Trojans in rushing last season with 705 yards and nine touchdowns on 138 carries (5.1 YPC). For his career, he has amassed 1,395 yards and 14 touchdowns. Johnson also led SC’s punt return unit, fielding 33 punts for 305 yards (9.2 yards per return).

At 5-11 210 pounds, Johnson runs with a balanced mix of speed and power, but it is his vision that separates him from the rest of the crowded SC backfield. He is an intuitive runner who has an exceptional feel for the game. Johnson enters his final year having never rushed for 1,000 yards in a season, but likely would have done so at almost any other program in the country where the carries were easier to come by.

Stafon Johnson refuses to go down

Johnson is an elite inside runner, and has the patience to wear down a defense between the tackles. Combine that with his 4.4 speed, and the Trojans have one of college football’s most versatile runners. The Bellflower (CA) native has been making plays since his days at Dorsey High School in Los Angeles.

His stellar prep career was noticed by every recruiting service. Johnson was a Parade All-American in 2005 and Rivals.com gave him 5-stars and rated him the #2 running back of the 2006 recruiting class. The NFL is already buzzing about Johnson, and a productive senior season would only enhance his draft status. He enters fall camp primed for a big 2009 season.

The Trojans most electrifying athlete outside of safety Taylor Mays might be junior Joe McKnight. The elusive speedster from River Ridge (LA) arrived on the SC campus with incredibly lofty expectations. Many pundits believed he would immediately offset the loss of Reggie Bush, but injury issues have made his transition from high school to college a little tougher. Still, McKnight is one of the Pac-10’s brightest stars, possessing a game breaking skill set that only Jahvid Best can match within the conference.

Last season, McKnight finished second on the team in rushing with 659 yards and two touchdowns on 89 carries (7.4 YPC). His 7.4 yards per carry was the 4th best average in the country. He also caught 21 passes for 193 yards and one touchdown, and spent time returning kicks and punts.

When healthy, McKnight is an all-purpose threat that requires a defensive coordinator to design a game plan just for him. At 6-0 190 pounds, McKnight is not built to carry the ball 25 times a game, but he is the type of difference-maker that must touch the ball in multiple ways. On top of his rushing skills, he is a sure-handed receiver that can be used in the slot or out of the backfield as a pass catcher.

McKnight had a legendary prep career at John Curtis High School (LA). He led his team to a state championship in his senior year, and amassed 1,928 all-purpose yards with an incredible 22.2-yard average per touch during the season. He also won the state title for track in 2006 with a time of 10.4 seconds. The former five-star prospect was the #1 rated tailback of the 2007 class by Rivals.com. McKnight could have a breakout season in 2009, and should touch the ball quite a bit even with all of the other options.

Joe McKnight hurdles defenders

Redshirt junior C.J. Gable may be the forgotten man in this bottomless pit of rushing talent. Last season Gable played very well, running for 617 yards and 8 touchdowns on 107 attempts (5.8 YPC). For his career, the 6-0 200 pound back has run for 1,194 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Gable’s upright running style is a change of pace from McKnight and Johnson, and he uses he lengthy frame to slice through defenses at will. The Sylmar (CA) native is also a very talented kick returner, ranking 11th in school history with 662 yards for his career. Gable is yet another 5-star tailback and Parade-All American. Rivals.com rated him as the #3 athlete of the 2006 recruiting class. His size, strength, and vision compare favorably to Johnson and he enters 2009 as yet another one of the main rushing options for the USC coaches to utilize.

Junior Allen Bradford might be SC’s main short yardage back. At 5-11 235 pounds he is a bruising runner that can torment a defense with his power. After the transfer of former tailback Broderick Green, the role of power back rests with Bradford. Pete Carroll has praised Bradford for his leadership and patient demeanor. The San Bernardino (CA) native ran for 57 yards on only 14 carries with one touchdown.

His 2008 campaign was cut short after he underwent season-ending hip surgery. Bradford was originally recruited as a safety and has also spent time at fullback. While it will still be difficult to get carries, Bradford’s unique skill set may allow him to touch the ball more in 2009.

Rounding out the list of potential ball carriers for the Trojans are sophomore Marc Tyler, and redshirt freshman Curtis McNeal.

The 6-0 225 pound Tyler showed promise in limited action during 2008. He finished fourth on the team in rushing with 198 yards and one touchdown on 36 attempts (5.5 YPC), and caught a TD as well.

Tyler was rated right behind Joe McKnight as the #2 tailback of the 2007 recruiting class when he left Oaks Christian High School (CA). Rivals.com rated him as a 5-star talent and he too was a Parade All-American. He may not play much this year unless injuries mount, but Tyler has a very bright future in L.A.

Those close to the USC program are raving about redshirt freshman Curtis McNeal. The 5-8 190 pound Los Angeles native had a great spring and could develop into something very special one day. He has a rare combination of speed, quickness and vision despite his unconventional size.

Ironically, he was one of SC’s most unheralded recruits with only a 3-star rating from most recruiting services. Nonetheless, he is making it difficult for the coaches to ignore him even as a freshman. Carroll has plenty of talent ahead of McNeal, but don’t be surprised if the Venice (CA) High School standout finds a way to get into the game.

The Trojans will feature arguably the best fullback in the country in junior Stanley Havili. The Salt Lake City (UT) native can do it all as a blocker, receiver, and runner. He enters 2009 with 205 career rushing yards and two TDs, as well as 62 catches for 596 yards and eight TDs. Havili can be a mismatch out of the backfield, but is also an exceptional run blocker who should help pave the way for all six Trojan tailbacks this season. He will start at fullback for the third year in a row.

My Take

The backfield talent at USC is staggering. It’s not easy to manage so many superstars, and yet somehow Pete Carroll makes it work. This season they look deeper than ever. To put it all in perspective: a back like Marc Tyler could start at 95 percent of programs around the country, but he’s okay being 5th string for the Trojans. If you factor in a very good offensive line and a dominant fullback, this potent rushing attack should be scary good.

Expect Johnson and Gable to be the steady providers, with a healthy dose of explosion from Joe McKnight. Bradford may be perfect for third and short, and goal line situations. The other backs are insurance in case of injuries, but we could also see them if Carroll wants to get creative.

The running game should be the strength of the SC offense; what a great luxury to have for a young QB like Aaron Corp.