SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
San Diego, California
#23 Utah Utes (9-3) VS. Cal Bears (8-4)
Wednesday, December 23, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -3.0

Sam’s Take (54 – 22):

Prior to the start of the 2009 season many Cal fans believed the Bears would play in a bowl game involving a flower, but the Poinsettia Bowl? It has certainly been an up and down year in Berkeley, and Jeff Tedford would love for his team to end a tumultuous season with a quality win over Utah.

The Utes have been nothing short of remarkable in the postseason, as they will be looking to win their ninth bowl game in a row. Cal hasn’t been too shabby either, as the Bears are looking for their fifth straight bowl victory.

I haven’t been able to properly read Cal all season, so who am I to predict how they will fare in a seemingly even non-conference game? If the Bears come out like they did in the Big Game, Utah will be in for a long night. However, if Tedford’s squad plays like it did in Seattle, its safe to say the Pac-10 will be off to an 0-2 start in bowls for 2009.

I’m not convinced Cal will play with the kind of intensity necessary to beat a team like Utah. Expectations were so high for the Bears and playing on December 23 in San Diego isn’t good enough. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Utes jump out to an early lead behind the legs of 1,000-yard rusher RB Eddie Wide and the arm of talented (and improving) freshman QB Jordan Wynn.

Cal has more talent across the board, but that has been the case in many games this season. The Bears will need QB Kevin Riley to make good decisions and RB Shane Vereen to play like he did shortly after the Jahvid Best injury. But most importantly, the defense must show up and play with passion (unlike it did against U-Dub).

Something tells me the Bears will be sluggish in this one and by the time they wake up it will be a little bit too late.

Prediction: Utah 27 – Cal 24

Utah Player to Keep an Eye On: WR David Reed – Reed is a big time player who had over 1,000 yards receiving this season. The Bears secondary was suspect for most of the year (Cal finished 108th in pass defense) so he could make quite a splash in the box score.

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Tyson Alualu – Alualu is a dominant pass rusher (7.5 sacks) and he could make life miserable for a freshman QB like Wynn.

Dave’s Take (56 – 20):

Trying to figure Cal out this season (like many seasons before it) has been an act of complete futility. When they are on, they are capable of beating just about anyone, as we saw when they upset the red-hot Stanford Cardinal (in Stanford) in the Big Game. When they aren’t, they are a very mediocre and underacheiving football team.

At least with Utah we have an idea of what we are going to get. The Utes followed up their undefeated 2008 campaign with a very respectable 9-3 record in 2009, with the three losses coming to extremely tough teams on the road in Oregon, TCU, and BYU.

Then again, those were really the only tough games on Utah’s schedule, it isn’t like they aren’t beatable. But which Cal team shows up? Might as well flip a coin.

Short of flipping that coin, my guess is that Cal comes out on the losing end here. Oregon, USC, and Oregon State all proved to be examples of games that Cal SHOULD have been extremely pumped up for that they ended up falling terribly short in. Utah on the other hand I’m much more certain will bring their best, which wouldn’t be enough against Cal’s A game, but will be if the Bears continue to underacheive.

Prediction: Utah 28 – Cal 21

Cal Bears (8-3) vs. Washington Huskies (4-7)
Saturday, December 5, 3:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -7.0

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Although expectations were sky high for the 2009 Cal Bears, the season can still be a mild success. Cal’s losses have come to three ranked opponents (Oregon, OSU, USC) and a 10-win season is still very achievable.

But I’m sure Jeff Tedford doesn’t need to be reminded about how tough Husky Stadium can be for visiting teams. A four win Washington squad defeated USC and Arizona in Seattle, and the Dawgs are looking to end the year with another high quality win. Steve Sarkisian would love to finish his first season at U-Dub with positive momentum and a win over Cal could pay dividends on the recruiting trail.

Cal will be without Jahvid Best in the season finale, but the offense hasn’t missed a beat because of the brilliant running of Shane Vereen. Vereen has accumulated 352 rushing yards and four TDs in his last two games, and that could be especially bad news for a Husky defense that ranks ninth in the Pac-10 in run defense (76th nationally). I expect Vereen to have a big day, which should also open up the offense for QB Kevin Riley and the passing game.

Will this be QB Jake Locker’s last game in Seattle? There has been plenty of speculation about his future, and I’m sure he will want to put together a memorable performance Saturday just in case. I think Locker could be in for a huge day through the air, as the Bears rank 108th nationally in pass defense. There is plenty of talent in the UW receiving corps and the unit seems to elevate its play at Husky Stadium. I also expect the Pac-10’s most underrated player (RB Chris Polk) to have another productive game. Polk has quietly rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season, and he is good enough to challenge the Bears 23rd ranked (nationally) run defense.

The Huskies are extremely difficult to beat at home, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them pull the upset. Nevertheless, I believe the Bears have found a brand new identity since the injury to Best. Vereen is playing inspired football, and I think he will set the tone again on Saturday.

Cal edges Washington in an entertaining finale.

Prediction: Cal 34 – Washington 28

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: OL Mike Tepper – Tepper is the anchor of the Cal rushing attack and I expect the senior to play big in his final Pac-10 game.

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim – Te’o-Nesheim is also a senior, and this will be the last game of his career. The ultra-productive defensive end will be looking to exit U-Dub with a bang.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

Emotions will be running high this Saturday in Washington. Cal will be looking to end an overall disappointing regular season on a high note, and Washington will be looking to add one more huge win to their resume.

It’s hard to pick against Washington at home where they are 4-2 with losses only to LSU and Oregon. They clearly play at another level on both sides of the ball at home, and if indeed this is Jake Locker’s last game in a Husky uniform as many have speculated, he’ll be even more revved up to make a statement.

Even taking all that into consideration, though, I can’t pick against Cal here. They’ve been playing excellent football and coming up with some huge plays on both sides of the ball since losing Jahvid Best. Shane Vereen has been electric, and Cal has knocked off two straight ranked opponents in Arizona and Stanford.

Assuming both teams bring their best, which I expect them to, Cal has the edge in talent at this point and should pick up the win.

Prediction: Cal 35 – Washington 27

Cal Bears 8-3 Overall (5-3 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Cal 34 – Stanford 28

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

After disappointing showings against Oregon and USC earlier this season and than another big loss to Oregon State, it was looking like Cal’s once promising season was going to tailspin into a disastrous one.

Ironically enough, it took losing their emotional leader on and the off the field in Jahvid Best to wake this team up and finally get them playing at the level we all expected them to play at at the beginning of the year. The win over Arizona at Strawberry Canyon was impressive, but it paled in comparison to the huge win in the Big Game last Saturday in Stanford.

Not only were the Cardinal arguably the hottest team in football coming into the Big Game off of back-to-back huge wins over Oregon and USC, but they were also unbeaten at home on the season. Not only did Cal come in and beat them, but they beat them at their own game, playing a smash-mouth brand of football and controlling the physicality and the tempo of the game while winning the battles at the lines all afternoon.

While Kevin Riley had an effective day (17/31, 235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and the defense deserves a ton of credit for flustering Andrew Luck into one of the most ineffective games of his young career, it is hard to place the game ball in any other hands than those of Shane Vereen.

What’s the best way to keep Stanford’s dynamic offense off of the scoreboard? It starts with keeping them off the field. Once again, the defense deserves it’s share of credit for the time of possession being tilted in Cal’s favor (39:06 to 20:54), but Shane Vereen was a man possessed behind his big men up front. Vereen carried the ball 42 times, racking up just under 200 yards (193) and three touchdowns.

Clearly inspired by his friend and teammate Jahvid Best, Vereen set new career bests in carries and yards (topping career bests he had just set last week against Arizona) and has made it very clear that when Jahvid Best moves on to the next level, Cal’s backfield will be just fine.

A win over Washington would leave Cal with a 9-3 season and in a multi-team tie for either second or third place in the Pac-10. While it may not be the dream season Bears fans were hoping for, knocking a hated rival out of the Top 25 and winning the Big Game still has to feel pretty good.

Cal Bears (7-3) vs. Stanford Cardinal (7-3)
Saturday, November 21, 4:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Stanford -7.5

Sam’s Take (46- 18):

The 112th edition of the Big Game will kickoff at 4:30 pm on Saturday, and Stanford is pulling out all the stops in order to win back the Axe (Tiger Woods will be the Cardinal’s honorary captain). I’m sure Stanford fans will have one eye on the Oregon-Arizona game, as it will be going on concurrently, and imagine the scene on the Farm if the Cardinal and Wildcats win their respective games at around the same time!

As well as Jim Harbaugh’s team has played in recent weeks, it is important to remember that Cal has won six of the last seven in this series. It is also worth mentioning that the Bears have a lot to play for, as a win in the Big Game would keep Jeff Tedford’s club in the hunt for a third place finish in the Pac-10.

The Big Game will also have an impact on the Heisman Trophy race. Who would have thought before the season started that #7 in red would be on the verge of an invite to New York while #4 in white watches from the sideline? In a year where none of the usual suspects seem to want the trophy, Toby Gerhart’s stock is soaring. A big day rushing in the Big Game may impress voters enough to give him a realistic shot (although it would really help if Stanford can sneak into the Rose Bowl).

While I was impressed by Cal last week against ‘Zona, I don’t think Bob Gregory’s defense has the size to stop the powerful Cardinal rushing game. Right now I believe Stanford can run its power plays on any D in America, and even when you know its coming there is now way to contain it. Throw in a red hot Andrew Luck, and its easy to see why Stanford has scored 106 combined points in its last two high-profile games (UO, USC).

It wouldn’t surprise me if Cal scores in the high 20’s or low 30’s against Stanford, as QB Kevin Riley has played pretty well in his last few games and RB Shane Vereen is more than capable of carrying the running load. But I just don’t think 24-30 points is going to be enough to keep up with the powerful Cardinal.

I expect a competitive game in the first half, but then Stanford’s well-oiled offensive machine will take over.

Prediction: Stanford 40 – Cal 27

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: DB Bryant Nnabuife - Nnabuife was excellent in his first career start last week, and he will have to be even better this week in order to prevent Andrew Luck and the Stanford passing attack from establishing a rhythm.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Richard Sherman - I am assuming the Stanford offense will do its thing, but the defense will need to make a few plays too. Sherman is a true playmaking corner who loves to bait quarterbacks (as he did last week vs. ‘SC).

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

I knew the win over Oregon was no fluke. That said, after the massive workload that Gerhart had in that game, and the emotional overload of becoming bowl eligible, I thought the Cardinal would come out flat against USC.

Instead, they built on the effort, putting up 50+ for the second straight week in destroying the Trojans on their home turf.

Now, with the Big Game and a potential Rose Bowl bid on the line, why should we expect anything less than another fantastic effort?

I expect Cal to be at their very best this Saturday, too. While it has been a disappointing season in Berkeley, what better way to salvage it than to crush your hated rival’s shot at a Rose Bowl berth and Toby Gerhart’s shot at the Heisman in one fell swoop?

Should be a fun game to watch with plenty on the line for both sides, but if both teams are at their best, I just can’t see Stanford losing this one. They are playing at another level on offense right now, and the defense is feeding off of the energy as well. Cal won’t go down easy, but look for Stanford to take care of business in their last game of conference play.

Prediction: Stanford 41 – Cal 28

Cal Bears 7-3 Overall (4-3 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Cal 24 – Arizona 16

Next Week’s Opponent: @Stanford

I wasn’t sure what to expect out of Cal last Saturday, as it has been difficult to read this team all season. I was pleasantly surprised to see the Bears come out with more energy than I have seen all year, and it seems fair to suggest that Jahvid Best provided the extra inspiration.

This was a payback game for Jeff Tedford’s club, and not just for the beat down in Tucson last season. I’m sure I don’t have to remind Cal fans about the 2006 debacle (also in Tucson) that prevented a potential Rose Bowl birth. Saturday, it was Cal who may have shattered ‘Zona’s Rose Bowl hopes.

While there was a lot to like about this performance, I must first give a shout out to defensive coordinator Bob Gregory. Gregory has been taking a ton of heat in Berkeley, and I can understand why. After all, this is one of the most physically gifted defenses in the conference, but the unit has struggled for most of the year.

Arizona possesses one of America’s most potent offensive attacks, and the ‘Cats really hadn’t been contained since Nick Foles took over at QB. Yet somehow, Gregory’s D was able to overwhelm Arizona with absolutely tenacious physical play.

The defensive line was phenomenal, especially against a UA rushing attack that was averaging about 200 yards per game (Arizona ran for 73 yards vs. Cal).  Gregory’s 3-4 scheme successfully stymied Sonny Dykes quick passing attack, and for the first time all season, Nick Foles seemed to have happy feet on a couple of plays.

The second shout out goes to RB Shane Vereen (30 carries 159 yards 1 TD). Technically, Vereen may be a backup tailback, but his performance Saturday reinforced the fact that he could start for most programs in the country.

Up next for Cal is you know who. The Big Game is even bigger this season, as there is a lot on the line for the boys from Palo Alto. The Bears are ranked 19th nationally in run defense, but their biggest test of the season awaits. Can Cal stop #7 in red? Should be a fun game.

Arizona Wildcats (6-2) vs. Cal Bears (6-3)
Saturday, November 14, 4:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -3.0

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

Arizona is the only school in the Pac-10 that has never played in a Rose Bowl. With only four games left this season, the ‘Cats control their own destiny in the race to Pasadena. So is Mike Stoops team the real deal? A defining four game stretch will provide the answer (@Cal, Oregon, @ASU, @USC). Cal started the season with the belief that they would be in the hunt for a Pac-10 title in mid-November, but now the 6-3 Bears are just hoping for a solid bowl game.

Statistically, Arizona looks like the best team in the Pac-10. UA heads to Berkeley ranked 13th nationally in total offense and 17th nationally in total defense. Across the board, the Wildcats are a solidly built football team. Offensively they can run and pass, and defensively they can stop the run and the pass.

As I study this game, there is one particular match up that seems grossly in favor of ‘Zona. QB Nick Foles and the ‘Cats high-powered passing attack will be going up against a Cal defense that ranks 117th nationally in pass defense. While Cal CB Syd’Quan Thompson is an excellent defender, the rest of the secondary appears to be ripe for the picking so I expect Sonny Dykes to exploit the Bears defensive backs with quick passes (specifically receiver screens).

We will found out a lot about Cal’s resolve on Saturday. With RB Jahvid Best sidelined, RB Shane Vereen must once again prove why many consider him to be the best backup tailback in the Pac-10. Vereen has game-breaking ability, and if he can get going early that should open up the passing game for QB Kevin Riley. I think it will be critical for Jeff Tedford’s squad to start fast and ignite the home crowd; otherwise a repeat of last week’s game against Oregon State is likely.

While Cal certainly has the talent to win this game, I think Arizona is peaking just in time for a tough four game stretch. The ‘Cats have already proven they can beat a quality opponent on the road (OSU), and I expect another complete performance from Stoops team this week.

Prediction: Arizona 34 – Cal 27

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Ricky Elmore - Elmore leads UA with 7.5 sacks, and I expect him to be all over QB Kevin Riley.

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Covaughn DeBoskie - With Best out, DeBoskie becomes the second tailback in the rotation. The Bears coaching staff has a lot of confidence in the redshirt freshman, and he will provide a nice change of pace when Vereen is on the sideline.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

Heading into Cal will be no easy task for the Arizona Wildcats, and the Bears will be especially motivated to go out and play a great game for injured teammate and leader Jahvid Best.

The problem, though, is that motivation hasn’t really seemed to get the Bears anywhere this season.

Coming into the year as the favorite to knock off USC atop the Pac-10, the Bears seemed to have the talent and the drive to make this a special year. When they headed into Eugene, they were a road favorite. And they got completely demolished.

They had a chance for redemption, at home, against the USC Trojans in the very next game. Same result.

Against Oregon State, another quality opponent, they once again were completely blown out. On paper, this team has what it takes to compete with almost any team in the nation. On the field though, they lack… well, for lack of a better word, “it”.

Arizona has put together a pretty special season to this point, and I think they have both the talent and the mental toughness to make sure that this one doesn’t get away from them. It should be a good one, but Arizona prevails in the end.

Prediction: Arizona 38 – Cal 28

Cal Bears (5-2) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-3)
Saturday, October 31, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -6.5

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

As it currently stands, there is a logjam in the middle of the Pac-10 that includes four teams with two conference losses. This Saturday, both Cal and Arizona State will look to separate from that jam and jump back into the top tier of the conference. This will be a match-up of strength vs. strength as the explosive Cal rushing attack faces off against ASU’s talented defense.

While Jeff Tedford’s squad will not reach the lofty goals set at the beginning of the season, the team is still in position to win 10 games and go to a high quality bowl. This week should tell us a lot about how far the team has come since the disheartening losses to USC and Cal. For the Bears to win in Tempe, they must establish the run early. Stanford was able to set the tone physically against a Devils D that is used to pushing offenses around. Cal does not have a 240-pound bulldozer at running back, so the onus will fall on the o-line to be extra nasty up front.

Jeff Tedford has stated that his offense will need to be patient in the running game, and I agree. Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen may not bust the big runs early, but I believe there will be room for them to maneuver later in the game. QB Kevin Riley must also stay patient, as the Devils are likely to throw a lot of blitz packages at him early on. Assuming Riley can weather the ASU surge, he should be able to attack a relatively vulnerable secondary.

For ASU, this is a season-defining game. Two weeks ago, the Devils were riding high after a dramatic win over U-Dub. One week later, the defense looked defenseless and the “bench Danny Sullivan” sentiments were as prevalent as ever. A win this week would put ASU right back on the path to Bowl eligibility, but the Devils will have to be substantially better in all three phases than they were in Palo Alto. Cal allowed WSU to throw the ball all over the field last week, so Chris McGaha and the ASU receivers could have a big day (especially if Syd’Quan Thompson doesn’t play).

I expect both Cal’s running game and ASU’s defensive front seven to be outstanding this week. So what does that mean? It means the winner of the battle between the Bears defense and the Devils offense will probably win this game. I believe Cal will win that battle, and while I expect a pretty tight game, the Bears will leave Tempe with a solid road victory.

Prediction: Cal 28 – Arizona State 20

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Cameron Jordan - Jordan can be flat out unblockable at times, and the Arizona native will be extra motivated to have a big game Saturday.

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Ryan Bass - Dennis Erickson has hinted that Bass will get more carries this week, and he gives the Devils a home run threat every time he touches the ball.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

I keep thinking back to Cal’s disastrous stretch against USC and Oregon, and the game plan for both of those defenses was simple; pressure, pressure, pressure. With the box stacked up and a ton of bodies flying into the backfield, it was difficult for either of the running backs to get any sort of a rhythm going, and it also forced Kevin Riley into making plenty of mistakes.

ASU’s front seven just might have the ability to emulate that defensive game plan when UCLA and Washington State were unable to. Considering UCLA put up 26 points and WSU put up 17 points, it stands to reason that even ASU’s sub-par offense should be able to get into the low 20s in scoring. Can they win the battle against Cal’s offense?

For some reason, I get the feeling that they can and will. Cal has looked great in their last two games, but they looked great in the first three games against soft opponents too (and actually, that Minnesota game was tied heading into the 4th). This is arguably the best defense left on Cal’s schedule; if they can prove me wrong and solve it, this offense just might power their way to a 10-win season.

As for ASU, this might be the weakest defense left on their schedule. If the offense continues to flounder and put way too much pressure on the defense to win them games, and they fall in this one, the road to bowling will be a lot tougher.

Prediction: Arizona State 23 – Cal 20

Cal Bears 4-2 Overall (1-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Cal 45 – UCLA 26

Next Week’s Opponent: Washington State

A win’s a win, and a win full of explosive plays is always a fun one. Unfortunately, we’re going to have to wait a few more weeks before we figure out whether or not the Cal we saw through the first three games of the season is back, because I couldn’t tell if this game was the result of Cal’s explosiveness or UCLA just collapsing.

Sadly, I’m slightly leaning towards the latter. UCLA’s defense just isn’t anywhere close to as good as advertised this season, and all six of Cal’s touchdowns came on huge plays; Shane Vereen with a 42-yard run, Marvin Jones with a 42-yard reception, Jahvid Best with a 51-yard reception and a 93-yard run, Jones again with a 24-yard reception, and Mychal Kendricks with a 68-yard pick-6.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s great to see so many huge plays; but they also masked some issues. Jahvid Best’s day looks fantastic by the stats; 102 yards on 18 carries and 51 yards on two catches. But take away the 93 yard touchdown run (which was a phenomenal one, don’t get me wrong) and you are left with 17 carries for nine yards. Best also broke a nice 22-yard run, but for the vast majority of his carries, he was picking up little-to-no gain or a loss.

As the huge plays show, Best is still a home run threat even when he’s not at his best. But he just hasn’t been the consistent threat that I’ve grown used to seeing him be. Maybe Washington State will be the game that everything falls back into place.

The most troubling aspect of this game for the Bears was the defense. UCLA has been one of the worst offenses in Division I football this season, so for them to rack up 448 yards and 26 points was a surprise. This marks the third straight game that the Bears have given up 440+ yards (457 against USC and 521 against Oregon), a disturbing trend for a team coming into the season with what looked to be one of the conference’s best defenses.

My personal doubts aside, Cal got their road to redemption off on the right foot with a big win. With Washington State all but certainly making it two straight this Saturday, time will tell just how good (or bad) this Bears team can be.

Cal Bears 3-2 Overall (0-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: USC 30 – Cal 3

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Where to even begin…

We’ll start at the beginning of the season, when Cal was chosen to finish second in the conference almost unanimously by the media, and the Washington State Cougars were unanimously picked to finish in dead last.

Both teams have faced the USC Trojans and the Oregon Ducks over the last two weeks. The Cougars got completely crushed by a combined score of 79-12. The Bears, ironically enough, fared about the same; losing both games by a combined score of 72-6.

Keep in mind that the Cougars had to play both games on the road; Cal got one of them at home.

I’m not saying that Cal is as bad as Washington State, obviously; I’m merely pointing out how completely inexcusable the last two games have been. Blame falls everywhere; Jeff Tedford and the coaching staff as well as the players. Putting together two straight unmotivated and unprepared performances in the two biggest games of the season was embarrassing not only to the school, but to the conference as well.

Sure, I’m being harsh, and I don’t mean to take anything away from Oregon or USC. But the simple truth is, on paper, position-by-position, California is arguably the most talented team in the conference. On paper, they really don’t have any glaring weaknesses.

There is a reason why this team was picked to compete for and potentially win the Pac-10. There were national championship whispers and Jahvid Best Heisman Trophy discussions. The team has championship-level talent; and to underachieve so drastically is a massive disappointment.

The bye week couldn’t have come at a much better time for the Bears, who clearly need to re-group. Defenses are going to continue to send the house at Kevin Riley, and he is going to have to start making the plays to open up the running game for Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen again. The defense needs to regain its confidence and start making plays after giving up nearly 1000 yards over the last two games.

But the concern moving forward for Cal is finding some reason to get excited about the rest of the season. With over half the season still remaining, Cal is all but eliminated from winning the conference, needing to run the table from here on out AND have Oregon and USC both lose three in-conference games. If this team couldn’t get motivated to show up and play when they had so much on the line, what reason do they have now?

It will be very interesting to see how Cal responds for the remainder of the season. They have the talent to win every game from here on out, and finish with a respectable 10-2 record which could be enough for a trip to the Holiday Bowl. But do they have the mental toughness?

They have an extra week to find it.

USC Trojans (3-1) vs. Cal Bears (3-1)
Saturday, October 3, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -5.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (22 – 10):

A few weeks ago, I was certain that Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit, Chris Fowler and the rest of College Gameday would be in Berkeley this Saturday for an epic west coast showdown with national championship implications. Oh well.

While the Trojans and Bears will not enter this game undefeated, the stakes are still very high. Both programs entered the 2009 season with high expectations, and Saturday’s loser will likely see those expectations go unfulfilled.

Perhaps no team in the country has faced more adversity in 2009 than USC. The Trojans have been dealing with unfortunate circumstances since fall camp, and Stafon Johnson’s terrible weightlifting accident has been especially difficult on the team.

On the field, Pete Carroll’s club continues to be a work in progress, at least on offense. ‘SC played an extremely sloppy three quarters against Wazzu, and the Trojans must raise the intensity level considerably this Saturday.  For ‘SC to win, more may be asked of Matt Barkley in the passing game, because the Bears D is typically strong against the run (with the exception of last week’s debacle in Eugene). I still expect a few big plays from Joe McKnight and the rest of the backs, but I believe Barkley’s performance will be the biggest key to victory for USC.

For the Bears, QB Kevin Riley must establish a rhythm early. His accuracy issues are worrying, so he needs to gain some confidence on the first few drives. Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen were rendered useless last week largely because of a poor performance from the o-line. The line must be more physical this week, or else Cal’s two-headed monster at tailback will continue to struggle.

USC never losses the big game, but I believe Cal is due to finally win one. The Bears certainly have their issues, but they also have the talent to beat SC. I expect Jeff Tedford’s team to play inspired football in front of an energized home crowd at Memorial Stadium, where Cal has not lost since 2007 (of course the last loss was to the Trojans). While you can never count out a Pete Carroll-led team in a game like this, I see the Bears pulling out a nail-bitter.

Prediction: Cal 27 – USC 24

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Allen Bradford - With Johnson out, Bradford may be the new red zone back. He looked very good against WSU last week, and could provide the thunder to McKnight’s lightning.

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Anthony Miller - Riley needs to be able to complete easy passes and Miller is a big target with solid hands.

Dave’s Take (25 – 7):

Before the season started, many were projecting this game out to be the game of the year in the Pac-10. Cal was almost unanimously rated as the top contender to end USC’s dominance over the conference, and this was going to be USC’s first major test in the conference after bullying over the Washington schools.

Hmm, a lot can change in a month, can’t it? For Cal, all systems appeared to be go heading into the Oregon game. For USC, coming off of a big win over Ohio State, people were writing off the offensive troubles they had as an indication of how well the Buckeyes played, not an indication of offensive struggles.

And yet here we are. Both teams have major concerns, and more importantly, both teams already have a conference loss. So for me, I honestly can’t drive myself crazy trying to figure out who is more dejected or motivated or anything like that. I think it is safe to call it a wash as far as motivation and struggles are concerned, and focus strictly on the game itself.

And it is a game that I believe the Trojans will win. Cal will not come close to repeating the poor effort they had in Oregon, but that game did leave me doubting that they can dig deep and come up big in a big game. We’ve seen USC do it for years (it’s the LITTLE games they have problems with), and we’ve already seen them do it this season against Ohio State.

Pete Carroll and USC own this series, and I believe the defense will guide them to a win here; assuming, of course, that Joe McKnight can hold on to the football.

Prediction: USC 27 – Cal 17