Only one team in the history of Pac-10 Men’s Basketball has gone winless in conference play: the 2007-08 Oregon State Beavers (6-25, 0-18 in Pac-10). That’s right, just two years ago the folks in Corvallis watched in horror as their team wound up in the wrong section of the record book.

The season was so dreadful, that former head coach Jay John became the first coach in the history of OSU athletics to be fired mid-season (John was let go after 6-12, 0-6 record). Interim head coach Kevin Mouton could fare no better, and athletic director Bob De Carolis knew he needed to hit a home run with his next hire or the program might not recover. A handful of big name coaches immediately tuned the job down, likely due to the enormous rebuilding project that was necessary.

While Oregon State may have missed out on the “name” coaches, De Carolis hit a monstrous home run nonetheless. Forget that Craig Robinson is Barack Obama’s brother-in-law (though recruiting has certainly been affected in a positive way), as more importantly, he is one heck of a basketball coach. Needless to say, what Robinson did last season with OSU was nothing short of remarkable. The Beavers finished the season 18-18 (7-11 in Pac-10) and won the CBI championship.

So the question is, can Robinson’s Beavers take the next step this season? Many prognosticators believe a top-3 conference finish is a realistic possibility, as virtually every major contributor from last season returns (G Ricky Claitt being the exception). If the gifted freshman class is as good as advertised, this OSU team will have a real chance to meet those high expectations.

Impact Superstar: G Calvin Haynes

The explosive Haynes is OSU’s leading returning scorer (13 PPG), and he appears primed for an even bigger season in 2009-10. During the off-season, Haynes underwent minor knee surgery, but after playing in the exhibition against Southern Oregon he appears to be moving around at full strength.

The 6-2 junior guard from Reseda (CA) was technically used in a reserve role for the majority of last season (played in 30 games, 5 starts), but he still averaged 29.7 minutes per game off the bench. I believe his role on this OSU team is somewhat comparable to Manu Ginobili’s role with the San Antonio Spurs. When Haynes establishes a rhythm, he can score in bunches, and I have no doubt he will match or exceed his numbers from last year.

Needs To Have A Big Year: F/C Roeland Schaftenaar

No player fits Craig Robinson’s Princeton style offense better than Schaftenaar. The 6-11 Dutchman from Utrecht, Netherlands plays the point-center in Oregon State’s system, as that role maximizes his exceptional passing and ball-handling skills. Last season, Schaftenaar finished with 10.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.3 APG, and he was named MVP of the CBI Tournament after averaging 13.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists in six games.

The skilled senior is big enough to do damage in the post (6-11 240 pounds), but also has the shooting touch to consistently score from behind the arc. In addition to his offensive production, he is one of the keys to Robinson’s stifling 1-3-1 zone defense.

Schaftenaar is one of my favorite players in the conference, and I believe he will have a fantastic senior season. If he can increase his rebounding production a bit this season, I think he will have a real shot at all-conference honors.

Potential Impact Newcomer: G Roberto Nelson

Nelson is a program-changing recruit, but the NCAA Clearinghouse has yet to rule him eligible. Craig Robinson is confident that the matter will be resolved soon, but Nelson is missing valuable practice time with the team. Assuming the ultra-talented freshman is cleared, OSU will have the services of one of America’s best young combo-guards.

Nelson can score in a variety of ways, and he has the vision to setup teammates for open shots. Rivals, Scout, and ESPN.com ranked the 6-3 freshman from Santa Barbara (CA) as one of top 100 overall players of the 2009 recruiting class.

My Take

Oregon State is going to win a lot of games in the next few years, and the rest of the Pac-10 knows it. But how many are realistic this season? After all, the Beavers are still a work in progress, and while the 1-3-1 zone was a huge hit last year, the offensive explosion has yet to develop.

Ultimately, I believe the experience of this Beaver squad (Hayes, Schaftenaar, the Tarver brothers etc.) will be the reason Craig Robinson gets his team to 20 wins. This is a very deep OSU squad, especially with so many talented freshmen ready to make an impact (Nelson, Cunningham, Brandt, Burton). I think the offense will make big strides, and Gil Coliseum will be rocking all year. While I don’t quite expect a top three finish in the Pac-10, I do see a team that will be on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament birth.

Projected Pac-10 Finish: 4th Place

Coach Craig Robinson brought something the team desperately needed after two decades of bottom dwelling; a sense of pride and a sense of responsibility.

This all started at Pac-10 media day before the start of last season, when he told the media that his team would have morning workouts that began at 5:30am. When asked what would happen to players who didn’t show up, Robinson simply replied, “No one is making them come here. If they don’t want to be here, they don’t have to be.” This mentality and work ethic was engrained in his players since his arrival, and it has shown in their performance on the court.

Coach Craig Robinson addresses the media

He turned a team that had players regarded as “thugs” for challenging opposing players to fights in the parking lot after games to a respectable group of blue-collared hard working players.

The team had seven players average better than five PPG, showing that they have a team-first mindset in spreading the scoring around. Robinson’s Princeton style offense fit his players and it showed dramatically in the improvement of their record from just a year ago. His 1-3-1 zone defense baffled opposing teams and frustrated coaches trying to put together an offensive game plan against him.

Robinson has amassed a solid recruiting class for the upcoming season and there is no reason to believe under his leadership that this Beaver team won’t continue to improve. Returning players include leading scorer Calvin Hayes, center Roeland Schaftenaar and guards Seth and Josh Tarver. With a year of competitive basketball under their belts, these players should give the team some much needed experience when games are close at the end of the second half.

Looking forward to the 2009-2010 season:

Departures

Senior Guard Rickey Claitt (Eligibility) – After two years with the Beavers, Claitt has run out of eligibility. Claitt averaged 7.4 PPG and 2.5 assists last season, and had been a good contributor to the team since transferring from Mineral College in Park Hills, Mo.

Senior Guards Joey McConnell/Kyle Bjornstad (Eligibility) – Two depth guards that saw virtually no playing time in 2008-09

Arrivals

Freshman Guard Roberto Nelson, 6-3 180 pounds (Recruit) – Oregon State’s most prized recruit, receiving a 4-star prospect rating at both Rivals and Scout. One of the better combo-guards in the country, Nelson has a ton of upside as both a shooter and a playmaker. Chose Oregon State over other Pac-10 schools including USC, Arizona, and Washington.

Freshman Guard Jared Cunningham, 6-3 170 pounds (Recruit) – Another highly rated recruit out of San Leandro High of the bay area. Cunningham averaged 20.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.0 steals per game in his senior season.

Freshman Center Joe Burton, 6-7 270 pounds (Recruit) – A massive center who’s physical frame has drawn comparisons to LSU’s Glen Davis. He put up strong numbers in his senior campaign with West Valley High School in Hemet, CA, averaging 14.8 PPG and 16.4 RPG. He knows how to hit the glass, an area the Beavers could use improvement in.

Freshman Center Angus Brandt, 6-10 210 pounds (Recruit) – Native of Sydney, Australia. Brandt features a strong face-up game and can also shoot from mid-range fairly well, which should provide some good versatility down low.

Freshman Forward Rhys Murphy, 6-7 185 pounds (Recruit) – Another Sydney Australia native, Murphy has the size of a forward but can handle the ball like a guard. He has a good range jumper and a decent 3-ball as well. Coach Robinson will definitely be able to find a place for Murphy in his offense

My Take

Coach Craig Robinson has done an unbelievable job with this Beaver team, but they are still maturing and finding their identity. This is the first time in a long time the team will head into a season with actual expectations, and until they prove they can handle the pressure of being expected to win games, don’t count on them making the post season this year. They will continue to improve and could be a threat to win Pac-10 titles in the future under Robinson, but that is still likely beyond the 2009-2010 season.