EMERALD BOWL
San Francisco, California
Boston College Eagles (8-4) VS. #24 USC Trojans (8-4)
Saturday, December 26, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -7.0

Sam’s Take (55 – 22):

This year’s Emerald Bowl features two programs that entered the season with entirely different expectations. On December 26th, both USC and BC will meet in San Francisco sporting 8-4 records.

For the Trojans, this game represents the last chapter of a forgettable season. Pete Carroll is a master motivator, but even he must have trouble getting motivated for a second-tier bowl after 7 BCS appearances in a row.

Meanwhile, the folks of Chestnut Hill have to be thrilled with how this season has gone. Sure Boston College entered 2009 with a 10-year bowl streak, but extending that streak to 11 was no sure thing considering the turmoil within the program (head coach fired early in year, QB transferred out of program, star player diagnosed with cancer). First year head coach Frank Spaziani has done a fantastic job with this BC team and a win over a program like ‘SC would be icing on the cake.

While I certainly think the motivation edge lies with Boston College, the talent advantage is just as tilted in favor of the Trojans. In my opinion this bowl will be a success for ‘SC if QB Matt Barkley starts looking like a sophomore. It’s fair to say Barkley has struggled in 2009, so it’s critical for the future of the program that he plays well after an extra month of practice. BC is very good against the run (15th nationally in run defense) so Barkley and the passing game may be called upon more than normal.

While I can see the Eagles holding down the Trojans offense, I do not believe the BC offense will fare well against an ‘SC defense that is still full of elite talent. Boston College ranks 97th nationally in total offense and that won’t cut it against Pete Carroll’s squad.

I like ‘SC to win in semi-comfortable fashion.

Prediction: USC 27 – Boston College 13

Boston College Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Montel Harris – Harris is an excellent tailback who has rushed for over 1,300 yards and 13 TDs in 2009. The Trojans had trouble with talented tailbacks this season (Gerhart, Rodgers, James) so BC will be looking to get Harris going early.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Damian Williams – This will be Williams final game for ‘SC and I’m sure he will want to go out with a bang. He has 821 yards receiving this season, so a big day could result in a 1,000-yard season (and a good resume builder for the NFL Draft).

Dave’s Take (56 – 20):

Generally in a game like this I’d be giving a very strong look at a Boston College upset based on the motivation factor; BC will be thrilled at an oppotunity to play against a team like USC, while USC will be bummed to even be here and could be caught sleeping. Honestly though, I’m not really buying that in this game.

In fact, I’d argue that this game might have more motivation for the Trojans than two of the last three Rose Bowl games.

Despite dropping to Oregon State back in the 2006 season, USC was still in position to play for a national championship that year until their plans were foiled by rival UCLA. Last season, USC once again lost to Oregon State, but from that point forward they were unbeaten while putting together one of the best season-long defensive efforts of all time. Both of these years, the Rose Bowl felt like a consolation to the National Championship, which in ‘06 they let slip away, and in ‘08 they felt they deserved, but so goes the BCS.

This year? No near-misses. The Washington upset looked like this year’s annual stumbling block for the Trojans, but it was in fact just a sign of things to come; they were flat out out-played and dominated by Oregon, and then again on their home turf by Stanford. To add insult to injury, everything shaped up for them to secure a Holiday Bowl berth with a home win over Arizona; and once again, they fell short.

If this team has any pride whatsoever, motivation should NOT be an issue. Preseason expectations are long gone, and in their place should be a desire to take out the frustrations of a lackluster 2009 campaign on a very beatable opponent.

Considering how great of a job Pete Carroll does at preparing and motivating for bowls, I think he can get close to a best effort out of the team, which should be more than enough.

Prediction: USC 31 – Boston College 13

Arizona Wildcats (7-4) vs. USC Trojans (8-3)
Saturday, December 5, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -7.0

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

If Oregon is able to beat Oregon State in the War for the Roses, the winner of this Saturday’s game between USC and UA will likely head to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. Each team could finish as high as second in the conference standings or as low as sixth. Although the Trojans haven’t lost to Arizona in nine years, the series has been closely contested in recent years (last two meetings have been decided by a touchdown).

I like USC in this game for two main reasons. First, the Trojans can still finish with 10 wins this season and I believe that would provide the program with positive momentum heading into the off-season. After last week’s ending against UCLA, ‘SC seems to have found an emotional spark, and I’m sure Pete Carroll will have his team ready for the season finale. Second, the ‘Cats will be without RB Nic Grigsby for yet another game. Last week against Arizona State, it was clear that the ‘Cats missed their home run threat, and the offense just isn’t the same without him.

The Trojans defense is starting to make plays again, and ‘Zona QB Nick Foles will be less than 100%. I expect ‘SC to contain RB Keola Antolin, Greg Nwoko and the rest of the ‘Cats running attack, which should allow the Trojans D to pin its ears back and attack Foles.

The normally stout UA defense has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight games, and I expect RB Joe McKnight to make it four. Once McKnight gets going, Matt Barkley, Damian Williams and the ‘SC passing attack should have plenty of opportunities.

Arizona has led in the fourth quarter of every conference game this season, and I have no doubt Mike Stoops’ club will keep this one close. But in the end, I expect USC to pull away late for another one score victory over the ‘Cats.

Prediction: USC 31 – Arizona 24

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Devin Ross - Ross is a shutdown corner capable of eliminating an opposition’s feature receiver. Damian Williams will be his biggest test of the season.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Anthony McCoy - McCoy figures to be closer to 100%, and I expect him to have a big day against an undersized UA defense.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

Gone is USC’s aura of invincibility, and in its place is a lack of certainty on both sides of the ball.

The defense had an outstanding game against the Bruins, but than again, UCLA doesn’t have a particularly high-powered offense. When going up against the Pac-10’s three top offenses in total yards in Stanford, Oregon State, and Oregon, USC has given up 55, 36, and 47 points, respectively.

Arizona ranks fourth in the conference in total yards.

Can USC’s defense build on the momentum of the UCLA game, or will it fall back into giving up points to another high-powered attack? Despite Arizona’s solid defense and USC’s less-than-stellar offense, I think the Trojans have gotten healthy enough on offense to put up some points in this one; but if the game turns into a shootout, I don’t love USC’s chances.

I don’t think it will turn into a shootout, though. I get the feeling that USC will be the more focused team in this one playing their third straight home game and potentially for a Holiday Bowl berth. Arizona, meanwhile, is coming off of the intense low of losing to the Ducks at home to end their chance at a Rose Bowl to the intense high of beating hated rival ASU in the closing seconds. I just don’t know how much more they have to give in this regular season, and they’ll nead to be at their best to beat USC at the Coliseum, even if this is an off year for the Men of Troy.

Prediction: USC 28 – Arizona 21

UCLA Bruins (6-5) vs. USC Trojans (7-3)
Saturday, November 28, 7:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -13.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (49 – 19):

Thanks to Pete Carroll and Rick Neuheisel college football fans have been reintroduced to one of the most visually attractive rivalries in all of sports. Let the pageantry commence, as Powder Blue faces Cardinal Red in the Coliseum this Saturday!

Rivalry games are always intriguing regardless of the participants’ win-loss record, but this year’s edition of the City Championship looks more evenly matched than it has in a while. USC has struggled in virtually every phase of the game in recent weeks, while UCLA has steadily improved (albeit against far weaker competition). As I study this game, four areas stand out.

1. QB Play – Contrary to most “insiders” expectations at the start of the season, freshmen QBs Kevin Prince and Matt Barkley have produced very similar seasons. Barkley has completed 57.9 % of his passes while throwing for 2035 yards 11 TDs, 10 INTs in nine games. Prince counters with 1739 yards 6 TDs 5 INTs and a 57.6% completion percentage in nine games. Barkley may have a slight edge, but it seems fair to suggest that no team has a decided advantage at QB.

2. Turnover Margin – UCLA ranks 17th nationally in turnover margin at .73, while ‘SC ranks 79th nationally at -.30. This statistic can be vital to deciding the outcome of a game, so the Bruins hope the season trend continues.

3. Sacks – Despite the struggles of the ‘SC defense, Rocky Seto’s unit still ranks 3rd nationally in sacks (32). The UCLA o-line has looked better in recent weeks, but the Bruins still rank 85th nationally in sacks allowed (27). If ‘SC can consistently pressure Prince, the Trojans will have an excellent shot to win the game.

4. ‘SC run game versus UCLA run defense – amidst all the chaos for ‘SC this season Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford have played very well. The UCLA D ranks 64th nationally against the run, so ‘SC should be able to establish a ground game.

Regardless of what the uniforms say, I see two very evenly matched teams in this one. The UCLA defense is playing opportunistic football and I also like the Bruins special teams. But if WR Damian Williams is even close to healthy, the Trojans offensive attack becomes a completely different animal. Williams was recently cleared to play by doctors and he is a true difference maker in the passing and punt return game.

Ultimately, I believe the Trojans will do just enough to retain the Victory Bell in a very closely contested game.

Prediction: USC 27 – UCLA 23

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Akeem Ayers - Ayers has been fantastic in recent weeks, and I expect him to line up on the edges in certain situations to further boost the pass rush.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Stanley Havili - Havili has battled injury problems all year but he is still a dynamic playmaker for the offense. I expect him to have a bigger role this week.

Dave’s Take (50 – 18):

It’s been a pretty lopsided series over the past two decades with each side taking its turn as the dominant one; from 1991-1998, the Bruins won eight straight; from 1999-2008, the Trojans have won 9 of the 10. The lone exception, as USC fans will painfully remember, was in 2006, which cost the team a trip to the BCS Championship Game.

That, though, is what is missing from this year’s game; a team playing with something to lose. From 2003-2008, despite knowing they had a strangle-hold on the series, the USC Trojans and their fans were still anxious about the game against their pesky rival because a slip-up always meant potentially missing out on the Rose Bowl (or, in 2006’s case, the National Championship).

UCLA is already bowl eligible. USC is already out of Rose Bowl contention.

Yes, a UCLA win solidifies their bowl resume, and yes, a USC win keeps them in the running for a trip to the Holiday Bowl. But that’s just not as high-stakes as we’re used to.

So who comes out on top when the only motivatation is the purest type; pride and bragging rights? While they certainly haven’t inspired blind confidence this season, I can’t pick against USC in this spot.

While it is important to acknowledge how awful the Trojans’ defense has been, it’s also important to point out that the teams they’ve been torched by (Notre Dame, Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford) do all have top-notch offenses. UCLA ranks 88th in total yards and 90th in points scored; nearly identical, in fact, to the Arizona State offense that USC completely shut down in Tempe.

You will also remember however that that was a game that USC could have easily lost thanks to the outstanding play of ASU’s defense. UCLA’s defense is also capible of coming up big, and Kevin Prince may not gift-wrap the Trojans seven points like Danny Sullivan did on an ill-advised throw for a pick-6.

Because of UCLA’s defense, I’m not going to say it will be easy for the Trojans. I do however expect the defense to stymie UCLA’s offense all day, and I’m expecting them to be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder after getting embarassed at home against Stanford last time out.

And lastly, while I still give UCLA plenty of credit for their big win in Tennessee, it was the only win of their six over a team with a better-than-.500 record (barely at 6-5, and with @Kentucky looming, even the Vols may end up at 6-6). UCLA has played plenty of very good teams tough this year, but they’ve always proven to be a noticeable step behind when playing against top-notch teams.

I’m not ready to say that USC is no longer a top-notch team, and I’m not ready to put UCLA over that hump yet. If they prove me wrong on the field, though, all of Rick Neuheisel’s talk about the gap closing between the two schools won’t just be empty words anymore.

Prediction: USC 24 – UCLA 13

Ding Dong’ the merry-oh, sing it high, sing it low.
Let them know
The Wicked Witch is dead!

For some reason, this song was running through my head as I watched Stanford pummel USC.

For Trojans fans, it has been a fantastic ride for the last seven years. So fantastic, in fact, that Trojan fans are completely guilty of taking it for granted. Every single one of them (myself, included).

Virtually every hiccup along the way has cost USC a trip to the National Championship, which in turn turned the Rose Bowl into a consolation prize of sorts. USC fans are always disappointed to “only” win the Pac-10 and “only” go to the Rose Bowl.

And that’s one of the reasons why fans around the conference have hated the USC Trojans and their fans for the better part of a decade now, and as Stanford drove the final nail into the coffin that Washington had opened and Oregon had closed, there is plenty of reason for the rest of the conference to celebrate.

A friend of mine asked me, “Dave, you know your Pac-10; Is USC done for? I mean, I know they are this season, but are they done for good?”

I’m surprised at how many people are living in the moment so badly that they are actually asking this question. NO, USC isn’t done for good. They still have one of the best coaches in the country and a never-ending stable of 4 and 5-star talent. They will be a serious contender for the Pac-10 title next year, as well as the years to come.

The beauty, though, is that they won’t be the only serious contender. 2009 will not mark the beginning of the end of USC as a football power; but it will mark the end of their stranglehold over the rest of the conference.

PAC-10 ON THE RISE – FIVE TEAMS IN THE TOP 25

Many college football fans are going to continue to be ignorant and disregard the Pac-10.

They will continue to laugh off the conference for no reason at all, and ignore evidence of its strength. They will continue to hold the ridiculous double standard that when SEC teams beat each other up (which has been non-existent this year), it is an indication of how strong the conference is, but when the Pac-10 beats itself up, it is an indication of how weak the conference is. How does this even begin to make sense?

Of course, if you are one of these people, you are scoffing and preparing your “LOL PAC-10 TEH SUX” comment. Good for you.

But for the more reasonable, it is hard to ignore that the Pac-10 is on the rise.

Perhaps the strongest evidence of the Pac-10’s strength is the amount of BCS ranked teams it has. Heading into this weekend, the Pac-10 currently has 20% of the teams in the BCS top 25 with five; #11 Oregon, #17 Stanford, #18 USC, #19 Oregon State, and #25 California. The ACC and Big 10 each have four, the SEC, Big East, and Mountain West have three, the Big 12 has two, and the WAC has one.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Pac-10 is the only conference that schedules only three out of conference games. They actually have to play a true round robin, and don’t have the opportunity to dodge big conference opponents or schedule an extra softy like other teams do.

TEAM-BY-TEAM, EVERYONE IS GETTING BETTER

What impresses me most about the Pac-10 this season is that as great and deep as the conference has proven to be this season, from the looks of it, it is only going to get better.

1-6:

Oregon – Still in control of their own destiny atop the Pac-10, Oregon has steam-rolled through most of their opponents, including USC and Cal. Their two losses have come against very good ranked opponents; and they’d love to have the Boise State game back as that continues to look more and more like an anomaly. The Mike Belotti to Chip Kelly transition was seamless, and with a fantastic and innovative system in place on both sides of the ball, Oregon will be a power for years to come. They have both Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James returning next year, and this was the year for the offensive and defensive lines to rebuild; both should be even stronger in 2010.

Stanford – Their late surge has given them back-to-back wins over conference powerhouses in Oregon and USC as well as a chance of a trip to the Rose Bowl if the cards fall right. Jim Harbaugh has turned this team around in a hurry, and they have taken on his personality as a hard-nosed physical team that never stops working. This was supposed to be the year to break in Andrew Luck, but he has already emerged as a star at the quarterback position. He will likely be even better next season, and Harbaugh’s excellent ability to recruit will be even easier after the display the Cardinal have put on over the last few weeks.

Oregon State – Year in and year out, Mike Riley churns out one of the most consistently strong teams in the Pac-10. The Beavers have finished in the Top 25 for three straight years, and from the looks of it will keep that streak alive here in 2009. Their excellent post-September play (as always) has put them in a position to take at least a share of the Pac-10 title with a win over their rival Ducks. Mike Riley is one of the best in the country at recruiting and developing players into his system, and there is no reason to believe the Beavers won’t continue to be a threat to make noise in the conference for as long as he’s at the helm.

Arizona – Hard to believe Mike Stoops was on the hot seat not too long ago. With the help of Sonny Dykes and the emergence of Nick Foles at QB, the Wildcats have an electrifying offense. They also have an extremely fast and talented defensive unit. With Oregon and USC still ahead, the path to the Rose Bowl is a difficult one, but it isn’t out of the question. And even if the ‘Cats do fall short this season, the valuable experience that they are gaining from playing meaningful conference games in November will pay huge dividends in creating a championship atmosphere next year and beyond.

USC – Remarkably, the once invincible Trojans find themselves staring at a potential Poinsettia or Emerald Bowl berth. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Trojans with an inexperienced quarterback and a defense that was almost entirely turned over from last season, but we refused to believe that it would be. Tons of injuries on offense didn’t help, either. But while the Trojans may be down and out this year, they will be right back in the thick of things next year. And for the first time in seven years, they won’t have the target on their back. It should be a lot of fun to see how Pete Carroll rallies the troops next season and beyond now that USC’s aura of invincibility is gone.

Cal – Hard to consider this year anything but a disappointment considering the high hopes coming in. On paper, Cal was right up there with USC among the most talented teams in the country. Jeff Tedford has done an outstanding job recruiting, and while the Bears haven’t been able to get over the hump yet, they seem to be an annual threat to do so. Every year we hype Cal up as one of the conference’s top teams and they end up falling short; they strike me as one of those teams that as soon as we all decide to finally count them out, that will be when it all comes together and they catch everyone off guard.

7-9:

UCLA – The fact that UCLA is the 7th or 8th best team in this conference is about as good of an indicator of the Pac-10’s strength as anything else. Yes, they have five losses; but all to the teams listed above, proving only that they aren’t quite in that tier yet. The Bruins did go into Tennessee with a redshirt freshman quarterback and take that game, and they also dominated what has turned out to be a pretty decent Kansas State team that beat Kansas a few weeks ago. Rick Neuheisel has been stockpiling great young talent, and this team is clearly going in the right direction; they just need to put it all together. A win over Arizona State or USC would make them bowl eligible, too.

Arizona State – Possessing arguably the best defense in the Pac-10, ASU has had a frustrating year due in large part to their inability to get anything going on offense. It is pretty clear that they are only a playmaker or two on offense away from making the jump into the category above. Even without one, Georgia, Cal, and USC were all near-misses that could have easily gone the Sun Devils’ way. If this team can get better play from the offensive line and quarterback next year, both very realistic possibilities, near misses will start turning into wins.

Washington – Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Huskies have a long way to go to get back to respectability. That said, they have the right man to get them there in Steve Sarkisian. This has been made evident by their hard work and no-quit attitude, which helped them play a respectable game against LSU and pull off huge upsets over USC and Arizona. As Coach Sark brings in more talent, the Huskies should continue to rise, and until then they will likely continue to be a thorn in the side of the conferences top dogs.

10:

Washington State – And than there’s the Cougars. While WSU has made a few strides, they are hard to notice or get excited about with how rapidly the rest of the conference is rising. The situation looks pretty dire in Pullman, but on the bright side, there really isn’t anywhere to go but up from here.



THE WRAP UP

Looking at this conference from top to bottom, how can you deny its strength? Every single team (with perhaps the exception of WSU) appears to be either getting better or at the very least maintaining their competitive spot. From the looks of things, the Pac-10 is going to be a flat-out dogfight of excellent teams with top-flight talent for years to come.

Isn’t that what earned the SEC the reputation of being the nation’s best conference?

It’s about time to drop the bias.

USC Trojans 7-3 Overall (4-3 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Stanford 55 – USC 21

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

“I’m not sure I have the right words to describe being humbled like this. I don’t really know where to put it. … We have fallen apart and given our opponents the opportunity to do whatever they want, but you have to give Stanford a lot of credit.” – Pete Carroll

It’s happening to Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Florida State. So why did we believe that a humbling season was inconceivable for this USC program? Is it because Pete Carroll recruits so well? Get over that; the programs mentioned above are full of 5-star talent. The reality is USC needs time to develop, and not just the players. Rocky Seto is 33 years old, and in his first season as a defensive coordinator. Jeremy Bates is 33 years old and this is his first time coaching college football (a much different animal than pro ball).

For those that think this is the beginning of the end for USC football, keep dreaming. While the rest of the Pac-10 is recruiting at a much higher level than in recent memory, ‘SC is still comfortably leading the charge on that front. In fact, Pac-10 fans can thank Pete Carroll for forcing their schools to hit the recruiting trail that much harder.

Having said all of that… Saturday’s drubbing will require the eternally optimistic Pete Carroll to come up with his best motivation material. The truth is USC got beat by a better team this past weekend. The Cardinal were the more physical team (as they often are), and it was clear to me that they wanted it more.

Matt Barkley had a miserable game (21/31 196 yards 1 TD, 3 INTs), and there was miscommunication throughout the afternoon on offense (particularly Barkley and the receivers). One of the few positives from Saturday was the play of Joe McKnight (16 carries, 142 yards 1 TD), who showcased his signature speed and explosiveness even in a losing effort.

Defensively, I refuse to pile on with excessive criticism the way most will, because frankly, Saturday’s result had a lot more to do with Stanford’s offense than it did USC’s D. This is where you tip your cap to Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck and Jim Harbaugh for a well-executed gameplan.

Now the Trojans will have a bye before the rivalry game with UCLA. The way this season has gone, earning the Victory Bell against the Bruins is no sure thing.

Stanford Cardinal (6-3) vs. USC Trojans (7-2)
Saturday, November 14, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -10.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

My what a difference two years makes. Stanford’s 2007 win at the Coliseum is considered one of the greatest upsets in the history of college football (‘SC was a 41 point favorite), but it should shock no one if the ‘Furd wins on Saturday. This game will essentially serve as a Pac-10 title elimination match, as the winner will still be in the hunt for a Rose Bowl birth.

Can anyone stop the Stanford offense? The Cardinal now rank 14th nationally in total offense, and the unit features arguably the best running back in college football. While many observers around the country are ready to hand Alabama RB Mark Ingram the Doak Walker Award (and possibly the Heisman), I believe RB Toby Gerhart belongs in the discussion.

The nation’s second leading rusher (1,217 16 TDs) will be going up against a Trojans D that has looked susceptible against good rushing teams (Oregon, Oregon State). If the Cardinal can establish a running game early, I expect QB Andrew Luck to have a lot of success in the passing game. Luck has one of the best play action fakes in the country, and he is a tremendous decision maker.

USC received some bad news this week, as it looks like all-universe wideout Damian Williams will be out for the Stanford game. ‘SC has turned to Williams for clutch plays all season, so the onus now falls on Ronald Johnson and Brice Brown to keep the passing game productive (and possibly TE Anthony McCoy if he can go). Fortunately for QB Matt Barkley, the Cardinal D has been terrible defending the pass (102nd nationally) so there should be plenty of opportunities down field no matter which 5-star talent lines up at wideout for the Trojans.

Regardless of what the point spread says I see this game as a virtual toss up. On a neutral field I would probably take Stanford, but the Cardinal have lost three of four on the road this season (with the only win coming at lowly Wazzu). Pete Carroll knows his Trojans are still in the hunt to win an eight straight Pac-10 title, and I think he will get the team extra motivated to defend their home field in these final three games. I expect a tight battle for four quarters, but ‘SC finds a way in the end.

Prediction: USC 33 – Stanford 30

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Coby Fleener - Fleener is one of the many excellent tight ends that Harbaugh has at his disposal. I believe Fleener’s sure hands and crisp route running make him especially valuable in the Cardinal’s offensive scheme.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Chris Galippo - Everyone knows what Stanford likes to do offensively, but no one has really been able to stop it. Galippo will be one of the keys to containing Gerhart and the powerful Cardinal rushing attack.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

If this year has shown us anything, it is just how great of a conference the Pac-10 is, and that if you aren’t at your very best, you will likely find yourself on the losing end. How many teams have we seen get caught flat-footed coming off of a huge win this season? USC after Ohio State, Washington after USC, Oregon after USC, just to name a few.

This game strikes me as a prime let-down spot for the Cardinal for two reasons.

For one, just how much emotion went into that last game. To knock off the Pac-10 juggernaut Ducks took such an incredible effort from top to bottom. To lock up the first bowl bid in eight years, to have the fans rush the field… it will be nearly impossible to match that emotion and intensity in back to back games.

Secondly, Toby Gerhart is a human being. I know it’s hard to believe sometimes with the way he runs, but even the toughest players in the world get bumps and bruises. I have zero doubt that Gerhart will show up with the same intensity and power as he always does; but after his remarkable bruising 38-carry performance, I just can’t imagine he’ll be 100% this Saturday.

Stanford has a fantastic team, and a Jim Harbaugh team is always going to work hard for 60 minutes. That said, I just can’t imagine the Cardinal (or anyone for that matter) being able to put together two games at that level back-to-back, and they’ll need to against a team as tough as the Trojans in the Coliseum. Look for a game effort, but a Trojan victory in the end.

Prediction: USC 31 – Stanford 21

USC Trojans 7-2 Overall (4-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: USC 14 – Arizona State 9

Next Week’s Opponent: Stanford

Well it certainly wasn’t pretty, but the USC Trojans did escape Tempe with a win. Pete Carroll knows his team will have to be better in the final three games, but Oregon’s loss at Stanford puts the Men of Troy right back in the Rose Bowl picture.

While the ‘SC offense looked as bad as we have seen in quite some time, Carroll was more pleased with the defense: “To get back on track defensively is really obviously important to us,” Carroll said. “It’s such a good night to get four turnovers.”

S Will Harris picked off two passes and took one of them to the house for a game-changing touchdown. His fantastic effort on the night landed him Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Week. This was an important game for the defense considering the way the last three games went (ND, OSU, UO), and now the unit has some momentum heading into a tough final stretch.

Offensively, it is hard to pinpoint any one area where things went wrong. The o-line had a difficult time protecting Matt Barkley all night, and the true freshman turned in his worst game of the season (7/22 112 yards 1 TD 1 INT). If you take away WR Damian Williams’ phenomenal individual effort on the TD, Barkley would have thrown for a minuscule 37 yards.

The running game was decent (146 yards), but neither RB Joe McKnight nor RB Allen Bradford could consistently break past the Sun Devil front seven. It was clear to me that the laundry list of injuries took their toll on the offense Saturday, and the absence of TE Anthony McCoy was especially evident. For the second week in a row, TE Blake Ayles had a key drop in the passing game. The talented sophomore will not stay on the field much longer if that trend continues.

After what seems like a lifetime on the road, ‘SC returns to the friendly confines of the Coliseum for the last three games of the regular season. Obviously the Trojans have fared well at home under Carroll, but this week’s opponent has also enjoyed playing on ‘SC’s home turf recently. Jim Harbaugh’s Stanford Cardinal may be playing the best football of any club in the Pac-10, and they are the only team to win at USC in the last eight seasons.

USC Trojans (6-2) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-4)
Saturday, November 7, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -10.0

Sam’s Take (39 – 15):

The Trojans are coming off the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era, and that probably doesn’t bode well for ASU. Remember, this ‘SC program has not lost a game in the month of November since Carroll’s arrival.

Still, it’s difficult to know for sure how the Trojans dreadful performance in Eugene will affect the team moving forward. While the season may seem lost, a BCS Bowl is still likely if ‘SC wins out, so we will find out a lot about this team’s resiliency in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils may need to pull off the upset Saturday in order to keep their bowl hopes alive (remaining schedule includes @Ore, @UCLA, UA).

QB Matt Barkley really can’t be faulted for what took place last week, and I expect him to play very well in Tempe. ASU has proven to be rock solid against the run this season (4th nationally), so ‘SC will likely go to the air early with Barkley. The Devils D has developed a reputation for over-pursuing, so Jeremy Bates may also put in extra misdirection plays this week.

Dennis Erickson will once again turn to ASU QB Danny Sullivan, but he also hinted that former ‘SC commit QB Samson Szakacsy will have an expanded role in the offense. RB Dimitri Nance continues to be bothered by a shoulder injury; so true freshman RB Cameron Marshall could be the feature back this week. USC has certainly looked vulnerable on defense in the last few weeks, but the Sun Devils lack the offensive explosion of Notre Dame, OSU, and Oregon.

I expect a very physical game, as both USC and ASU prefer to play that style. But by the second half, the Trojans should pull away en route to another November win.

Prediction: USC 30 – Arizona State 17

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Ronald Johnson - RoJo caught a TD in each of the last two weeks, and I expect him to be heavily featured in the gameplan against ASU.

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Deveron Carr - The Arizona State coaches are reshuffling the Devils secondary after a disappointing outing vs. Cal, and Carr is likely to make his first career start this week.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

For a USC defense that has struggled immensely over the last three weeks, ASU’s manageable offense might be just what the doctor ordered. Since conference play has started, ASU has averaged 20.6 points per game. They will get their share of yards and points, but unlike the last three teams USC has played (with ND’s Jimmy Clausen, OSU’s Jacquizz Rodgers, and Oregon’s LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli), Arizona State doesn’t have any explosiveness in their backfield.

The biggest question mark in this game is simply how will USC react to having just been blown out? For a team that generally likes to have a lot of light-hearted fun during practice and preperation for games, a loss like this could throw things out of balance. If Pete Carroll tries to change too much too fast, it could really affect the team’s psyche. Will be interesting to see how they play this Saturday, especially in the first half.

For ASU, the message has been consistant all year; the defense can only do so much. They’ve been playing at a high level and giving the team a chance to win more often than not, but it just hasn’t been enough as the offense hasn’t been able to capitalize.

I expect similar in this one; ASU holds USC somewhere in the 28-35 range, but the offense continues to struggle.

Prediction: USC 28 – Arizona State 14

USC Trojans 6-2 Overall (3-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 47 – USC 20

Next Week’s Opponent: @Arizona State

How do you put what just happened this Saturday into words?

Domination obviously comes to mind.

We saw something that many of us never thought we’d see in the Pete Carroll era; a USC team get completely manhandled.

Seeing a final score of 47-20, had I not seen the game, I’d have immediately thought that Matt Barkley must have finally shown signs of being human, and finally had a true-freshman implosion.

Quite the contrary. Matt Barkley may not have been spectacular, but 21/38 for 187 yards, 2 TD, and 1 INT was not a meltdown at all. And the interception came on the last throw of the game, it had absolutely no effect on the outcome. No Joe McKnight fumbles. No quirky bounces. The Trojans just got dominated, through-and-through.

Perhaps most interesting was the fact that heading into the half, the score was 24-17 as a 17-17 tie was broken with a little under two minutes left by an Oregon touchdown. This Trojans team under Pete Carroll has been one of the best 2nd half teams in the country; they make the necessary adjustments, and their conditioning shines through as the game wears on.

But not this time. Pete Carroll and the defense had no answer for Chip Kelly’s dynamic offense, and the offense was completely shut down in the second half by Nick Aliotti’s stingy defense. The Oregon Ducks out-coached and outplayed the USC Trojans in the second half by a wide margin; again, something I never thought I’d see under Pete Carroll.

With so many great defensive players lost to the draft last season, many of us were expecting a drop off this year. That drop off didn’t occur at the beginning of the year, so most of us just assumed this unit remarkably hadn’t missed a beat despite breaking in so many new starters. But as the last three games’ awful defensive stats have shown us, this defense is what it is; a group of talented athletes that lacked experience and needed to learn the ropes and gel together.

So where do you go from here? Quite simply, you just try to pick up the pieces and finish the season strong.

USC Trojans (6-1) vs. Oregon Ducks (6-1)
Saturday, October 31, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -3.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

With all due respect to the Arizona Wildcats, the Pac-10 champion will most likely be decided in Eugene this Saturday. In fact, there is still a chance that the winner of this game will be playing in Pasadena come January, and not for the Rose Bowl. Who would have thought this kind of scenario would be possible for either school about a month ago?

But here we are. College GameDay will be on hand for a potential Halloween classic at Autzen with BCS implications.

The Oregon Ducks enter Saturday’s game playing the best football of any team in the Pac-10. Chip Kelly’s explosive offense can score at any moment and Nick Aliotti’s defense has been wreaking havoc all season. Throw in superb special teams, and it’s easy to see why the Ducks are currently alone atop the Pac-10 standings.

While QB Jeremiah Masoli still isn’t 100%, he looked great against Washington and chances are he will be close to full speed by Saturday night. The Ducks will certainly look to utilize Masoli’s mobility against USC, as the Trojans have historically had trouble with dual-threat QBs. If Masoli can get the ‘SC defense to bite on a few of his well-orchestrated ball fakes, the field could open up for RB LaMichael James. ‘Quizz Rodgers proved that the Trojans are not impenetrable, so it should be interesting to see how Oregon’s rushing attack fares against the ‘SC D.

USC is finding its rhythm on offense at the perfect time. The Trojans have opened up the playbook more in the last three games (@ CAL, @ ND, OSU), which has allowed QB Matt Barkley to make some big plays in the vertical passing game. The ‘SC offense will be Oregon’s biggest test of the season, and I am most interested to see how the Ducks pass rush performs against the ultra-sturdy Trojan o-line. ‘SC will probably try to establish the run right away with RB Allen Bradford and RB Joe McKnight, and if they get going, look for big plays to be available for Barkley off of play action fakes (it wouldn’t surprise me to see Ronald Johnson get a deep ball thrown his way early).

Oregon has all of the ingredients to beat ‘SC this Saturday, and as we all know, the Ducks play at another level at Autzen. In many ways, I get the same feeling about this game that I did in 2007 when Oregon flat out beat the Trojans. But even with all of that said, I am going with USC for one major reason: Pete Carroll. Under Carroll, the Trojans have won this conference SEVEN straight times, and he knows how to prepare his team better than any coach in America when the stakes are highest. Until a Pac-10 team can beat ‘SC when it matters most, I cannot pick against them.

Prediction: USC 31 – Oregon 28

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Blake Ayles - Anthony McCoy’s status is still up in the air, so Ayles could be a big part of the passing attack this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Jamere Holland - This game has added significance for Holland (transferred from ‘SC), and I’m sure the speedy wideout will be looking to make a big impact.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

How do you pick a side in such an evenly matched clash of Pac-10 superpowers? My inner dialogue is going something like this;

Oregon looks to be the team playing at a higher level right now, especially on defense.

True, but Oregon hasn’t faced an offensive line this strong yet. This could be the week that the pass rush gets slowed down, and those injuries in the secondary finally catch up to the Ducks.

Fair enough, but Oregon also has home field advantage, and we all know how crazy Autzen can get, especially when it comes to big games.

Yes, bet USC has already proven that they can beat tough teams on the road, they’ve beaten Ohio State, Cal, and Notre Dame! Not to mention, USC’s record against ranked opponents since October 19th, 2002 is a remarkable 32-2! Pete Carroll’s squads never lose the big game.

Never, except for those two times. Let’s see, Texas comes to mind… and oh, that’s right, THIS team, two years ago. The Ducks have beaten the Trojans 6 of the last 11 times they’ve played!

Yeah, but the Trojans have beaten the Ducks 4 of the last 5 times they’ve played!

And I go on like this for hours. The only conclusion I ever seem to come to is that this is going to be one hell of a game.

But alas, I am forced to make a decision, as there are no ties in college football. My gut says USC, but I think that’s just from years and years of dominance conditioning me to feel that way. The Ducks have looked more well-rounded, and they’ve got home field advantage. They’ve earned the respect.

Prediction: Oregon 26 – USC 24