ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
Pasadena, California
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) VS. #7 Oregon Ducks (10-2)
Friday, January 1, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -4.0

Sam’s Take (58 – 23):

One of the most memorable seasons in Oregon football history will come to an end on Friday, as the Ducks are looking to win their first Rose Bowl since 1917. Chip Kelly’s squad has been through it all in 2009, and when you consider how the season started there is no doubt that Kelly and his staff deserve all the praise they have received.

As for The Ohio State University, this game represents yet another opportunity to prove its worth on the big stage. Clearly, marquee non-conference wins have been tough to come by for the Buckeyes, but its important to realize that Jim Tressel’s team is almost always involved in the BCS by seasons end (a commendable achievement). OSU will be making its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1997.

The most exciting match-up to watch for in this one will be the high-octane Ducks offense versus the highly underrated OSU defense. We have watched the Ducks run roughshod over opposing defenses all season, but could this Buckeye defense do what Boise State did all the way back in week one? A look at the numbers reveals a tale of two units that are very evenly matched. The Ducks head to Pasadena with the 7th best scoring offense in the country and the sixth best rushing attack, while the Bucks will counter with a D that ranks 5th nationally in total defense and 5th nationally in run defense. Should be fun right?

While I hold the OSU D in high regard, I don’t think Jim Heacock’s unit has faced a team like Oregon. Attempting to simulate Chip Kelly’s offense with a scout team is fruitless, as there is no way to truly recreate the misdirection. QB Jeremiah Masoli runs the zone read as well as any player in football, and I expect him to have more success this Friday. OSU’s defense is good enough to slow UO down at times, but I expect the quick strike Ducks to be locked in for most of the day.

The OSU offense has been inconsistent all season, and it doesn’t help that QB Terrelle Pryor is playing with a torn PCL (which he believes won’t be an issue). Still, the Buckeyes have a strong enough running game to make things interesting. If OSU can effectively run the ball with Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, Pryor may be able to connect on play action passes rather than using his feet to make plays.

There are plenty of reasons why Ohio State should be incredibly motivated for this game, but I just don’t think they are the better team. Oregon has played at an exceptionally high level in all three phases of the game for the majority of the season, and they have an overabundance of something that has given OSU trouble for the past three years… speed. I expect the Buckeyes to fight hard and make it a game, but I like the Ducks by six.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – Ohio State 24

Ohio State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR DeVier Posey – OSU will need big plays in the passing game, especially if the Oregon offense gets going early. Posey is a prototypical big play receiver with great speed and hands. He led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: DE/LB Kenny Rowe – Rowe has been a terror for opposing QBs all season, as he has racked up 8.5 sacks this season. Ohio State has not blocked players like Rowe very well over the last few years, and I expect his quickness and speed off the edge to disrupt Pryor throughout the game.

Dave’s Take (60 – 21):

No disrespect to THE Ohio State University, but in my honest opinion, the only way Oregon loses this game is if they beat themselves.

Thinking back to the Boise State game, it was clear that the Ducks offense wasn’t up to game speed. Granted, there is a big difference between a full offseason and a month or so, but this offense relies on having it’s timing down pat. If Oregon comes out clicking like they have been since late September, even OSU’s tough D will have trouble keeping the Ducks out of the high 30’s in scoring.

Ohio State has a great football team, but I believe Oregon will be too creative for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Nick Alliotti will be sure to dial up plenty of creative blitz packages to keep Terrelle Pryor (who won’t be at 100%) on his toes, and as I stated before, there just isn’t much to be done against Oregon’s offense, regardless of how strong your defensive unit may be.

Ohio State obviously has a massive chip on their shoulder, but that chip has been there for a few years now and hasn’t gotten them over the top. This year they play an Oregon team that fought their hearts out to win the Pac-10, so I doubt there will be any lack of motivation on their side.

Regardless of the game’s outcome, this bowl season will be chalked up as a disappointment. The losing record is obvious enough, but the ugly fashion in how the games were lost (other than Stanford, who fought hard without Andrew Luck) didn’t help lessen the blow. Furthermore, a win over Ohio State won’t get the Ducks the credit they deserve due to OSU’s recent bowl history; a loss, however, would make a bad bowl season for the Pac-10 a devestating one.

But I don’t think we’ll be seeing an Oregon loss this New Year’s Day. I expect the momentum of the regular season to carry over into a comfortable Ducks victory.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Ohio State 20

Utah Utes (2-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (1-1)
Saturday, September 19, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -5.0

Sam’s Take (14 – 4):

These two programs finished the 2008 season as well as any in the country, but right now, I think both have a lot of improving to do. In four combined games, I have seen inconsistent play out of the Utes and Ducks, so it will be interesting to see which team makes the biggest strides Saturday.

I believe the key to this game will be the Oregon rushing attack vs. the Utah run defense. The running game sets everything up in Chip Kelly’s misdirection spread scheme, but the Ducks have been inconsistent on the ground through two games. The Utes have a stingy front seven that will look to overpower a shaky Ducks offensive line, and right now I give the edge in that matchup to Utah. However, I do believe that if the UO line can play like it did in the latter part of the Purdue game, then playmakers like LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner will have a chance to hit some big plays.

I also believe the Ducks will need to get more receivers involved this week. Against Purdue, QB Jeremiah Masoli only completed passes to only four players, but most troubling is the limited role that TE Ed Dickson has had so far (3 catches in two games). Dickson is an All-America caliber player who should be the focal point of the passing attack, and I can only hope that is more involved this week.

The Utah offense will be hoping to have a relatively healthy RB Matt Asiata available, and if he’s good to go the Ducks will have to deal with a bruising tailback with deceptive quickness. The Utes are feeling pretty good about what new QB Terrance Cain can do as well, so the Ducks D will have to be sharp in coverage. Nick Alliotti’s unit came up with a some huge plays last week to help secure the win, and this week will require more of the same. Walter Thurmond and Co. may even have to score again in order to support an offense that is still a definite work in progress.

Utah is looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 17 games, and on a neutral field I would likely pick them to take this game. But I believe Autzen gives the home team an extra boost on both sides of the ball, and that energy will be enough to propel the Ducks to a very close win.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Utah 30

Utah Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Stevenson Sylvester - He is the anchor of the defense and will be one of the keys to the game on Saturday.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson - I can’t reiterate enough how much I believe Dickson needs to get the ball more. This may be the game that jump-starts his season.

Dave’s Take (14 – 4):

After losing 11 starters this offseason (including quarterback Brian Johnson), Utes fans were concerned that there might be a major drop off this season; and less than stellar efforts in the first two games of the season haven’t done much to quiet those concerns. For Oregon, hopes of a big season have now been met with fears of a disastrous one.

One of these teams will send their fans home with a big sigh of relief and some cautious optimism moving forward. The other will raise even more questions than the first two games have already provided.

Utah has won both of their games so far this year, but both were against inferior opponents. Last week’s game against San Jose State saw the Utes take a 7-7 tie into the 4th quarter before eventually pulling away.

JuCo transfer QB Terrance Cain has looked strong in both the passing and running game so far this season, but with all due respect to San Jose State’s fans, he hasn’t been road-tested in a hostile environment like Autzen yet. He’ll get his share of yards this Saturday, but Oregon’s defense has a knack for making big plays, and the crowd might force him into some mistakes.

For Oregon, it is going to come down to line play. Utah’s D-Line is one of its best units, and if the O-Line doesn’t open up lanes for the running backs and buy Jeremiah Masoli time when he needs it, it’ll be a long day. And as uncomfortable as Oregon fans might make Terrance Cain, it will all be for naught if the D-Line isn’t doing their part to disrupt him, too.

I haven’t seen enough out of either of these teams to pick either of them with any confidence at this point. Unless Oregon’s lines take a big step forward, it looks to me like Utah will win those battles; and with their dangerous running game led by Matt Asiata, that might be the difference. Oregon will have to show us something we haven’t seen out of them in the first two weeks defensively to win this one; and I can’t pick them until they do.

Prediction: Utah 31 – Oregon 28

Purdue Boilermakers (1-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (0-1)
Saturday, September 12, 7:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -12.0

Sam’s Take (8 – 1):

The long road back to respectability begins for Oregon this Saturday, and returning to Autzen may be just what the doctor ordered. While there is no real way of knowing how this Ducks team will respond to the humbling experience that took place last Thursday, Purdue may be the right opponent at the right time.

QB Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the offense will be facing a Boilermaker defense that was lit up by Toledo in their opener (Purdue gave up 421 yards through the air). If Chip Kelly cannot find a way to get production out of his offense this week, it will be a very long season in Eugene.

Now is the time for Masoli to regain his confidence (and his passing accuracy). Now is also the time for a wideout like Jamere Holland to meet the high expectations that were set for him after an excellent off-season.

I expect to see exciting freshman tailback LaMichael James start to assert himself as the new feature back at Oregon, but Andre Crenshaw and Kenjon Barner will also be heavily involved. Unfortunately, all three backs may not go anywhere if the o-line doesn’t play substantially better than what we saw last week. The east-west running was completely ineffective against Boise, but maybe with improved line play and a trio of shifty backs, the misdirection will start to work again (after all, Blount didn’t look too nimble against the Broncos).

Defensively, the Ducks will have their work cut out for them. I am not as high on the defensive performance against Boise as some are. I feel that the Broncos offense shot itself in the foot on multiple occasions, and Nick Alliotti’s D looked lost at times.

I credit the unit for tightening up when it had to, but at best it was a “bend but don’t break” performance. My biggest concern is the health of safety T.J. Ward, who is “day-to-day”. If he can’t go Saturday, John Boyett may be forced back into action, or we may see one of the Rovers move over (Lewis or Johnson). Without Ward, the secondary is considerably less intimidating.

Purdue will likely attack the defense with standout RB Ralph Bolden, who rushed for 234 yards in the opener and flashed impressive playmaking ability throughout the game. The Ducks best bet may be to force QB Joey Elliot to beat them. Elliot was decent against Toledo, but also showed a penchant for throwing interceptions (he finished with 220 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs). In order to rattle Elliot, it is critical that the d-line establishes a consistent pass rush, something they did not do very well in Boise.

Oregon should have plenty of motivation to show the country that they are better than what they showed in the opener. I think the offense will be considerably better (it couldn’t be any worse), and while the defense is likely to give up some yards, I think the unit will also force a few turnovers.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Purdue 27

Purdue Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Ryan Kerrigan - He is an excellent pass-rusher with a high motor. He could wreak havoc on Masoli if the Oregon o-line plays like it did last week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson - For a struggling QB, having a reliable target like Dickson is huge. I hope the offense will run through him a little more, as he really is one of America’s best at tight end.

Dave’s Take (8 – 1):

A quick glance at the schedule this preseason, and the game against Purdue was the only “easy” one in September. Fast-forward to today, and what was supposed to be the respite of the month has all of a sudden become a virtual must-win for the Ducks.

There are two ways that I can see this game going.

Scenario One: Completely dejected after the awful game in Boise State and losing one of their best offensive weapons in LeGarrette Blount, the team can’t really find their grove or identity on or off the field. Jeremiah Masoli starts second guessing himself more often and forcing it too much, resulting in more turnovers. The defensive and offensive lines both continue to struggle as the offense looks out of sync and the defense has difficulty slowing down a powerful Boilermaker offensive attack. Purdue pulls off the upset, or comes dangerously close to doing so.

Scenario Two: Oregon sets out to prove to the world that this season is not lost, and last week was an aberration. They want to show that they’ll be just fine without LeGarrette Blount and they are plenty deep on offense to withstand the blow. Fueled by the home crowd and their desire to prove all of their doubters wrong, Oregon goes out and plays to their potential, this time flashing the ability on both sides of the ball that many of us were expecting in the Boise State game. The Ducks win comfortably, and pump some much needed life back into this season.

I’m leaning towards scenario two as I’m not quite ready to throw in the towel on the Ducks after just one game. An extremely ugly one game, yes, but it was the opener and plenty of teams weren’t at their best last week.

The only problem I’m having is that I made the same argument about being pumped up and going out with their best effort in the Boise State game, and we all saw how that turned out. If that was the best the Ducks could do in a game they had circled on the calendar, should we really expect them to all of a sudden find that heart they were lacking in one week?

I’m going to say yes… but if Scenario One plays out, it is going to be a long season.

Prediction: Oregon 41 – Purdue 24