Oregon Ducks 5-1 Overall (3-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 24 – UCLA 10

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Coming into this season, there were a lot of questions surrounding Nick Aliotti’s defense. How would the d-line hold up, especially now that Nick Reed has moved on? Could the secondary overcome the losses of Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd? Then more recently, who would step up now that Walter Thurmond III and Willie Glasper are done for the season (not to mention the uncertain status of T.J. Ward)?

If the first three Pac-10 games are any indication, many of those questions have been answered. Oregon has been off-the-charts good on D so far in the conference, giving up three points to Cal, six to Wazzu and three to UCLA. The Ducks continue to prove they can win even when the offense isn’t its explosive self.

After a lackluster first half against the Bruins (UO trailed 3-0 at half), Kenjon Barner’s kickoff return TD ignited the Ducks. Oregon fans have to feel good about what Talmadge Jackson (INT return for TD), Cliff Harris, and the rest of the makeshift secondary was able to accomplish in Pasadena.

Of course the other story from Saturday was the continued excellence of RB LaMichael James. James has far surpassed the hype coming out of Eugene during spring and fall camp, and he is quickly developing into one of the best tailbacks in the Pac-10. His 152 rushing yards accounted for over half of the Ducks offensive output. James now has 581 rushing yards (3rd in conference) and four TDs on the season.

QB Nate Costa did not do much (9/17 82 yards, 1 TD 1 INT), but he didn’t have to. Costa’s job was to manage the game, and he did just that. If not for an incredibly athletic play by Bruins LB Akeem Ayers, Costa’s stat sheet would have looked a bit better, but all things considered, it was a solid effort.

The Ducks get a much needed bye week, and this is the perfect time for Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the injured to fully recuperate. Then it’s off to Seattle for a date with the hated Washington Huskies. One of the Pac-10’s most heated rivalries will finally have some restored meaning, and there should be an electric atmosphere at Husky Stadium in two weeks. If the Ducks escape Montlake with a victory, the Halloween showdown with USC is on at Autzen.

Oregon Ducks (4-1) vs. UCLA Bruins (3-1)
Saturday, October 10, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -3.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (25 – 12):

Oregon has been firing on all cylinders for the last two weeks, but this Saturday’s game is not taking place in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. Remember the last time Oregon played a road game?

The Ducks may have to overcome more than just a rowdy Rose Bowl crowd, as it remains to be seen if QB Jeremiah Masoli can play Saturday. Nate Costa certainly has the tools to be successful, but can he lead the Ducks to a meaningful win in his first career start (especially on the road)? The Ducks will also be without CB Willie Glasper, who was supposed to fill the void left by Walter Thurmond III. Now the Ducks are without their two best corners for the rest of the season, and Norm Chow will likely test the secondary early in the game.

Chow may have the services of starting QB Kevin Prince (broken jaw), who has recently resumed practicing with the first team offense. Prince can make all of the deep throws that Kevin Craft can’t, which means there should be plenty of opportunities for the Bruin receivers against the inexperienced Oregon corners.

I believe there are many reasons to pick the upset here, but something tells me Oregon will find a way. Costa understands Chip Kelly’s system well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him flourish (just as LaMichael James has been great at RB in place of Blount). The UCLA run defense is good, but Stanford proved that it is not impenetrable. I also love the way Oregon’s defensive front seven is playing, so Prince (or Craft) may be in for a very long day if the pass rush looks like it has over the past couple of weeks.

I see the resilient Ducks pulling this one out in Pasadena.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – UCLA 24

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson – Whether Costa or Masoli plays Saturday; #83 should be a feature part of the passing game.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Korey Bosworth - Bosworth will be a key to disrupting the timing of Oregon’s misdirection spread attack.

Dave’s Take (29 – 8):

For the Halloween matchup between the USC Trojans and the Oregon Ducks to be the Pac-10 Game of the Year that it is currently looking like it might be, both teams are going to have to actually get there without anymore missteps; and the first challenge for the Ducks comes this Saturday in UCLA.

UCLA’s generally stout defense was exposed last Saturday, especially on the ground; playing against Toby Gerhart can do that to defenses. While there isn’t a whole lot of doubt that the Bruins defense is strong, Luck and Gerhart’s big days are definitely cause for concern; how will the D hold up against stronger offenses? San Diego State, Kansas State, and even Tennessee (with Crompton at the helm) didn’t really give us a good indication.

Oregon’s offense has found its groove, but now Jeremiah Masoli’s status is in question, and a defense like UCLA’s on the road isn’t the first start I want to see Nate Costa get as a Ducks fan. Heading back on the road for the first time in over a month is hard enough; doing so completely demolished by injuries (Glasper, Thurmond III) is even worse.

With the return of Kevin Prince and home field advantage, the Bruins will be extremely focused and geared up for the upset. Beating Oregon would help them avoid falling to 0-2 in the conference and would also establish their presence in the conference.

Even with the injuries, I think Oregon has what it takes to win this game. What it really comes down to is mental toughness, something the Ducks didn’t show a whole lot of the last time they headed out on the road. I’m going to trust them to get the job done this time around; but it’ll come down to the wire.

Prediction: Oregon 27 – UCLA 23

However, two major components remain off of the 10-3 2008 Oregon team. Former offensive coordinator and now head coach Chip Kelly is one. The other is dual-threat quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Between Kelly and Masoli, the identity of Oregon’s highly entertaining, fast-paced spread offense is still intact. Last year, Oregon produced more touchdowns of 50 yards or greater than any other Pac-10 team.

Unlike offensive line and especially wide receiver, the quarterback position will not be an open competition at Oregon. If anyone was going to challenge Masoli for significant time this season, it would have been Justin Roper, who transferred out less than a month ago.

Jeremiah Masoli having fun

Masoli will be a junior entering 2009, coming off of a very successful campaign in 2008 where he threw for 1,744 yards and 13 touchdowns, as well as running for 718 yards and 10 scores. Masoli helped lead the Ducks to two electrifying wins at the end of 2008.

First, in the Civil War against Oregon State, Masoli threw for 274 yards and a career-high three TDs as well as running for another. More importantly, he led his offense to a record 65-38 smashing of a Beaver team playing at home for a Rose Bowl birth and Pac-10 crown.

In his next game, Masoli absolutely demolished No. 13 Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl with 258 yards and one score through the air, while adding 106 yards and three scores on the ground on his way to Holiday Bowl Offensive MVP.

The nationally televised game allowed college football fans a chance to see the multi-talented Masoli throw with great accuracy and then plow his way through defenders, looking more like a Mack Truck than a signal-caller.

This is what Oregon fans expect to see this season, and they will as long as he can stay healthy. But all of his physically destructive running may have to be used in moderation because that style is not conducive to a full season’s work.

Assuming Masoli plays at the level he did last season, and can establish chemistry with the youthful receivers, Oregon should be potent on offense again this season. Having RB LeGarrette Blount back certainly doesn’t hurt either, and he will take some of the load off of Masoli. Behind Masoli is fellow junior Nate Costa.

Only a year ago at this time it was Costa who was named starting quarterback. Costa suffered a season-ending knee ligament tear just two weeks before the season started. When healthy, Costa is a versatile playmaking quarterback that is perfect for Kelly’s spread offense. Unfortunately, Costa has had three knee surgeries altogether and will be a question mark until he can stay on the field.

Masoli’s primary backup in 2009 could be true sophomore Darron Thomas. Last year Thomas may have redshirted but he was forced into action against Boise State because of injury problems.

When he did enter the game in the second half, the 6-4 dual-threat athlete almost helped Oregon overcome a 24-point deficit against Boise State. He ended his day 13-25 for 210 yards and three TDs. Rivals.com rated him as a 4-star prospect when he came out of Aldine High School in Texas.

My Take

You could make a very strong argument that Masoli is the best returning quarterback in the Pac-10 this year. I have never seen a power runner at quarterback quite like Masoli. He is an underrated passer as well and my only hope is that he can stay healthy by running out of bounds on a few of those runs instead of lowering his shoulder.

If he is the quarterback for all of 2009, Oregon could have a big year on offense, but the line must re-tool and the receivers have to step up.

Darron Thomas has upside but he needs to prove that he can make the crucial quick decisions that Chip Kelly’s spread offense demands. If he becomes a polished passer, he could be the future at QB for the Ducks.

As for Costa, Mike Bellotti seemed very high on him going into last season, and that is enough to make me think he must have great ability. Maybe three knee surgeries later Costa is ready, but in an offense like Oregon’s where the Quarterback is asked to run a ton, I am skeptical.