Arizona Wildcats (7-4) vs. USC Trojans (8-3)
Saturday, December 5, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -7.0

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

If Oregon is able to beat Oregon State in the War for the Roses, the winner of this Saturday’s game between USC and UA will likely head to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. Each team could finish as high as second in the conference standings or as low as sixth. Although the Trojans haven’t lost to Arizona in nine years, the series has been closely contested in recent years (last two meetings have been decided by a touchdown).

I like USC in this game for two main reasons. First, the Trojans can still finish with 10 wins this season and I believe that would provide the program with positive momentum heading into the off-season. After last week’s ending against UCLA, ‘SC seems to have found an emotional spark, and I’m sure Pete Carroll will have his team ready for the season finale. Second, the ‘Cats will be without RB Nic Grigsby for yet another game. Last week against Arizona State, it was clear that the ‘Cats missed their home run threat, and the offense just isn’t the same without him.

The Trojans defense is starting to make plays again, and ‘Zona QB Nick Foles will be less than 100%. I expect ‘SC to contain RB Keola Antolin, Greg Nwoko and the rest of the ‘Cats running attack, which should allow the Trojans D to pin its ears back and attack Foles.

The normally stout UA defense has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight games, and I expect RB Joe McKnight to make it four. Once McKnight gets going, Matt Barkley, Damian Williams and the ‘SC passing attack should have plenty of opportunities.

Arizona has led in the fourth quarter of every conference game this season, and I have no doubt Mike Stoops’ club will keep this one close. But in the end, I expect USC to pull away late for another one score victory over the ‘Cats.

Prediction: USC 31 – Arizona 24

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Devin Ross - Ross is a shutdown corner capable of eliminating an opposition’s feature receiver. Damian Williams will be his biggest test of the season.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Anthony McCoy - McCoy figures to be closer to 100%, and I expect him to have a big day against an undersized UA defense.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

Gone is USC’s aura of invincibility, and in its place is a lack of certainty on both sides of the ball.

The defense had an outstanding game against the Bruins, but than again, UCLA doesn’t have a particularly high-powered offense. When going up against the Pac-10’s three top offenses in total yards in Stanford, Oregon State, and Oregon, USC has given up 55, 36, and 47 points, respectively.

Arizona ranks fourth in the conference in total yards.

Can USC’s defense build on the momentum of the UCLA game, or will it fall back into giving up points to another high-powered attack? Despite Arizona’s solid defense and USC’s less-than-stellar offense, I think the Trojans have gotten healthy enough on offense to put up some points in this one; but if the game turns into a shootout, I don’t love USC’s chances.

I don’t think it will turn into a shootout, though. I get the feeling that USC will be the more focused team in this one playing their third straight home game and potentially for a Holiday Bowl berth. Arizona, meanwhile, is coming off of the intense low of losing to the Ducks at home to end their chance at a Rose Bowl to the intense high of beating hated rival ASU in the closing seconds. I just don’t know how much more they have to give in this regular season, and they’ll nead to be at their best to beat USC at the Coliseum, even if this is an off year for the Men of Troy.

Prediction: USC 28 – Arizona 21

Oregon Ducks (8-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (6-3)
Saturday, November 21, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

The race to Pasadena stops in Tucson this week, and so will ESPN College Gameday. Both Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny in the Pac-10 title race, while the fate of Oregon State and Stanford will dramatically change depending on the outcome in this one.

The recent history between Oregon and Arizona leads me to believe we are in for another entertaining thriller. Oregon has lost two of their last three games against UA, and the ‘Cats have upset a Top 25 team at home in five straight seasons.

Stanford proved that it is possible to beat the Ducks in a shootout, as long as you have an excellent QB and a balanced offensive attack. Check and check for Arizona, as QB Nick Foles actually out dueled Andrew Luck earlier this season in a 43-38 UA win. RB Nic Grigsby is expected to play, and when healthy, he provides the ‘Cats with the same dynamic ability that LaMichael James brings to UO. Arizona also has a very capable defense with tremendous speed at all three levels (UA 18th nationally in total defense), so ‘Zona has all the ingredients necessary to pull the upset.

Having said all of that, I believe the Ducks will rise to the occasion. Unless Mike Stoops finds a way to clone QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaMichael James, there is no way the scout team will adequately prepare UA for that tremendous misdirection spread attack. I also think Nick Aliotti’s underrated defense will prevent UA’s quick passing attack from establishing a rhythm. Sonny Dykes offense is predicated on timing, but all of the receiver screens and quick slants can be thwarted by a disruptive defense (something the Ducks clearly have).

Chip Kelly’s team understands what is on the line this week, and I fully expect to see Oregon’s best effort of the season on Saturday. The Ducks have certainly had their struggles on the road this year, but I believe they are due for a big game away from Autzen.

I think Oregon wins a high-scoring affair at the Old Pueblo, which should setup one of the best Civil War games of all time.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Arizona 28

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Cliff Harris – Harris is one of the best young corners in the Pac-10, and the freshman will have to be at his best against a talented UA receiving corps.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR/KR Travis Cobb – I think Arizona will need to get something big out of the kick return game Saturday, and Cobb has already proven he can take it the distance (95 yard TD return two weeks ago).

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Honestly, I really don’t know what to do with myself in this game.

At first, I thought I was going to be hand-down-no-question picking Oregon. After all, it seems to be an all but forgone conclusion that they are going to put up 40+ points no matter who they are playing against; and while the defense got beat up by Stanford, it has been fairly strong all season.

But is it a sure thing that Oregon runs rampant on Arizona’s defense? It’s always difficult to actually try to look at numbers or matchups or anything else when breaking down Oregon’s offense; they just seem to shred through everything. But am I crazy for thinking that maybe, just maybe, Arizona’s very fast and talented defense might stand some chance in slowing them down a little bit?

Furthermore, why are we so quick to write off Arizona? This team did top both Stanford and Oregon State, so they have proven that they can play with the conference’s best. Nic Grigsby’s return should take some of the pressure off of Nick Foles as well.

And than there is the whole Arizona home-field advantage issue. I believe it is blown a bit out of proportion considering that both of Oregon’s losses came against excellent teams (and they are much better now than they were against Boise State), so it isn’t like the Ducks are as hopeless on the road as some are making them out to be. On the other hand, can we completely ignore that Oregon is 2-2 on the road (with the two wins coming over weak opponents in UCLA and UW), and Arizona is a perfect 5-0 at home (including wins over Central Michigan and Stanford)?

I’m not going to say that Arizona is the “better team”, but I will say they’ve got more of a chance than they are getting credit for in this one. Andrew Luck exploited Oregon’s beat up secondary, and I could see Nick Foles doing the same. It will take a near-perfect game on both sides of the ball to pull it off, but something tells me the ‘Cats have it in them.

Prediction: Arizona 41 – Oregon 38

Ding Dong’ the merry-oh, sing it high, sing it low.
Let them know
The Wicked Witch is dead!

For some reason, this song was running through my head as I watched Stanford pummel USC.

For Trojans fans, it has been a fantastic ride for the last seven years. So fantastic, in fact, that Trojan fans are completely guilty of taking it for granted. Every single one of them (myself, included).

Virtually every hiccup along the way has cost USC a trip to the National Championship, which in turn turned the Rose Bowl into a consolation prize of sorts. USC fans are always disappointed to “only” win the Pac-10 and “only” go to the Rose Bowl.

And that’s one of the reasons why fans around the conference have hated the USC Trojans and their fans for the better part of a decade now, and as Stanford drove the final nail into the coffin that Washington had opened and Oregon had closed, there is plenty of reason for the rest of the conference to celebrate.

A friend of mine asked me, “Dave, you know your Pac-10; Is USC done for? I mean, I know they are this season, but are they done for good?”

I’m surprised at how many people are living in the moment so badly that they are actually asking this question. NO, USC isn’t done for good. They still have one of the best coaches in the country and a never-ending stable of 4 and 5-star talent. They will be a serious contender for the Pac-10 title next year, as well as the years to come.

The beauty, though, is that they won’t be the only serious contender. 2009 will not mark the beginning of the end of USC as a football power; but it will mark the end of their stranglehold over the rest of the conference.

PAC-10 ON THE RISE – FIVE TEAMS IN THE TOP 25

Many college football fans are going to continue to be ignorant and disregard the Pac-10.

They will continue to laugh off the conference for no reason at all, and ignore evidence of its strength. They will continue to hold the ridiculous double standard that when SEC teams beat each other up (which has been non-existent this year), it is an indication of how strong the conference is, but when the Pac-10 beats itself up, it is an indication of how weak the conference is. How does this even begin to make sense?

Of course, if you are one of these people, you are scoffing and preparing your “LOL PAC-10 TEH SUX” comment. Good for you.

But for the more reasonable, it is hard to ignore that the Pac-10 is on the rise.

Perhaps the strongest evidence of the Pac-10’s strength is the amount of BCS ranked teams it has. Heading into this weekend, the Pac-10 currently has 20% of the teams in the BCS top 25 with five; #11 Oregon, #17 Stanford, #18 USC, #19 Oregon State, and #25 California. The ACC and Big 10 each have four, the SEC, Big East, and Mountain West have three, the Big 12 has two, and the WAC has one.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Pac-10 is the only conference that schedules only three out of conference games. They actually have to play a true round robin, and don’t have the opportunity to dodge big conference opponents or schedule an extra softy like other teams do.

TEAM-BY-TEAM, EVERYONE IS GETTING BETTER

What impresses me most about the Pac-10 this season is that as great and deep as the conference has proven to be this season, from the looks of it, it is only going to get better.

1-6:

Oregon – Still in control of their own destiny atop the Pac-10, Oregon has steam-rolled through most of their opponents, including USC and Cal. Their two losses have come against very good ranked opponents; and they’d love to have the Boise State game back as that continues to look more and more like an anomaly. The Mike Belotti to Chip Kelly transition was seamless, and with a fantastic and innovative system in place on both sides of the ball, Oregon will be a power for years to come. They have both Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James returning next year, and this was the year for the offensive and defensive lines to rebuild; both should be even stronger in 2010.

Stanford – Their late surge has given them back-to-back wins over conference powerhouses in Oregon and USC as well as a chance of a trip to the Rose Bowl if the cards fall right. Jim Harbaugh has turned this team around in a hurry, and they have taken on his personality as a hard-nosed physical team that never stops working. This was supposed to be the year to break in Andrew Luck, but he has already emerged as a star at the quarterback position. He will likely be even better next season, and Harbaugh’s excellent ability to recruit will be even easier after the display the Cardinal have put on over the last few weeks.

Oregon State – Year in and year out, Mike Riley churns out one of the most consistently strong teams in the Pac-10. The Beavers have finished in the Top 25 for three straight years, and from the looks of it will keep that streak alive here in 2009. Their excellent post-September play (as always) has put them in a position to take at least a share of the Pac-10 title with a win over their rival Ducks. Mike Riley is one of the best in the country at recruiting and developing players into his system, and there is no reason to believe the Beavers won’t continue to be a threat to make noise in the conference for as long as he’s at the helm.

Arizona – Hard to believe Mike Stoops was on the hot seat not too long ago. With the help of Sonny Dykes and the emergence of Nick Foles at QB, the Wildcats have an electrifying offense. They also have an extremely fast and talented defensive unit. With Oregon and USC still ahead, the path to the Rose Bowl is a difficult one, but it isn’t out of the question. And even if the ‘Cats do fall short this season, the valuable experience that they are gaining from playing meaningful conference games in November will pay huge dividends in creating a championship atmosphere next year and beyond.

USC – Remarkably, the once invincible Trojans find themselves staring at a potential Poinsettia or Emerald Bowl berth. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Trojans with an inexperienced quarterback and a defense that was almost entirely turned over from last season, but we refused to believe that it would be. Tons of injuries on offense didn’t help, either. But while the Trojans may be down and out this year, they will be right back in the thick of things next year. And for the first time in seven years, they won’t have the target on their back. It should be a lot of fun to see how Pete Carroll rallies the troops next season and beyond now that USC’s aura of invincibility is gone.

Cal – Hard to consider this year anything but a disappointment considering the high hopes coming in. On paper, Cal was right up there with USC among the most talented teams in the country. Jeff Tedford has done an outstanding job recruiting, and while the Bears haven’t been able to get over the hump yet, they seem to be an annual threat to do so. Every year we hype Cal up as one of the conference’s top teams and they end up falling short; they strike me as one of those teams that as soon as we all decide to finally count them out, that will be when it all comes together and they catch everyone off guard.

7-9:

UCLA – The fact that UCLA is the 7th or 8th best team in this conference is about as good of an indicator of the Pac-10’s strength as anything else. Yes, they have five losses; but all to the teams listed above, proving only that they aren’t quite in that tier yet. The Bruins did go into Tennessee with a redshirt freshman quarterback and take that game, and they also dominated what has turned out to be a pretty decent Kansas State team that beat Kansas a few weeks ago. Rick Neuheisel has been stockpiling great young talent, and this team is clearly going in the right direction; they just need to put it all together. A win over Arizona State or USC would make them bowl eligible, too.

Arizona State – Possessing arguably the best defense in the Pac-10, ASU has had a frustrating year due in large part to their inability to get anything going on offense. It is pretty clear that they are only a playmaker or two on offense away from making the jump into the category above. Even without one, Georgia, Cal, and USC were all near-misses that could have easily gone the Sun Devils’ way. If this team can get better play from the offensive line and quarterback next year, both very realistic possibilities, near misses will start turning into wins.

Washington – Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Huskies have a long way to go to get back to respectability. That said, they have the right man to get them there in Steve Sarkisian. This has been made evident by their hard work and no-quit attitude, which helped them play a respectable game against LSU and pull off huge upsets over USC and Arizona. As Coach Sark brings in more talent, the Huskies should continue to rise, and until then they will likely continue to be a thorn in the side of the conferences top dogs.

10:

Washington State – And than there’s the Cougars. While WSU has made a few strides, they are hard to notice or get excited about with how rapidly the rest of the conference is rising. The situation looks pretty dire in Pullman, but on the bright side, there really isn’t anywhere to go but up from here.



THE WRAP UP

Looking at this conference from top to bottom, how can you deny its strength? Every single team (with perhaps the exception of WSU) appears to be either getting better or at the very least maintaining their competitive spot. From the looks of things, the Pac-10 is going to be a flat-out dogfight of excellent teams with top-flight talent for years to come.

Isn’t that what earned the SEC the reputation of being the nation’s best conference?

It’s about time to drop the bias.

Arizona Wildcats (6-2) vs. Cal Bears (6-3)
Saturday, November 14, 4:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -3.0

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

Arizona is the only school in the Pac-10 that has never played in a Rose Bowl. With only four games left this season, the ‘Cats control their own destiny in the race to Pasadena. So is Mike Stoops team the real deal? A defining four game stretch will provide the answer (@Cal, Oregon, @ASU, @USC). Cal started the season with the belief that they would be in the hunt for a Pac-10 title in mid-November, but now the 6-3 Bears are just hoping for a solid bowl game.

Statistically, Arizona looks like the best team in the Pac-10. UA heads to Berkeley ranked 13th nationally in total offense and 17th nationally in total defense. Across the board, the Wildcats are a solidly built football team. Offensively they can run and pass, and defensively they can stop the run and the pass.

As I study this game, there is one particular match up that seems grossly in favor of ‘Zona. QB Nick Foles and the ‘Cats high-powered passing attack will be going up against a Cal defense that ranks 117th nationally in pass defense. While Cal CB Syd’Quan Thompson is an excellent defender, the rest of the secondary appears to be ripe for the picking so I expect Sonny Dykes to exploit the Bears defensive backs with quick passes (specifically receiver screens).

We will found out a lot about Cal’s resolve on Saturday. With RB Jahvid Best sidelined, RB Shane Vereen must once again prove why many consider him to be the best backup tailback in the Pac-10. Vereen has game-breaking ability, and if he can get going early that should open up the passing game for QB Kevin Riley. I think it will be critical for Jeff Tedford’s squad to start fast and ignite the home crowd; otherwise a repeat of last week’s game against Oregon State is likely.

While Cal certainly has the talent to win this game, I think Arizona is peaking just in time for a tough four game stretch. The ‘Cats have already proven they can beat a quality opponent on the road (OSU), and I expect another complete performance from Stoops team this week.

Prediction: Arizona 34 – Cal 27

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Ricky Elmore - Elmore leads UA with 7.5 sacks, and I expect him to be all over QB Kevin Riley.

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Covaughn DeBoskie - With Best out, DeBoskie becomes the second tailback in the rotation. The Bears coaching staff has a lot of confidence in the redshirt freshman, and he will provide a nice change of pace when Vereen is on the sideline.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

Heading into Cal will be no easy task for the Arizona Wildcats, and the Bears will be especially motivated to go out and play a great game for injured teammate and leader Jahvid Best.

The problem, though, is that motivation hasn’t really seemed to get the Bears anywhere this season.

Coming into the year as the favorite to knock off USC atop the Pac-10, the Bears seemed to have the talent and the drive to make this a special year. When they headed into Eugene, they were a road favorite. And they got completely demolished.

They had a chance for redemption, at home, against the USC Trojans in the very next game. Same result.

Against Oregon State, another quality opponent, they once again were completely blown out. On paper, this team has what it takes to compete with almost any team in the nation. On the field though, they lack… well, for lack of a better word, “it”.

Arizona has put together a pretty special season to this point, and I think they have both the talent and the mental toughness to make sure that this one doesn’t get away from them. It should be a good one, but Arizona prevails in the end.

Prediction: Arizona 38 – Cal 28

Washington State Cougars (1-7) vs. Arizona Wildcats (5-2)
Saturday, November 7, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Arizona -31.0

Sam’s Take (39 – 15):

Think Arizona used their bye last week to prepare for Wazzu or get an early start on some of the conference powers coming up on the schedule (@Cal, Ore, @ASU, @USC)?

With all due respect to the Cougars, U of A controls its own destiny in the Rose Bowl race (a bowl the ‘Cats have never been to) so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them peeking ahead a little bit. The Wildcats have two goals this week: 1.) Win the game 2.) Come out of the win with no new injuries. Running backs Nic Grigsby and Greg Nwoko already have injury concerns, so if this is a lopsided game by the middle of the second half (which it almost certainly will be) the UA coaches must not risk the health of key contributors.

In my opinion Arizona is the second best offense that WSU has faced this season (behind Oregon and ahead of USC and Notre Dame). The Cougars are simply not equipped to handle Sonny Dykes quick screen game, and I expect QB Nick Foles to have a huge game. Looking for a bright side to all of this Cougar fans? QB Jeff Tuel is the real deal, and he’s maturing with each new road trip. I expect the stingy ‘Cats D to be all over him in Tucson, but these humbling experiences WILL pay off for Tuel in a couple of years.

Soon we will learn just how good Mike Stoops football team really is, but nothing new will be disclosed to us this week. I expect a good old fashion blowout at the Old Pueblo.

Prediction: Arizona 48 – Washington State 17

Washington State Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Dwight Tardy – Tardy looked good in his limited carries against the Irish, and the Cougs would love to run the ball in order to keep the high-powered Wildcats offense off the field.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Nick Booth – With Grigsby and Nwoko likely out, Keola Antolin and Booth will get the carries against WSU. The UA coaches are excited about what the 6-2 220 pound Booth can bring to the running game.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

The recap to most of Washington State’s games this season have been pretty similar; opponent gets out to a huge early lead and then calls off the dogs. I expect the same this week, even if Arizona does get caught looking ahead to next week, the talent discrepancy is just to large for the Cougars to make up here, especially on the road.

For Arizona, the focus here is to stay healthy, but to also try to execute at a high level, at least while the starters are still in. If they write this game off and play sloppy, they’ll still come away with the win, but it might leave a bad taste in their mouth heading into the Cal game, which they really can’t afford to have carry over.

The Cougars want to continue playing hard for all four quarters and learning good habits. Two of their remaining three games come against the current 8th and 9th teams in the conference (UCLA and @Washington), so pulling one more upset out of their hat this season isn’t completely out of the question; but it looks to be this week.

Prediction: Arizona 41 – Washington State 16

UCLA Bruins (3-3) vs. Arizona Wildcats (4-2)
Saturday, October 24, 3:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Arizona -7.5

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

UCLA and Arizona are heading in opposite directions right now. The Bruins have looked lost as of late, and last week’s beatdown at the hands of Cal was especially disheartening. Meanwhile, Arizona is quietly putting together the best offense in the Pac-10, led by a rising star in QB Nick Foles.

Arizona has been a part of two thrillers in a row, losing a heartbreaker in Seattle and then mounting an incredibly exciting comeback against Stanford. This week, I think Mike Stoops will be able to breathe a little easier but this game is by no means a lock.

A strong argument could be made that QB Nick Foles is the best signal caller in the Pac-10, as his numbers have been nothing short of remarkable (1,152 yards passing 9 TDs 2 INTs, 73.9% completions on the season). The rise of Foles has now made the ‘Cats as balanced as any offense in college football right now, as the running game is still extremely potent with three all-conference caliber performers in the backfield. Nic Grisby appears to be fully healthy, so the UCLA defense will have its hands full this Saturday.

For UCLA, there is some reason to believe the offense can come through this week. Schematically, Norm Chow does a lot of the same things as Stanford, particularly in his use of tight ends and fullbacks. Jim Harbaugh’s club exploited a talented UA secondary last week, so the blueprint is there for Chow to take advantage of. If QB Kevin Prince can make good decisions, UCLA will have a puncher’s chance. I would also like to see RB Jonathan Franklin get the ball more this week, as he is the most explosive threat right now for the Bruins.

As good as CB Alterraun Verner and S Rahim Moore are, the other half of the UCLA secondary could be in for a long day against a dynamic UA passing attack. I believe the ‘Cats offense is going to be a little bit too versatile for UCLA’s D this week, and that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Arizona 35 – UCLA 27

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Logan Paulsen – Paulsen’s play was a bright spot from the Cal game and I think he is the perfect mismatch option for Prince because of his big frame and deceptive speed.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Juron Criner – Any one of six UA receivers could be the player to keep an eye on this week, but Criner seems to be surging right now.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

Looking ahead to this game a few weeks ago, it was looking like a clash between UCLA’s stingy defense and Arizona’s high powered offense. Arizona has kept up their end of the deal, slashing through conference opponents on offense ever since Nick Foles has taken over at QB; but what happened to UCLA’s defense?

The Oregon game was not the defense’s fault, considering the fact that they only gave up one offensive touchdown in that one. But that had a lot to do with Nate Costa’s ineffectiveness; the running defense has been awful for three straight games, giving up a woeful 228 YPG since conference play has started. The Cal game was a complete disaster defensively as the Bears just ripped off big play after big play in routing the Bruins at home.

After seeing what I saw last week, I just don’t believe that UCLA is going to magically re-find themselves on defense on the road against one of the conference’s most explosive offenses. The Bruins might also see a healthy dose of Nic Grigsby, Greg Nwoko, and Keola Antolin if they can’t do anything to prove they can stop the run. And if the rushing attack establishes itself and sets up this passing game… oh my.

Offensively, the Bruins took some nice strides last week; and the Wildcats defense has been less than stellar of late. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UCLA put some points up this week; but I don’t see them slowing down Arizona’s attack, and they won’t be able to keep up with it.

Prediction: Arizona 34 – UCLA 20

Arizona Wildcats 2-1 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Iowa 27 – Arizona 17

Next Week’s Opponent: @Oregon State

With the exception of USC, no Pac-10 team had a rougher week than the Arizona Wildcats. Early reports in the week were indicating that Rob Gronkowski could potentially be ready to return for the Iowa game. And then news came that he would miss the Iowa game. Not long afterward, he was shut down for the entire season.

As if losing the superstar and heart and soul of the offense wasn’t heartbreaking enough, Matt Scott’s abysmal effort certainly was. Plenty of credit is due to Iowa’s defense; and they do have a great one. But as bad as the 4/14, 50 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT line looks on paper, it doesn’t even do justice to how flustered and uncomfortable Scott looked through the first three quarters.

Matt Scott won the hotly-contested job right before the season began, and it was his to lose; and he lost it. Now the Wildcats will turn to Nick Foles, and there is little room for error; if Foles struggles in the role as well, Arizona will be in for an extremely long season.

On the bright side, Foles did play well in his limited time on Saturday, going 6/11 for 55 yards and a touchdown, the team’s only offensive TD of the day. It was in the closing minutes of a game Iowa already had locked down, but hey, positive is positive.

And while we are looking at the positives, look no further than Nic Grigsby, who has established himself as a star running back in an offense usually focused on passing. Grigsby had a respectable 75 yards on 11 carries (against a defense that was heavily defending the run thanks to Scott’s poor play), and also led the team in catches with three for 14 yards. Before Foles’ game ending touchdown drive, Grigsby was virtually the only player on offense that wasn’t invisible out there.

With Nick Foles taking over as the starter, it will be up to the wide receivers to step up their games. Not that they had much of a chance to make plays on Saturday, but Gronkowski’s absence is painfully apparent on every passing play, and someone is going to have to step up and give Foles a target he can rely on.

All-in-all, I think the defense played well, and simply tired out in the 4th quarter. They were on the field for most of the game, after all. The defensive line did a pretty good job disrupting Ricky Stanzi (especially in the first half), and CB Trevin Wade was a force all game long, capped off by a Pick-6 in the first quarter.

If Nick Foles can get the passing game on track, it would keep defenses honest, and in turn make Nic Grigsby even more of a threat. If he can’t, the Wildcats will have to keep leaning hard on the defense and running game, which isn’t exactly what they are built to do. This week’s matchup against Oregon State will let us know in a hurry whether Foles is ready to handle the heat.

Coach Mike Stoops says that Matt Scott will also play this Saturday, leaving little doubt that all eyes will be on the QB position.

Arizona Wildcats (2-0) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0)
Saturday, September 19, 12:35 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Iowa -4.0

Sam’s Take (14 – 4):

This will be a great measuring stick for Mike Stoops and the Wildcats, as they head to a very hostile Kinnick Stadium to play the Iowa Hawkeyes. I foresee a low-scoring game between these two teams, as both Arizona and Iowa play sound defense and will look to run the football on offense.

For Arizona, it all starts with RB Nic Grigsby, who has been spectacular through the first two games (2nd in nation with 325 rushing yards, 3 TDs). Grigsby and backup Keola Antolin have become the focal point of Sonny Dykes’ normally pass-happy offense, but that is to be expected while QB Matt Scott continues to progress as a passer.

This may be the game that we find out if Scott is ready for primetime. Unfortunately for the ‘Cats signal caller, a major piece of the offense will not be back this week as TE Rob Gronkowski will miss yet another game. Gronk has been out since the start of the season, and it looked like he was on track to play Saturday, but his back problems seem to be lingering.

Sonny Dykes must be creative with his other offensive options, as Arizona is facing arguably the best defense in the Big Ten. Iowa may have struggled a bit in the opening win over Northern Iowa, but the Haweyes D will certainly present a lot of problems for UA.

Mark Stoops Wildcats defense will also be a handful for Iowa, and I look for a very talented UA secondary to make things extremely difficult for QB Ricky Stanzi. The key for Iowa’s offense will be whether or not they can establish a running game.

In the end I think Nic Grigsby will be the biggest difference maker on the field Saturday, and his stellar play combined with another strong defensive performance by UA should be just enough to secure the win.

Prediction: Arizona 24 – Iowa 20

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Trevin Wade - He is starting to emerge as a big-play cornerback who can intercept anything in his area, and I look for him to make an impact this week.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: RBs Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson - The loss of projected starter Jewel Hampton (out for season with knee injury) opened the door for Wegher and Robinson to emerge, and so far, they have not disappointed. I expect both to see significant time and they will be two major offensive keys this Saturday.

Dave’s Take (14 – 4):

An extremely ugly win that should have been a loss to Northern Iowa in the season opener has dropped the Hawkeyes out of the national spotlight; but this team is still very strong, and even if the general public is willing to ignore this, I’m not.

Equipped with a solid defensive line and one of the best linebacking cores in the country, I believe Iowa will be prepared to slow down Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin and force Matt Scott to make some big plays to beat them. Is he ready for it?

I’m not sure that he is. Scott hasn’t played poorly in his first two games, but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as strong as Iowa’s, and he hasn’t taken his game on the road yet, either.

On defense, Arizona showed us plenty in shutting down Central Michigan, and while they weren’t at the top of their game in giving up 17 points to Northern Arizona, I chalk that up to not taking that game all too seriously. Iowa has a decent attack led by QB Ricky Stanzi, but I’m not too worried about the Wildcats’ athletic defense.

I think this one will be a good smash-mouth football game, and yards should be difficult to come by. If Rob Gronkowski had returned for this one and given Matt Scott that safety net, I may have taken the Wildcats, but in a game that will likely come down to who makes less mistakes, I have to take the more experienced quarterback at home to eek out the win.

Prediction: Iowa 17 – Arizona 13

Just wanted to make this post to help you get down to the nitty gritty and get you all caught up on your favorite team’s (and rival’s) day at Media Day.

Video

The whole three hour and 30 minute event can be seen here, if you didn’t have the chance to see it live and you have a bit of extra time on your hands. In case you just want to see a particular team or two’s section, we’ve provided a time code to help you out;

Arizona’s Mike Stoops and FS Cam Nelson – 01:47:58
Arizona State’s Dennis Erickson and OLB Mike Nixon – 01:14:36
California’s Jeff Tedford and RB Jahvid Best – 02:08:45
Oregon’s Chip Kelly and CB Walter Thurmond III – 02:38:36
Oregon State’s Mike Riley and OLB Keaton Kristick – 02:25:26
Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh and RB Toby Gerhart – 00:58:01
UCLA’s Rick Neuheisel and MLB Reggie Carter – 00:39:45
USC’s Pete Carroll and FS Taylor Mays – 02:47:31
Washington’s Steve Sarkisian and OLB Donald Butler – 00:28:27
Washington State’s Paul Wulff and C Kenny Alfred – 00:17:58

Quotes

Pac-10.org has put up detailed quotes from each coach’s 15 minutes of Media Day fame. ESPN’s Ted Miller took some quick blurbs yesterday as each coach took the mic, summing up the jist of each coach’s key points.

These are the two places I’d suggest getting your quote fix.

Arizona – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
Arizona State – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
California – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
Oregon – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
Oregon State – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
Stanford – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
UCLA – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
USC – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller
Washington – Pac-10.org - Ted Miller
Washington State – Pac-10.org – Ted Miller

Anyone else wish they could fastforward through August straight to September 3rd?