MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS
Las Vegas, Nevada
#18 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) VS. #14 BYU Cougars (10-2)
Tuesday, December 22, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -2.5

Sam’s Take (54 – 21):

For the second straight season Oregon State narrowly missed out on a Pac-10 title and the pride and pageantry that comes with representing the conference in the Rose Bowl. Oh, and lets not forget about the all-you-can-eat prime rib at Lawry’s Restaurant in Pasadena. So how will the Beavers find the motivation to play in the Las Vegas Bowl? I’m not sure that they will, but Mike Riley’s club has an exceptional record in bowl games and a win vs. BYU would give OSU six bowl victories in a row.

As I look at this match-up I see two key areas that could decide the game.

1. BYU pass offense vs. OSU pass defense – Max Hall and the potent Cougar offense will be going up against an OSU secondary that struggled against the pass and will be without its most experienced cornerback (CB Tim Clark). I have no doubt Bronco Mendenhall will go right after the Beavers DBs (especially Brandon Hardin) so OSU must be ready to stand up to the pass heavy attack all night.

2. ‘Quizz Rodgers vs. BYU run defense – this is a strength vs. strength match-up as the Pac-10’s third leading rusher (1,377 20 TDs) will be going up against the nation’s 23rd best run defense. Although the Cougars have a stout front seven, I still expect the OSU gameplan to include plenty of ‘Quizz. If the Beavers establish a ground game early, QB Sean Canfield and Co. should have plenty of opportunities in the passing game.

This will be the fifth year in a row that BYU has played a Pac-10 school in the Las Vegas Bowl (2-2 entering this contest). I have no doubt that the Cougs will be ready for OSU, but something tells me this one could go a lot like the Arizona-BYU game in last year’s Vegas Bowl. The Beavers have enough firepower to score with BYU, and I actually think OSU would prefer a shootout.

I’ll take Oregon State in a competitive and entertaining game.

Prediction: Oregon State 37 – BYU 31

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: DT Stephen Paea – For Mark Banker’s defense to frustrate BYU’s offense I believe Paea will be a key. Few defensive tackles are as effective as he is at wreaking havoc in the middle, and that could cause trouble for Max Hall and the Cougars.

BYU Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Dennis Pitta – Pitta is one of the best tight ends in America, and could be a huge match-up problem for OSU. I expect the Mackey Award finalist to be an integral part of the Cougars offensive gameplan.

Dave’s Take (55 – 20):

Well this is a difficult task. I think BYU is going to win this game, but I can’t quite put my finger on why.

We could talk about bowl motivation, and how after suffering the letdown of not going to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State won’t want to be here.

But that doesn’t really work, considering they won under the same circumstances last year, and with five straight bowl game victories, motivation doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Beavers.

We could talk about how the Cougars are statistically stronger across the board, but what does that really prove? The Pac-10 top to bottom this year was arguably the strongest conference in the country while the Mountain West was fairly weak after the top 3.

BYU got both TCU and Utah at home, getting blown out by the Horned Frogs and squeaking by the Utes in OT. That OT thriller was their second huge win of the season, the first coming in the massive upset over Oklahoma in week one. That one was a bit tarnished by Bradford’s injury, but they were playing hard even before the injury took place.

Maybe it is those big marquee wins that have me leaning BYU’s way?

We all know how strong of a team Oregon State is; they were, after all, in a position to win the Pac-10 with a win over Oregon, and they pushed the Ducks to the limit in a hard-faught game. Losses to USC and Arizona also came by less then a touchdown.

But when it comes to big wins, the Beavers only had two wins against teams above .500; Stanford and Cal. Both very good teams at 8-4, but would you consider either win a marquee win? Stanford struggled on the road this season (with the exception of USC of course), and Cal is such a quirky team that you never know what to expect from them.

Does any of this matter? Probably not. But I guess the reason I like BYU here is that these two teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, but the Cougars have shown me that they can dig deep and win the close game late against tough opponents (Oklahoma, Utah). Oregon State beat Cal and Stanford by jumping out to big early leads and hanging on; they haven’t shown us yet this season that they can win close against tough teams, and that might be the main reason they are here instead of in Pasedena in the first place.

I expect this game to come down to the fourth quarter, and Max Hall to have a few more tricks up his sleeve.

Prediction: BYU 31 – Oregon State 27

Oregon State Beavers (8-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (9-2)
Thursday, December 3, 6:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -9.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Year*

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Last year I watched in stunned silence as Oregon throttled Oregon State in Corvallis, and all I remember thinking by the time the 65-38 massacre ended was “Will the Beavers ever have a chance to truly get redemption?” Here we are just one year later, and somehow, that question can be answered with an emphatic yes. Now the stakes are higher than ever, as this will be the first time in the history of the Civil War that both programs can clinch a Rose Bowl berth with a victory.

I see two key areas that will be deciding factors in the War for the Roses.

1. Oregon running game vs. Oregon State run defense – This is the most obvious strength vs. strength match up. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-10 and eighth nationally in rushing offense, while the Beavers rank first in the Pac-10 and 13th nationally in run defense. Obviously Oregon easily won this battle last year, so it will be interesting to see how Mark Banker’s unit performs on Thursday.

2. Oregon State passing game vs. Oregon pass defense – This appears to be the second biggest strength vs. strength match up. OSU heads to Eugene with the best passing offense in the Pac-10 (24th nationally) and QB Sean Canfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference. Despite season ending injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper, the Ducks still rank second in the Pac-10 against pass (29th nationally).

In my opinion, both defenses will struggle in this game. I have no doubt that Mark Banker will have a great game plan this week, but it may not matter. When the Ducks are rolling, they can execute their high-powered attack against any defensive scheme in the country. I also think Nick Aliotti’s unit will be in for a long game. The Ducks have yet to face ‘Quizz Rodgers, and the balanced Beaver attack can score in a variety of ways.

Ultimately, I believe Autzen Stadium will be the difference… again. Jeremiah Masoli has another gear when he plays at home, which makes Oregon’s offensive attack that much tougher to contain. I expect Masoli and LaMichael James to get going early, which will then open passing lanes for the talented Ducks receiving corps. While I expect the Beavers to match UO score for score until late in the second half, Mike Riley’s club will come up a little short in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

Here’s hoping for a classic!

Prediction: Oregon 42 – Oregon State 38

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni has been one of the biggest surprises on this OSU offense in 2009, and the sophomore will be a huge part of the passing game again this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: FS T.J. Ward – Ward is a physical defensive back who should play a huge role in defending the run as well as the pass. I look for him to have a big impact this week.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

When this game was scheduled back at the beginning of the season to be the prime time game on ESPN Thursday night, no one could have imagined just how big this game would be.

For either team to have the chance to clinch the Rose Bowl in this one is quite a feat; but winner take all? This is the sort of thing that you see in movies.

After going 10 straight years (1997-2006) trading blows with the home team winning every time, Oregon State finally bucked the trend in 2007 with a double OT winner at Autzen. The Ducks returned the favor in 2008, stomping the Beavers in Corvallis and costiing them a trip to the Rose Bowl. While there is little doubt that home field advantage will still play a big role in this game, the fact that the road team has won the last two games adds an interesting wrinkle.

As much as I really do believe the Beavers have a great chance in this one, I can’t pick against the Ducks, especially at home. The Ducks have now put up 42+ points in seven straight games that Jeremiah Masoli has started, and since conference play has begun they have just mowed through top conference opponents (dropping #6 Cal by 38 and #5 USC by 27).

I expect a much more competitive game than last year, but can’t find enough of an edge for the Beavers to overrule the fact that the game is in Autzen.

Prediction: Oregon 48 – Oregon State 42

Oregon State Beavers 8-3 Overall (6-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 42 – Washington State 10

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Full disclosure, I didn’t get a chance to see Oregon State cruise to victory against WSU, but is a recap really necessary? I mean, Wazzu attracted a grand total of 16,167 fans to Martin Stadium and I would venture a guess that many of them were wearing black and orange.

The Cougars just aren’t a great measuring stick for any other Pac-10 program this season, so I find it pointless to review the predictably lopsided statistics from Saturday’s game. Instead of going over how great Canfield and ‘Quizz played or how easily Mark Banker’s defense seemed to handle the Cougs, let’s instead talk about two things that are currently on my mind regarding this OSU program:

1. Mike Riley is my favorite coach in the Pac-10 and has been for a while now. He is a true class act who maximizes the ability of his players and seems to embrace the overachieving role. With Saturday’s win at WSU, Riley moved into second place on OSU’s coaching record chart (64), and he deserves every bit of success that he has earned in Corvallis. I fully expect him to retire as the Beavers all time winningest coach (the mark is 74 wins).

2. Barring a freak injury in practice, OSU will have everyone healthy and ready to go for the War for the Roses (Brennan Olander may be the only exception). Beating WSU was a foregone conclusion, but leaving Pullman without major injury concerns was the real victory.

Now the stage is set for arguably the most epic Civil War of all time (that’s right, even more epic than the one from 1861). Will a healthy ‘Quizz be the difference maker that was missing from last year’s meltdown? Can QB Sean Canfield continue his dream season by leading the Beavs to a win at Autzen (and in the process wrap up Pac-10 QB of the year)? Can Mark Banker’s defense hold up against the Ducks powerful misdirection spread attack?

I sure as heck don’t know the answer to any of these questions, but it will be a lot of fun to watch them get answered on December 3rd.

Oregon State Beavers (7-3) vs. Washington State Cougars (1-9)
Saturday, November 21, 2:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -31.0

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

Oregon State could be one win away from a Civil War for the roses… a Ducks win that is. With all due respect to Washington State, Beaver fans should pay more attention to the game in Tucson than the massacre that will surely take place in Pullman. OSU is playing their absolute best football of the 209 season right now, while the Cougars are getting worse by the week. Even if an expected snowstorm rolls through Martin Stadium, I just don’t see WSU staying within five touchdowns of OSU.

I am most interested to see how long Mike Riley keeps the first team in on Saturday (particularly the offensive unit). I would really hate to see ‘Quizz miss another Civil War with Rose Bowl implications because of an unnecessary injury, but I know that Beaver fans want to see him pile up enough yards against the Cougs to keep him in the Pac-10 Player of the Year race.

I expect to see OSU pounce on the Cougars from the opening kickoff, and QB Sean Canfield should have a field day against the nation’s 3rd worst pass defense. In the running game, I think this is the perfect time to increase the roles of RB Ryan McCants and Jovan Stevenson. It really wont matter who is in the backfield for OSU, as the Cougs D-line has been decimated by injuries and an offensive lineman (Michael Pfeiff) will now man one of the defensive tackle spots for the game.

Bottom line; Oregon State can choose its score in this one, and I can only hope that both teams come out of the game injury free (as Wazzu still has an Apple Cup to defend).

Prediction: Oregon State 48 – Washington State 10

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Gabe Miller – Miller and fellow defensive end Matt LaGrone have really emerged in the last few weeks, and the sacks are finally coming for this OSU defense.

Washington State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Jeffrey Solomon – Solomon played well against UCLA, and will have a chance to build on that performance this week..

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Plenty of fans around the Pac-10 will be rooting for the Washington State Cougars to pull off the upset of the year in college football; it sure would open up a whole lot of Rose Bowl scenarios.

Sadly, it is difficult to even entertain the the notion of this one being competitive. With the way these two teams are playing right now, you could argue that Oregon State could compete with just about any team in the country; and you’d be hard-pressed to find a dozen teams that Washington State would have a great chance of beating.

Unless Oregon State inexplicably sleepwalks through the entire game and Washington State plays the game of their life, the Beavers should have this one locked up well before the second quarter comes to a close.

Full speed ahead to the end of the season. Oregon State has a Civil War for the ages coming up, and Washington State will get one last chance at a second win (and oh what a win it would be) in the Apple Cup. If this were a video game, both sides would likely just “SIM” this one to get to the good stuff; but alas, let’s get it over with.

Prediction: Oregon State 41 – Washington State 9

Oregon State Beavers 7-3 Overall (5-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 48  – Washington 21

Next Week’s Opponent: @Washington State

Beaver fans, you may have to temporarily put aside your hatred for the Ducks in order to embrace a potential Civil War for the ages. If Oregon beats Arizona, the stage will essentially be set (sorry Wazzu). In fact, an Oregon win in Tucson would give OSU a better chance to control its own destiny considering the fact that UA beat the Beavers earlier this season. If Oregon beats UA, and OSU beats UO, the Beavers will hold the tiebreaker over the Ducks and Stanford (assuming the Cardinal win out). So for one week, cheering for the enemy is acceptable.

As for Saturday’s win over Washington, that was exactly the kind of performance Oregon State needed at this point in the season. Mike Riley’s club is absolutely rolling, and I have a hard time believing many teams in America could beat OSU right now. I remember telling a friend of mine early in the season “How good would Oregon State be if they had more than just the Rodgers brothers on offense?” Well, I got my answer in these last few games. As good as Oregon and Stanford have been offensively, I don’t think OSU is far behind. ‘Quizz and James have been great, but I don’t need to talk about them.

Instead let’s talk about the absolute brilliance of QB Sean Canfield. The senior could very well be the best QB in the Pac-10, and he turned in an especially impressive performance against the Dawgs (21/29 185 yards 4 TDs 0 INTs). Canfield hit seven different receivers against UW, and I continue to be amazed at the chemistry that he has developed with TE Joe Halahuni (who made only two catches but both were TDs).

Defensively, the Beavers limited a good Washington offense to only 274 total yards. Statistically, QB Jake Locker had a solid day (14/23 153 yards 3 TDs 1 INT) but he was pressured all game and sacked four times. Mark Banker’s D has steadily improved throughout the year, and the unit deserves a lot of credit for never losing confidence.

Up next for OSU are those friendly Cougars. I recommend playing ‘Quizz, James, Canfield and the first team as little as possible because a serious injury is not worth risking. Assuming all goes well in Pullman, a dream Civil War could follow.

Ding Dong’ the merry-oh, sing it high, sing it low.
Let them know
The Wicked Witch is dead!

For some reason, this song was running through my head as I watched Stanford pummel USC.

For Trojans fans, it has been a fantastic ride for the last seven years. So fantastic, in fact, that Trojan fans are completely guilty of taking it for granted. Every single one of them (myself, included).

Virtually every hiccup along the way has cost USC a trip to the National Championship, which in turn turned the Rose Bowl into a consolation prize of sorts. USC fans are always disappointed to “only” win the Pac-10 and “only” go to the Rose Bowl.

And that’s one of the reasons why fans around the conference have hated the USC Trojans and their fans for the better part of a decade now, and as Stanford drove the final nail into the coffin that Washington had opened and Oregon had closed, there is plenty of reason for the rest of the conference to celebrate.

A friend of mine asked me, “Dave, you know your Pac-10; Is USC done for? I mean, I know they are this season, but are they done for good?”

I’m surprised at how many people are living in the moment so badly that they are actually asking this question. NO, USC isn’t done for good. They still have one of the best coaches in the country and a never-ending stable of 4 and 5-star talent. They will be a serious contender for the Pac-10 title next year, as well as the years to come.

The beauty, though, is that they won’t be the only serious contender. 2009 will not mark the beginning of the end of USC as a football power; but it will mark the end of their stranglehold over the rest of the conference.

PAC-10 ON THE RISE – FIVE TEAMS IN THE TOP 25

Many college football fans are going to continue to be ignorant and disregard the Pac-10.

They will continue to laugh off the conference for no reason at all, and ignore evidence of its strength. They will continue to hold the ridiculous double standard that when SEC teams beat each other up (which has been non-existent this year), it is an indication of how strong the conference is, but when the Pac-10 beats itself up, it is an indication of how weak the conference is. How does this even begin to make sense?

Of course, if you are one of these people, you are scoffing and preparing your “LOL PAC-10 TEH SUX” comment. Good for you.

But for the more reasonable, it is hard to ignore that the Pac-10 is on the rise.

Perhaps the strongest evidence of the Pac-10’s strength is the amount of BCS ranked teams it has. Heading into this weekend, the Pac-10 currently has 20% of the teams in the BCS top 25 with five; #11 Oregon, #17 Stanford, #18 USC, #19 Oregon State, and #25 California. The ACC and Big 10 each have four, the SEC, Big East, and Mountain West have three, the Big 12 has two, and the WAC has one.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Pac-10 is the only conference that schedules only three out of conference games. They actually have to play a true round robin, and don’t have the opportunity to dodge big conference opponents or schedule an extra softy like other teams do.

TEAM-BY-TEAM, EVERYONE IS GETTING BETTER

What impresses me most about the Pac-10 this season is that as great and deep as the conference has proven to be this season, from the looks of it, it is only going to get better.

1-6:

Oregon – Still in control of their own destiny atop the Pac-10, Oregon has steam-rolled through most of their opponents, including USC and Cal. Their two losses have come against very good ranked opponents; and they’d love to have the Boise State game back as that continues to look more and more like an anomaly. The Mike Belotti to Chip Kelly transition was seamless, and with a fantastic and innovative system in place on both sides of the ball, Oregon will be a power for years to come. They have both Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James returning next year, and this was the year for the offensive and defensive lines to rebuild; both should be even stronger in 2010.

Stanford – Their late surge has given them back-to-back wins over conference powerhouses in Oregon and USC as well as a chance of a trip to the Rose Bowl if the cards fall right. Jim Harbaugh has turned this team around in a hurry, and they have taken on his personality as a hard-nosed physical team that never stops working. This was supposed to be the year to break in Andrew Luck, but he has already emerged as a star at the quarterback position. He will likely be even better next season, and Harbaugh’s excellent ability to recruit will be even easier after the display the Cardinal have put on over the last few weeks.

Oregon State – Year in and year out, Mike Riley churns out one of the most consistently strong teams in the Pac-10. The Beavers have finished in the Top 25 for three straight years, and from the looks of it will keep that streak alive here in 2009. Their excellent post-September play (as always) has put them in a position to take at least a share of the Pac-10 title with a win over their rival Ducks. Mike Riley is one of the best in the country at recruiting and developing players into his system, and there is no reason to believe the Beavers won’t continue to be a threat to make noise in the conference for as long as he’s at the helm.

Arizona – Hard to believe Mike Stoops was on the hot seat not too long ago. With the help of Sonny Dykes and the emergence of Nick Foles at QB, the Wildcats have an electrifying offense. They also have an extremely fast and talented defensive unit. With Oregon and USC still ahead, the path to the Rose Bowl is a difficult one, but it isn’t out of the question. And even if the ‘Cats do fall short this season, the valuable experience that they are gaining from playing meaningful conference games in November will pay huge dividends in creating a championship atmosphere next year and beyond.

USC – Remarkably, the once invincible Trojans find themselves staring at a potential Poinsettia or Emerald Bowl berth. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Trojans with an inexperienced quarterback and a defense that was almost entirely turned over from last season, but we refused to believe that it would be. Tons of injuries on offense didn’t help, either. But while the Trojans may be down and out this year, they will be right back in the thick of things next year. And for the first time in seven years, they won’t have the target on their back. It should be a lot of fun to see how Pete Carroll rallies the troops next season and beyond now that USC’s aura of invincibility is gone.

Cal – Hard to consider this year anything but a disappointment considering the high hopes coming in. On paper, Cal was right up there with USC among the most talented teams in the country. Jeff Tedford has done an outstanding job recruiting, and while the Bears haven’t been able to get over the hump yet, they seem to be an annual threat to do so. Every year we hype Cal up as one of the conference’s top teams and they end up falling short; they strike me as one of those teams that as soon as we all decide to finally count them out, that will be when it all comes together and they catch everyone off guard.

7-9:

UCLA – The fact that UCLA is the 7th or 8th best team in this conference is about as good of an indicator of the Pac-10’s strength as anything else. Yes, they have five losses; but all to the teams listed above, proving only that they aren’t quite in that tier yet. The Bruins did go into Tennessee with a redshirt freshman quarterback and take that game, and they also dominated what has turned out to be a pretty decent Kansas State team that beat Kansas a few weeks ago. Rick Neuheisel has been stockpiling great young talent, and this team is clearly going in the right direction; they just need to put it all together. A win over Arizona State or USC would make them bowl eligible, too.

Arizona State – Possessing arguably the best defense in the Pac-10, ASU has had a frustrating year due in large part to their inability to get anything going on offense. It is pretty clear that they are only a playmaker or two on offense away from making the jump into the category above. Even without one, Georgia, Cal, and USC were all near-misses that could have easily gone the Sun Devils’ way. If this team can get better play from the offensive line and quarterback next year, both very realistic possibilities, near misses will start turning into wins.

Washington – Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Huskies have a long way to go to get back to respectability. That said, they have the right man to get them there in Steve Sarkisian. This has been made evident by their hard work and no-quit attitude, which helped them play a respectable game against LSU and pull off huge upsets over USC and Arizona. As Coach Sark brings in more talent, the Huskies should continue to rise, and until then they will likely continue to be a thorn in the side of the conferences top dogs.

10:

Washington State – And than there’s the Cougars. While WSU has made a few strides, they are hard to notice or get excited about with how rapidly the rest of the conference is rising. The situation looks pretty dire in Pullman, but on the bright side, there really isn’t anywhere to go but up from here.



THE WRAP UP

Looking at this conference from top to bottom, how can you deny its strength? Every single team (with perhaps the exception of WSU) appears to be either getting better or at the very least maintaining their competitive spot. From the looks of things, the Pac-10 is going to be a flat-out dogfight of excellent teams with top-flight talent for years to come.

Isn’t that what earned the SEC the reputation of being the nation’s best conference?

It’s about time to drop the bias.

Washington Huskies (3-6) vs. Oregon State Beavers (6-3)
Saturday, November 14, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -13.0

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

Anyone surprised to see Oregon State getting better every week? With all due respect to Washington State, OSU is essentially one win away from another high stakes Civil War showdown. The Beavers are playing lights out in all three phases of the game, and a conference title is still possible if a few things go their way.

Meanwhile, the Huskies are desperately trying to fight their way into the postseason. UW must win out (and that still might not be enough), and the first step will be finding a way to end an 11 game road-losing streak.

The recipe for stopping Mike Riley’s club used to be simple; contain the Rodgers brothers. But in recent weeks, QB Sean Canfield has forced defensive coordinators to completely re-write their game plans. The senior signal caller is completing 70% of his passes this season, and he is coming off of a season-high 342 yard game against Cal.

Suddenly the Beavers are full of playmakers, as Adeniji, Halahuni, Kjos, Bishop, and Nichols are all contributing. I expect more of the same from the OSU offense this week, as the unit will be facing a UW D that ranks 102nd nationally in total defense and 111th against the pass.

I can only see one path to victory for the Dawgs this week, and it requires a huge effort from QB Jake Locker. As bad as UW has been defending the pass, OSU is even worse (113th nationally in pass defense). If Locker can regain his early season form, the Huskies may have a punchers chance.

Ultimately, I think the Beavers will overwhelm Washington with a balanced offensive attack.

Prediction: Oregon State 37 – Washington 23

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Devin Aguilar – Every week I tend to spotlight a UW receiver, as this really is a talented group. The wideouts will have to be particularly productive Saturday against a vulnerable secondary, and I feel like Aguilar will rise to the occasion.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni looks like the best tight end in the conference right now, and I expect him to have another big game this week.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

Washington has played some very competitive football this season, but they’ve also reminded us that the rebuilding of a program doesn’t happen overnight.

Oregon State, meanwhile, has taken to their yearly trend of getting better as the season goes on, and with the way they are playing right now they have a shot against anyone in the conference.

One of the biggest stories this season has been the emergence of Sean Canfield into a star quarterback. It’s hard to believe there was actually supposed to be a QB battle with Lyle Moevao this fall. No quarterback in the Pac-10 has been much better than Canfield, and his season has helped other Beavers like Joe Halahuni and Damola Adeniji take their game to the next level as well.

The Washington defense has a good mentor in Nick Holt, but they don’t quite have the talent level yet to slow down a high-powered offense like this one. The Huskies will put some points up as well, but I expect a comfortable Beavers victory.

Prediction: Oregon State 38 – Washington 20

UCLA Bruins (3-4) vs. Oregon State Beavers (4-3)
Saturday, October 31, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -9.5

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

Both Oregon State and UCLA suffered disappointing losses last week, but for far different reasons. The Beavers gave the Trojans everything they wanted plus some (OSU outgained ‘SC 482-429 yards), and a special teams breakdown may have been the only thing preventing OSU from a 3-1 record in the Pac-10. Meanwhile, UCLA found a way to lose to UA despite generating five turnovers, as the Bruins offense looked hopelessly lost.

It’s hard to envision a UCLA win here, especially with the way OSU’s Sean Canfield is playing (1,734 yards 11 TDs, 4 INTS, 68.2 % completions). Obviously, we know the Rodgers brothers will always get their yards, but when Canfield is throwing well the Beavers can pile up points on anyone. I have been most impressed by the offensive balance from Mike Riley’s team in the last few games, as players like WR Damola Adeniji, and TE Joe Halahuni have given the offense another dimension.

A strong argument could be made that RB ‘Quizz Rodgers deserves to go to New York for the Heisman Presentation. He has accounted for 1,089 total yards (810 rushing) and 15 TDs, including a 113 yard, 1 TD day against a Trojans D that ranks fifth nationally against the run. While UCLA features a stout front seven led by DT Brain Price, I don’t think any defense can stop ‘Quizz right now.

For UCLA, the offense has to find an identity this week. As strong as Oregon State has looked on offense, the defense has proven to be vulnerable (particularly against the pass). I am interested to see what Rick Neuheisel does at the QB position if Kevin Prince struggles early. Will we see QB Richard Brehaut take meaningful snaps in Corvallis? RB Jonathan Franklin has proven to be a reliable playmaker, but the overall lack of explosion in Norm Chow’s offense is very disconcerting.

I still have great respect for the UCLA defense, but until the offense can show some signs of life, the losing skid will continue. I look for Oregon State to come away with a workmanlike victory at Reser Stadium.

Prediction: Oregon State 31 – UCLA 20

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: S Rahim Moore – The highly-instinctive Moore has been a bright spot for the Bruins all season, and he enters Saturday’s game looking to add to his NCAA-best seven interceptions.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Casey Kjos – Kjos only has six catches on the year, but he showed great route-running ability last week against USC and I believe he will contribute more and more as the season progresses.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

After yet another respectable game last week (albeit in a losing effort), Oregon State has firmly placed themselves in that “best of the rest” category with Arizona behind Oregon and USC. UCLA on the other hand looks completely lost; even with all of the turnovers last week, the offense never gave the team a chance to win.

As brilliantly as Sean Canfield has been playing, the real story in this one just might be UCLA’s inability to stop the run. Since conference play has started, UCLA has given up over 200 yards rushing in three of the four games they have played, with their “best” effort coming against Stanford where they gave up 174 yards rushing and Toby Gerhart had 134 yards and three touchdowns.

Since that Stanford game, UCLA has given up 719 rushing yards, good for just under 240/game. Going up against one of the premiere backs in the entire country in Jacquizz Rodgers, do you really expect things to get better this week?

Even if the Bruins can find some answers on offense against a less-than-stellar Beavers defense, I can’t see them finding any way to keep up with this offense, which has been outstanding in conference play and should continue to be this week. With two potentially winnable games at home against Washington and ASU as well as a road game against Washington State coming up, UCLA’s bowl dreams aren’t completely shattered just yet; but I don’t think the game in Corvallis is going to help any.

Prediction: Oregon State 34 – UCLA 17

Oregon State Beavers (4-2) vs. USC Trojans (5-1)
Saturday, October 24, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -21.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

Might USC overlook this game against Oregon State given the fact that it’s sandwiched between the dramatic win in South Bend and the potential Halloween showdown in Eugene next week?

I wouldn’t count on it.

The Trojans are well aware of what the Beavers can do, especially when #1 has the ball. Obviously, Jacquizz Rodgers had his coming out party on national television last season when he ripped through a star-studded ‘SC defense. The question is, can he do it again? So far this season ‘Quizz has been spectacular, ranking second in Pac-10 with 697 rushing yards and second nationally with 13 TDs. He will certainly have to be at his best this Saturday, as the ‘SC defense ranks fourth nationally against the run. QB Sean Canfield must play mistake free, while continuing to involve receivers other than James Rodgers in the passing game (as he has done recently with Adeniji).

For USC, the gameplan should be rather simple in this one: throw the ball. While Oregon State has been very solid against the run (18th nationally), the Beavers have been atrocious against the pass (114th nationally). QB Matt Barkley has looked better every week, and I expect to see him attack OSU through the air early and often.

If the Trojans were traveling to Reser Stadium I would strongly consider picking the upset here, especially considering the bye week that Mike Riley had to prepare his team. But this series hasn’t been too exciting at the Coliseum (last OSU win was in 1960), and while I expect a competitive game, ‘SC should pull away in the fourth.

Prediction: USC 35 – Oregon State 20

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: The Whole O-Line - In last season’s meeting with USC, the OSU o-line was tremendous all night. The unit must play at a similar level again Saturday in order to give ‘Quizz a chance to hit a few big plays.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Chris Galippo - Galippo has been solid as a rock all season, and he will be a key to keeping ‘Quizz in check.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

Man, I owe Beavers fans an apology. Not that you guys care all that much I’m sure about how a random Pac-10 blogger picks for or against your team (especially when they keep making a fool out of him), but I have been downright brutal to Oregon State. In fact, I haven’t picked the Beavers since week one!

After two straight wins over solid opponents, I’m sold on Oregon State; I won’t be underrating them anymore. But with all of that in mind, I have to pick against them this week.

We all remember what happened the last time Jacquizz Rodgers faced the USC Trojans. Rodgers led the way to a stunning upset in 2008, the second time in three years that the Beavers upset USC. The Rodgers brothers are just as dangerous as they were the last time these teams met, and the way Sean Canfield is playing, the passing game could even be better.

I just don’t see USC letting this one get away, though. They’ve already had their gut-check this season in Washington, and there are plenty of players left on this team that still feel the burn from last season. The revenge factor aside, there is also simply the respect factor here; Oregon State has earned it against USC.

Matt Barkley and the offense appear to be clicking, and potentially having Ronald Johnson back up to game speed could help. Defensively, ‘Quizz won’t be an unknown true freshman this time around.

By the numbers, USC matches up well on both sides of the ball here; but this feels like the type of game that you need to throw the numbers out on. Oregon State went into Arizona State’s house and ran up a big lead early on their excellent defense, so I’m not going to assume USC’s defense is going to completely shut down the Beavers. I do feel, however, that they will do enough to pick up the win. (Or, OSU will burn both Sam and me for the third straight time.)

Prediction: USC 31 – Oregon State 17

Oregon State Beavers 4-2 Overall (2-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 38 – Stanford 28

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

The NHL is back, playoff baseball is under way, and the Oregon State Beavers have kicked their game up to the next level. It must be October.

It took a last second drive to beat UNLV. The non-conference home winning streak ended at 26 at the hands of Cincinnati. And then the Arizona Wildcats came into Corvallis with a quarterback making his first start and out-shot the Beavers. Cue the critics (myself included); the Beavers are in trouble this year.

How do they respond? They go into Arizona State and dismantle one of the conference’s best defenses. Then they follow that up with another powerhouse performance, jumping out to a commanding lead on the first place Stanford Cardinal and never looking back. Over the last two games, the Beavers have outscored their opponents 52-10 in the first half.

Oregon State racked up 463 yards of offense in their dominant effort Saturday. Jacquizz Rodgers reminded us just how special of a talent he is, putting together a simply masterful performance; 33 carries for 189 yards and four touchdowns and five catches for another 82 yards. The next time Toby Gerhart and “best running back in the Pac-10″ get brought up in the same sentence, it’ll be awfully hard not to think of this outstanding day for ‘Quizz.

Sean Canfield had a very nice day going 22/33 with 290 yards and connecting for a touchdown with James Rodgers, who finished the day with six catches and 78 yards. Demola Adeniji, who has really established himself as another go-to guy in this offense, also had five catches for 60 yards.

It’s been hard to gauge the Beavers’ defense over the last two games; the final box score shows plenty of yards given up for the second straight week, but this is also the second straight week that the game’s outcome was decided very early on. With USC up next after the bye, the Beavers defense is going to have to be strong in all four quarters to come out on top.

Mike Riley has an extra week to prepare while USC has their hands full with Notre Dame, and we all remember what happened the last time ‘Quizz Rodgers faced USC. It should be a fun one at the Coliseum with the Pac-10’s pecking order hanging in the balance.