ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
Pasadena, California
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) VS. #7 Oregon Ducks (10-2)
Friday, January 1, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -4.0

Sam’s Take (58 – 23):

One of the most memorable seasons in Oregon football history will come to an end on Friday, as the Ducks are looking to win their first Rose Bowl since 1917. Chip Kelly’s squad has been through it all in 2009, and when you consider how the season started there is no doubt that Kelly and his staff deserve all the praise they have received.

As for The Ohio State University, this game represents yet another opportunity to prove its worth on the big stage. Clearly, marquee non-conference wins have been tough to come by for the Buckeyes, but its important to realize that Jim Tressel’s team is almost always involved in the BCS by seasons end (a commendable achievement). OSU will be making its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1997.

The most exciting match-up to watch for in this one will be the high-octane Ducks offense versus the highly underrated OSU defense. We have watched the Ducks run roughshod over opposing defenses all season, but could this Buckeye defense do what Boise State did all the way back in week one? A look at the numbers reveals a tale of two units that are very evenly matched. The Ducks head to Pasadena with the 7th best scoring offense in the country and the sixth best rushing attack, while the Bucks will counter with a D that ranks 5th nationally in total defense and 5th nationally in run defense. Should be fun right?

While I hold the OSU D in high regard, I don’t think Jim Heacock’s unit has faced a team like Oregon. Attempting to simulate Chip Kelly’s offense with a scout team is fruitless, as there is no way to truly recreate the misdirection. QB Jeremiah Masoli runs the zone read as well as any player in football, and I expect him to have more success this Friday. OSU’s defense is good enough to slow UO down at times, but I expect the quick strike Ducks to be locked in for most of the day.

The OSU offense has been inconsistent all season, and it doesn’t help that QB Terrelle Pryor is playing with a torn PCL (which he believes won’t be an issue). Still, the Buckeyes have a strong enough running game to make things interesting. If OSU can effectively run the ball with Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, Pryor may be able to connect on play action passes rather than using his feet to make plays.

There are plenty of reasons why Ohio State should be incredibly motivated for this game, but I just don’t think they are the better team. Oregon has played at an exceptionally high level in all three phases of the game for the majority of the season, and they have an overabundance of something that has given OSU trouble for the past three years… speed. I expect the Buckeyes to fight hard and make it a game, but I like the Ducks by six.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – Ohio State 24

Ohio State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR DeVier Posey – OSU will need big plays in the passing game, especially if the Oregon offense gets going early. Posey is a prototypical big play receiver with great speed and hands. He led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: DE/LB Kenny Rowe – Rowe has been a terror for opposing QBs all season, as he has racked up 8.5 sacks this season. Ohio State has not blocked players like Rowe very well over the last few years, and I expect his quickness and speed off the edge to disrupt Pryor throughout the game.

Dave’s Take (60 – 21):

No disrespect to THE Ohio State University, but in my honest opinion, the only way Oregon loses this game is if they beat themselves.

Thinking back to the Boise State game, it was clear that the Ducks offense wasn’t up to game speed. Granted, there is a big difference between a full offseason and a month or so, but this offense relies on having it’s timing down pat. If Oregon comes out clicking like they have been since late September, even OSU’s tough D will have trouble keeping the Ducks out of the high 30’s in scoring.

Ohio State has a great football team, but I believe Oregon will be too creative for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Nick Alliotti will be sure to dial up plenty of creative blitz packages to keep Terrelle Pryor (who won’t be at 100%) on his toes, and as I stated before, there just isn’t much to be done against Oregon’s offense, regardless of how strong your defensive unit may be.

Ohio State obviously has a massive chip on their shoulder, but that chip has been there for a few years now and hasn’t gotten them over the top. This year they play an Oregon team that fought their hearts out to win the Pac-10, so I doubt there will be any lack of motivation on their side.

Regardless of the game’s outcome, this bowl season will be chalked up as a disappointment. The losing record is obvious enough, but the ugly fashion in how the games were lost (other than Stanford, who fought hard without Andrew Luck) didn’t help lessen the blow. Furthermore, a win over Ohio State won’t get the Ducks the credit they deserve due to OSU’s recent bowl history; a loss, however, would make a bad bowl season for the Pac-10 a devestating one.

But I don’t think we’ll be seeing an Oregon loss this New Year’s Day. I expect the momentum of the regular season to carry over into a comfortable Ducks victory.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Ohio State 20

Washington State Cougars (1-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (3-1)
Saturday, October 3, 6:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -33.0

Sam’s Take (22 – 10):

I was actually quite impressed with WSU’s performance in the Coliseum last week, and Paul Wulff’s team really does appear to be making progress. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Oregon has also been making progress, as the Ducks have finally found their offensive identity. Jeremiah Masoli looked outstanding against Cal, and we finally saw the re-emergence of All-American TE Ed Dickson.

Not surprisingly, I believe the Ducks will be too much for an overmatched Wazzu team, but I do believe the Cougs can make some positive strides in this game. I am really looking forward to watching promising freshman QB Jeff Tuel, as he makes his first career start. Autzen probably won’t be kind to the rookie, but Tuel was very impressive against USC, and the experience he gains from playing in some of the best venues in the conference (Coliseum, Autzen) will be invaluable down the line.

For Oregon, the goal of this game is to stay sharp on offense, and avoid serious injuries at all cost (the Walter Thurmond III injury was bad enough). I expect Masoli to keep gaining confidence along with the rest of the offense, and the defense should pick up where they left off last week assuming they are motivated.

All signs point towards a comfortable win for the Ducks, but Tuel’s performance is also worth watching if you are a Wazzu fan.

Prediction: Oregon 42 – Washington State 14

Washington State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Gino Simone - Simone was excellent against USC (8 catches, 83 yards), and it is easy to see why the folks in Pullman are excited about his future.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Kenny Rowe - Rowe was one of the biggest reasons why Oregon was able to manhandle the Cal offense. He is a very exciting pass rusher with a hybrid skill set that allows him to play LB too.

Dave’s Take (25 – 7):

It will be interesting to see how Chip Kelly and the Ducks approach this game. Regardless of the fact that Washington State has clearly made some strides in the right direction, this is a game that the Ducks aren’t in any real danger of losing. So do the Ducks treat this game like any other Saturday, or do they play it safe?

I think the natural instinct will be to play it safe. With Walter Thurmond III lost for the season, the last thing the Ducks need is another catastrophic injury on either side of the ball, especially in a game that is well in hand.

That said, I don’t think taking the safe route is the right way to approach this game, at least not on offense anyway. Jeremiah Masoli’s complete 180 was a welcome surprise for Ducks fans, and obviously the hope is that he is now back at the level we all thought he’d be at coming into the season. But are we that sure that Masoli’s struggles are completely in the past? In my opinion, Oregon should treat this game like any other, and run the offense accordingly; let Masoli and the offense head into the UCLA game with confidence in themselves instead of question marks. And I get the feeling this is the direction they will take.

For Washington State, the focus should be exactly what it has been all season; play all 60 minutes regardless of what’s on the scoreboard. Paul Wulff’s unit has been a great second half team so far this season, a positive sign of the team’s attitude and conditioning.

Prediction: Oregon 49 – Washington State 9

The unit was responsible in helping lead the team to 38 sacks (2nd in the Pac-10, tied for 8th in the country), 104.5 tackles for loss (2nd Pac-10, tied 5th in country) and giving up only 3.09 yards per carry on the ground (2nd Pac-10, 12th in country). But just like the offensive line, it is hard to use last year’s success to gauge this year’s chances, as three starters are gone, including one of the Pac-10’s all-time greats.

The losses of Ra’Shon Harris (drafted 205th overall by the Steelers) and Cole Linehan (both 13-game starters) hurt bad, but losing Nick Reed is especially difficult. Reed received both All-Pac-10 and All-American honors in 2008 and his 13 sacks ranked 4th nationally. Over his career, Reed accumulated a school-record 29.5 sacks, which ranks 4th all-time in the Pac-10.

Replacing three high-level senior starters will not be easy, but it is essential to the Ducks’ success this year. Oregon’s offense has plenty of power and can shoot out with the best of them, but time of possession will be an even bigger issue this season if the defensive line isn’t up to speed.

Will Tukuafu in pursuit

Defensive End

39 Will Tukuafu, 6-4, 272, Senior
99 Zac Clark, 6-2, 256, Junior

- While the line as a whole has plenty of question marks, Will Tukuafu will not one of them. Tukuafu was a rivals.com 4-star recruit out of Scottsdale Community College and was ranked the nation’s 7th best JuCo transfer in 2007 and he has easily lived up to the hype.

In 2007 Tukuafu stepped right in without any problems, starting in 11 of 13 games and garnering All-Pac-10 honorable mention honors. He finished 4th on the team that year in tackles for loss with 8.5 and tied for third with 4.5 sacks.

Last season Tukuafu built on his 2007 success with a fantastic junior year. He started in all 13 games and racked up 59 tackles including 17.5 for loss (5th best in the conference) and tied for eighth in the conference with 8.5 sacks, once again receiving All-Pac-10 honorable mention.

The oldest member of the team at 25 years old (he took a two-year leave for an LDS mission before starting his collegiate career), Tukuafu will provide leadership both on and off the field. Not only does he possess excellent strength and good quickness, Tukuafu perhaps most impressively just has a knack for knowing exactly where the football is going to be and exploding towards it.

Even if he didn’t take a step forward he’d still be one of the best defensive ends in the conference; but I expect him to excel in the role as leader of this unit and have a career year in 2009. His name will likely be mentioned for conference honors all year long (and national honors, too, as he was put on the watch list for the Bednarik Award), and he will be a dangerous force to opposing offenses.

JuCo transfer Zac Clark has done nothing but impress since his arrival at Oregon. The Butler Community College transfer received a 3-star rating from both rivals.com and scout.com, and ran with the second team during spring drills. When tackle Brandon Bair was out sick this fall, Clark saw a lot of reps and continued to impress. Clark’s drive, work ethic, and experience make him a valuable asset to a line in need of quality depth. He will start the season learning the playbook and learning the ropes behind one of the best in Tukuafu.

Defensive Tackle

88 Brandon Bair, 6-7, 250, Junior
59 Terrance Montgomery, 6-2, 291, Junior

- After being recruited as a tight end in 2006, Brandon Bair made the transition to the defensive side of the ball during his redshirt season. He has since seen action as a reserve in every game of 2006 and 2007. He had eight tackles in 2008 along with one forced fumble against Washington State and one fumble recovery which he returned 24 yards in the Civil War against Oregon State.

With 26 games of reserve experience, including taking part in at least 10 plays in 12 of the 13 games last season, Bair has plenty of real-game experience. There is a difference between starting and coming in as a reserve of course, but Bair will likely skip the steep learning curve that most first-year starters endure.

At 6-7, Bair has an enormous wingspan that will frustrate plenty of Pac-10 quarterbacks looking for passing lanes up the middle. His strong offseason has indicated that he has worked out most of the kinks in his technique. At the very least Bair will be a serviceable tackle, but if his footwork has improved and he can keep his balance against the conference’s tougher O-Lines (USC keeps coming to mind), he could be a whole lot better than serviceable.

Terrance Montgomery is another rivals.com and scout.com 3-star JuCo transfer out of Reedley Community College. He recorded four tackles in the Spring Game including one for a loss. Like Clark, Montgomery should provide solid depth while getting to know the playbook in 2009, and could prove to be a good Plan B if Bair falters in the starting role.

Defensive Tackle

90 Blake Ferras, 6-6, 290, Senior
50 Simi Toeaina, 6-4, 318, Senior

- Another rivals.com 3-star JuCo (City College of San Francisco) transfer from last season, Blake Ferras appeared in seven games as a reserve in 2008 and recorded one tackle. In 2007 he recorded 25 tackles including eight tackles for loss and four sacks in 10 games at CCSF.

Battling Ferras for the position is Simi Toeaina, who saw action in five games last season recording one tackle for loss against both Washington and Washington State.

Whoever wins this spot will give the line some much needed size up the middle, and whoever doesn’t win it will be available to provide depth for both of the starting tackles.

Defensive End

58 Kenny Rowe, 6-3, 230, Junior
45 Terrell Turner, 6-3, 248, Sophomore

- That’s no typo; Kenny Rowe is only 230 pounds, and that’s actually after putting on 15 pounds this offseason.

Rowe was a rivals.com 4-star recruit and was rated the 7th best defensive end in the country in the 2007 class. Built more like a linebacker than a lineman, Rowe possesses great speed (his 5.04 forty time was fastest among all linemen) and can get into the backfield in a hurry. He recorded a team high three tackles for loss (two sacks) in the Spring Game.

In 2007, Rowe appeared primarily as a pass rush specialist as a true freshman. He saw action in all 13 games and recorded eight tackles; six tackles for loss including five sacks. Last season he continued his role as a passing down reserve, recording 10 tackles and seeing action in all 13 games. He was being worked at linebacker during the 2008 spring, but returned to the d-line for the season.

It’s hard to gauge how Rowe will be used in the starting role. His speed and athleticism are excellent, and there is little doubt that he will be a threat to explode into the backfield on every down. But will his size be a deterrent on running plays? Time will tell, but I’m sure Chip Kelly and his coaching staff have a plan for how they want to use Rowe in rushing situations.

Terrell Turner, a rivals.com 3-star recruit, will likely see some action as a reserve. Turner appeared in four of the first five games of the season in 2008 before suffering an injury against Washington State.

Kenny Rowe records the sack

My Take

Ironically enough, the biggest issue for this year’s line was how healthy and consistent last year’s line was. With Harris, Linehan, Reed, and Tukuafu all doing an exceptional job and staying healthy for the entire season in the process, there was never any room for a guy like Bair or Ferras to fill in and get valuable starts. This unit is loaded with very capable talent, but the entire two deep with the exception of Tukuafu has no Pac-10 starting experience whatsoever. So what do we have to go on?

We do know that Will Tukuafu is going to be a stud that will provide exceptional pass rushing and run defense all season long. I’m expecting Brandon Bair to do fine at tackle; he has ample experience under his belt and the transition to full time starter shouldn’t give him too much trouble.

The other two spots worry me. Again, Ferras and Toeaina are both capable athletes, but we just don’t know what to expect from them early in the season. As for Kenny Rowe, just picturing both him and Tukuafu on the pass rush makes me cringe for quarterbacks around the conference, but as I mentioned above, what happens when the opponent runs the football? Will Rowe’s quickness and athleticism be enough to make up for his lack of size against some of the conference’s better o-lines on the inside?

I don’t mean to paint a picture of doom and gloom; as USC has proven many times, good old fashioned talent and hard work can easily overcome lack of experience. Besides that, Chip Kelly and D-Line Coach Jerry Azzinaro are going to be scheming up answers for all of the question marks us fans tend to worry about, and will likely utilize their great linebacking core to help patch some holes.

Much like the offensive line, there is little doubt in my mind that with some mixing and matching, trial and error, and valuable game experience, Chip Kelly will have himself a very capable line by the time the second half of the season rolls around.

But will it be too late by then? That all depends on how quickly this unit can learn under fire.