Oregon Ducks 5-1 Overall (3-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 24 – UCLA 10

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Coming into this season, there were a lot of questions surrounding Nick Aliotti’s defense. How would the d-line hold up, especially now that Nick Reed has moved on? Could the secondary overcome the losses of Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd? Then more recently, who would step up now that Walter Thurmond III and Willie Glasper are done for the season (not to mention the uncertain status of T.J. Ward)?

If the first three Pac-10 games are any indication, many of those questions have been answered. Oregon has been off-the-charts good on D so far in the conference, giving up three points to Cal, six to Wazzu and three to UCLA. The Ducks continue to prove they can win even when the offense isn’t its explosive self.

After a lackluster first half against the Bruins (UO trailed 3-0 at half), Kenjon Barner’s kickoff return TD ignited the Ducks. Oregon fans have to feel good about what Talmadge Jackson (INT return for TD), Cliff Harris, and the rest of the makeshift secondary was able to accomplish in Pasadena.

Of course the other story from Saturday was the continued excellence of RB LaMichael James. James has far surpassed the hype coming out of Eugene during spring and fall camp, and he is quickly developing into one of the best tailbacks in the Pac-10. His 152 rushing yards accounted for over half of the Ducks offensive output. James now has 581 rushing yards (3rd in conference) and four TDs on the season.

QB Nate Costa did not do much (9/17 82 yards, 1 TD 1 INT), but he didn’t have to. Costa’s job was to manage the game, and he did just that. If not for an incredibly athletic play by Bruins LB Akeem Ayers, Costa’s stat sheet would have looked a bit better, but all things considered, it was a solid effort.

The Ducks get a much needed bye week, and this is the perfect time for Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the injured to fully recuperate. Then it’s off to Seattle for a date with the hated Washington Huskies. One of the Pac-10’s most heated rivalries will finally have some restored meaning, and there should be an electric atmosphere at Husky Stadium in two weeks. If the Ducks escape Montlake with a victory, the Halloween showdown with USC is on at Autzen.

Utah Utes (2-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (1-1)
Saturday, September 19, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -5.0

Sam’s Take (14 – 4):

These two programs finished the 2008 season as well as any in the country, but right now, I think both have a lot of improving to do. In four combined games, I have seen inconsistent play out of the Utes and Ducks, so it will be interesting to see which team makes the biggest strides Saturday.

I believe the key to this game will be the Oregon rushing attack vs. the Utah run defense. The running game sets everything up in Chip Kelly’s misdirection spread scheme, but the Ducks have been inconsistent on the ground through two games. The Utes have a stingy front seven that will look to overpower a shaky Ducks offensive line, and right now I give the edge in that matchup to Utah. However, I do believe that if the UO line can play like it did in the latter part of the Purdue game, then playmakers like LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner will have a chance to hit some big plays.

I also believe the Ducks will need to get more receivers involved this week. Against Purdue, QB Jeremiah Masoli only completed passes to only four players, but most troubling is the limited role that TE Ed Dickson has had so far (3 catches in two games). Dickson is an All-America caliber player who should be the focal point of the passing attack, and I can only hope that is more involved this week.

The Utah offense will be hoping to have a relatively healthy RB Matt Asiata available, and if he’s good to go the Ducks will have to deal with a bruising tailback with deceptive quickness. The Utes are feeling pretty good about what new QB Terrance Cain can do as well, so the Ducks D will have to be sharp in coverage. Nick Alliotti’s unit came up with a some huge plays last week to help secure the win, and this week will require more of the same. Walter Thurmond and Co. may even have to score again in order to support an offense that is still a definite work in progress.

Utah is looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 17 games, and on a neutral field I would likely pick them to take this game. But I believe Autzen gives the home team an extra boost on both sides of the ball, and that energy will be enough to propel the Ducks to a very close win.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Utah 30

Utah Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Stevenson Sylvester - He is the anchor of the defense and will be one of the keys to the game on Saturday.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson - I can’t reiterate enough how much I believe Dickson needs to get the ball more. This may be the game that jump-starts his season.

Dave’s Take (14 – 4):

After losing 11 starters this offseason (including quarterback Brian Johnson), Utes fans were concerned that there might be a major drop off this season; and less than stellar efforts in the first two games of the season haven’t done much to quiet those concerns. For Oregon, hopes of a big season have now been met with fears of a disastrous one.

One of these teams will send their fans home with a big sigh of relief and some cautious optimism moving forward. The other will raise even more questions than the first two games have already provided.

Utah has won both of their games so far this year, but both were against inferior opponents. Last week’s game against San Jose State saw the Utes take a 7-7 tie into the 4th quarter before eventually pulling away.

JuCo transfer QB Terrance Cain has looked strong in both the passing and running game so far this season, but with all due respect to San Jose State’s fans, he hasn’t been road-tested in a hostile environment like Autzen yet. He’ll get his share of yards this Saturday, but Oregon’s defense has a knack for making big plays, and the crowd might force him into some mistakes.

For Oregon, it is going to come down to line play. Utah’s D-Line is one of its best units, and if the O-Line doesn’t open up lanes for the running backs and buy Jeremiah Masoli time when he needs it, it’ll be a long day. And as uncomfortable as Oregon fans might make Terrance Cain, it will all be for naught if the D-Line isn’t doing their part to disrupt him, too.

I haven’t seen enough out of either of these teams to pick either of them with any confidence at this point. Unless Oregon’s lines take a big step forward, it looks to me like Utah will win those battles; and with their dangerous running game led by Matt Asiata, that might be the difference. Oregon will have to show us something we haven’t seen out of them in the first two weeks defensively to win this one; and I can’t pick them until they do.

Prediction: Utah 31 – Oregon 28

Oregon Ducks 1-1 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 38 – Purdue 36

Next Week’s Opponent: Utah

A good win for the Ducks, and they needed it badly. But I had a lot of questions about this team coming into the game, and honestly, I still do. While it was encouraging to see Jeremiah Masoli running around and making plays again, where were the wide receivers?

I fear that Jamere Holland is going down the Jaison Williams path, but hopefully the dropped balls do not continue to be an issue. Otherwise, will Holland be considered 50/50 part two? Also, I am very confused as to why Ed Dickson isn’t a bigger part of the offense (one catch against Purdue). Only two wideouts (Holland, Maehl) and two tight ends (Paulson and Dickson) made catches against Purdue, and I am sure Chip Kelly is not happy about that.

The running game was more encouraging, as the Ducks ran for 193 yards, led by Masoli with 84. Both James and Barner continued to display their explosive potential, but the two were only given a combined 14 carries (90 yards between the two). I will say that James worries me with his ball security issues, and that may be a reason for his limited touches. Crenshaw didn’t do much (23 yards, 1 TD, 2.1 ypc) but he should be productive as the season progresses. It is critical that the misdirection and option plays continue to keep defenses off-guard, because Oregon does not have an overly physical group of tailbacks; not anymore at least.

I thought the defense did some really good things against Purdue, but the Boilermakers certainly got their fair share of offensive production (PUR out gained ORE 451-356). Obviously, the Ducks D came up with two huge touchdowns and a pivotal blocked PAT. When Walter Thurmond scores a TD, the Ducks normally come up with a win so that was fun to see. I still see no real pass rush, and that looks like it may continue to plague this unit, but the pass defense was solid nonetheless.

Now the Ducks will face another BCS-busting power that is full of confidence. The game against Utah will be tough, but it is also a great opportunity for Oregon to regain some respect nationally.

Purdue Boilermakers (1-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (0-1)
Saturday, September 12, 7:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -12.0

Sam’s Take (8 – 1):

The long road back to respectability begins for Oregon this Saturday, and returning to Autzen may be just what the doctor ordered. While there is no real way of knowing how this Ducks team will respond to the humbling experience that took place last Thursday, Purdue may be the right opponent at the right time.

QB Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the offense will be facing a Boilermaker defense that was lit up by Toledo in their opener (Purdue gave up 421 yards through the air). If Chip Kelly cannot find a way to get production out of his offense this week, it will be a very long season in Eugene.

Now is the time for Masoli to regain his confidence (and his passing accuracy). Now is also the time for a wideout like Jamere Holland to meet the high expectations that were set for him after an excellent off-season.

I expect to see exciting freshman tailback LaMichael James start to assert himself as the new feature back at Oregon, but Andre Crenshaw and Kenjon Barner will also be heavily involved. Unfortunately, all three backs may not go anywhere if the o-line doesn’t play substantially better than what we saw last week. The east-west running was completely ineffective against Boise, but maybe with improved line play and a trio of shifty backs, the misdirection will start to work again (after all, Blount didn’t look too nimble against the Broncos).

Defensively, the Ducks will have their work cut out for them. I am not as high on the defensive performance against Boise as some are. I feel that the Broncos offense shot itself in the foot on multiple occasions, and Nick Alliotti’s D looked lost at times.

I credit the unit for tightening up when it had to, but at best it was a “bend but don’t break” performance. My biggest concern is the health of safety T.J. Ward, who is “day-to-day”. If he can’t go Saturday, John Boyett may be forced back into action, or we may see one of the Rovers move over (Lewis or Johnson). Without Ward, the secondary is considerably less intimidating.

Purdue will likely attack the defense with standout RB Ralph Bolden, who rushed for 234 yards in the opener and flashed impressive playmaking ability throughout the game. The Ducks best bet may be to force QB Joey Elliot to beat them. Elliot was decent against Toledo, but also showed a penchant for throwing interceptions (he finished with 220 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs). In order to rattle Elliot, it is critical that the d-line establishes a consistent pass rush, something they did not do very well in Boise.

Oregon should have plenty of motivation to show the country that they are better than what they showed in the opener. I think the offense will be considerably better (it couldn’t be any worse), and while the defense is likely to give up some yards, I think the unit will also force a few turnovers.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Purdue 27

Purdue Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Ryan Kerrigan - He is an excellent pass-rusher with a high motor. He could wreak havoc on Masoli if the Oregon o-line plays like it did last week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson - For a struggling QB, having a reliable target like Dickson is huge. I hope the offense will run through him a little more, as he really is one of America’s best at tight end.

Dave’s Take (8 – 1):

A quick glance at the schedule this preseason, and the game against Purdue was the only “easy” one in September. Fast-forward to today, and what was supposed to be the respite of the month has all of a sudden become a virtual must-win for the Ducks.

There are two ways that I can see this game going.

Scenario One: Completely dejected after the awful game in Boise State and losing one of their best offensive weapons in LeGarrette Blount, the team can’t really find their grove or identity on or off the field. Jeremiah Masoli starts second guessing himself more often and forcing it too much, resulting in more turnovers. The defensive and offensive lines both continue to struggle as the offense looks out of sync and the defense has difficulty slowing down a powerful Boilermaker offensive attack. Purdue pulls off the upset, or comes dangerously close to doing so.

Scenario Two: Oregon sets out to prove to the world that this season is not lost, and last week was an aberration. They want to show that they’ll be just fine without LeGarrette Blount and they are plenty deep on offense to withstand the blow. Fueled by the home crowd and their desire to prove all of their doubters wrong, Oregon goes out and plays to their potential, this time flashing the ability on both sides of the ball that many of us were expecting in the Boise State game. The Ducks win comfortably, and pump some much needed life back into this season.

I’m leaning towards scenario two as I’m not quite ready to throw in the towel on the Ducks after just one game. An extremely ugly one game, yes, but it was the opener and plenty of teams weren’t at their best last week.

The only problem I’m having is that I made the same argument about being pumped up and going out with their best effort in the Boise State game, and we all saw how that turned out. If that was the best the Ducks could do in a game they had circled on the calendar, should we really expect them to all of a sudden find that heart they were lacking in one week?

I’m going to say yes… but if Scenario One plays out, it is going to be a long season.

Prediction: Oregon 41 – Purdue 24