PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
San Diego, California
#20 Arizona Wildcats (8-4) VS. #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4)
Wednesday, December 30, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Nebraska -3.0

Sam’s Take (57 – 22):

There is little doubt that Nebraska will have the best player on the field in tomorrow’s Holiday Bowl, but will the dominance of Ndamukong Suh and the Nebraska defense be enough to overcome a more complete Arizona team? The Wildcats are full of athleticism on both sides of the ball, and possess a significantly better offense than the Cornhuskers.

Both of these teams dealt with some incredibly bitter defeats in 2009. Nebraska lost three games (Virginia Tech, Iowa State, and Texas) by a combined four points. Arizona lost leads late in the fourth quarter of three games (Washington, Cal, Oregon). So what does that tell us about this match-up? Well it is certainly clear that both teams are used to playing close games, and I will be interested to see which team finishes stronger in what is sure to be another closely contested contest.

I have no doubt that the Blackshirts will be at their best in San Diego for Bo Pelini’s squad. However, it is important to note that while the Huskers D has been magnificent (9th nationally in total D, 2nd nationally in scoring D), Arizona has one heck of a defensive unit as well. The ‘Cats finished the regular season 21st nationally in total defense, and that should serve UA especially well against a Nebraska offense that ranks 102nd in total offense.

I believe the difference in this game will be the Arizona offense. Sonny Dykes system is predicated on the quick passing game, and I therefore expect QB Nick Foles to elude Suh by getting the ball out right away. The return of RB Nic Grigsby also figures to be a huge boost to ‘Zona, as it gives the ground game a true home run threat. I don’t expect the ‘Cats offense to light up the scoreboard by any means, but I think the unit will come up with a few key drives.

The Holiday Bowl is always one of the most exciting games of the post-season and I expect this game to be another thriller. While we may not get offensive fireworks, fans of defense should be glued to their seats all night.

In the end, I expect the Wildcats to squeak out a win.

Prediction: Arizona 17 – Nebraska 14

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Juron Criner – Criner has been a clutch playmaker for UA all season, and against a talented defense that doesn’t allow big plays, he may have to play his best game of the year.

Nebraska Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Niles Paul – Like Criner, Paul has proven to be a playmaker for the Huskers throughout the season. He is a deep threat receiver who can also make a difference in the return game.

Dave’s Take (59 – 20):

This one definitely has the look and feel of an evenly-matched slugfest, and should be a lot of fun to watch.

I like Arizona in this one, but for a somewhat peculiar reason; Ndamukong Suh.

Don’t get me wrong; it isn’t like I think he’s overrated or anything. He is every bit deserving of all of the accolades he is receiving. But because he is as amazing of a talent as he is, the Holiday Bowl has essentially become the Ndamukong Suh Showcase Bowl in the eyes of many.

The Heisman Trophy Winner going on to lose in their bowl game (has happened to 5 of the last 6 winners) has now picked up a name; the “Heisman Curse”. But this one is no Billy Goat/Voodoo type of deal; there is logic to it. When the media spends an entire month clamoring over a player, not only is it a distraction for that player, but more importantly, it adds a huge chip to the shoulders of the opposing team.

In a sport like football where motivation and intensity plays such a big role in determining winners, being ignored by the media in favor of the other team’s stars is one of the biggest motivators out there. While Suh didn’t win the Heisman, he might as well have with all of the (deserved) hype he is getting; Defensive Player of the Year, projected first overall pick in the NFL, etc.

Arizona, meanwhile, who had one of their greatest football seasons ever, has been virtually ignored. No love for playing such a hard fought game against Oregon; they lost, after all. No love for going into USC and beating the Trojans IN the Coliseum; Stanford just did that, and “this isn’t the same USC team”. Now, once again, they find themselves overlooked.

Needless to say, both teams will be plenty motivated. But I think that the Wildcats have that extra chip on their shoulder as they likely feel they have more to prove, and I think they can pull it off.

Prediction: Arizona 16 – Nebraska 12

Arizona Wildcats 6-4 Overall (4-3 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 44 – Arizona 41 (2OT)

Next Week’s Opponent: @Arizona State

For Wildcats fans, none of the cliches in the book about how great of an effort last Saturday’s game was are going to make the loss sting any less.

That said, I’ll make the point anyway; Saturday’s game against Oregon was an extremely respectable effort, and the Wildcats and their fans should hold their heads up high for showing as much fight as they did and providing a fantastic game that not only lived up to all of the hype, but far surpassed it.

This team has come a long way over the last few years in terms of talent and mental toughness, and they should be able to build off of these invaluable experiences next season.

Nick Foles had an excellent day, passing for 314 yards and four TDs (30/46, 1 INT). His main target was Juron Criner, who made five catches including three for touchdowns, capped off by an electrifying 71-yard play on a short pass that at the time gave the Wildcats the lead.

The defense also played a very good game. When Oregon’s offense is rolling, there isn’t any stopping it; but to slow it down is an impressive feat. And in fact, the defense stepped up huge midway through the fourth quarter when they forced a 4-and-out to get the ball back at the Oregon 45 to preserve the touchdown lead. The offense turned the ball back over with just over three minutes left to play, and you can’t give an offense like Oregon’s a second chance.

With the Rose Bowl out of reach and a bowl game already locked up, the Wildcats will have to dig deep to find motivation to finish up the last two games of the season. Granted, there is always plenty of motivation when playing hated rival ASU, but even that will pale in comparison to Saturday’s game. Hard to go from controlling your own destiny for the Rose Bowl to bring (likely) one loss away from a 6th place finish in the conference, but that’s the reality.

Will the Wildcats finish strong, or fizzle to the finish line? We will soon find out.

Arizona Wildcats 5-2 Overall (3-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 27 – UCLA 13

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

‘Zona fans, I think this team has turned the corner. In previous seasons, the ‘Cats would not have been able to overcome a five-turnover day, but somehow this team found a way to comfortably persevere. Certainly the putrid Bruins offense had a lot to do with the outcome of Saturday’s game, but I also credit Mark Stoops defense for laying the hammer on UCLA’s pair of signal-calling Kevins.

Obviously QB Nick Foles had a peculiar (and I dare say uncharacteristic) day despite this being only his fourth start (22/34 247 yards 2 TDs, 3 INTs). We have come to expect near perfection from the sophomore, and on Saturday we didn’t get it. Still, even on an off night, Foles continued to flash his big arm, especially on a beautifully thrown TD to WR Juron Criner late in the first quarter.

Is there an offensive coordinator in the Pac-10 that is better than Sonny Dykes right now? I am struggling to find one. With RB Nic Grigsby and RB Greg Nwoko battling injuries, Dykes was able to manufacture rushing production by utilizing receiver reverses and creative misdirection, as well as conventional run plays with RB Keola Antolin.

Amazingly, nine different ball carriers combined to rush for over 200 yards, including 77 yards from Antolin and 45 from WR Delashaun Dean. This ‘Cats offense was sloppy against UCLA, but it still managed to put up 456 yards of offense because of the tremendous balance.

As mentioned earlier, the defense played inspired football, holding UCLA to 211 total yards and essentially giving up no points (UCLA had one defensive TD, and all 13 points came off of UA turnovers). If the D can build off of this performance, Arizona will have a chance to win every game on the remaining schedule.

‘Zona gets a much-needed bye this week, which should give the ailing Wildcats a chance to get healthy. UA plays Washington State next, and it is critical that the team comes out of that game as injury-free as possible, because after the Cougars a gauntlet awaits (@Cal, Oregon, @ASU, @USC).

UCLA Bruins (3-3) vs. Arizona Wildcats (4-2)
Saturday, October 24, 3:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Arizona -7.5

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

UCLA and Arizona are heading in opposite directions right now. The Bruins have looked lost as of late, and last week’s beatdown at the hands of Cal was especially disheartening. Meanwhile, Arizona is quietly putting together the best offense in the Pac-10, led by a rising star in QB Nick Foles.

Arizona has been a part of two thrillers in a row, losing a heartbreaker in Seattle and then mounting an incredibly exciting comeback against Stanford. This week, I think Mike Stoops will be able to breathe a little easier but this game is by no means a lock.

A strong argument could be made that QB Nick Foles is the best signal caller in the Pac-10, as his numbers have been nothing short of remarkable (1,152 yards passing 9 TDs 2 INTs, 73.9% completions on the season). The rise of Foles has now made the ‘Cats as balanced as any offense in college football right now, as the running game is still extremely potent with three all-conference caliber performers in the backfield. Nic Grisby appears to be fully healthy, so the UCLA defense will have its hands full this Saturday.

For UCLA, there is some reason to believe the offense can come through this week. Schematically, Norm Chow does a lot of the same things as Stanford, particularly in his use of tight ends and fullbacks. Jim Harbaugh’s club exploited a talented UA secondary last week, so the blueprint is there for Chow to take advantage of. If QB Kevin Prince can make good decisions, UCLA will have a puncher’s chance. I would also like to see RB Jonathan Franklin get the ball more this week, as he is the most explosive threat right now for the Bruins.

As good as CB Alterraun Verner and S Rahim Moore are, the other half of the UCLA secondary could be in for a long day against a dynamic UA passing attack. I believe the ‘Cats offense is going to be a little bit too versatile for UCLA’s D this week, and that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Arizona 35 – UCLA 27

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Logan Paulsen – Paulsen’s play was a bright spot from the Cal game and I think he is the perfect mismatch option for Prince because of his big frame and deceptive speed.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Juron Criner – Any one of six UA receivers could be the player to keep an eye on this week, but Criner seems to be surging right now.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

Looking ahead to this game a few weeks ago, it was looking like a clash between UCLA’s stingy defense and Arizona’s high powered offense. Arizona has kept up their end of the deal, slashing through conference opponents on offense ever since Nick Foles has taken over at QB; but what happened to UCLA’s defense?

The Oregon game was not the defense’s fault, considering the fact that they only gave up one offensive touchdown in that one. But that had a lot to do with Nate Costa’s ineffectiveness; the running defense has been awful for three straight games, giving up a woeful 228 YPG since conference play has started. The Cal game was a complete disaster defensively as the Bears just ripped off big play after big play in routing the Bruins at home.

After seeing what I saw last week, I just don’t believe that UCLA is going to magically re-find themselves on defense on the road against one of the conference’s most explosive offenses. The Bruins might also see a healthy dose of Nic Grigsby, Greg Nwoko, and Keola Antolin if they can’t do anything to prove they can stop the run. And if the rushing attack establishes itself and sets up this passing game… oh my.

Offensively, the Bruins took some nice strides last week; and the Wildcats defense has been less than stellar of late. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UCLA put some points up this week; but I don’t see them slowing down Arizona’s attack, and they won’t be able to keep up with it.

Prediction: Arizona 34 – UCLA 20

Arizona Wildcats 4-2 Overall (2-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 43 – Stanford 38

Next Week’s Opponent: UCLA

Enough offense for you?

Despite giving up over 30 points for the third straight game, Saturday’s shootout victory over Stanford shot Arizona into the BCS top 25 (#22). With quality in-conference wins over Stanford and Oregon State as well as only two losses (the heart breaker in Washington and to undefeated Iowa), the respect seems justified. Speaking of that Iowa game, how badly do you want to see a do-over with Nick Foles as the starter?

Since Foles has taken over as the starter, the Wildcats have scored 113 points and have amassed 1402 yards of total
offense; good for 37.7 points and 467.33 yards per game.

Hard to find anything about the offense not to love in Saturday’s game. Nick Foles had an unbelievable day, throwing for 415 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Juron Criner had 12 catches for 152 yards, Terrell Turner had nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, and David Douglas had 92 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. David Roberts and Keola Antolin both snagged five catches each as well.

Arizona didn’t run often, but when they did, good things happened. Greg Nwoko rushed three times for 45 yards, capped off by a 43-yard touchdown run in the 4th quarter, and Nic Grigsby rushed seven times for 89 yards, also capped off by a huge (57-yard) touchdown in the 4th.

On defense, things were quite different. The defense gave up a miserable 584 total yards, including 434 passing yards. They also gave up 123 yards and two touchdowns to Gerhart on the ground before his injury. Bright spots include getting the stop on 4th and 1 late in the game (you have to be thrilled as a Wildcats fan that Gerhart wasn’t available), and of course the 79-yard pick-6 by Robert Golden to put Arizona on the board early in the 1st quarter.

But for a team that can usually rely on its speedy defense, this is the second time in three games that they’ve been torched for over 400 total yards (407 against Oregon State). Yes, they ended up winning both of those games; but the difference between a good season and a fantastic one will be the defense, because the offense is clearly clicking.

The Wildcats will look to keep the good times rolling this week at home against UCLA.

Arizona Wildcats 3-1 Overall (1-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 37 – Oregon State 32

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

It’s safe to say that Sonny Dykes “AirZona” offense is back in a big way. The quarterback switch at UA couldn’t have worked any better in Corvallis, as Nick Foles was tremendous (25-34 254 yards, 3 TDs 0 INTs). Foles demonstrated Tuitama-like command of the offense, hitting 10 different receivers throughout the day.

Even with Nic Grigsby sidelined for most of the game and Keola Antolin battling injury as well, the ‘Cats offense found a way to move the ball. Third-string tailback Greg Nwoko was spectacular as a runner (9 carries for 44 yards), and receiver (4 rec. 76 yards).

Foles has re-energized the talented receiving corps, as Delashaun Dean, Terrell Turner, David Roberts and Juron Criner were all able to make plays in the passing attack Saturday.

While the UA defense gave up plenty of yards (407), the secondary still managed to come up with a couple of big interceptions. Trevin Wade continues to be a dangerous playmaker at CB (picked Canfield off in 3rd Qtr), and Devin Ross also had a big INT in the final minutes of the game.

A special kudos goes to punter Keenyn Crier. Crier is one of the best punters in America, and he proved it on numerous occasions against the Beavers. In the fourth quarter alone, Crier was able to pin OSU inside the five-yard line three times (resulting in a TD, INT, and safety for UA). A strong argument could be made that his punting won the game for the Wildcats.

It appears that Grigsby and Antolin will be healthy for the game against Washington, which should allow Dykes to employ an even more potent (and balanced) attack.

With the QB controversy now resolved, the ‘Cats seem to have found their offensive identity. If Nick Foles can build on his solid debut, Arizona will be firmly in the conference title race all season.

Thomas, now with the Jacksonville Jaguars, finished his spectacular UA career with a conference-record 259 receptions, and accounted for 3,231 receiving yards and 22 TDs as a four-year starter.

Although Thomas was the heartbeat of the receiving corps over the last four years, the Wildcats will now move on with a trio of excellent pass-catching playmakers. Arizona’s innovative offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes will have two of the more experienced receivers in the conference at his disposal, as well as the services of America’s best tight end.

Junior Delashaun Dean was last year’s second leading receiver for UA (behind Mike Thomas). Dean finished 2008 with 53 receptions for 593 yards and four touchdowns, capped off by a great performance in the Las Vegas Bowl against BYU.

Delashaun Dean heads to the sideline

Dean totaled seven catches for 88 yards and a score against the Cougars, helping UA win their first bowl game since 1998. For his career, the junior has 90 catches for 1,011 yards and five touchdowns.

At 6-4 202 pounds, Dean possesses excellent size and great hands. He uses his long arms in a similar manner to former USC standout Dwayne Jarrett, catching the ball at its highest point and leaving most defensive backs helpless.

The former two-sport standout at Fairfield High School (CA) uses his basketball instincts and leaping ability very well, which make him especially valuable when he is matched up one on one. He was rated as a 4-star prospect by Scout.com, and recognized as a SuperPrep All-American.

Dean has solid speed (4.5) and can be deceptively good after the catch. Dykes’ playbook features a variety of receiver screens that are designed to put wideouts in space, and Dean should continue to flourish in these schemes as both a pass-catcher and blocker. He will enter the 2009 season as one of the primary targets for the ‘Cats offense.

Joining Dean as a starter at wideout will be senior Terrell Turner. Last season, Turner finished a productive junior campaign with 43 receptions for 580 yards and one touchdown. For his career, Turner has 94 catches for 1,162 yards and five touchdowns. Like Dean, Turner was also a big contributor in the Las Vegas Bowl win over BYU, with four catches for 111 yards (27.8 YPC).

The 6-2 190 pound senior is a superb route-runner, with enough speed and quickness to pile up yards after the catch. He also has some of the best hands on the team, giving Dykes a reliable wideout who can act as the team’s possession receiver. The Garland (TX) native will provide the receiving corps with senior leadership, a role that Mike Thomas occupied last season.

In the spring game, Turner endeared himself to his teammates (half of them at least) by catching the game-winning TD pass from Matt Scott. His clutch reception allowed the White Team to eat a fancy steak dinner later that night, while the Blue Team ate hot dogs and hamburgers. Turner enters fall as a clear starter along with Dean.

Terrell Turner celebrates a touchdown

One young receiver that will try to breakout for the ‘Cats this season is redshirt sophomore William “Bug” Wright. At 5-9 175 pounds, Wright is built similarly to Mike Thomas, and could take on the same role in this year’s offense.

Many around the Old Pueblo believe “Bug” may be utilized in the slot, on reverses, and in the return game the same way that Thomas was used. His only action during 2008 was in the season opener against Idaho where he caught three passes for 42 yards, but he will see the field a lot more in 2009.

Wright’s skill set is unlike any other player on the UA roster. He has game-breaking speed and rare instincts in the open field. Wright has made remarkable progress at wideout since arriving at Arizona. The Tatum (OK) native was a high school QB at Pauls Valley H.S., and had never played receiver until arriving in Tucson.

Wright enters the fall with a great chance to start as the slot receiver for the Wildcats this season, and could become a primary return man as well.

Fellow sophomore Juron Criner will also have a chance to play often this season. As a true freshman, Criner played in all 13 games and started three. He flashed his ability with 7 receptions for 88 yards and one touchdown.

The 6-4 210 pounds Criner has tremendous upside, and possesses the physical tools to be a difference maker for Arizona. He has greatly improved in one season under the UA coaching staff, and could see his playing time increase dramatically in 2009.

The Las Vegas (NV) native was also a very good basketball player at Canyon Spring High School, and could become a factor in the red zone this season. He will compete for time as the primary backup to Terrell Turner.

Tight Ends

Arizona returns arguably the best tight end in all of college football, junior Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is one of the favorites for the Mackey Award (Best Tight End in Nation) this season, and is on numerous pre-season All-American lists.

Last season, he finished first on the team with 10 receiving TDs to go along with 47 receptions for 672 yards. In his two-year career, the junior has 75 receptions for 1,197 yards and 16 TDs, making him the school-record holder for career receptions, yards, and TDs by a tight end. He is also the single-game and single-season school record holder for the same categories.

Rob Gronkowski trucks through defenders

At 6-6 265 pounds, Gronkowski is one of the most complete tight ends to come out of the conference in years. He possesses a devastating skill set, with equally great blocking and receiving abilities, as well as remarkable speed for a player his size (4.6).

Gronkowski is a dominant force in the intermediate passing game, with the ability to run past linebackers and shrug off defensive backs. He has become a very good route-runner under Dykes, which was thought to be his only real weakness when he entered college. He was also instrumental in the prolific Arizona running game last season, helping to open holes for Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin.

The Amherst (NY) native was a high school football star at Woodland Hills High in Pittsburgh (PA). He garnered PrepStar All-American honors, and was given a 4-star rating by Scout and Rivals.com.

He enters 2009 as the focal point of the Arizona passing attack, and one of the biggest stars in the conference.

There will actually be two Gronkowski’s lining up for the Wildcats this season. Senior Chris Gronkowski is the older brother of Rob, and a good player in his own right. The former Maryland transfer will be Arizona’s H-Back this season because of his versatile skill set. Last season, he caught eight passes for 198 yards and three TDs.

On top of being a solid pass-catcher, the 6-2 235 pound senior is a great lead blocker, and will be involved heavily in the running attack this season. He is an intelligent player, and will give the Wildcats an experienced senior leader. The Amherst (NY) native should contribute in a big way this fall.

Other receivers and tight ends competing for time are: junior A.J. Simmons, sophomores Devin Veal and David Douglas, and freshmen Travis Cobb, DeWayne Peace, Terrence Miller, and Jake Baucus.

My Take

You would think that the loss of the conference’s all-time leading receiver would be a lot for Arizona to overcome this year, but the program is doing just fine. In fact, receiver is one of the strongest units on the team and the talent is in place for this group to have a big year even with a new QB.

Dean is more than capable of surpassing his totals from last year, and Turner is as well. I think Wright is the key for the wide receivers this season, and if he turns out to be half as good in the slot as Thomas was last year, the ‘Cats will have another successful passing attack.

There is no doubt in my mind that Rob Gronkowsi is the best tight end in America, and I expect him to prove it all season long. He makes every other player on the Arizona offense better, because the defense must account for him at all times. I would not be surprised to see him win the Mackey Award this year, as long as either Scott or Foles can settle in as the starting QB.

The losses of Willie Tuitama and Mike Thomas may cause a decline in sheer numbers, but expect Sonny Dykes to make great use of these talented pass-catchers in 2009.