Arizona State Sun Devils (4-6) vs. UCLA Bruins (5-5)
Saturday, November 21, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: UCLA -5.0

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

For most of the 2009 season, Arizona State and UCLA have looked like mirror images of one another. Each team features a very strong defense, an inconsistent offensive line, and most recently, a young quarterback with great promise. The Bruins and Sun Devils also share identical conference records (2-5) with their two Pac-10 wins coming over the lowly Washington schools.

As I look at this game, the biggest difference I see is the current state of the offenses. UCLA has struggled for most of the season offensively, but the unit has begun to make strides. QB Kevin Prince’s confidence seems to be high right now, and he finally has a difference maker to throw to on the outside in WR Nelson Rosario. If RB Derrick Coleman, Milton Knox, or Jonathan Franklin can spark the running game this week, the Bruins may have a chance to crack the stingy Sun Devil D.

Arizona State is looking to rally behind a new starting quarterback this week. Samson Szakacsy will be the third QB to start for the Devils this season, and he is also the most intriguing. Szakacsy is a true dual-threat with skills most suited for the zone-read scheme that Dennis Erickson implemented in the off-season. Against Oregon, Szakacsy demonstrated his ability to keep plays alive by scrambling, a foreign concept for the ASU offense up to that point.

Ultimately, I believe the Bruins will win a tight, hard-fought game this Saturday for two reasons. 1.) It’s senior day in Pasadena, and two of the best defensive players in the history of the program (CB Alterraun Verner, LB Reggie Carter) will be playing their final game in the Rose Bowl (and junior DT Brian Price is probably gone after this season as well). 2.) UCLA can become bowl eligible with a victory, which means the USC game is no longer a must win.

I look for the Bruins to prevail in a close and very physical game.

Prediction: UCLA 24 – Arizona State 20

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: K Thomas Weber - In a close game, a player like Weber becomes invaluable. His groin injury appears to be a thing of the past, so the Devils should be in scoring range once they cross the Bruins’ 40-yard line.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Chane Moline - Moline is coming off of a 3 TD game against Wazzu, and the versatile fullback could have a big impact again this week.

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Before the season even started, I remember having this game circled as an extremely evenly matched one. My opinion hasn’t changed.

Both teams have weak offenses, both have strong defenses, both are clearly outside of the conference’s top tier, and both have wins over both Washington schools.

I’d consider this game a virtual coinflip. Yes UCLA has looked to be in better form over the last few weeks, but ASU’s four-game losing streak pretty much looks like UCLA’s five-game one did.

Before the season started, I picked UCLA to finish below ASU in conference play, and I’m sticking with that prediction. I expect a low-scoring ugly game with plenty of great defense and punting, and Arizona State to come out on top when it’s all said and done.

Prediction: Arizona State 16 – UCLA 13

UCLA Bruins 4-5 Overall (1-5 Conference)

This Week’s Score: UCLA 24 – Washington 23

Next Week’s Opponent: @Washington State

UCLA will NOT go winless in the conference!

That wasn’t too big of a concern with Washington State coming up this week, but it is still good to get the win out of the way.

For most of the season, UCLA’s offense hasn’t given the defense and the team a chance to win, and the Bruins have stock-piled the in-conference losses because of it. This Saturday, the offense seemed to be TRYING to give the game away, but the defense wouldn’t allow it in hanging on for the win.

FIVE turnovers? UCLA simply couldn’t hang on to the ball on Saturday with Terrence Austin, Richard Brehaut, and Jonathan Franklin all losing the ball on fumbles. The Bruins fumbled three other times in the game as well, but recovered those. Kevin Prince and Kevin Craft each threw an interception to add to the turnover woes.

Craft took over for Prince after Prince left the game with an injury late in the first half on a helmet-to-helmet hit. Both quarterbacks had good days, with Prince going 13/17 for 212 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and Craft going 10/14 for 159 yards with a TD and an INT as well.

The Bruins defense didn’t have much of an answer for Chris Polk or Jermaine Kearse, but they played the bend-don’t-break to perfection, forcing Washington to settle for four FG tries, including one miss in the fourth quarter that ended up deciding the game.

How incredible is Rahim Moore? With Jake Locker marching the Huskies into Bruins territory with time winding down, Moore saved the game with an interception; the Bruins’ only forced turnover of the game. 2nd and 3 on the UCLA 46 with all three time outs, Washington was looking primed to steal this one late. Moore’s interception brought his season tally to eight, tied with Clemson’s DeAndre McDaniel for tops in the country.

It was ugly – very ugly – but a win is a win, and the Bruins were in dire need of one. They should get another this week against Washington State, and then they come home for a key game against Arizona State for bowl eligibility.

Keep in mind that bowl eligibility doesn’t guarantee a bowl; the conference already has six bowl-eligible teams. That said, a six win season and three wins in conference after an 0-5 start would certainly be nothing to sneeze at.

UCLA Bruins 3-5 Overall (0-5 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 26 – UCLA 19

Next Week’s Opponent: Washington

Everyone knew that a successful rebuilding of the program wasn’t going to happen overnight, but it doesn’t make the losing any less difficult to swallow.

In week two, after UCLA went into Tennessee and played such a physical, smash-mouth game to upset the Volunteers, the Bruins gave their fans hope for the season. A 3-0 start also made a bowl game look like a very realistic possibility.

But that hope has fizzled out, and Rick Neuheisel is preaching patience. Patience is key, and there is plenty of young talent here, and they will learn from games like this one.

The defense did a great job bending-not-breaking for most of the afternoon, forcing the Beavers to settle for field goal tries five times (four were good). An offense as explosive as this is going to get its share of yards (463), so keeping them out of the endzone for most of the game was a small victory.

But as has been the story for most of the season, the offense was the problem once again. The offense was non-existent for the first three quarters, due in large part to an abysmal day on the ground. This team struggles enough WITH an established running game, so with Jonathan Franklin rushing for only 37 yards on 14 carries, it just felt like a long day.

Kevin Prince had a nice game and had a very inspired effort in the fourth quarter, leading the team to two touchdown drives (the first capped off by a 58-yard TD reception by Nelson Rosario) as well as two two-point conversions to tie the game up at 19. Unfortunately, with all the momentum shifted in the Bruins’ favor, the defense couldn’t come up with the stop.

And that’s been the story this season; if it isn’t one thing, it’s another. The defense played well enough all game long to keep the Bruins in the game, but the offense did nothing for the first three quarters. Then they finally wake up in the 4th quarter, but the defense can’t come up with one more big stop. This team is learning the hard way that you need a strong effort for all four quarters to win games.

The bowl hopes aren’t over yet. UCLA hosts Washington this week, @Washington State next week, and then back at home for Arizona State; all winnable games if the Bruins play their best for 60 minutes… something we haven’t seen since week two in Tennessee.

UCLA Bruins (3-4) vs. Oregon State Beavers (4-3)
Saturday, October 31, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -9.5

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

Both Oregon State and UCLA suffered disappointing losses last week, but for far different reasons. The Beavers gave the Trojans everything they wanted plus some (OSU outgained ‘SC 482-429 yards), and a special teams breakdown may have been the only thing preventing OSU from a 3-1 record in the Pac-10. Meanwhile, UCLA found a way to lose to UA despite generating five turnovers, as the Bruins offense looked hopelessly lost.

It’s hard to envision a UCLA win here, especially with the way OSU’s Sean Canfield is playing (1,734 yards 11 TDs, 4 INTS, 68.2 % completions). Obviously, we know the Rodgers brothers will always get their yards, but when Canfield is throwing well the Beavers can pile up points on anyone. I have been most impressed by the offensive balance from Mike Riley’s team in the last few games, as players like WR Damola Adeniji, and TE Joe Halahuni have given the offense another dimension.

A strong argument could be made that RB ‘Quizz Rodgers deserves to go to New York for the Heisman Presentation. He has accounted for 1,089 total yards (810 rushing) and 15 TDs, including a 113 yard, 1 TD day against a Trojans D that ranks fifth nationally against the run. While UCLA features a stout front seven led by DT Brain Price, I don’t think any defense can stop ‘Quizz right now.

For UCLA, the offense has to find an identity this week. As strong as Oregon State has looked on offense, the defense has proven to be vulnerable (particularly against the pass). I am interested to see what Rick Neuheisel does at the QB position if Kevin Prince struggles early. Will we see QB Richard Brehaut take meaningful snaps in Corvallis? RB Jonathan Franklin has proven to be a reliable playmaker, but the overall lack of explosion in Norm Chow’s offense is very disconcerting.

I still have great respect for the UCLA defense, but until the offense can show some signs of life, the losing skid will continue. I look for Oregon State to come away with a workmanlike victory at Reser Stadium.

Prediction: Oregon State 31 – UCLA 20

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: S Rahim Moore – The highly-instinctive Moore has been a bright spot for the Bruins all season, and he enters Saturday’s game looking to add to his NCAA-best seven interceptions.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Casey Kjos – Kjos only has six catches on the year, but he showed great route-running ability last week against USC and I believe he will contribute more and more as the season progresses.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

After yet another respectable game last week (albeit in a losing effort), Oregon State has firmly placed themselves in that “best of the rest” category with Arizona behind Oregon and USC. UCLA on the other hand looks completely lost; even with all of the turnovers last week, the offense never gave the team a chance to win.

As brilliantly as Sean Canfield has been playing, the real story in this one just might be UCLA’s inability to stop the run. Since conference play has started, UCLA has given up over 200 yards rushing in three of the four games they have played, with their “best” effort coming against Stanford where they gave up 174 yards rushing and Toby Gerhart had 134 yards and three touchdowns.

Since that Stanford game, UCLA has given up 719 rushing yards, good for just under 240/game. Going up against one of the premiere backs in the entire country in Jacquizz Rodgers, do you really expect things to get better this week?

Even if the Bruins can find some answers on offense against a less-than-stellar Beavers defense, I can’t see them finding any way to keep up with this offense, which has been outstanding in conference play and should continue to be this week. With two potentially winnable games at home against Washington and ASU as well as a road game against Washington State coming up, UCLA’s bowl dreams aren’t completely shattered just yet; but I don’t think the game in Corvallis is going to help any.

Prediction: Oregon State 34 – UCLA 17

UCLA Bruins 3-4 Overall (0-4 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 27 – UCLA 13

Next Week’s Opponent: @Oregon State

The Bruins are in a state of regression right now, and Rick Neuheisel will need to put together a substantial coaching effort for the Bruins to right the ship. After an encouraging 3-0 start to the season, UCLA is now staring at a potential 0-5 start to the Pac-10 season. To be fair, the Bruins have faced four of the conference’s best so far (Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UA), and with winnable games on the horizon it’s not time to panic yet.

At the top of the “to do” list for Neuheisel is figuring out the quarterback situation, and quickly. Let’s be honest…QB Kevin Prince is struggling. The freshman has not looked the same since breaking his jaw in the endzone of Neyland Stadium, and his performance in Tucson was especially disheartening (7/15 60 yards). Should Norm Chow consider giving QB Richard Brehaut a shot? I believe the answer is yes. I’m not saying it’s time to give up on Prince for good, as I still believe he can be a productive starter for UCLA. But right now he doesn’t seem to be playing with any confidence, and a change may spark the offense.

While there certainly needs to be more productivity at the quarterback position, UCLA has a variety of other offensive issues. The youth of the offensive line is starting to show, and the receivers have been terrible. I believed the Bruins had more quality depth at wideout and tight end than almost any other team in the conference, but where are the playmakers? I was also very disappointed in the running game against UA, as Jonathan Franklin and Co. were held to 65 yards rushing (2.8 YPC).

Defensively, the Bruins did some good things. While the ‘Cats moved the ball quite a bit on the day (456 yards), UCLA generated five turnovers, including two interceptions by the ultra-intuitive and opportunistic Rahim Moore (who now has an NCAA best seven on the year). I still believe that this Bruins D is good enough to keep the team in games, but its not good enough to win them by itself (defense had a hand in all 13 UCLA points).

UCLA travels to Corvallis this week for a date with another upper-echelon Pac-10 team. Upset the Beavers, and a four game winning streak is a strong possibility. But a lopsided loss could kill the demeanor of the team, as well as the bowl hopes.

UCLA Bruins (3-3) vs. Arizona Wildcats (4-2)
Saturday, October 24, 3:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Arizona -7.5

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

UCLA and Arizona are heading in opposite directions right now. The Bruins have looked lost as of late, and last week’s beatdown at the hands of Cal was especially disheartening. Meanwhile, Arizona is quietly putting together the best offense in the Pac-10, led by a rising star in QB Nick Foles.

Arizona has been a part of two thrillers in a row, losing a heartbreaker in Seattle and then mounting an incredibly exciting comeback against Stanford. This week, I think Mike Stoops will be able to breathe a little easier but this game is by no means a lock.

A strong argument could be made that QB Nick Foles is the best signal caller in the Pac-10, as his numbers have been nothing short of remarkable (1,152 yards passing 9 TDs 2 INTs, 73.9% completions on the season). The rise of Foles has now made the ‘Cats as balanced as any offense in college football right now, as the running game is still extremely potent with three all-conference caliber performers in the backfield. Nic Grisby appears to be fully healthy, so the UCLA defense will have its hands full this Saturday.

For UCLA, there is some reason to believe the offense can come through this week. Schematically, Norm Chow does a lot of the same things as Stanford, particularly in his use of tight ends and fullbacks. Jim Harbaugh’s club exploited a talented UA secondary last week, so the blueprint is there for Chow to take advantage of. If QB Kevin Prince can make good decisions, UCLA will have a puncher’s chance. I would also like to see RB Jonathan Franklin get the ball more this week, as he is the most explosive threat right now for the Bruins.

As good as CB Alterraun Verner and S Rahim Moore are, the other half of the UCLA secondary could be in for a long day against a dynamic UA passing attack. I believe the ‘Cats offense is going to be a little bit too versatile for UCLA’s D this week, and that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Arizona 35 – UCLA 27

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Logan Paulsen – Paulsen’s play was a bright spot from the Cal game and I think he is the perfect mismatch option for Prince because of his big frame and deceptive speed.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Juron Criner – Any one of six UA receivers could be the player to keep an eye on this week, but Criner seems to be surging right now.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

Looking ahead to this game a few weeks ago, it was looking like a clash between UCLA’s stingy defense and Arizona’s high powered offense. Arizona has kept up their end of the deal, slashing through conference opponents on offense ever since Nick Foles has taken over at QB; but what happened to UCLA’s defense?

The Oregon game was not the defense’s fault, considering the fact that they only gave up one offensive touchdown in that one. But that had a lot to do with Nate Costa’s ineffectiveness; the running defense has been awful for three straight games, giving up a woeful 228 YPG since conference play has started. The Cal game was a complete disaster defensively as the Bears just ripped off big play after big play in routing the Bruins at home.

After seeing what I saw last week, I just don’t believe that UCLA is going to magically re-find themselves on defense on the road against one of the conference’s most explosive offenses. The Bruins might also see a healthy dose of Nic Grigsby, Greg Nwoko, and Keola Antolin if they can’t do anything to prove they can stop the run. And if the rushing attack establishes itself and sets up this passing game… oh my.

Offensively, the Bruins took some nice strides last week; and the Wildcats defense has been less than stellar of late. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UCLA put some points up this week; but I don’t see them slowing down Arizona’s attack, and they won’t be able to keep up with it.

Prediction: Arizona 34 – UCLA 20

UCLA Bruins 3-3 Overall (0-3 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Cal 45 – UCLA 26

Next Week’s Opponent: @Arizona

It feels like forever ago that the Bruins triumphantly marched into Tennessee and upset the Volunteers for the second straight year, doesn’t it?

After a perfect 3-0 start, the Bruins have come out of the bye week with three straight losses. While Stanford, Oregon, and Cal could all very well end up in the top half of the conference, it doesn’t do much to lessen the sting of the losing streak.

The defense has surprisingly been a major concern for the Bruins during conference play, especially in the running game. After giving up 174 yards on the ground to Stanford and 221 to Oregon, the Bruins had another awful day against the run vs. Cal, surrendering 289 yards.

UCLA gave up six touchdowns Saturday, all on huge plays. Marvin Jones had two TD grabs for 43 yards and 24 yards, Jahvid Best had a 51 yard touchdown catch and a 93-yard run, and Shane Vereen had a 42-yard scoring run. But it isn’t just the defense giving up the big plays; for the second straight game, Kevin Prince has thrown a pick-6, this one returned for 68 yards.

The Bruins lost the turnover battle 2-0, and both turnovers led to touchdowns. This team simply cannot afford to turn the ball over.

If there was a positive to take from Saturday’s game, it would be amassing 448 yards of total offense. With the exception of the pick-6, Kevin Prince had a nice day, going 21/41 for 311 yards. Jonathan Franklin had 101 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries, and Logan Paulsen led the receiving corps with five catches for 96 yards.

It was good to see the offense come alive a bit; but not good enough. The defense will have to find its form in a hurry if the Bruins are to have any chance of beating Arizona this weekend.

UCLA Bruins 3-1 Overall (0-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Stanford 24 – UCLA 16

Next Week’s Opponent: Oregon

After a humbling loss in Stanford, UCLA will return to the Rose Bowl and try and regroup against an Oregon team that has been red-hot of late, but is also decimated with injuries.

While the loss to Stanford does tell us that UCLA isn’t quite there yet in terms of being a major contender in the conference, it doesn’t really tell us how far away they are. Stanford is clearly playing at a high level right now on both sides of the ball, so there is no shame in losing to a team like this on the road.

That said, it did open up some new questions on defense. Andrew Luck and Toby Gerhart both had outstanding days, and while that has a lot to do with their talent level and the way they’ve been playing lately, it just didn’t look like the shutdown UCLA defense that we are used to seeing. The Bruins will have to be better defensively if they are going to stand any chance in conference play this year.

On the offensive side of the ball, hats off to Kevin Craft. He clearly doesn’t have the skill set that Kevin Prince does, but he did a good job managing the game Saturday, completing 64.7% of his passes with no interceptions while spreading the ball around to nine different receivers. Prince will take back over this week, and should follow Craft’s example and get as many players on offense involved as possible  to keep Oregon guessing.

Jonathan Franklin didn’t look bad in racking up 58 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, but down 14-3 early in the second quarter, the offense had to start throwing the ball.

The Oregon Ducks come into town ripe to be upset. Their two top cornerbacks are injured, QB Jeremiah Masoli is doubtful, and they haven’t played on the road in over a month. If the defense steps up and Kevin Prince hasn’t missed a step, a Bruins victory isn’t out of the question.

The Tennessee upset was a very nice win for the program, but this one would be even bigger if they could pull it off.

UCLA Bruins 3-0 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: UCLA 23 – Kansas State 9

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

I know I keep playing this game, but think back to before the season started. Suppose I told you that heading into week four, two teams in the Pac-10 were going to be 3-0, and both were in California.

I would have been telling you the truth. But who’d have penciled in UCLA to be the undefeated team in Southern California?

UCLA heads into their bye week a perfect 3-0, highlighted of course by their upset win in Tennessee. With Kevin Prince sidelined with a broken jaw, UCLA ran a nice safe offense against Kansas State and let their defense do the work. The Bruins have had at least two interceptions in all three of their contests this season, kept alive last Saturday by Alterraun Verner’s two picks.

While I again don’t claim to know what is best for the team over Rick Neuheisel (who clearly does), I was personally not thrilled at all to see Kevin Craft under center for the Bruins Saturday. He didn’t do much to prove me wrong either; his 13/24, 186 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT day wasn’t all that bad, but against Kansas State, it didn’t do anything to lead me to believe he’s ready to successfully hold the fort down until Prince gets back.

Jonathan Franklin built on his impressive effort against Tennessee, this time rushing for 119 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. He and Derrick Coleman (who also had a nice day with 46 yards on eight carries) will be leaned on heavily for the rest of the season, but even more so in Prince’s absence.

I hate to be so hard on Kevin Craft, but I watched enough UCLA games last year to have the image of him throwing a horrible interception and being scolded by Neuheisal for it permanently burned into my skull. When UCLA heads into Stanford to start conference play a week from Saturday, can you really trust him to make plays when the offense needs it, and more importantly to NOT TURN THE BALL OVER?

We don’t know much about Richard Brehaut, but we know plenty about Kevin Craft. I’d love to see Brehaut get a look over the next week and a half, but Saturday’s game told us which direction Neuheisel is leaning. He undoubtedly knows better than I do; but if Craft starts that game and implodes, it’ll be hard not to say I told you so.

But for now, no need to stress about that; enjoy your week off Bruin fans, and congrats on the excellent start.

Kansas State (1-1) vs. UCLA Bruins (2-0)
Saturday, September 19, 7:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: UCLA -12.5

Sam’s Take (14 – 4):

The UCLA Bruins took a big step with the win in Knoxville last Saturday, but now they must find a way to carry the momentum for the next few weeks without starting QB Kevin Prince. The likely replacement for Prince will be true freshman Richard Brehaut, but Kevin Craft has also practiced with the first team this week.

While Brehaut certainly has talent, the Bruins will probably not ask him to do much. This team can win with defense, special teams, and a solid running game, and I expect that to be the recipe for victory this week against Kansas State.

Coach Rick Neuheisel has suspended four players for the K-State game, including starting cornerback Courtney Viney. Still, even with all of the injuries and distractions I foresee a relatively comfortable win for the Bruins.

Bill Snyder will get his Wildcats back to national prominence (when he fielded teams with superstars like Ell Roberson and Darren Sproles in the early part of the decade), but they are not even close right now. Snyder’s decision to return to Manhattan this season excited KSU fans, but with a bad performance against Massachusetts and an inexplicable loss to UL Lafayette, the honeymoon period seems to be over.

I look for the Bruins D to be utterly dominant, while tailbacks Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman should carry the offense.

Prediction: UCLA 28 – Kansas State 13

Kansas State Player to Keep an Eye On: QB Carson Coffman – Coffman has been shaky so far, and was benched briefly in the first half of the loss to UL Lafayette. Nonetheless, he will remain the K-State quarterback and must be MUCH better against the Bruins than what he has shown through two games.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Sheldon Price - Price is a true freshman filling in for the suspended Viney (who was filling in for the injured Hester). His play will be interesting to watch, as it will give us some indication of how deep the Bruins are at corner.

Dave’s Take (14 – 4):

To carry the momentum of the Tennessee win back home and turn it into a three game winning streak, UCLA will need to avoid the slow start that they had against the Aztecs in their season opener.

With Kevin Prince out for 3-4 weeks with a broken jaw, it will be up to either Richard Brehaut or Kevin Craft (or perhaps a bit of both) to keep things afloat. Personally, I think playing Craft would be a mistake; so many good things have happened here in 2009 that sending Craft back out there would just bring back all of the visions of 2008’s struggles. But maybe I’m just being dramatic, and I’m sure Rick Neuheisel has a much better idea of what’s best for the team than I do.

If they can avoid the slow start they had against San Diego State, it shouldn’t matter who’s at quarterback; they should be able to win this game on running the football, defense, and special teams. Kansas State will have a lot of trouble finding the endzone on offense. Defensively they do have some good athletes, and if Kevin Craft is in there and makes the same bad decisions he did last year, it could spell trouble.

In the end, I don’t expect the Bruins to ask their quarterback to do too much; just hand off the ball and ultra-safe passes, and let the defense and special teams do the rest. UCLA should come out on top here, but if they suffer from a letdown and fall behind early, this one could be dangerous.

Prediction: UCLA 20 – Kansas State 10