Oregon State Beavers (8-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (9-2)
Thursday, December 3, 6:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -9.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Year*

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Last year I watched in stunned silence as Oregon throttled Oregon State in Corvallis, and all I remember thinking by the time the 65-38 massacre ended was “Will the Beavers ever have a chance to truly get redemption?” Here we are just one year later, and somehow, that question can be answered with an emphatic yes. Now the stakes are higher than ever, as this will be the first time in the history of the Civil War that both programs can clinch a Rose Bowl berth with a victory.

I see two key areas that will be deciding factors in the War for the Roses.

1. Oregon running game vs. Oregon State run defense – This is the most obvious strength vs. strength match up. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-10 and eighth nationally in rushing offense, while the Beavers rank first in the Pac-10 and 13th nationally in run defense. Obviously Oregon easily won this battle last year, so it will be interesting to see how Mark Banker’s unit performs on Thursday.

2. Oregon State passing game vs. Oregon pass defense – This appears to be the second biggest strength vs. strength match up. OSU heads to Eugene with the best passing offense in the Pac-10 (24th nationally) and QB Sean Canfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference. Despite season ending injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper, the Ducks still rank second in the Pac-10 against pass (29th nationally).

In my opinion, both defenses will struggle in this game. I have no doubt that Mark Banker will have a great game plan this week, but it may not matter. When the Ducks are rolling, they can execute their high-powered attack against any defensive scheme in the country. I also think Nick Aliotti’s unit will be in for a long game. The Ducks have yet to face ‘Quizz Rodgers, and the balanced Beaver attack can score in a variety of ways.

Ultimately, I believe Autzen Stadium will be the difference… again. Jeremiah Masoli has another gear when he plays at home, which makes Oregon’s offensive attack that much tougher to contain. I expect Masoli and LaMichael James to get going early, which will then open passing lanes for the talented Ducks receiving corps. While I expect the Beavers to match UO score for score until late in the second half, Mike Riley’s club will come up a little short in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

Here’s hoping for a classic!

Prediction: Oregon 42 – Oregon State 38

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni has been one of the biggest surprises on this OSU offense in 2009, and the sophomore will be a huge part of the passing game again this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: FS T.J. Ward – Ward is a physical defensive back who should play a huge role in defending the run as well as the pass. I look for him to have a big impact this week.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

When this game was scheduled back at the beginning of the season to be the prime time game on ESPN Thursday night, no one could have imagined just how big this game would be.

For either team to have the chance to clinch the Rose Bowl in this one is quite a feat; but winner take all? This is the sort of thing that you see in movies.

After going 10 straight years (1997-2006) trading blows with the home team winning every time, Oregon State finally bucked the trend in 2007 with a double OT winner at Autzen. The Ducks returned the favor in 2008, stomping the Beavers in Corvallis and costiing them a trip to the Rose Bowl. While there is little doubt that home field advantage will still play a big role in this game, the fact that the road team has won the last two games adds an interesting wrinkle.

As much as I really do believe the Beavers have a great chance in this one, I can’t pick against the Ducks, especially at home. The Ducks have now put up 42+ points in seven straight games that Jeremiah Masoli has started, and since conference play has begun they have just mowed through top conference opponents (dropping #6 Cal by 38 and #5 USC by 27).

I expect a much more competitive game than last year, but can’t find enough of an edge for the Beavers to overrule the fact that the game is in Autzen.

Prediction: Oregon 48 – Oregon State 42

Oregon State Beavers 7-3 Overall (5-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 48  – Washington 21

Next Week’s Opponent: @Washington State

Beaver fans, you may have to temporarily put aside your hatred for the Ducks in order to embrace a potential Civil War for the ages. If Oregon beats Arizona, the stage will essentially be set (sorry Wazzu). In fact, an Oregon win in Tucson would give OSU a better chance to control its own destiny considering the fact that UA beat the Beavers earlier this season. If Oregon beats UA, and OSU beats UO, the Beavers will hold the tiebreaker over the Ducks and Stanford (assuming the Cardinal win out). So for one week, cheering for the enemy is acceptable.

As for Saturday’s win over Washington, that was exactly the kind of performance Oregon State needed at this point in the season. Mike Riley’s club is absolutely rolling, and I have a hard time believing many teams in America could beat OSU right now. I remember telling a friend of mine early in the season “How good would Oregon State be if they had more than just the Rodgers brothers on offense?” Well, I got my answer in these last few games. As good as Oregon and Stanford have been offensively, I don’t think OSU is far behind. ‘Quizz and James have been great, but I don’t need to talk about them.

Instead let’s talk about the absolute brilliance of QB Sean Canfield. The senior could very well be the best QB in the Pac-10, and he turned in an especially impressive performance against the Dawgs (21/29 185 yards 4 TDs 0 INTs). Canfield hit seven different receivers against UW, and I continue to be amazed at the chemistry that he has developed with TE Joe Halahuni (who made only two catches but both were TDs).

Defensively, the Beavers limited a good Washington offense to only 274 total yards. Statistically, QB Jake Locker had a solid day (14/23 153 yards 3 TDs 1 INT) but he was pressured all game and sacked four times. Mark Banker’s D has steadily improved throughout the year, and the unit deserves a lot of credit for never losing confidence.

Up next for OSU are those friendly Cougars. I recommend playing ‘Quizz, James, Canfield and the first team as little as possible because a serious injury is not worth risking. Assuming all goes well in Pullman, a dream Civil War could follow.

Washington Huskies (3-6) vs. Oregon State Beavers (6-3)
Saturday, November 14, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -13.0

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

Anyone surprised to see Oregon State getting better every week? With all due respect to Washington State, OSU is essentially one win away from another high stakes Civil War showdown. The Beavers are playing lights out in all three phases of the game, and a conference title is still possible if a few things go their way.

Meanwhile, the Huskies are desperately trying to fight their way into the postseason. UW must win out (and that still might not be enough), and the first step will be finding a way to end an 11 game road-losing streak.

The recipe for stopping Mike Riley’s club used to be simple; contain the Rodgers brothers. But in recent weeks, QB Sean Canfield has forced defensive coordinators to completely re-write their game plans. The senior signal caller is completing 70% of his passes this season, and he is coming off of a season-high 342 yard game against Cal.

Suddenly the Beavers are full of playmakers, as Adeniji, Halahuni, Kjos, Bishop, and Nichols are all contributing. I expect more of the same from the OSU offense this week, as the unit will be facing a UW D that ranks 102nd nationally in total defense and 111th against the pass.

I can only see one path to victory for the Dawgs this week, and it requires a huge effort from QB Jake Locker. As bad as UW has been defending the pass, OSU is even worse (113th nationally in pass defense). If Locker can regain his early season form, the Huskies may have a punchers chance.

Ultimately, I think the Beavers will overwhelm Washington with a balanced offensive attack.

Prediction: Oregon State 37 – Washington 23

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Devin Aguilar – Every week I tend to spotlight a UW receiver, as this really is a talented group. The wideouts will have to be particularly productive Saturday against a vulnerable secondary, and I feel like Aguilar will rise to the occasion.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni looks like the best tight end in the conference right now, and I expect him to have another big game this week.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

Washington has played some very competitive football this season, but they’ve also reminded us that the rebuilding of a program doesn’t happen overnight.

Oregon State, meanwhile, has taken to their yearly trend of getting better as the season goes on, and with the way they are playing right now they have a shot against anyone in the conference.

One of the biggest stories this season has been the emergence of Sean Canfield into a star quarterback. It’s hard to believe there was actually supposed to be a QB battle with Lyle Moevao this fall. No quarterback in the Pac-10 has been much better than Canfield, and his season has helped other Beavers like Joe Halahuni and Damola Adeniji take their game to the next level as well.

The Washington defense has a good mentor in Nick Holt, but they don’t quite have the talent level yet to slow down a high-powered offense like this one. The Huskies will put some points up as well, but I expect a comfortable Beavers victory.

Prediction: Oregon State 38 – Washington 20

Oregon State Beavers 6-3 Overall (4-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 31 – Cal 14

Next Week’s Opponent: Washington

The horrifying visual of Jahvid Best landing hard on his upper back was all that any of us could think of during and after the game against the Cal Bears last Saturday; injuries like that transcend the action on the field. Fortunately, it appears that Jahvid Best will be okay, and suffered from a concussion; he has movement in all of extremities.

While the horrific injury may have taken our attention away from the game, the game did still go on; and it was one that the Beavers completely dominated.

‘Quizz Rodgers had a rare quiet day, rushing for only 67 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries (and hauling in nine catches for 30 yards), but Sean Canfield (29/39, 342 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and his favorite targets took care of the rest. James Rodgers (six catches, 80 yards and a TD) and Damola Adeniji (five catches, 87 yards) both had huge days, but breakout star tight end Joe Halahuni led the way with six catches for 128 yards. Jordan Bishop also added a touchdown on his sole reception.

Defensively, the Beavers had their best day of the season by far, allowing only 239 yards of total offense, including a minuscule 39 yards on the ground. The Bears obviously needed to take to the air more often in the second half down 24-7, but even before they abandoned the run, they’d never really been able to establish it in the first place (Best had 29 yards on 9 carries before leaving the game).

And here we are again; the Beavers are in the midst of their annual late season run. Sean Canfield has been nothing short of spectacular this season, and with both him and ‘Quizz Rodgers playing at All-Pac-10 levels, this offense is nearly impossible to stop. The Beavers now find themselves with an outside-chance at a Rose Bowl bid; as if they needed more motivation for the showdown @Oregon.

But no looking ahead; first, take care of Washington.

UCLA Bruins (3-4) vs. Oregon State Beavers (4-3)
Saturday, October 31, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -9.5

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

Both Oregon State and UCLA suffered disappointing losses last week, but for far different reasons. The Beavers gave the Trojans everything they wanted plus some (OSU outgained ‘SC 482-429 yards), and a special teams breakdown may have been the only thing preventing OSU from a 3-1 record in the Pac-10. Meanwhile, UCLA found a way to lose to UA despite generating five turnovers, as the Bruins offense looked hopelessly lost.

It’s hard to envision a UCLA win here, especially with the way OSU’s Sean Canfield is playing (1,734 yards 11 TDs, 4 INTS, 68.2 % completions). Obviously, we know the Rodgers brothers will always get their yards, but when Canfield is throwing well the Beavers can pile up points on anyone. I have been most impressed by the offensive balance from Mike Riley’s team in the last few games, as players like WR Damola Adeniji, and TE Joe Halahuni have given the offense another dimension.

A strong argument could be made that RB ‘Quizz Rodgers deserves to go to New York for the Heisman Presentation. He has accounted for 1,089 total yards (810 rushing) and 15 TDs, including a 113 yard, 1 TD day against a Trojans D that ranks fifth nationally against the run. While UCLA features a stout front seven led by DT Brain Price, I don’t think any defense can stop ‘Quizz right now.

For UCLA, the offense has to find an identity this week. As strong as Oregon State has looked on offense, the defense has proven to be vulnerable (particularly against the pass). I am interested to see what Rick Neuheisel does at the QB position if Kevin Prince struggles early. Will we see QB Richard Brehaut take meaningful snaps in Corvallis? RB Jonathan Franklin has proven to be a reliable playmaker, but the overall lack of explosion in Norm Chow’s offense is very disconcerting.

I still have great respect for the UCLA defense, but until the offense can show some signs of life, the losing skid will continue. I look for Oregon State to come away with a workmanlike victory at Reser Stadium.

Prediction: Oregon State 31 – UCLA 20

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: S Rahim Moore – The highly-instinctive Moore has been a bright spot for the Bruins all season, and he enters Saturday’s game looking to add to his NCAA-best seven interceptions.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Casey Kjos – Kjos only has six catches on the year, but he showed great route-running ability last week against USC and I believe he will contribute more and more as the season progresses.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

After yet another respectable game last week (albeit in a losing effort), Oregon State has firmly placed themselves in that “best of the rest” category with Arizona behind Oregon and USC. UCLA on the other hand looks completely lost; even with all of the turnovers last week, the offense never gave the team a chance to win.

As brilliantly as Sean Canfield has been playing, the real story in this one just might be UCLA’s inability to stop the run. Since conference play has started, UCLA has given up over 200 yards rushing in three of the four games they have played, with their “best” effort coming against Stanford where they gave up 174 yards rushing and Toby Gerhart had 134 yards and three touchdowns.

Since that Stanford game, UCLA has given up 719 rushing yards, good for just under 240/game. Going up against one of the premiere backs in the entire country in Jacquizz Rodgers, do you really expect things to get better this week?

Even if the Bruins can find some answers on offense against a less-than-stellar Beavers defense, I can’t see them finding any way to keep up with this offense, which has been outstanding in conference play and should continue to be this week. With two potentially winnable games at home against Washington and ASU as well as a road game against Washington State coming up, UCLA’s bowl dreams aren’t completely shattered just yet; but I don’t think the game in Corvallis is going to help any.

Prediction: Oregon State 34 – UCLA 17

Oregon State Beavers 4-3 Overall (2-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: USC 42 – Oregon State 36

Next Week’s Opponent: UCLA

While it’s always disappointing to come out of a hard fought game with a loss, the Beavers have a lot to be happy about, especially on offense. Oregon State proved once again this week that they can compete with anyone, and they should have a lot of say in how the conference ends up shaping up down the stretch.

482 yards and 36 points is a heck of an output against one of the nation’s best defenses; especially on their home turf. Sean Canfield had another fantastic day, going 30/43 for 329 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He spread the ball out to eight different receivers, including the day’s biggest surprise, TE Joe Halahuni who had a career day with nine catches and 127 yards. Damola Adeniji had another nice day with 81 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions, and James Rodgers caught a TD pass as well.

Jacquizz Rodgers knew he’d be game-planned for a lot more than he was last time around, but it didn’t seem to bother him; he rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries for a TD and caught for another one. ‘Quizz continues to quietly keep his name in the dark horse Heisman candidate conversation; in a year where they seemingly can’t give the trophy away, a few more big performances could earn some support in Rodgers’ corner.

The defensive side of the ball was not so exciting. Is it time to push the panic button yet? Oregon State’s defensive unit is usually its strength, but that just hasn’t been the case this season. The Beavers haven’t given up less than 375 total yards in a game since UNLV (and have given up over 400 in three of the five), and haven’t given up less than 200 passing yards in any game at all this season.

After the great success USC had running the ball (227 yards), you have to wonder how much of the Beavers’ success against the run this year has simply been due to the fact that opponents have moved the ball so easily through the air. I’d be willing to give the defense a pass due to the overwhelming talent this USC team possesses, but it has been a problem all year; and the unit was another stop or two away from shocking the world for the third time in four years.

Oregon State possesses the offensive firepower to shootout with anyone remaining on their schedule, especially with Canfield playing so well and opening up the Rodgers brothers by finding other receivers. That said, the team might face a fate similar to this week’s in their matchups @Cal and @Oregon if the defense doesn’t step it up.