The 2008-09 season was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Oregon Ducks, but did anyone really see 8-23 (2-16 in Pac-10) coming? Certainly last season was one of the most disappointing of head coach Ernie Kent’s career, however most prognosticators do not foresee a repeat scenario in 2009-10. The Ducks are young, but the talent in Eugene is top notch, and a middle of the conference finish is more than achievable. In fact, the Ducks could end up being one of America’s most improved teams by season’s end.

For Oregon to meet expectations in 2009-10, improvement MUST be made defensively. The Ducks gave up 76 points per game, good enough for dead last in the Pac-10 and 314th nationally. Poor fundamentals were a big part of the problem, which is what prompted Kent to hire one of the best assistant coaches in college basketball, Mike Dunlap. Under Dunlap’s guidance the Ducks should be considerably more organized on defense.

Impact Superstar: G Tajuan Porter

How important is Porter to the Ducks? Last season, he took 20% of the team’s shots, and at times, it seemed like more than that. The sharp-shooting senior can light it up from anywhere on the floor, and he possesses the same unlimited range that Aaron Brooks had during his time in Eugene. Porter averaged 15.4 PPG, 2.5 APG, 2.5 RPG last year, and made a whopping 86 three-pointers (tied for 5th in UO single season history).

The 5-7 guard from Detroit (MI) is among the quickest players in the country, and his experience (helped lead Ducks to Elite Eight as freshman) will be huge for the younger players. While Porter is an explosive scorer, he also has a tendency to force things that aren’t there. His decision-making will be critical for the Ducks in 2009-10, especially given the dynamic players that will now be around him.

I expect Porter to lead the team in scoring again this season, but I would also like to see his assist total go up.

Needs To Have A Big Year: C Michael Dunigan

Dunigan is essentially Impact Superstar 1A. The combination of Porter and Dunigan gives the Ducks one of the most formidable one-two punches in the Pac-10. The sophomore from Chicago (IL) had problems with foul trouble throughout his freshman campaign, but he still averaged 8.4 PPG and 4.6 RPG, while shooting nearly 50% from the field.

At 6-10 242 pounds, Dunigan is a tremendously skilled post player capable of dominating on both sides of the court. The former McDonald’s All-American figures to be much improved this season, as the UO coaches have been very pleased with his off-season conditioning (lost 25 pounds and added more muscle).

I believe Dunigan will soar this year in Eugene, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him develop into the BEST frontcourt player in the Pac-10. If he can stay out of foul trouble, look for Dunigan to be a sure-thing all-conference player.

Potential Impact Newcomer: F Jamil Wilson

Michigan State and Texas made a very hard charge at Wilson during the recruiting season, but the freshman from Racine (WI) elected to play for Ernie Kent. He is an electrifying athlete with a very high ceiling, and along with Abdul Gaddy, will be one of the favorites to win Pac-10 Freshman of the Year. Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all rated him as one of the top 100 players of the 2009 recruiting class.

At 6-7 215 pounds, Wilson is a scoring wing who should help take the load off of Porter right away. He could play the three or four spot depending on the rotation in Kent’s lineup. Wilson has a great face-up game and can hit the three with consistency, which will give the Ducks a perfect complimentary weapon to the already lethal duo of Porter and Dunigan.

Wilson is one of the main reasons experts are high on the Ducks as the season approaches. While the freshman will have a steep learning curve, there is no doubt that the Ducks are a more dynamic offense with him on the court.

My Take

Clearly the talent is there, but will everything come together? After all, Oregon was talented last year too, but hideous defense and overall sloppy play kept this team from reaching its potential. I believe Kent’s Ducks will respond in a big way this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this team finish as high as third or fourth in a rebuilding Pac-10. There are still plenty of question marks, but Oregon has the elite talent (Porter, Dunigan, Wilson) and complimentary role players (Longmire, Catron, Singler, Crittle) to make considerable progress in 2009-10.

Ultimately, I think this team is one year away from being truly special, but by the end of the season, the “Hot Seat” talk surrounding Ernie Kent should be a thing of the past.

Projected Pac-10 Finish: 6th Place

Freshman center Michael Dunigan, who was one of the nation’s top prospects coming out of high school, struggled to stay on the floor for long in games because of foul trouble. He averaged just over eight PPG and looked unpolished offensively. He will need to drastically improve his play if the Ducks are to contend this year in the Pac-10.

Another big man who underperformed for Oregon last season was Josh Crittle. Crittle averaged just three points and three boards per game with the Ducks last season. The team was undersized and did not rebound well – just a couple of reasons why they had such a tough season.

Tajaun Porter cuts through the defense

The one constant for the team was Junior Tajuan Porter, who was the team’s leading scorer with over 15 PPG. The one drawback with the 5′6″ soon-to-be senior is his shoot first mentality. That’s fine for a shooting guard, but if Porter continues to run the point for the Ducks this season, he will have to do a better job finding his teammates. He totaled just 55 assists in the 30 games he played in; not the numbers you want to see from the guy running the show offensively.

Looking forward to the 2009-2010 season:

Departures

Sophomore Guard Kamyron Brown (Transfer) – Transferred out following the signing of transfer Malcolm Armstead. Played in 61 career games (13 as a starter) for the Ducks and averaged 4.4 points and 2.7 assists per game. With the abundance of youth on the team and the development Coach Ernie Kent hopes to see from his young team, losing Brown shouldn’t impact the team too much.

Senior Guard Churchill Odia (Eligibility) – The red-shirt senior out of Lagos, Nigeria was a solid contributor off the bench, averaging 3.2 points and 2.3 rebounds per game in 27 games in 2008-2009.

Senior Forward Frantz Dorsainvil (Eligibility) – Saw very limited action off of the bench in only eight games in his senior campaign.

Arrivals

Freshman Forward E.J. Singler, 6-6 210 pounds (Recruit) – Younger brother of Duke’s Kyle Singler. Singler is sure to be another scoring threat for the Ducks, as he averaged almost 22 PPG in high school and was named the state of Oregon’s prep player of the year.

Freshman Forward Jamil Wilson, 6-7 190 pounds (Recruit) – Led Horlick High in Wisconsin in most statistical categories with 21.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.8 blocks and 1.4 steals as a senior. At 6′7″, he will also give the team some much needed size and athleticism at the forward position.

Sophomore Guard Malcolm Armstead, 5-10 185 pounds (Transfer) – A transfer from Chipola Junior College in Marianna, Fla. Armstead averaged 6.8 points, 4.9 assists and 1.9 steals last season for a team that lost only twice all of last year. He also shot better than 50 percent from beyond the arch, something Coach Kent is sure to enjoy having on his team.

Sophomore Forward Jeremy Jacob, 6-7 220 pounds (Transfer) – A teammate of Armstead’s at Chipola. He helped lead the team along with Armstead to a third place finish at the 2009 National Junior College Athletic Association championships.

My Take

The team will still be full of young players needing to develop their all-around game. They should have enough experience and athleticism as a team to improve on their 8-23 record from last season, but expecting this team to make a post-season run at this juncture would probably be unreasonable. If they come together and improve as a team, 2010-2011 might be the year they make a run at it.