MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS
Las Vegas, Nevada
#18 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) VS. #14 BYU Cougars (10-2)
Tuesday, December 22, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -2.5

Sam’s Take (54 – 21):

For the second straight season Oregon State narrowly missed out on a Pac-10 title and the pride and pageantry that comes with representing the conference in the Rose Bowl. Oh, and lets not forget about the all-you-can-eat prime rib at Lawry’s Restaurant in Pasadena. So how will the Beavers find the motivation to play in the Las Vegas Bowl? I’m not sure that they will, but Mike Riley’s club has an exceptional record in bowl games and a win vs. BYU would give OSU six bowl victories in a row.

As I look at this match-up I see two key areas that could decide the game.

1. BYU pass offense vs. OSU pass defense – Max Hall and the potent Cougar offense will be going up against an OSU secondary that struggled against the pass and will be without its most experienced cornerback (CB Tim Clark). I have no doubt Bronco Mendenhall will go right after the Beavers DBs (especially Brandon Hardin) so OSU must be ready to stand up to the pass heavy attack all night.

2. ‘Quizz Rodgers vs. BYU run defense – this is a strength vs. strength match-up as the Pac-10’s third leading rusher (1,377 20 TDs) will be going up against the nation’s 23rd best run defense. Although the Cougars have a stout front seven, I still expect the OSU gameplan to include plenty of ‘Quizz. If the Beavers establish a ground game early, QB Sean Canfield and Co. should have plenty of opportunities in the passing game.

This will be the fifth year in a row that BYU has played a Pac-10 school in the Las Vegas Bowl (2-2 entering this contest). I have no doubt that the Cougs will be ready for OSU, but something tells me this one could go a lot like the Arizona-BYU game in last year’s Vegas Bowl. The Beavers have enough firepower to score with BYU, and I actually think OSU would prefer a shootout.

I’ll take Oregon State in a competitive and entertaining game.

Prediction: Oregon State 37 – BYU 31

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: DT Stephen Paea – For Mark Banker’s defense to frustrate BYU’s offense I believe Paea will be a key. Few defensive tackles are as effective as he is at wreaking havoc in the middle, and that could cause trouble for Max Hall and the Cougars.

BYU Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Dennis Pitta – Pitta is one of the best tight ends in America, and could be a huge match-up problem for OSU. I expect the Mackey Award finalist to be an integral part of the Cougars offensive gameplan.

Dave’s Take (55 – 20):

Well this is a difficult task. I think BYU is going to win this game, but I can’t quite put my finger on why.

We could talk about bowl motivation, and how after suffering the letdown of not going to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State won’t want to be here.

But that doesn’t really work, considering they won under the same circumstances last year, and with five straight bowl game victories, motivation doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Beavers.

We could talk about how the Cougars are statistically stronger across the board, but what does that really prove? The Pac-10 top to bottom this year was arguably the strongest conference in the country while the Mountain West was fairly weak after the top 3.

BYU got both TCU and Utah at home, getting blown out by the Horned Frogs and squeaking by the Utes in OT. That OT thriller was their second huge win of the season, the first coming in the massive upset over Oklahoma in week one. That one was a bit tarnished by Bradford’s injury, but they were playing hard even before the injury took place.

Maybe it is those big marquee wins that have me leaning BYU’s way?

We all know how strong of a team Oregon State is; they were, after all, in a position to win the Pac-10 with a win over Oregon, and they pushed the Ducks to the limit in a hard-faught game. Losses to USC and Arizona also came by less then a touchdown.

But when it comes to big wins, the Beavers only had two wins against teams above .500; Stanford and Cal. Both very good teams at 8-4, but would you consider either win a marquee win? Stanford struggled on the road this season (with the exception of USC of course), and Cal is such a quirky team that you never know what to expect from them.

Does any of this matter? Probably not. But I guess the reason I like BYU here is that these two teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, but the Cougars have shown me that they can dig deep and win the close game late against tough opponents (Oklahoma, Utah). Oregon State beat Cal and Stanford by jumping out to big early leads and hanging on; they haven’t shown us yet this season that they can win close against tough teams, and that might be the main reason they are here instead of in Pasedena in the first place.

I expect this game to come down to the fourth quarter, and Max Hall to have a few more tricks up his sleeve.

Prediction: BYU 31 – Oregon State 27

Oregon State Beavers (8-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (9-2)
Thursday, December 3, 6:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -9.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Year*

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Last year I watched in stunned silence as Oregon throttled Oregon State in Corvallis, and all I remember thinking by the time the 65-38 massacre ended was “Will the Beavers ever have a chance to truly get redemption?” Here we are just one year later, and somehow, that question can be answered with an emphatic yes. Now the stakes are higher than ever, as this will be the first time in the history of the Civil War that both programs can clinch a Rose Bowl berth with a victory.

I see two key areas that will be deciding factors in the War for the Roses.

1. Oregon running game vs. Oregon State run defense – This is the most obvious strength vs. strength match up. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-10 and eighth nationally in rushing offense, while the Beavers rank first in the Pac-10 and 13th nationally in run defense. Obviously Oregon easily won this battle last year, so it will be interesting to see how Mark Banker’s unit performs on Thursday.

2. Oregon State passing game vs. Oregon pass defense – This appears to be the second biggest strength vs. strength match up. OSU heads to Eugene with the best passing offense in the Pac-10 (24th nationally) and QB Sean Canfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference. Despite season ending injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper, the Ducks still rank second in the Pac-10 against pass (29th nationally).

In my opinion, both defenses will struggle in this game. I have no doubt that Mark Banker will have a great game plan this week, but it may not matter. When the Ducks are rolling, they can execute their high-powered attack against any defensive scheme in the country. I also think Nick Aliotti’s unit will be in for a long game. The Ducks have yet to face ‘Quizz Rodgers, and the balanced Beaver attack can score in a variety of ways.

Ultimately, I believe Autzen Stadium will be the difference… again. Jeremiah Masoli has another gear when he plays at home, which makes Oregon’s offensive attack that much tougher to contain. I expect Masoli and LaMichael James to get going early, which will then open passing lanes for the talented Ducks receiving corps. While I expect the Beavers to match UO score for score until late in the second half, Mike Riley’s club will come up a little short in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

Here’s hoping for a classic!

Prediction: Oregon 42 – Oregon State 38

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni has been one of the biggest surprises on this OSU offense in 2009, and the sophomore will be a huge part of the passing game again this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: FS T.J. Ward – Ward is a physical defensive back who should play a huge role in defending the run as well as the pass. I look for him to have a big impact this week.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

When this game was scheduled back at the beginning of the season to be the prime time game on ESPN Thursday night, no one could have imagined just how big this game would be.

For either team to have the chance to clinch the Rose Bowl in this one is quite a feat; but winner take all? This is the sort of thing that you see in movies.

After going 10 straight years (1997-2006) trading blows with the home team winning every time, Oregon State finally bucked the trend in 2007 with a double OT winner at Autzen. The Ducks returned the favor in 2008, stomping the Beavers in Corvallis and costiing them a trip to the Rose Bowl. While there is little doubt that home field advantage will still play a big role in this game, the fact that the road team has won the last two games adds an interesting wrinkle.

As much as I really do believe the Beavers have a great chance in this one, I can’t pick against the Ducks, especially at home. The Ducks have now put up 42+ points in seven straight games that Jeremiah Masoli has started, and since conference play has begun they have just mowed through top conference opponents (dropping #6 Cal by 38 and #5 USC by 27).

I expect a much more competitive game than last year, but can’t find enough of an edge for the Beavers to overrule the fact that the game is in Autzen.

Prediction: Oregon 48 – Oregon State 42

Oregon State Beavers 8-3 Overall (6-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 42 – Washington State 10

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Full disclosure, I didn’t get a chance to see Oregon State cruise to victory against WSU, but is a recap really necessary? I mean, Wazzu attracted a grand total of 16,167 fans to Martin Stadium and I would venture a guess that many of them were wearing black and orange.

The Cougars just aren’t a great measuring stick for any other Pac-10 program this season, so I find it pointless to review the predictably lopsided statistics from Saturday’s game. Instead of going over how great Canfield and ‘Quizz played or how easily Mark Banker’s defense seemed to handle the Cougs, let’s instead talk about two things that are currently on my mind regarding this OSU program:

1. Mike Riley is my favorite coach in the Pac-10 and has been for a while now. He is a true class act who maximizes the ability of his players and seems to embrace the overachieving role. With Saturday’s win at WSU, Riley moved into second place on OSU’s coaching record chart (64), and he deserves every bit of success that he has earned in Corvallis. I fully expect him to retire as the Beavers all time winningest coach (the mark is 74 wins).

2. Barring a freak injury in practice, OSU will have everyone healthy and ready to go for the War for the Roses (Brennan Olander may be the only exception). Beating WSU was a foregone conclusion, but leaving Pullman without major injury concerns was the real victory.

Now the stage is set for arguably the most epic Civil War of all time (that’s right, even more epic than the one from 1861). Will a healthy ‘Quizz be the difference maker that was missing from last year’s meltdown? Can QB Sean Canfield continue his dream season by leading the Beavs to a win at Autzen (and in the process wrap up Pac-10 QB of the year)? Can Mark Banker’s defense hold up against the Ducks powerful misdirection spread attack?

I sure as heck don’t know the answer to any of these questions, but it will be a lot of fun to watch them get answered on December 3rd.

Oregon State Beavers (7-3) vs. Washington State Cougars (1-9)
Saturday, November 21, 2:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -31.0

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

Oregon State could be one win away from a Civil War for the roses… a Ducks win that is. With all due respect to Washington State, Beaver fans should pay more attention to the game in Tucson than the massacre that will surely take place in Pullman. OSU is playing their absolute best football of the 209 season right now, while the Cougars are getting worse by the week. Even if an expected snowstorm rolls through Martin Stadium, I just don’t see WSU staying within five touchdowns of OSU.

I am most interested to see how long Mike Riley keeps the first team in on Saturday (particularly the offensive unit). I would really hate to see ‘Quizz miss another Civil War with Rose Bowl implications because of an unnecessary injury, but I know that Beaver fans want to see him pile up enough yards against the Cougs to keep him in the Pac-10 Player of the Year race.

I expect to see OSU pounce on the Cougars from the opening kickoff, and QB Sean Canfield should have a field day against the nation’s 3rd worst pass defense. In the running game, I think this is the perfect time to increase the roles of RB Ryan McCants and Jovan Stevenson. It really wont matter who is in the backfield for OSU, as the Cougs D-line has been decimated by injuries and an offensive lineman (Michael Pfeiff) will now man one of the defensive tackle spots for the game.

Bottom line; Oregon State can choose its score in this one, and I can only hope that both teams come out of the game injury free (as Wazzu still has an Apple Cup to defend).

Prediction: Oregon State 48 – Washington State 10

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Gabe Miller – Miller and fellow defensive end Matt LaGrone have really emerged in the last few weeks, and the sacks are finally coming for this OSU defense.

Washington State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Jeffrey Solomon – Solomon played well against UCLA, and will have a chance to build on that performance this week..

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Plenty of fans around the Pac-10 will be rooting for the Washington State Cougars to pull off the upset of the year in college football; it sure would open up a whole lot of Rose Bowl scenarios.

Sadly, it is difficult to even entertain the the notion of this one being competitive. With the way these two teams are playing right now, you could argue that Oregon State could compete with just about any team in the country; and you’d be hard-pressed to find a dozen teams that Washington State would have a great chance of beating.

Unless Oregon State inexplicably sleepwalks through the entire game and Washington State plays the game of their life, the Beavers should have this one locked up well before the second quarter comes to a close.

Full speed ahead to the end of the season. Oregon State has a Civil War for the ages coming up, and Washington State will get one last chance at a second win (and oh what a win it would be) in the Apple Cup. If this were a video game, both sides would likely just “SIM” this one to get to the good stuff; but alas, let’s get it over with.

Prediction: Oregon State 41 – Washington State 9

Oregon State Beavers 7-3 Overall (5-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 48  – Washington 21

Next Week’s Opponent: @Washington State

Beaver fans, you may have to temporarily put aside your hatred for the Ducks in order to embrace a potential Civil War for the ages. If Oregon beats Arizona, the stage will essentially be set (sorry Wazzu). In fact, an Oregon win in Tucson would give OSU a better chance to control its own destiny considering the fact that UA beat the Beavers earlier this season. If Oregon beats UA, and OSU beats UO, the Beavers will hold the tiebreaker over the Ducks and Stanford (assuming the Cardinal win out). So for one week, cheering for the enemy is acceptable.

As for Saturday’s win over Washington, that was exactly the kind of performance Oregon State needed at this point in the season. Mike Riley’s club is absolutely rolling, and I have a hard time believing many teams in America could beat OSU right now. I remember telling a friend of mine early in the season “How good would Oregon State be if they had more than just the Rodgers brothers on offense?” Well, I got my answer in these last few games. As good as Oregon and Stanford have been offensively, I don’t think OSU is far behind. ‘Quizz and James have been great, but I don’t need to talk about them.

Instead let’s talk about the absolute brilliance of QB Sean Canfield. The senior could very well be the best QB in the Pac-10, and he turned in an especially impressive performance against the Dawgs (21/29 185 yards 4 TDs 0 INTs). Canfield hit seven different receivers against UW, and I continue to be amazed at the chemistry that he has developed with TE Joe Halahuni (who made only two catches but both were TDs).

Defensively, the Beavers limited a good Washington offense to only 274 total yards. Statistically, QB Jake Locker had a solid day (14/23 153 yards 3 TDs 1 INT) but he was pressured all game and sacked four times. Mark Banker’s D has steadily improved throughout the year, and the unit deserves a lot of credit for never losing confidence.

Up next for OSU are those friendly Cougars. I recommend playing ‘Quizz, James, Canfield and the first team as little as possible because a serious injury is not worth risking. Assuming all goes well in Pullman, a dream Civil War could follow.

Oregon State Beavers 6-3 Overall (4-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 31 – Cal 14

Next Week’s Opponent: Washington

The horrifying visual of Jahvid Best landing hard on his upper back was all that any of us could think of during and after the game against the Cal Bears last Saturday; injuries like that transcend the action on the field. Fortunately, it appears that Jahvid Best will be okay, and suffered from a concussion; he has movement in all of extremities.

While the horrific injury may have taken our attention away from the game, the game did still go on; and it was one that the Beavers completely dominated.

‘Quizz Rodgers had a rare quiet day, rushing for only 67 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries (and hauling in nine catches for 30 yards), but Sean Canfield (29/39, 342 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and his favorite targets took care of the rest. James Rodgers (six catches, 80 yards and a TD) and Damola Adeniji (five catches, 87 yards) both had huge days, but breakout star tight end Joe Halahuni led the way with six catches for 128 yards. Jordan Bishop also added a touchdown on his sole reception.

Defensively, the Beavers had their best day of the season by far, allowing only 239 yards of total offense, including a minuscule 39 yards on the ground. The Bears obviously needed to take to the air more often in the second half down 24-7, but even before they abandoned the run, they’d never really been able to establish it in the first place (Best had 29 yards on 9 carries before leaving the game).

And here we are again; the Beavers are in the midst of their annual late season run. Sean Canfield has been nothing short of spectacular this season, and with both him and ‘Quizz Rodgers playing at All-Pac-10 levels, this offense is nearly impossible to stop. The Beavers now find themselves with an outside-chance at a Rose Bowl bid; as if they needed more motivation for the showdown @Oregon.

But no looking ahead; first, take care of Washington.

Oregon State Beavers 5-3 Overall (3-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 26 – UCLA 19

Next Week’s Opponent: @Cal

This just in; this Jacquizz Rodgers guy is really, really good!

Well, I guess that isn’t “just in”. It’s been pretty clear since day one. But for anyone who needed yet another reminder, ‘Quizz went ahead and put on a show last week. Rodgers racked up 112 yards on 24 carries and 92 yards on seven catches; 204 yards on 31 touches, which is pretty damn good. But that wasn’t all; he also added a 14-yard touchdown pass.

The touchdown pass was the only passing touchdown of the game, but Sean Canfield still had another excellent game, completing 74% of his passes (25/34) for 305 yards. James Rodgers was on the receiving end of 106 of those yards (on 10 catches), and also rushed for 28 yards and a touchdown. Justin Kahut rounded out the scoring with four field goals.

With a 16-0 lead at the half and a 16-3 lead at the end of the third quarter, the Beavers looked to be on their way to a comfortable win, but the wheels fell off defensively in the fourth quarter. After taking the 19-3 lead, UCLA scored two TDs (and converted on both 2-point conversions) to tie the game, but the Beavers avoided overtime with a masterful 7-play 70 yard touchdown drive that took only 01:16 to produce.

While there isn’t too much to complain about in picking up the win, there were a few red flags raised in this one. For one, Oregon State’s inability to finish drives with seven; don’t want to complain too much about scoring drives in any form, but the Beavers had five drives end in field goal attempts (one missed) to only two touchdown drives. Secondly, the defense has been a concern this year, and letting the Bruins get back into the game could have come back to bite them.

If the Beavers can do a better job finishing their drives and putting together a strong defensive effort for all four quarters, they’ll have a great shot at upsetting the Cal Bears next Saturday.

UCLA Bruins (3-4) vs. Oregon State Beavers (4-3)
Saturday, October 31, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -9.5

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

Both Oregon State and UCLA suffered disappointing losses last week, but for far different reasons. The Beavers gave the Trojans everything they wanted plus some (OSU outgained ‘SC 482-429 yards), and a special teams breakdown may have been the only thing preventing OSU from a 3-1 record in the Pac-10. Meanwhile, UCLA found a way to lose to UA despite generating five turnovers, as the Bruins offense looked hopelessly lost.

It’s hard to envision a UCLA win here, especially with the way OSU’s Sean Canfield is playing (1,734 yards 11 TDs, 4 INTS, 68.2 % completions). Obviously, we know the Rodgers brothers will always get their yards, but when Canfield is throwing well the Beavers can pile up points on anyone. I have been most impressed by the offensive balance from Mike Riley’s team in the last few games, as players like WR Damola Adeniji, and TE Joe Halahuni have given the offense another dimension.

A strong argument could be made that RB ‘Quizz Rodgers deserves to go to New York for the Heisman Presentation. He has accounted for 1,089 total yards (810 rushing) and 15 TDs, including a 113 yard, 1 TD day against a Trojans D that ranks fifth nationally against the run. While UCLA features a stout front seven led by DT Brain Price, I don’t think any defense can stop ‘Quizz right now.

For UCLA, the offense has to find an identity this week. As strong as Oregon State has looked on offense, the defense has proven to be vulnerable (particularly against the pass). I am interested to see what Rick Neuheisel does at the QB position if Kevin Prince struggles early. Will we see QB Richard Brehaut take meaningful snaps in Corvallis? RB Jonathan Franklin has proven to be a reliable playmaker, but the overall lack of explosion in Norm Chow’s offense is very disconcerting.

I still have great respect for the UCLA defense, but until the offense can show some signs of life, the losing skid will continue. I look for Oregon State to come away with a workmanlike victory at Reser Stadium.

Prediction: Oregon State 31 – UCLA 20

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: S Rahim Moore – The highly-instinctive Moore has been a bright spot for the Bruins all season, and he enters Saturday’s game looking to add to his NCAA-best seven interceptions.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Casey Kjos – Kjos only has six catches on the year, but he showed great route-running ability last week against USC and I believe he will contribute more and more as the season progresses.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

After yet another respectable game last week (albeit in a losing effort), Oregon State has firmly placed themselves in that “best of the rest” category with Arizona behind Oregon and USC. UCLA on the other hand looks completely lost; even with all of the turnovers last week, the offense never gave the team a chance to win.

As brilliantly as Sean Canfield has been playing, the real story in this one just might be UCLA’s inability to stop the run. Since conference play has started, UCLA has given up over 200 yards rushing in three of the four games they have played, with their “best” effort coming against Stanford where they gave up 174 yards rushing and Toby Gerhart had 134 yards and three touchdowns.

Since that Stanford game, UCLA has given up 719 rushing yards, good for just under 240/game. Going up against one of the premiere backs in the entire country in Jacquizz Rodgers, do you really expect things to get better this week?

Even if the Bruins can find some answers on offense against a less-than-stellar Beavers defense, I can’t see them finding any way to keep up with this offense, which has been outstanding in conference play and should continue to be this week. With two potentially winnable games at home against Washington and ASU as well as a road game against Washington State coming up, UCLA’s bowl dreams aren’t completely shattered just yet; but I don’t think the game in Corvallis is going to help any.

Prediction: Oregon State 34 – UCLA 17

Oregon State Beavers 4-3 Overall (2-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: USC 42 – Oregon State 36

Next Week’s Opponent: UCLA

While it’s always disappointing to come out of a hard fought game with a loss, the Beavers have a lot to be happy about, especially on offense. Oregon State proved once again this week that they can compete with anyone, and they should have a lot of say in how the conference ends up shaping up down the stretch.

482 yards and 36 points is a heck of an output against one of the nation’s best defenses; especially on their home turf. Sean Canfield had another fantastic day, going 30/43 for 329 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He spread the ball out to eight different receivers, including the day’s biggest surprise, TE Joe Halahuni who had a career day with nine catches and 127 yards. Damola Adeniji had another nice day with 81 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions, and James Rodgers caught a TD pass as well.

Jacquizz Rodgers knew he’d be game-planned for a lot more than he was last time around, but it didn’t seem to bother him; he rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries for a TD and caught for another one. ‘Quizz continues to quietly keep his name in the dark horse Heisman candidate conversation; in a year where they seemingly can’t give the trophy away, a few more big performances could earn some support in Rodgers’ corner.

The defensive side of the ball was not so exciting. Is it time to push the panic button yet? Oregon State’s defensive unit is usually its strength, but that just hasn’t been the case this season. The Beavers haven’t given up less than 375 total yards in a game since UNLV (and have given up over 400 in three of the five), and haven’t given up less than 200 passing yards in any game at all this season.

After the great success USC had running the ball (227 yards), you have to wonder how much of the Beavers’ success against the run this year has simply been due to the fact that opponents have moved the ball so easily through the air. I’d be willing to give the defense a pass due to the overwhelming talent this USC team possesses, but it has been a problem all year; and the unit was another stop or two away from shocking the world for the third time in four years.

Oregon State possesses the offensive firepower to shootout with anyone remaining on their schedule, especially with Canfield playing so well and opening up the Rodgers brothers by finding other receivers. That said, the team might face a fate similar to this week’s in their matchups @Cal and @Oregon if the defense doesn’t step it up.

Oregon State Beavers (4-2) vs. USC Trojans (5-1)
Saturday, October 24, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -21.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

Might USC overlook this game against Oregon State given the fact that it’s sandwiched between the dramatic win in South Bend and the potential Halloween showdown in Eugene next week?

I wouldn’t count on it.

The Trojans are well aware of what the Beavers can do, especially when #1 has the ball. Obviously, Jacquizz Rodgers had his coming out party on national television last season when he ripped through a star-studded ‘SC defense. The question is, can he do it again? So far this season ‘Quizz has been spectacular, ranking second in Pac-10 with 697 rushing yards and second nationally with 13 TDs. He will certainly have to be at his best this Saturday, as the ‘SC defense ranks fourth nationally against the run. QB Sean Canfield must play mistake free, while continuing to involve receivers other than James Rodgers in the passing game (as he has done recently with Adeniji).

For USC, the gameplan should be rather simple in this one: throw the ball. While Oregon State has been very solid against the run (18th nationally), the Beavers have been atrocious against the pass (114th nationally). QB Matt Barkley has looked better every week, and I expect to see him attack OSU through the air early and often.

If the Trojans were traveling to Reser Stadium I would strongly consider picking the upset here, especially considering the bye week that Mike Riley had to prepare his team. But this series hasn’t been too exciting at the Coliseum (last OSU win was in 1960), and while I expect a competitive game, ‘SC should pull away in the fourth.

Prediction: USC 35 – Oregon State 20

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: The Whole O-Line - In last season’s meeting with USC, the OSU o-line was tremendous all night. The unit must play at a similar level again Saturday in order to give ‘Quizz a chance to hit a few big plays.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Chris Galippo - Galippo has been solid as a rock all season, and he will be a key to keeping ‘Quizz in check.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

Man, I owe Beavers fans an apology. Not that you guys care all that much I’m sure about how a random Pac-10 blogger picks for or against your team (especially when they keep making a fool out of him), but I have been downright brutal to Oregon State. In fact, I haven’t picked the Beavers since week one!

After two straight wins over solid opponents, I’m sold on Oregon State; I won’t be underrating them anymore. But with all of that in mind, I have to pick against them this week.

We all remember what happened the last time Jacquizz Rodgers faced the USC Trojans. Rodgers led the way to a stunning upset in 2008, the second time in three years that the Beavers upset USC. The Rodgers brothers are just as dangerous as they were the last time these teams met, and the way Sean Canfield is playing, the passing game could even be better.

I just don’t see USC letting this one get away, though. They’ve already had their gut-check this season in Washington, and there are plenty of players left on this team that still feel the burn from last season. The revenge factor aside, there is also simply the respect factor here; Oregon State has earned it against USC.

Matt Barkley and the offense appear to be clicking, and potentially having Ronald Johnson back up to game speed could help. Defensively, ‘Quizz won’t be an unknown true freshman this time around.

By the numbers, USC matches up well on both sides of the ball here; but this feels like the type of game that you need to throw the numbers out on. Oregon State went into Arizona State’s house and ran up a big lead early on their excellent defense, so I’m not going to assume USC’s defense is going to completely shut down the Beavers. I do feel, however, that they will do enough to pick up the win. (Or, OSU will burn both Sam and me for the third straight time.)

Prediction: USC 31 – Oregon State 17