Arizona Wildcats (7-4) vs. USC Trojans (8-3)
Saturday, December 5, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -7.0

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

If Oregon is able to beat Oregon State in the War for the Roses, the winner of this Saturday’s game between USC and UA will likely head to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. Each team could finish as high as second in the conference standings or as low as sixth. Although the Trojans haven’t lost to Arizona in nine years, the series has been closely contested in recent years (last two meetings have been decided by a touchdown).

I like USC in this game for two main reasons. First, the Trojans can still finish with 10 wins this season and I believe that would provide the program with positive momentum heading into the off-season. After last week’s ending against UCLA, ‘SC seems to have found an emotional spark, and I’m sure Pete Carroll will have his team ready for the season finale. Second, the ‘Cats will be without RB Nic Grigsby for yet another game. Last week against Arizona State, it was clear that the ‘Cats missed their home run threat, and the offense just isn’t the same without him.

The Trojans defense is starting to make plays again, and ‘Zona QB Nick Foles will be less than 100%. I expect ‘SC to contain RB Keola Antolin, Greg Nwoko and the rest of the ‘Cats running attack, which should allow the Trojans D to pin its ears back and attack Foles.

The normally stout UA defense has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight games, and I expect RB Joe McKnight to make it four. Once McKnight gets going, Matt Barkley, Damian Williams and the ‘SC passing attack should have plenty of opportunities.

Arizona has led in the fourth quarter of every conference game this season, and I have no doubt Mike Stoops’ club will keep this one close. But in the end, I expect USC to pull away late for another one score victory over the ‘Cats.

Prediction: USC 31 – Arizona 24

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Devin Ross - Ross is a shutdown corner capable of eliminating an opposition’s feature receiver. Damian Williams will be his biggest test of the season.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Anthony McCoy - McCoy figures to be closer to 100%, and I expect him to have a big day against an undersized UA defense.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

Gone is USC’s aura of invincibility, and in its place is a lack of certainty on both sides of the ball.

The defense had an outstanding game against the Bruins, but than again, UCLA doesn’t have a particularly high-powered offense. When going up against the Pac-10’s three top offenses in total yards in Stanford, Oregon State, and Oregon, USC has given up 55, 36, and 47 points, respectively.

Arizona ranks fourth in the conference in total yards.

Can USC’s defense build on the momentum of the UCLA game, or will it fall back into giving up points to another high-powered attack? Despite Arizona’s solid defense and USC’s less-than-stellar offense, I think the Trojans have gotten healthy enough on offense to put up some points in this one; but if the game turns into a shootout, I don’t love USC’s chances.

I don’t think it will turn into a shootout, though. I get the feeling that USC will be the more focused team in this one playing their third straight home game and potentially for a Holiday Bowl berth. Arizona, meanwhile, is coming off of the intense low of losing to the Ducks at home to end their chance at a Rose Bowl to the intense high of beating hated rival ASU in the closing seconds. I just don’t know how much more they have to give in this regular season, and they’ll nead to be at their best to beat USC at the Coliseum, even if this is an off year for the Men of Troy.

Prediction: USC 28 – Arizona 21

Washington State Cougars (1-7) vs. Arizona Wildcats (5-2)
Saturday, November 7, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Arizona -31.0

Sam’s Take (39 – 15):

Think Arizona used their bye last week to prepare for Wazzu or get an early start on some of the conference powers coming up on the schedule (@Cal, Ore, @ASU, @USC)?

With all due respect to the Cougars, U of A controls its own destiny in the Rose Bowl race (a bowl the ‘Cats have never been to) so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them peeking ahead a little bit. The Wildcats have two goals this week: 1.) Win the game 2.) Come out of the win with no new injuries. Running backs Nic Grigsby and Greg Nwoko already have injury concerns, so if this is a lopsided game by the middle of the second half (which it almost certainly will be) the UA coaches must not risk the health of key contributors.

In my opinion Arizona is the second best offense that WSU has faced this season (behind Oregon and ahead of USC and Notre Dame). The Cougars are simply not equipped to handle Sonny Dykes quick screen game, and I expect QB Nick Foles to have a huge game. Looking for a bright side to all of this Cougar fans? QB Jeff Tuel is the real deal, and he’s maturing with each new road trip. I expect the stingy ‘Cats D to be all over him in Tucson, but these humbling experiences WILL pay off for Tuel in a couple of years.

Soon we will learn just how good Mike Stoops football team really is, but nothing new will be disclosed to us this week. I expect a good old fashion blowout at the Old Pueblo.

Prediction: Arizona 48 – Washington State 17

Washington State Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Dwight Tardy – Tardy looked good in his limited carries against the Irish, and the Cougs would love to run the ball in order to keep the high-powered Wildcats offense off the field.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Nick Booth – With Grigsby and Nwoko likely out, Keola Antolin and Booth will get the carries against WSU. The UA coaches are excited about what the 6-2 220 pound Booth can bring to the running game.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

The recap to most of Washington State’s games this season have been pretty similar; opponent gets out to a huge early lead and then calls off the dogs. I expect the same this week, even if Arizona does get caught looking ahead to next week, the talent discrepancy is just to large for the Cougars to make up here, especially on the road.

For Arizona, the focus here is to stay healthy, but to also try to execute at a high level, at least while the starters are still in. If they write this game off and play sloppy, they’ll still come away with the win, but it might leave a bad taste in their mouth heading into the Cal game, which they really can’t afford to have carry over.

The Cougars want to continue playing hard for all four quarters and learning good habits. Two of their remaining three games come against the current 8th and 9th teams in the conference (UCLA and @Washington), so pulling one more upset out of their hat this season isn’t completely out of the question; but it looks to be this week.

Prediction: Arizona 41 – Washington State 16

Arizona Wildcats 5-2 Overall (3-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 27 – UCLA 13

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

‘Zona fans, I think this team has turned the corner. In previous seasons, the ‘Cats would not have been able to overcome a five-turnover day, but somehow this team found a way to comfortably persevere. Certainly the putrid Bruins offense had a lot to do with the outcome of Saturday’s game, but I also credit Mark Stoops defense for laying the hammer on UCLA’s pair of signal-calling Kevins.

Obviously QB Nick Foles had a peculiar (and I dare say uncharacteristic) day despite this being only his fourth start (22/34 247 yards 2 TDs, 3 INTs). We have come to expect near perfection from the sophomore, and on Saturday we didn’t get it. Still, even on an off night, Foles continued to flash his big arm, especially on a beautifully thrown TD to WR Juron Criner late in the first quarter.

Is there an offensive coordinator in the Pac-10 that is better than Sonny Dykes right now? I am struggling to find one. With RB Nic Grigsby and RB Greg Nwoko battling injuries, Dykes was able to manufacture rushing production by utilizing receiver reverses and creative misdirection, as well as conventional run plays with RB Keola Antolin.

Amazingly, nine different ball carriers combined to rush for over 200 yards, including 77 yards from Antolin and 45 from WR Delashaun Dean. This ‘Cats offense was sloppy against UCLA, but it still managed to put up 456 yards of offense because of the tremendous balance.

As mentioned earlier, the defense played inspired football, holding UCLA to 211 total yards and essentially giving up no points (UCLA had one defensive TD, and all 13 points came off of UA turnovers). If the D can build off of this performance, Arizona will have a chance to win every game on the remaining schedule.

‘Zona gets a much-needed bye this week, which should give the ailing Wildcats a chance to get healthy. UA plays Washington State next, and it is critical that the team comes out of that game as injury-free as possible, because after the Cougars a gauntlet awaits (@Cal, Oregon, @ASU, @USC).

UCLA Bruins (3-3) vs. Arizona Wildcats (4-2)
Saturday, October 24, 3:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Arizona -7.5

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

UCLA and Arizona are heading in opposite directions right now. The Bruins have looked lost as of late, and last week’s beatdown at the hands of Cal was especially disheartening. Meanwhile, Arizona is quietly putting together the best offense in the Pac-10, led by a rising star in QB Nick Foles.

Arizona has been a part of two thrillers in a row, losing a heartbreaker in Seattle and then mounting an incredibly exciting comeback against Stanford. This week, I think Mike Stoops will be able to breathe a little easier but this game is by no means a lock.

A strong argument could be made that QB Nick Foles is the best signal caller in the Pac-10, as his numbers have been nothing short of remarkable (1,152 yards passing 9 TDs 2 INTs, 73.9% completions on the season). The rise of Foles has now made the ‘Cats as balanced as any offense in college football right now, as the running game is still extremely potent with three all-conference caliber performers in the backfield. Nic Grisby appears to be fully healthy, so the UCLA defense will have its hands full this Saturday.

For UCLA, there is some reason to believe the offense can come through this week. Schematically, Norm Chow does a lot of the same things as Stanford, particularly in his use of tight ends and fullbacks. Jim Harbaugh’s club exploited a talented UA secondary last week, so the blueprint is there for Chow to take advantage of. If QB Kevin Prince can make good decisions, UCLA will have a puncher’s chance. I would also like to see RB Jonathan Franklin get the ball more this week, as he is the most explosive threat right now for the Bruins.

As good as CB Alterraun Verner and S Rahim Moore are, the other half of the UCLA secondary could be in for a long day against a dynamic UA passing attack. I believe the ‘Cats offense is going to be a little bit too versatile for UCLA’s D this week, and that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Arizona 35 – UCLA 27

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Logan Paulsen – Paulsen’s play was a bright spot from the Cal game and I think he is the perfect mismatch option for Prince because of his big frame and deceptive speed.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Juron Criner – Any one of six UA receivers could be the player to keep an eye on this week, but Criner seems to be surging right now.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

Looking ahead to this game a few weeks ago, it was looking like a clash between UCLA’s stingy defense and Arizona’s high powered offense. Arizona has kept up their end of the deal, slashing through conference opponents on offense ever since Nick Foles has taken over at QB; but what happened to UCLA’s defense?

The Oregon game was not the defense’s fault, considering the fact that they only gave up one offensive touchdown in that one. But that had a lot to do with Nate Costa’s ineffectiveness; the running defense has been awful for three straight games, giving up a woeful 228 YPG since conference play has started. The Cal game was a complete disaster defensively as the Bears just ripped off big play after big play in routing the Bruins at home.

After seeing what I saw last week, I just don’t believe that UCLA is going to magically re-find themselves on defense on the road against one of the conference’s most explosive offenses. The Bruins might also see a healthy dose of Nic Grigsby, Greg Nwoko, and Keola Antolin if they can’t do anything to prove they can stop the run. And if the rushing attack establishes itself and sets up this passing game… oh my.

Offensively, the Bruins took some nice strides last week; and the Wildcats defense has been less than stellar of late. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UCLA put some points up this week; but I don’t see them slowing down Arizona’s attack, and they won’t be able to keep up with it.

Prediction: Arizona 34 – UCLA 20

Arizona Wildcats 4-2 Overall (2-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 43 – Stanford 38

Next Week’s Opponent: UCLA

Enough offense for you?

Despite giving up over 30 points for the third straight game, Saturday’s shootout victory over Stanford shot Arizona into the BCS top 25 (#22). With quality in-conference wins over Stanford and Oregon State as well as only two losses (the heart breaker in Washington and to undefeated Iowa), the respect seems justified. Speaking of that Iowa game, how badly do you want to see a do-over with Nick Foles as the starter?

Since Foles has taken over as the starter, the Wildcats have scored 113 points and have amassed 1402 yards of total
offense; good for 37.7 points and 467.33 yards per game.

Hard to find anything about the offense not to love in Saturday’s game. Nick Foles had an unbelievable day, throwing for 415 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Juron Criner had 12 catches for 152 yards, Terrell Turner had nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, and David Douglas had 92 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. David Roberts and Keola Antolin both snagged five catches each as well.

Arizona didn’t run often, but when they did, good things happened. Greg Nwoko rushed three times for 45 yards, capped off by a 43-yard touchdown run in the 4th quarter, and Nic Grigsby rushed seven times for 89 yards, also capped off by a huge (57-yard) touchdown in the 4th.

On defense, things were quite different. The defense gave up a miserable 584 total yards, including 434 passing yards. They also gave up 123 yards and two touchdowns to Gerhart on the ground before his injury. Bright spots include getting the stop on 4th and 1 late in the game (you have to be thrilled as a Wildcats fan that Gerhart wasn’t available), and of course the 79-yard pick-6 by Robert Golden to put Arizona on the board early in the 1st quarter.

But for a team that can usually rely on its speedy defense, this is the second time in three games that they’ve been torched for over 400 total yards (407 against Oregon State). Yes, they ended up winning both of those games; but the difference between a good season and a fantastic one will be the defense, because the offense is clearly clicking.

The Wildcats will look to keep the good times rolling this week at home against UCLA.

Arizona Wildcats 4-2 Overall (2-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Washington 36 – Arizona 33

Next Week’s Opponent: Stanford

How did this happen? I still can’t figure out how the Wildcats lost this game. Sure, Mason Foster’s game-changing interception return for a TD may actually have been an incomplete pass (as some angles on replay have shown), but there is no excuse for blowing a 12-point lead with 4:16 left in the 4th quarter.

The final stats from Saturday’s game are painfully in favor of the ‘Cats (UA total yards: 461, UW total yards: 256). But in the end, Sonny Dykes went to the bubble screen play one time too many, and now UA will have to feel the sting of losing yet another winnable game (similar to the Stanford and New Mexico games of the previous two seasons).

As deflating as this loss is for the psyche of the team, there were also obvious positives. QB Nick Foles was tremendous even with the two interceptions (39/53 384 yards 1 TD, 2 INTs). He is clearly the right choice at QB for this offense, as he delivered the ball on time and with zip all night. For the second game in a row, Foles involved a ton of receivers in the offense (nine different players had at least a catch), and David Roberts is really starting to emerge as a big time playmaker.

I was very impressed with the route running of the UA wideouts, particularly Roberts and Terrell Turner. Even without Rob Gronkowski, this receiving unit is capable of lighting up any secondary because of the speed with which the receivers are getting off at the line of scrimmage. I expect big things from the UA passing game as the season progresses.

The running game should have made this offense dangerously balanced against U-Dub, but somehow,  Grigsby, Nwoko, and the rest of the backs were only able to manage a meager 77 yards on the ground. Sonny Dykes has to be disappointed in that total considering the ‘Cats were leading the conference in rushing heading into the UW game.

Defensively, Arizona played pretty well but still managed to give up a ton of points. Jake Locker only passed for 140 yards, but he tossed three TDs, and ran for a huge 56-yard TD on his way to 92 yards rushing. I do not doubt the talent or speed of the Wildcats D, but sometimes that isn’t enough. This unit has to get mentally tougher and prevent the big play.

Next up for UA is a revenge game with Stanford. The ‘Cats recent history with the Cardinal can only be described as painful, making this Saturday’s game at the Old Pueblo a virtual must win.

Arizona Wildcats 3-1 Overall (1-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 37 – Oregon State 32

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

It’s safe to say that Sonny Dykes “AirZona” offense is back in a big way. The quarterback switch at UA couldn’t have worked any better in Corvallis, as Nick Foles was tremendous (25-34 254 yards, 3 TDs 0 INTs). Foles demonstrated Tuitama-like command of the offense, hitting 10 different receivers throughout the day.

Even with Nic Grigsby sidelined for most of the game and Keola Antolin battling injury as well, the ‘Cats offense found a way to move the ball. Third-string tailback Greg Nwoko was spectacular as a runner (9 carries for 44 yards), and receiver (4 rec. 76 yards).

Foles has re-energized the talented receiving corps, as Delashaun Dean, Terrell Turner, David Roberts and Juron Criner were all able to make plays in the passing attack Saturday.

While the UA defense gave up plenty of yards (407), the secondary still managed to come up with a couple of big interceptions. Trevin Wade continues to be a dangerous playmaker at CB (picked Canfield off in 3rd Qtr), and Devin Ross also had a big INT in the final minutes of the game.

A special kudos goes to punter Keenyn Crier. Crier is one of the best punters in America, and he proved it on numerous occasions against the Beavers. In the fourth quarter alone, Crier was able to pin OSU inside the five-yard line three times (resulting in a TD, INT, and safety for UA). A strong argument could be made that his punting won the game for the Wildcats.

It appears that Grigsby and Antolin will be healthy for the game against Washington, which should allow Dykes to employ an even more potent (and balanced) attack.

With the QB controversy now resolved, the ‘Cats seem to have found their offensive identity. If Nick Foles can build on his solid debut, Arizona will be firmly in the conference title race all season.

Is it possible for a tailback to rush for a “quiet” 1,153 yards and 13 touchdowns? Junior Nic Grigsby did just that in 2008. While other Pac-10 runners got all the accolades, the nimble Grigsby finished last season as the conference’s 4th leading rusher. His 1,153 yards place him 9th in school history for yards in a season. His 13 rushing touchdowns are 3rd in school history for a single-season. The 5-10, 190 pound speedster averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2008 and scored at least one TD in 10 of his 13 games played.

Nic Grigsby celebrates a trip to the endzone

Grigsby suffered from fumbling issues at times last season but he showed improvement towards the end of 2008. He has tremendous vision and the ability to hit the hole with great acceleration. Grigsby seems to be at full speed right when he receives the handoff. He is an undersized back, but can be very effective as long as he isn’t asked to carry the ball 25+ times a game. Grigsby will enter fall as the number one tailback.

Joining Grigsby in the Wildcats backfield is sensational sophomore Keola Antolin. The 5-8 186 pound Las Vegas native will look to build on a tremendous freshman campaign. Last season, Antolin rushed for 525 yards and 10 scores in a backup role. His 10 TD’s are a school-record for a freshman tailback in a single-season.

Antolin’s breakout performance may never have happened if not for Grigsby’s fumbling problems. After Grigsby was pulled against Cal, Antolin electrified the Wildcat faithful with 149 yards rushing and 3 TD’s. He averaged 7.1 yards per carry that day, and Arizona won the game easily. From that point on, Grigsby and Antolin shared carries.

Against Oregon, Antolin tied a school record with 4 rushing TD’s in a game. He was named Pac-10 Player of the Week twice in 2008. Antolin also returned kicks, averaging 21.5 yards per return and may factor into special teams again this season.

Like Grigsby, Antolin is undersized, but he uses his compact build to hide between his offensive-line before darting through an opening. He is a shifty runner that has multiple gears. He is more quick than fast, but is still a threat to score at any time. The combination of Grigsby and Antolin proved to be successful last season, and should be again in 2009.

The Wildcats talent at running back does not end with Grigsby and Antolin. The coaching staff is excited about one back in particular who could bring an element to the running game that Sonny Dykes offense has been missing. Redshirt freshman Greg Nwoko is a big, physical bruiser that fits goal-line situations perfectly.

At 6-2 220 pounds, he gives Arizona a power running game that is otherwise unachievable. Grigsby and Antolin are limited in short yardage situations. With Nwoko in the mix, Arizona has a back for every down and distance. The Pflugerville, Texas native looked very impressive in spring drills and will have an opportunity to make a big impact for Mike Stoops’ club in 2009.

One other name to watch for is true freshman RB Daniel Jenkins. Jenkins was one of the Wildcats best recruits for 2009 and may be the fastest running back on the team. At 5-9, 175, he is cut out of the Grigsby mold, and possesses excellent open-field skills. The Rancho Verde, CA product was rated as a 4 star all-purpose back by Rivals.com. He may get a look as a return man as well.

Other running backs that will provide depth in 2009 are true freshman Kylan Butler and senior Nick Booth.

My Take

Running back is a big strength for the Arizona offense in 2009. Sonny Dykes may want to throw it more when a quarterback emerges, but for now, the Wildcats have a couple of stud runners that deserve the ball. With the offensive line in pretty good shape, Grigsby and Antolin should match last year’s production.

Im looking for Nwoko to be used a lot in short distance situations. In the past, TE Rob Gronkowski had to come up with tons of 3rd down catches to keep drives alive. Now, Nwoko gives the ‘Cats a chance to convert 3rd downs on the ground.

Overall, look for the Wildcats backfield to be one of the most productive units in the conference.