USC Trojans (6-2) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-4)
Saturday, November 7, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -10.0

Sam’s Take (39 – 15):

The Trojans are coming off the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era, and that probably doesn’t bode well for ASU. Remember, this ‘SC program has not lost a game in the month of November since Carroll’s arrival.

Still, it’s difficult to know for sure how the Trojans dreadful performance in Eugene will affect the team moving forward. While the season may seem lost, a BCS Bowl is still likely if ‘SC wins out, so we will find out a lot about this team’s resiliency in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils may need to pull off the upset Saturday in order to keep their bowl hopes alive (remaining schedule includes @Ore, @UCLA, UA).

QB Matt Barkley really can’t be faulted for what took place last week, and I expect him to play very well in Tempe. ASU has proven to be rock solid against the run this season (4th nationally), so ‘SC will likely go to the air early with Barkley. The Devils D has developed a reputation for over-pursuing, so Jeremy Bates may also put in extra misdirection plays this week.

Dennis Erickson will once again turn to ASU QB Danny Sullivan, but he also hinted that former ‘SC commit QB Samson Szakacsy will have an expanded role in the offense. RB Dimitri Nance continues to be bothered by a shoulder injury; so true freshman RB Cameron Marshall could be the feature back this week. USC has certainly looked vulnerable on defense in the last few weeks, but the Sun Devils lack the offensive explosion of Notre Dame, OSU, and Oregon.

I expect a very physical game, as both USC and ASU prefer to play that style. But by the second half, the Trojans should pull away en route to another November win.

Prediction: USC 30 – Arizona State 17

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Ronald Johnson - RoJo caught a TD in each of the last two weeks, and I expect him to be heavily featured in the gameplan against ASU.

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Deveron Carr - The Arizona State coaches are reshuffling the Devils secondary after a disappointing outing vs. Cal, and Carr is likely to make his first career start this week.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

For a USC defense that has struggled immensely over the last three weeks, ASU’s manageable offense might be just what the doctor ordered. Since conference play has started, ASU has averaged 20.6 points per game. They will get their share of yards and points, but unlike the last three teams USC has played (with ND’s Jimmy Clausen, OSU’s Jacquizz Rodgers, and Oregon’s LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli), Arizona State doesn’t have any explosiveness in their backfield.

The biggest question mark in this game is simply how will USC react to having just been blown out? For a team that generally likes to have a lot of light-hearted fun during practice and preperation for games, a loss like this could throw things out of balance. If Pete Carroll tries to change too much too fast, it could really affect the team’s psyche. Will be interesting to see how they play this Saturday, especially in the first half.

For ASU, the message has been consistant all year; the defense can only do so much. They’ve been playing at a high level and giving the team a chance to win more often than not, but it just hasn’t been enough as the offense hasn’t been able to capitalize.

I expect similar in this one; ASU holds USC somewhere in the 28-35 range, but the offense continues to struggle.

Prediction: USC 28 – Arizona State 14

Arizona State Sun Devils 4-2 Overall (2-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona State 24 – Washington 17

Next Week’s Opponent: @Stanford

“We were trying to throw a 20-yard comeback to our outside guys and get in field-goal range. We took the tight end and Chris down the seams. I saw him (McGaha) by himself and thought that’s a hell of a play call, Dennis.”- ASU coach Dennis Erickson

The sarcasm in Dennis Erickson’s quote says it all. After all, how did Chris McGaha manage to get 15-20 yards behind the Husky defense? Certainly, Steve Sarksian and Nick Holt will take a lot of heat for the dramatic ending in Tempe, but you have to feel good for embattled quarterback Danny Sullivan. Just a few weeks ago, Sullivan was booed by the Sun Devil faithful as he exited Frank Kush Field after the Oregon State game, but on Saturday night he received thunderous applause for his game-winning 50-yard bomb with 13 seconds left to play.

Will the Devils use this win over the Huskies as a catalyst for a bowl game push? There is still plenty of work to be done, but the Devils appear to be improving each week and that is a very good sign.

The offense is starting to click in Tempe, as ASU racked up 464 yards of offense against the Dawgs. Sullivan played mistake-free, throwing for 263 yards and 1 TD on 21/35 passing. The offensive line continues to get better and better, and it was evident on Saturday as the unit paved the way for 170 yards on the ground while also giving Sullivan more time in the pocket.

Dimitri Nance ran hard on limited carries (13 car. 70 yards) and freshman Cameron Marshall flashed his explosiveness on a 75 yard run. The receivers had a fantastic game, and Kyle Williams even managed to throw a TD to T.J. Simpson (although Williams would later fumble on a sure TD at the goal line).

The defense played with the same fire and intensity that has defined the unit all year, and the night could have been better had it not been for a blown assignment on the first drive of the game (led to a Kearse TD) and the ridiculous penalties throughout the first half (Burfict was responsible for some and the officials were responsible for others). Still, the unit pressured Jake Locker all night and didn’t allow much in the running game.

Now the Devils will try to keep the momentum rolling as they head to Palo Alto for a date with an angry Stanford team. The Cardinal play as physical on offense as ASU does on D, and the battle of #7s (Gerhart vs. Burfict) should be great theater.

Washington Huskies (3-3) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-2)
Saturday, October 17, 7:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Arizona State -6.5

Sam’s Take (28 – 13):

Washington has lost five straight to Arizona State, but I believe the Huskies have a great chance to win in Tempe this Saturday. It will be very interesting to see how Jake Locker and the UW offense perform against an aggressive and violent ASU front seven.

This has the look of a game that will require Locker to utilize his running ability for the second straight week (92 yards rushing vs. UA), because the Devils will likely force him out of the pocket throughout the game.

If there is one area where the ASU defense is vulnerable, it is in the secondary. I am certain Steve Sarkisian realizes this, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him call a few deep passing plays early in order to utilize a gifted (yet strangely inconsistent) UW receiving corps. ASU is not built to play catch up, and a couple of quick scores will put U-Dub in great position to win. Running the ball into the teeth of the Devils D is a bad idea, so utilizing misdirection plays against a defense that often over pursues will also be a key for Washington.

Arizona QB Nick Foles picked apart the Washington defense last week, but Nick Holt’s unit tightened up in the red zone. Danny Sullivan and the ASU offense have shown no potency on offense so far this season, and there is little reason to believe anything will change this week (unless QB Brock Osweiler has an unlikely breakout performance in a reserve role of course). If Holt’s unit can continue to be opportunistic, especially inside its own 20-yard line, the Huskies should handle the Devils offense without much problem.

Washington has not won on the road in a long time (Nov. 3, 2007), but I think this is the week that they get over the hump.

Prediction: Washington 24 – Arizona State 17

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: WR James Johnson - Johnson was quiet last week, but he should be a key contributor in the passing game against ASU.

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Vontaze Burfict - Burfict has already lived up to all of the hype. Now the freshman phenom will have to help contain Jake Locker when he decides to run.

Dave’s Take (31 – 10):

Saturday’s game between the Huskies and Sun Devils matches strength VS. strength when Washington’s offense takes the field against ASU’s defense, and weakness VS. weakness when ASU’s offense faces Washington’s defense. So who gets the edge?

Washington ranks 106th nationally in total yards surrendered, giving up over 400 yards a game. They have done a decent job buckling down in the red zone this season, and one of their best games of the season came against USC, who was running a very vanilla offense with Matt Barkley out. Arizona State runs a fairly basic pro style offense centered around Danny Sullivan making easy throws and Dimitri Nance getting plenty of carries; Nick Holt could hone in on that and get his unit ready.

While I can see the Sun Devils struggling on offense, I feel like the difference in this game is the Sun Devils defense. Technically, by the numbers, not much separates UW and ASU offensively; Washington gains only about seven more yards per game and has scored three points less per game. The difference? Jake Locker seems to have a killer instinct and the ability to finish drives and capitalize on opportunities; the Sun Devils haven’t really shown that on offense.

Defensively, though, I think the Sun Devils are better equipped than most teams to stop Locker. Sporting the nation’s third ranked defense (only 221.8 yards allowed per game), they have an excellent front seven that will make life very hard for Locker and Chris Polk. Washington scored 14 points at Stanford, 16 points against USC, and 23 points (could have easily been 16 points if not for the late TD) against LSU. That’s about where I see them ending up, in the 14-20 range against a very good defense.

So can ASU crack into the 20s? I say yes. We all have that outstanding effort against USC firmly planted in our brains, but this has not been a good defensive football team, and I think ASU can do just enough.

Prediction: Arizona State 23 – Washington 17

Arizona State Sun Devils 3-2 Overall (1-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona State 27 – Washington State 14

Next Week’s Opponent: Washington

Having a great day offensively against one of the worst defenses in college football in the Washington State Cougars wouldn’t have magically fixed all of the Sun Devils’ problems on offense; but it could have at least provided a step in the right direction.

Instead, the Sun Devils had a disastrous day on the offensive side of the ball, turning the ball over six times on three fumbles and three Danny Sullivan interceptions. On top of the six turnovers, the Sun Devils were also a woeful 3 for 12 on third down conversions.

The production of Dimitri Nance and Kyle Williams is bittersweet; obviously it’s great to see Nance rush for 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries and Williams pick up 126 receiving yards and a touchdown on 13 catches (as well as a huge 53 yard run), but both players, like Sullivan, are seniors. In a game like this, you’d like to see some younger players contribute, especially when the present looks so bleak on offense.

Defensively all systems are still go for the Sun Devils. With the exception of one bad play (ASU obviously didn’t think Jeff Tuel would be throwing long from inside his endzone) that saw Johnny Forzani get behind everyone for a 99-yard touchdown reception, the defense was virtually flawless.

The D racked up 12 sacks, skewing WSU’s rushing total to negative 54 yards, while also forcing two interceptions and two fumbles. Dexter Davis led the way with a sack and an interception, and his unit was impenetrable on Saturday. Taking away the one big play, Arizona State only allowed 82 yards of total offense. That’s just crazy.

Something’s gotta give; either the offense needs to step up and feed off of the defense’s incredible energy, or the offense will continue to sleepwalk and turn the ball over and it will eventually take its toll on the defense. Washington coming to town this week is a big gut check. Riding on the offense’s shoulders is this team’s bowl fate; and quite possibly the fate of Coach Dennis Erickson, too.

And speaking of Erickson, how long before he makes a change at quarterback? What Danny Sullivan lacked in talent he was supposed to make up for with veteran poise and not turning the ball over; but with four interceptions in the last two games, that certainly hasn’t been the case. It may not only be ASU’s season on the line next week, but Sullivan’s starting job as well.

Arizona State Sun Devils 2-2 Overall (0-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 28 – Arizona State 17

Next Week’s Opponent: @Washington State

The Sun Devils took a major step backwards last Saturday, losing a pivotal conference opener at home. While a bowl game is still possible, the road just got a whole lot tougher.

The numbers don’t tell the story for ASU in their loss to OSU. The Devils managed to outgain the Beavers 406-295 in total offense, and Danny Sullivan threw for a career-high 338 yards (1 TD, 1 INT). But none of that mattered because the score was 21-3 in favor of OSU before most fans had a chance to fully settle into their seats.

ASU looked lethargic, unmotivated, unprepared and altogether uninterested in competing against OSU from the outset. By the time the Devils started fighting, the hole was too deep to overcome.

The biggest storyline in Tempe right now revolves around the QB situation. Should Danny Sullivan still be the starter or does true freshman Brock Osweiler deserve a shot? For now, it seems Dennis Erickson is hell bent on sticking with the senior, though he did not rule out the possibility of playing other QBs. It has become painfully clear that the majority of ASU fans have turned on Sullivan, but he should not be blamed entirely for the dreadful offensive production.

The o-line continues to be ravaged with injuries, the running game was non-existent against OSU, and the receivers are not making nearly enough plays (except for Chris McGaha who had a ridiculous 15 catches for 165 yards against the Beavers). I also believe the play calling has been an issue, as there continues to be no creativity whatsoever. The zone read is great when a dual-threat QB like Colt McCoy is running it, but Danny Sullivan is no threat to take off and Dimitri Nance does not have the lateral quickness to make defenders miss (especially when it is obvious he will get the handoff).

Erickson and the rest of the coaching staff knew coming into the ’09 season that the defense would have to carry this team, and Craig Bray’s unit couldn’t do it against OSU. The defense was by no means terrible on Saturday, but the secondary struggled with James Rodgers and Demola Adeniji all night and the pass rush continues to be surprisingly weak.

The Devils should be able to regain a bit of confidence in Pullman this week, but sadly, a loss to WSU is not out of the question. The schedule is going to get really tough after this week, so ASU must find an identity soon or this could be another forgettable year in the Valley of the Sun.

Oregon State Beavers 3-2 Overall (1-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score:  Oregon State 28 – Arizona State 17

Next Week’s Opponent: Stanford

After disappointing losses to Cincinnati and Arizona, Oregon State pounced on the hometown Sun Devils right away and finally ended the 40-year winless streak in Tempe.

The Beavers played inspired football against ASU, particularly along the offensive and defensive lines. Obviously, a loss to the Devils would have been devastating considering the rest of the schedule, but Mike Riley’s team showed great character by playing with determined aggression from the opening kickoff.

I was very impressed with QB Sean Canfield (18/30 216 yards 2 TDs, 1 INT) and the rest of the OSU offense, which moved the ball fairly well despite the running game being held to 79 yards (3.3 YPC). Canfield made some excellent throws, including a perfect deep ball to James Rodgers at a key point in the fourth quarter, and a beautiful fade to Adeniji for a TD. If Canfield plays with that kind of poise for the rest of the season, the Beavers may find themselves in the Pac-10 race once again. While Jacquizz Rodgers was good (81 yards rushing, 2 TDs), James was the real difference maker on Saturday because of his ability to make plays at critical moments in the game (114 receiving yards, 1 TD).

Mark Banker knew his defense needed to shut down the ASU rushing attack in order to have a successful day, and they did just that, holding Dimitri Nance and Co. to 68 yards (2.2 YPC). QB Danny Sullivan did manage to throw for 338 yards, but the Beavers rattled him all game and never gave up the big play. ASU was only 4-18 on 3rd Down, and that is a credit to the pressure applied by the front seven. The secondary played pretty well (particularly CB Brandon Hardin), but there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Now comes another step up in competition as the Beavers host Stanford, which is arguably the hottest team in the conference right now. Mike Riley knows how difficult the game against the Cardinal will be:

“I almost hate to be playing them right now” said Riley.

Certainly it will take a tremendous defensive effort to stop Toby Gerhart, but I think the OSU defense regained some confidence in Tempe. For the Beavers to have a chance, they must match the physical intensity of Jim Harbaugh’s club. A win over the Cardinal, and another nine-win season may be possible.

Arizona State Sun Devils 2-1 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Georgia 20 – Arizona State 17

Next Week’s Opponent: Oregon State

In their first game against a quality opponent, Arizona State definitely showed us something; they’ve got plenty of compete in them.

Coming into the game as the nation’s top-ranked defense, the Sun Devils did not disappoint, doing an excellent job slowing down the juggernaut Georgia offense. The Bulldogs were held to only 334 yards of total offense, and Joe Cox threw two interceptions; both to Jarrell Holman, who took one of them to the house for a go-ahead score in the third quarter.

In the end, the difference ended up being one of the most explosive players in the sport in A.J. Green. He was the only Bulldog player that the Sun Devils didn’t have an answer for; and there aren’t many teams in the country that do.

Worries about the offense, especially in regards to Danny Sullivan, still remain in the wake of this game. Sullivan was only able to go 10/32 for 116 yards, a touchdown and an interception; not particularly re-assuring against a Georgia team whose defense hasn’t been all that strong this season.

On the positive side of things on offense, Dimitri Nance provided a big spark, racking up 92 rushing yards on 25 carries and 47 yards and a touchdown on four catches. His 139 total yards made up for nearly 70% of the team’s total offense (204 total yards). Kyle Williams led the receiving corps with three catches for 45 yards, and also added 51 yards on three kick returns and 29 yards on two punt returns.

The Georgia game seems to have confirmed what many of us have been assuming would be the case; Arizona State’s defense is strong enough to give them a chance to win against anyone on any given Saturday, but the offense isn’t quite there to put them over the top yet.

Moral victories are never close to as good as the real thing, but the fact that it took a blocked field goal late in the game to prevent ASU from taking the late lead and potentially pulling off the upset should re-enforce the feeling that they can compete with anyone. Dennis Erickson will have his team ready to play against Oregon State, and even with a less-than-stellar offense, there is no reason the Sun Devils shouldn’t be confident heading into conference play.

Arizona State Sun Devils 2-0 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona State 38 – Louisiana Monroe 14

Next Week’s Opponent: @Georgia

I was convinced that we would learn quite a bit more about this ASU team after the UL Monroe game. After watching the Sun Devils cruise to a comfortable win against an over-matched Warhawks team, I still can’t get a firm read on how the Devils will perform in the Pac-10. ASU certainly beat a better team than Idaho State on Saturday, but is anyone really sold on this team yet?

I did see a more consistent offense against ULM, as Danny Sullivan was able to throw for a career- high 220 yards (1 TD 0 INT) on 19/31 passing. Sullivan seemed to be more comfortable in the pocket and he delivered the ball on time for most of the night, but what will he do against better teams? I thought the offensive line played a little better as well, but again, we will learn much more about the potential improvement of the offensive front in ASU’s next game.

The running game was decent, as Dimitri Nance scored twice and gained 82 yards on 17 carries, but Nance is no home run threat, and I believe the offense could use some more explosion at tailback (more carries for Ryan Bass maybe?).

The highlight of the night (aside from Omar Bolden’s opening kickoff return TD) was Chris McGaha’s fingertip TD catch that has become his trademark in Tempe.

Defensively, the Devils dominated for most of the night, but I was a little surprised that the unit failed to record a sack. The ASU D will have to carry this team at times, so Craig Bray’s unit needs to be dialed in at all times. The secondary hasn’t had a whole lot to do through two games, so it should be interesting to see how the DBs perform now that the real schedule begins.

Next, ASU makes the trip to Athens, GA, where 92,000 Bulldogs fans will be awaiting at Sanford Stadium. At last, we will finally learn something about the Sun Devils. The offense will need to generate some big plays this week (something we haven’t really seen yet), while also continuing to play turnover-free football (no turnovers through two games for offense). The defense will need to be great (something the unit is capable of being), especially considering how well the UGA offense is playing right now. This litmus test is exactly what ASU needs before entering conference play the next week.

The incumbent at running back is senior Dimitri Nance. Nance led all ASU halfbacks in 2008 with 410 yards and three touchdowns. He split carries with Keegan Herring (graduated) last season in Tempe, and enters 2009 with 1,139 yards and 13 touchdowns for his career. At 5-10 218-pounds, Nance is always moving forward, and runs with a compact style. He is also a reliable pass-catcher, with 35 receptions for 247 yards in his career. The Euless, Texas native should be an asset in short yardage and goal line situations.

Although Nance can be a solid inside-runner, he lacks explosion and has never run for 100 yards in a game. Last season Nance ran into fumbling trouble in multiple games, and his playing time could be reduced this fall if the problem persists.

Dimitri Nance braces for impact

If you are looking for a potential superstar among the Sun Devil tailbacks, look no further than true sophomore Ryan Bass. Bass is one of the most decorated high-school runningbacks ever to sign with ASU. The 5-10 205-pound playmaker saw very limited action in 2008, rushing for 120 yards on only 26 carries.

This spring, Bass may have foreshadowed what is to come in the fall. He scored the only touchdown of ASU’s Maroon and Gold spring game; an impressive 35-yard scamper that gave the Tempe faithful a chance to see his speed and quickness. Bass attended football powerhouse Corona-Centennial High School (CA) where he rushed for a superhuman 7,096 yards with 117 touchdowns during his career. Rivals.com rated him as the number two all-purpose back in the class of 2008 and gave him 4-stars. He was also a Parade and Prep-Star All-American.

Bass could be a perfect fit for Dennis Erickson’s newly installed zone-read offense. He ran the same type of offense at Corona-Centennial, and it is designed to take advantage of his electrifying skills in space. Bass can score from anywhere on the field, and has enough bulk to carry the ball 25 times a game. He only lacks experience, and 2009 will be his chance to get plenty of it.

Senior Shaun DeWitty is ASU’s biggest tailback. At 6-2 210-pounds, DeWitty possesses a unique skill-set as both a ball carrier and receiver. He is by far the best blocking back on the team, but is also valuable on screen and draw plays.

Shaun Dewitty cuts upfield

DeWitty has 91 career carries for 402 yards (4.4 avg). He also has 18 career receptions for 184 yards and two TD’s. Last season, the Colorado Springs (CO) product ran for 270 yards on 62 attempts. DeWitty has some academic issues to get in order, but could be a valuable back for the Sun Devils next season.

The x-factor back for Arizona State is redshirt freshman James Morrison. At 5-11, 219-pounds, Morrison was a walk-on last year. Since arriving on campus, the Phoenix St. Mary’s High School (AZ) product has surprised everyone with his power running and lateral quickness. Some believe he can recreate the same physical, downhill running style that Ryan Torain brought to the Devils. Like Bass, Morrison lacks experience but has incredible upside. He has missed some time with a broken ankle, but should be ready for the season.

Other backs that could see time this season are senior Jarrell Woods, sophomore Avory Battle and true freshmen Jamal Miles and Cameron Marshall.

My Take

Arizona State may have to pass to set up the run this year. With the offensive line still a huge question mark, I think a few completed deep balls by QB Danny Sullivan may open up running lanes. If space does open up, this unit of tailbacks could be very good. Nance and DeWitty will start the year on top of the depth chart, but both need to be better than they were last year.

Bass has all the talent to be a star next year if Erickson takes advantage of his zone-read capabilities. I remember watching Bass at Corona-Centennial, and the guy can flat-out fly. If some of the other big-bodied backs can loosen the defense up, Bass may be the difference-maker for the entire ASU offense. I also think James Morrison could be the perfect compliment to Bass by the second half of the season. Morrison will have to prove himself in real game situations, but the coaches believe a lot in his ability.