Arizona State Sun Devils (4-6) vs. UCLA Bruins (5-5)
Saturday, November 21, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: UCLA -5.0

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

For most of the 2009 season, Arizona State and UCLA have looked like mirror images of one another. Each team features a very strong defense, an inconsistent offensive line, and most recently, a young quarterback with great promise. The Bruins and Sun Devils also share identical conference records (2-5) with their two Pac-10 wins coming over the lowly Washington schools.

As I look at this game, the biggest difference I see is the current state of the offenses. UCLA has struggled for most of the season offensively, but the unit has begun to make strides. QB Kevin Prince’s confidence seems to be high right now, and he finally has a difference maker to throw to on the outside in WR Nelson Rosario. If RB Derrick Coleman, Milton Knox, or Jonathan Franklin can spark the running game this week, the Bruins may have a chance to crack the stingy Sun Devil D.

Arizona State is looking to rally behind a new starting quarterback this week. Samson Szakacsy will be the third QB to start for the Devils this season, and he is also the most intriguing. Szakacsy is a true dual-threat with skills most suited for the zone-read scheme that Dennis Erickson implemented in the off-season. Against Oregon, Szakacsy demonstrated his ability to keep plays alive by scrambling, a foreign concept for the ASU offense up to that point.

Ultimately, I believe the Bruins will win a tight, hard-fought game this Saturday for two reasons. 1.) It’s senior day in Pasadena, and two of the best defensive players in the history of the program (CB Alterraun Verner, LB Reggie Carter) will be playing their final game in the Rose Bowl (and junior DT Brian Price is probably gone after this season as well). 2.) UCLA can become bowl eligible with a victory, which means the USC game is no longer a must win.

I look for the Bruins to prevail in a close and very physical game.

Prediction: UCLA 24 – Arizona State 20

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: K Thomas Weber - In a close game, a player like Weber becomes invaluable. His groin injury appears to be a thing of the past, so the Devils should be in scoring range once they cross the Bruins’ 40-yard line.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Chane Moline - Moline is coming off of a 3 TD game against Wazzu, and the versatile fullback could have a big impact again this week.

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Before the season even started, I remember having this game circled as an extremely evenly matched one. My opinion hasn’t changed.

Both teams have weak offenses, both have strong defenses, both are clearly outside of the conference’s top tier, and both have wins over both Washington schools.

I’d consider this game a virtual coinflip. Yes UCLA has looked to be in better form over the last few weeks, but ASU’s four-game losing streak pretty much looks like UCLA’s five-game one did.

Before the season started, I picked UCLA to finish below ASU in conference play, and I’m sticking with that prediction. I expect a low-scoring ugly game with plenty of great defense and punting, and Arizona State to come out on top when it’s all said and done.

Prediction: Arizona State 16 – UCLA 13

UCLA Bruins (4-5) vs. Washington State Cougars (1-8)
Saturday, November 14, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: UCLA -18.0

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

November in Pullman… does it get any better? Excuse the sarcasm, but the near-freezing temperature is just what the doctor ordered for a Cougar squad that is looking for any kind of advantage. UCLA is certainly not used to the cold, so it will be interesting to see how the Bruins handle themselves (especially if snow starts falling).

After a two-month drought, UCLA finally found a way to win their first Pac-10 game of the season by defeating Washington last week. The Bruins did everything they could to hand UW the game (committed five turnovers), but the win kept UCLA’s bowl hopes alive.

I’m sure Rick Neuheisel has been preaching ball security all week in practice, especially with less than ideal weather conditions expected for Saturday. I believe the only way UCLA can lose to WSU is if they turn the ball over frequently, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Norm Chow go with a relatively conservative game plan.

QB Kevin Prince has been cleared to start this week, which is especially good news for Bruins fans considering the progress that Prince has made as of late. The freshman QB shouldn’t have much trouble dissecting the nation’s 118th ranked passing defense, unless Chow elects to primarily pound the ball on the nation’s 115th ranked run defense. Either way, Wazzu is probably in for a long day.

The Bruins may have to grind this game out for a little while, but I expect Rick Neuheisel’s club to return to sunny Southern California with a chance to become bowl eligible next week.

Prediction: UCLA 33 – Washington State 14

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Derrick Coleman – Coleman will get the start this week in place of Jonathan Franklin, and he is the perfect “bad weather” tailback. I expect the 235-pound bruiser to be very effective Saturday.

Washington State Player to Keep an Eye On: C Kenny Alfred – I don’t spotlight o-lineman often, but Alfred is a difference maker who may actually be capable of containing the “unblockable” DT Brian Price.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

There isn’t much doubt that UCLA is in the bottom half of the conference; that much is clear because they’ve played everyone but USC in the top half.

Yes they head into this game against Washington State in 9th place in the conference, but the gauntlet of @Stanford, Oregon, Cal, @Arizona, and @Oregon State is the reason why. When they played a team at their level in the bottom half of the conference (Washington), they pulled off the win despite a very ugly game in which they lost the turnover battle 5 to 1.

This week, they play a team they are a level above. Washington State has proven that they simply can not compete in the Pac-10 at this point, and despite the fact that UCLA is not an upper-echelon team, it would take a perfect storm of UCLA at their worst, WSU at their best, and a ton of favorable bounces for the Cougars to walk away with the victory.

Needless to say, I don’t expect that to happen.

Prediction: UCLA 31 – Washington State 10

UCLA Bruins 3-0 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: UCLA 23 – Kansas State 9

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

I know I keep playing this game, but think back to before the season started. Suppose I told you that heading into week four, two teams in the Pac-10 were going to be 3-0, and both were in California.

I would have been telling you the truth. But who’d have penciled in UCLA to be the undefeated team in Southern California?

UCLA heads into their bye week a perfect 3-0, highlighted of course by their upset win in Tennessee. With Kevin Prince sidelined with a broken jaw, UCLA ran a nice safe offense against Kansas State and let their defense do the work. The Bruins have had at least two interceptions in all three of their contests this season, kept alive last Saturday by Alterraun Verner’s two picks.

While I again don’t claim to know what is best for the team over Rick Neuheisel (who clearly does), I was personally not thrilled at all to see Kevin Craft under center for the Bruins Saturday. He didn’t do much to prove me wrong either; his 13/24, 186 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT day wasn’t all that bad, but against Kansas State, it didn’t do anything to lead me to believe he’s ready to successfully hold the fort down until Prince gets back.

Jonathan Franklin built on his impressive effort against Tennessee, this time rushing for 119 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. He and Derrick Coleman (who also had a nice day with 46 yards on eight carries) will be leaned on heavily for the rest of the season, but even more so in Prince’s absence.

I hate to be so hard on Kevin Craft, but I watched enough UCLA games last year to have the image of him throwing a horrible interception and being scolded by Neuheisal for it permanently burned into my skull. When UCLA heads into Stanford to start conference play a week from Saturday, can you really trust him to make plays when the offense needs it, and more importantly to NOT TURN THE BALL OVER?

We don’t know much about Richard Brehaut, but we know plenty about Kevin Craft. I’d love to see Brehaut get a look over the next week and a half, but Saturday’s game told us which direction Neuheisel is leaning. He undoubtedly knows better than I do; but if Craft starts that game and implodes, it’ll be hard not to say I told you so.

But for now, no need to stress about that; enjoy your week off Bruin fans, and congrats on the excellent start.

Kansas State (1-1) vs. UCLA Bruins (2-0)
Saturday, September 19, 7:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: UCLA -12.5

Sam’s Take (14 – 4):

The UCLA Bruins took a big step with the win in Knoxville last Saturday, but now they must find a way to carry the momentum for the next few weeks without starting QB Kevin Prince. The likely replacement for Prince will be true freshman Richard Brehaut, but Kevin Craft has also practiced with the first team this week.

While Brehaut certainly has talent, the Bruins will probably not ask him to do much. This team can win with defense, special teams, and a solid running game, and I expect that to be the recipe for victory this week against Kansas State.

Coach Rick Neuheisel has suspended four players for the K-State game, including starting cornerback Courtney Viney. Still, even with all of the injuries and distractions I foresee a relatively comfortable win for the Bruins.

Bill Snyder will get his Wildcats back to national prominence (when he fielded teams with superstars like Ell Roberson and Darren Sproles in the early part of the decade), but they are not even close right now. Snyder’s decision to return to Manhattan this season excited KSU fans, but with a bad performance against Massachusetts and an inexplicable loss to UL Lafayette, the honeymoon period seems to be over.

I look for the Bruins D to be utterly dominant, while tailbacks Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman should carry the offense.

Prediction: UCLA 28 – Kansas State 13

Kansas State Player to Keep an Eye On: QB Carson Coffman – Coffman has been shaky so far, and was benched briefly in the first half of the loss to UL Lafayette. Nonetheless, he will remain the K-State quarterback and must be MUCH better against the Bruins than what he has shown through two games.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Sheldon Price - Price is a true freshman filling in for the suspended Viney (who was filling in for the injured Hester). His play will be interesting to watch, as it will give us some indication of how deep the Bruins are at corner.

Dave’s Take (14 – 4):

To carry the momentum of the Tennessee win back home and turn it into a three game winning streak, UCLA will need to avoid the slow start that they had against the Aztecs in their season opener.

With Kevin Prince out for 3-4 weeks with a broken jaw, it will be up to either Richard Brehaut or Kevin Craft (or perhaps a bit of both) to keep things afloat. Personally, I think playing Craft would be a mistake; so many good things have happened here in 2009 that sending Craft back out there would just bring back all of the visions of 2008’s struggles. But maybe I’m just being dramatic, and I’m sure Rick Neuheisel has a much better idea of what’s best for the team than I do.

If they can avoid the slow start they had against San Diego State, it shouldn’t matter who’s at quarterback; they should be able to win this game on running the football, defense, and special teams. Kansas State will have a lot of trouble finding the endzone on offense. Defensively they do have some good athletes, and if Kevin Craft is in there and makes the same bad decisions he did last year, it could spell trouble.

In the end, I don’t expect the Bruins to ask their quarterback to do too much; just hand off the ball and ultra-safe passes, and let the defense and special teams do the rest. UCLA should come out on top here, but if they suffer from a letdown and fall behind early, this one could be dangerous.

Prediction: UCLA 20 – Kansas State 10

UCLA Bruins (1-0) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (1-0)
Saturday, September 12, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Tennessee -9.0

Sam’s Take (8 – 1):

I see a lot of similarities in the Vols and Bruins. Both teams feature very good defenses full of all-conference performers, and both offenses are loaded with young, explosive skill-position talent.

In my opinion, the big difference between the two programs is at the quarterback position. Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton is an experienced senior that has looked outstanding from the day Lane Kiffin and Co. arrived in Knoxville.

Certainly his performances in past seasons have driven Vols fans crazy, but after an excellent spring and an encouraging five-touchdown day against Western Kentucky, Crompton really has the look of a brand new QB. Now he will have to prove how far he has come against a great defense that fared well against him last year.

The Bruins, on the other hand, will send a freshman QB into one of the most hostile environments in the country. There is no denying the talent of Kevin Prince, but this game will be a tall order for him, especially since the UCLA offensive line is still a work in progress. It is critical that he resists the urge to force throws into tight spaces, as he is facing an elite, ball-hawking secondary. He has plenty of weapons (Embree, Austin, Rosario, Paulsen etc.), but his decision-making must be better than it was last Saturday. This game will be a great opportunity for Prince to show what he’s made of.

I expect both teams to use a lot of freshmen on offense. Vols fans got a taste of what heralded true freshman RB Bryce Brown could do (104 -rushing yards, one TD), and I was also impressed with freshman RB David Oku. Both tailbacks should see time behind starter Montario Hardesty. I am also impressed by freshman WR Marsalis Teague, who has Tennessee fans raving about his ability.

For UCLA, I expect to see freshmen Jonathan Franklin, Milton Knox, and Damien Thigpen all involved at running back along with sophomore Derrick Coleman. Norm Chow may also use lightning fast WR Randall Carroll (also a freshman) in order to stretch the Vols D.

As mentioned before, both defenses are excellent. UCLA started slowly against SDSU, but they were exceptional after the first quarter. Obviously Tennessee is also strong on D, especially now that defensive genius Monte Kiffin has installed his famous “Tampa 2” system. I expect S Eric Berry to be even better than he has been because of Kiffin’s system, so the Bruins must be aware of his presence at all times.

In the end, I expect a game effort from the Bruins, but the margin for error is very small for Prince. I think the Vols will be a little too tough at Neyland Stadium, and a few UCLA mistakes should be the difference.

Prediction: Tennessee 31 – UCLA 20

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Courtney Viney - With Aaron Hester sidelined with an injury, Viney will need to step up this Saturday. Crompton may look to attack him early.

Tennessee Player to Keep an Eye On: The Entire Offensive Line - This is a massive front that routinely sprung the talented stable of running backs last week. It is critical that DT Brian Price and the rest of the Bruins d-line hold up in this battle.

Dave’s Take (8 – 1):

Tennessee is buzzing after a dominant 63-point performance last week, but let’s calm down Vols fans, it was just Western Kentucky. Tennessee’s offense will have a substantially tougher time putting points on the board against this stout UCLA defense.

Obviously the defense can’t afford to get off to a slow start like they did last week. Down 14-3 at home against San Diego State is quite a bit different from being down two scores on the road against Tennessee.

With last year’s game really setting the tone for a disastrous season last year, the revenge factor will definitely be pumping in Tennessee’s favor this time around. But the real story here will be quarterback Kevin Prince.

This looks like it will be a very difficult day for Prince. It’s hard enough to go into an extremely hostile environment, but to do so with a battered up offensive line against a tough defensive line, as well as having one of the absolute best in the nation in Eric Berry up against you? Not exactly a fun way to get your career started on the road.

I expect Tennessee to do a good job defending against the run and forcing Prince to try to beat them, which could spell trouble. He’s got a bright future ahead of him, but expecting a mistake free day this Saturday might be asking too much.

I see Tennessee having difficulty putting points on the board as well, especially if UCLA’s defensive line can control the tempo. This game should be one of those ugly battle-for-every-inch types, with Tennessee’s home field advantage and thirst for revenge giving them the edge.

Prediction: Tennessee 20 – UCLA 13

UCLA Bruins 1-0 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: UCLA 33 – San Diego State 14

Next Week’s Opponent: @Tennessee

Sam’s Take:

UCLA started the 2009 season in terrible fashion (down 14-3 to start), but responded well while getting contributions from a variety of exciting new players.

QB Kevin Prince looked like a freshman making his first start, finishing 18-29 for 176 yards passing with one touchdown and two interceptions. SDSU DC Rocky Long threw a lot of looks at Prince, and I was impressed with how he handled himself for the most part. I loved the power running of Derrick Coleman as well as the speed of Jonathan Franklin, and the compact style of Milton Knox should provide a different dimension for the run game in ’09.

On defense, Rahim Moore was tremendous for the entire game and picked off three Ryan Lindley passes. Obviously the defense did not start well out of the gate, but once they settled down it became clear that this unit has the potential to be special in 2009. Price, Carter, and Verner looked good as usual, but the injury to Hester is an absolute depth killer at corner.

With a solid win to begin the year, UCLA will now make the trip to Neyland Stadium to take on Lane Kiffin’s upstart Vols. Tennessee looked good this weekend, so a win in a hostile SEC stadium would be huge for the Bruins.

Dave’s Take:

Defense, defense, defense. After getting caught flat footed on the first two drives of the game (including inexplicably allowing WR Vincent Brown to get behind everyone on the second drive leading to a 78-yard touchdown pass), the Bruins settled down and completely shut down the Aztecs for the rest of the game.

Rahim Moore’s three interceptions led the way on defense, and Alterraun Verner capped off a nice day with a field goal block return for a touchdown. The defense was every bit as good as advertised save the first two drives of the game.

Kevin Prince was far from perfect in his debut, but regardless of the final line, he was a noticeable upgrade over Kevin Craft. He’ll have to be better next week for UCLA to have a shot at beating Tennessee, but either way it will be a great experience for him to get a hostile road environment under his belt before Pac-10 play begins.

Derrick Coleman’s big day set the tone for a nice day on the ground for UCLA, racking up 69 yards and a touchdown on only four carries. All things considered, it was a nice opener for UCLA, and the final score wasn’t really indicative of how much the Bruins controlled this game from the second quarter on.

The off-season started with some tough losses for the Bruins running game. Last year’s leading rusher Kahlil Bell is gone. Bell finished his four-year Bruin career with over 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Next, talented sophomore Aundre Dean announced that he was transferring to TCU. Not long afterwards, Raymond Carter, another highly regarded runner, announced that he was headed to Colorado State. Both Dean and Carter were four-star talents that coach Neuheisel expected to use as feature backs one day. Losing both of them was a big blow for a unit desperate for explosive talent.

Now, it’s up to a group of relatively unproven tailbacks to revive the UCLA ground game.

Christian Ramirez takes the handoff

If there is a headliner to be found in this group, then redshirt junior Christian Ramirez is probably it. The 6-2 220 pound athlete missed the 2008 season due to academic ineligibility. Ramirez began his career as a safety before switching to tailback in 2007. He debuted as a running back against Stanford and wasted no time impressing the coaches, rushing for 55 yards on 5 carries, including a 24-yard scramble. For his career, Ramirez has run for 104 yards on 19 carries and has one career touchdown.

The El Centro California native might not have much experience, but his upside is exciting. While at Imperial High School (CA), Ramirez set a single-season school rushing record with 1,558 yards and 23 touchdowns. That season, he had a game in which he rushed for 304 yards and five touchdowns, another school record.

Ramirez runs with a slashing style and possesses a nice combination of size and speed. Norm Chow’s 1-back set should allow for Ramirez to flourish, but only if the offensive line can open up some running lanes. Unfortunately, Ramirez missed most of spring with a hamstring problem. If he can return to full speed this fall, UCLA may have their feature back.

The most experienced back on the roster is senior Chane Moline. The 6-1, 244 pound veteran is a versatile hybrid-back who could spend time at both running back and fullback this season. Moline’s natural position is fullback, which is where he will start the year for UCLA.

The San Juan Capistrano, CA native is a sure-handed receiver and will allow Norm Chow to exploit mismatches out of the backfield. Moline is also valuable in goal line situations, where he can create his own push even when the Bruins offensive line cannot. Moline has carried the ball 118 times for 446 yards and 6 TD’s. He also has 20 career receptions for 158 yards and one TD.

Chane Moline trucks forward

The leading rusher among backs returning to Westwood this fall is sophomore Derrick Coleman. As a freshman last season, Coleman ran for a respectable 291 yards and two TD’s on only 53 carries (5.4 yards per carry).

At 6-0 231 pounds, Coleman has tremendous size and strength, while displaying deceptive speed. Like Moline, he is great in short yardage situations and figures to see a lot of carries on 3rd down. Coleman flashed his potential against Fresno State last year, running for a team-high 86 yards on 10 carries. Coleman will start the 2009 season right behind Ramirez on the RB depth chart.

The speed element of UCLA’s running attack could be provided by redshirt freshman Jonathan Franklin. The 5-10 200 pound sprinter is also a track star and will give Norm Chow a potential home-run threat.  Franklin impressed coaches during his redshirt year, earning co-MVP honors on the scout team.

He is a skilled receiver out of the backfield as well, giving the UCLA offense another mismatch capability. Rivals.com rated him as the 16th best athlete of the 2008 class, and gave him four-stars. The Dorsey High (Los Angeles, CA) standout is a strong pass-blocker as well.

The sleeper of the unit is 5-8 200-pound redshirt freshman Milton Knox. Knox’s size and running style remind some around Westwood of former Bruin Maurice Jones-Drew. He is a compact athlete, and possesses incredible lower-body strength. He shared the co-MVP scout team honor with Franklin.

Knox was rated as the 12th running back nationally and given four-stars by Rivals.com. He ran for 2,210 yards and 39 TD’s as a senior at Birmingham High School (CA). The Pacoima, CA native could be the X-factor for the Bruins running attack if he continues to progress.

Other backs that could see time in 2009 include: redshirt senior RB Craig Sheppard, redshirt senior fullback Trevor Theriot, true freshman Damien Thigpen, and true freshman Dalton Hilliard.

My Take

There is talent in this group, but it may not surface because of the offensive line’s woes. If the line proves to be servicable, UCLA could be the surprise rushing team of the conference this season. Ramirez is still a bit of an enigma, so I think it will take a few games to really see what he can do.

I love Franklin and Knox for the future, and I think they are good enough to make up for the losses of Dean and Carter. Moline is a very versatile talent that could be all-conference now that he’s back at fullback. The bottom line; this unit has what it takes, but the o-line has to do it’s part. An improvement in the passing game that keeps defenses honest wouldn’t hurt, either.