Arizona State Sun Devils 4-7 Overall (2-6 Conference)

This Week’s Score: UCLA 23 – Arizona State 13

Next Week’s Opponent: Arizona

Yikes. Incredibly, the nightmarish 2008 season is actually looking good compared to this disastrous campaign. Has a team with a truly elite defense ever accomplished so little? ASU has been in so many close games this season because of the excellent defensive play, but the offense never came through. The Devils didn’t allow UCLA’s offense to score a TD for the entire game, and even managed to out gain the Bruins 315-292 in total yards. Yet somehow, ASU never really threatened to win the football game.

After watching this offense play 11 games, I can honestly say that it is one of the most inept units in the history of the program. For the first time since WWII, the Sun Devils will post back-to-back losing seasons. Oh, and for the first time in Dennis Erickson’s long college football career, he will have back-to-back losing seasons. Not a great time for the folks in Tempe.

I know a lot of people will be looking to blame QB Samson Szakacsy but the offensive problems are much bigger than him. Statistically, Szakacsy was very good (15/22 197 yards 2 TDs 1 INT), but when the pocket collapses on nearly every down an inexperienced QB is going to make mistakes. Personally, I still believe Szakacsy is the right choice for the Devils moving forward, but he needs time to develop and a MUCH BETTER supporting cast.

The season is essentially lost, but a rivalry is a rivalry right? At one point last Saturday night, it appeared ASU would be playing spoiler to the hated team from the south. Now that UA is officially eliminated from the Rose Bowl race, the only thing left to play for is the Territorial Cup and bragging rights. A win will give the program momentum heading into 2010, but an ugly loss will place Dennis Erickson firmly on the hot seat when next season starts.

Arizona State Sun Devils (4-6) vs. UCLA Bruins (5-5)
Saturday, November 21, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: UCLA -5.0

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

For most of the 2009 season, Arizona State and UCLA have looked like mirror images of one another. Each team features a very strong defense, an inconsistent offensive line, and most recently, a young quarterback with great promise. The Bruins and Sun Devils also share identical conference records (2-5) with their two Pac-10 wins coming over the lowly Washington schools.

As I look at this game, the biggest difference I see is the current state of the offenses. UCLA has struggled for most of the season offensively, but the unit has begun to make strides. QB Kevin Prince’s confidence seems to be high right now, and he finally has a difference maker to throw to on the outside in WR Nelson Rosario. If RB Derrick Coleman, Milton Knox, or Jonathan Franklin can spark the running game this week, the Bruins may have a chance to crack the stingy Sun Devil D.

Arizona State is looking to rally behind a new starting quarterback this week. Samson Szakacsy will be the third QB to start for the Devils this season, and he is also the most intriguing. Szakacsy is a true dual-threat with skills most suited for the zone-read scheme that Dennis Erickson implemented in the off-season. Against Oregon, Szakacsy demonstrated his ability to keep plays alive by scrambling, a foreign concept for the ASU offense up to that point.

Ultimately, I believe the Bruins will win a tight, hard-fought game this Saturday for two reasons. 1.) It’s senior day in Pasadena, and two of the best defensive players in the history of the program (CB Alterraun Verner, LB Reggie Carter) will be playing their final game in the Rose Bowl (and junior DT Brian Price is probably gone after this season as well). 2.) UCLA can become bowl eligible with a victory, which means the USC game is no longer a must win.

I look for the Bruins to prevail in a close and very physical game.

Prediction: UCLA 24 – Arizona State 20

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: K Thomas Weber - In a close game, a player like Weber becomes invaluable. His groin injury appears to be a thing of the past, so the Devils should be in scoring range once they cross the Bruins’ 40-yard line.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Chane Moline - Moline is coming off of a 3 TD game against Wazzu, and the versatile fullback could have a big impact again this week.

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Before the season even started, I remember having this game circled as an extremely evenly matched one. My opinion hasn’t changed.

Both teams have weak offenses, both have strong defenses, both are clearly outside of the conference’s top tier, and both have wins over both Washington schools.

I’d consider this game a virtual coinflip. Yes UCLA has looked to be in better form over the last few weeks, but ASU’s four-game losing streak pretty much looks like UCLA’s five-game one did.

Before the season started, I picked UCLA to finish below ASU in conference play, and I’m sticking with that prediction. I expect a low-scoring ugly game with plenty of great defense and punting, and Arizona State to come out on top when it’s all said and done.

Prediction: Arizona State 16 – UCLA 13

Arizona State Sun Devils 4-6 Overall (2-5 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 44 – Arizona State 21

Next Week’s Opponent: @UCLA

This is looking all too familiar. A four game losing streak could soon turn to six… the same length as last season. ASU has not posted back-to-back losing seasons since 1946-47, but the program is staring 4-8 right in the face. The Devils are not favored to beat UCLA this week, and they won’t be favored to beat the Wildcats either. So what happened?

In my opinion, it has been a perfect storm of unfortunate circumstances. The offense wasn’t good to begin with, but when you play with a different combination of offensive lineman almost every week how can you expect to develop any cohesion? Three key contributors on the o-line suffered season ending injuries (Zach Schlink, Matt Hustad, Mike Marcisz) and numerous others missed time throughout the year. But the injury trouble wasn’t restricted to the o-line only, as 14 Sun Devils (seven different positions) suffered season-ending injuries.

The game against Oregon went about as expected. The normally stout ASU D never had a chance, but that should come as no surprise, as the Devils have not had any success against Chip Kelly’s misdirection spread attack since it debuted in 2007. Defensive coordinator Craig Bray even resorted to practicing without a ball all week in order to force the Devils to focus only on their assignments, but it just didn’t matter.

QB Brock Osweiler’s first start only lasted one half because of a shoulder injury, but that may have been a good thing. QB Samson Szakacsy led the offense on two third quarter TD drives which cut the UO lead to 31-21. Szakacsy gave ASU a dimension that it hasn’t had since Jake Plummer, but will Erickson stick with the mobile sophomore?

I certainly would.

Sure, Osweiler has the 6-8 frame and cannon arm, but Szakacsy appears to be at his best when the play breaks down, and on this offense, that is often. Roll the dice DE, because against the Bruins defensive line (especially DT Brian Price), ASU will need a QB that can escape the pocket quickly.

Arizona State Sun Devils 4-5 Overall (2-4 Conference)

This Week’s Score: USC 14 – Arizona State 9

Next Week’s Opponent: @Oregon

Can a 14-9 loss to USC be classified as a moral victory for this Sun Devil team? I for one do not think so. Like the Georgia and Cal games, ASU should have beaten USC but couldn’t because of offensive ineptitude.

In the week leading up to the ‘SC game, Dennis Erickson was quoted as saying two things that should bother Devil fans. First, he stated that while QB Danny Sullivan may not win many games for ASU, he doesn’t lose them either. After Will Harris’s game-changing INT TD, does that logic still make sense?

Second, Erickson stated that his reason for sticking with Sullivan had a lot to do with the fact that freshman QB Brock Osweiler “isn’t ready”. The true freshman may not be, but how ready is Sullivan? It seems clear to me that the “unready” Osweiler gives the Devils a much better chance to win than the much-maligned senior.

Will coach Erickson finally adopt Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh’s youth movement mentality by rolling the dice with an inexperienced but ultra-talented young QB? Don’t hold your breath.

While the loss to the Trojans was disheartening, there were some positives. Obviously, the defense was exceptional all game, holding an explosive offense to 258 total yards and 12 first downs (ASU had 23). I was most impressed with the two new secondary starters, as both S Clint Floyd and CB Deveron Carr locked down their assignments all night (Floyd had the lone Barkley INT).

QB Brock Osweiler’s numbers may not look great (11/27 153 yards 1 TD 1 INT) but he displayed phenomenal arm strength and his mobility was as good as advertised. WR Chris McGaha (9 rec. 118 yards 1 TD) made some incredible catches (no surprise of course) and he now leads the team with 613 receiving yards (4 TDs).

Next, ASU heads to Eugene to play an angry Oregon team. At 4-5 (2-4 in Pac-10), the Devils may have to win out in order to secure a bowl game, especially with six Pac-10 teams already bowl eligible. Once again, don’t hold your breath.

USC Trojans (6-2) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-4)
Saturday, November 7, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -10.0

Sam’s Take (39 – 15):

The Trojans are coming off the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era, and that probably doesn’t bode well for ASU. Remember, this ‘SC program has not lost a game in the month of November since Carroll’s arrival.

Still, it’s difficult to know for sure how the Trojans dreadful performance in Eugene will affect the team moving forward. While the season may seem lost, a BCS Bowl is still likely if ‘SC wins out, so we will find out a lot about this team’s resiliency in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils may need to pull off the upset Saturday in order to keep their bowl hopes alive (remaining schedule includes @Ore, @UCLA, UA).

QB Matt Barkley really can’t be faulted for what took place last week, and I expect him to play very well in Tempe. ASU has proven to be rock solid against the run this season (4th nationally), so ‘SC will likely go to the air early with Barkley. The Devils D has developed a reputation for over-pursuing, so Jeremy Bates may also put in extra misdirection plays this week.

Dennis Erickson will once again turn to ASU QB Danny Sullivan, but he also hinted that former ‘SC commit QB Samson Szakacsy will have an expanded role in the offense. RB Dimitri Nance continues to be bothered by a shoulder injury; so true freshman RB Cameron Marshall could be the feature back this week. USC has certainly looked vulnerable on defense in the last few weeks, but the Sun Devils lack the offensive explosion of Notre Dame, OSU, and Oregon.

I expect a very physical game, as both USC and ASU prefer to play that style. But by the second half, the Trojans should pull away en route to another November win.

Prediction: USC 30 – Arizona State 17

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Ronald Johnson - RoJo caught a TD in each of the last two weeks, and I expect him to be heavily featured in the gameplan against ASU.

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Deveron Carr - The Arizona State coaches are reshuffling the Devils secondary after a disappointing outing vs. Cal, and Carr is likely to make his first career start this week.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

For a USC defense that has struggled immensely over the last three weeks, ASU’s manageable offense might be just what the doctor ordered. Since conference play has started, ASU has averaged 20.6 points per game. They will get their share of yards and points, but unlike the last three teams USC has played (with ND’s Jimmy Clausen, OSU’s Jacquizz Rodgers, and Oregon’s LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli), Arizona State doesn’t have any explosiveness in their backfield.

The biggest question mark in this game is simply how will USC react to having just been blown out? For a team that generally likes to have a lot of light-hearted fun during practice and preperation for games, a loss like this could throw things out of balance. If Pete Carroll tries to change too much too fast, it could really affect the team’s psyche. Will be interesting to see how they play this Saturday, especially in the first half.

For ASU, the message has been consistant all year; the defense can only do so much. They’ve been playing at a high level and giving the team a chance to win more often than not, but it just hasn’t been enough as the offense hasn’t been able to capitalize.

I expect similar in this one; ASU holds USC somewhere in the 28-35 range, but the offense continues to struggle.

Prediction: USC 28 – Arizona State 14

Arizona State Sun Devils 4-4 Overall (2-3 Conference)

This Week’s Score: California 23 – Arizona State 21

Next Week’s Opponent: USC

ASU’s bowl hopes are fading quickly. The miracle touchdown pass that beat Washington is now a distant memory, and the truth is, this Sun Devil squad has a lot of problems. In my opinion, the single biggest thing to take from Saturday’s incredibly frustrating loss is that Dennis Erickson is showing signs of losing his touch as a head coach. This ASU team really should have beaten Cal, but the team plays with absolutely no confidence in crunch time (forget the nutty U-Dub ending).

Erickson is coaching a group that is now the most penalized team in the nation, averaging 84.4 yards per game. Surprised? Of course you aren’t, and while the undisciplined play was not nearly as prevalent with his first two ASU teams, the boneheaded mistakes now seem unavoidable every week with this team. The penalties are unacceptable, and that is a direct reflection on the coaching staff’s inability to communicate a clear message to the players this season.

Erickson’s other big problem? He has become too conservative for his own good. He is afraid to embrace the youth at QB, even though Samson Szakacsy looked excellent on his one play Saturday and Brock Osweiler is still the peoples’ choice. Look, I respect Erickson’s football IQ, but I cannot understand how Danny Sullivan gives this team a better chance to win every week as opposed to the other two options.

The Devils defense played relatively well, holding Jahvid Best to only 63 yards rushing. But the unit still managed to give up 351 yards through the air, including 74 yards in the final 3:16 of the game. No one will question the strength of the front seven, but is this secondary a reliable group? Terrell Carr, Pierre Singfield, Jarrell Holman, and Ryan McFoy just don’t strike fear into an opposing QB’s eyes right now, and it has become clear that the defensive backfield desperately needs Omar Bolden to return.

Frankly, ASU could not afford the loss to CAL, as the Devils must now win two of their final four against the likes of USC, Oregon, UCLA and UA.

Arizona State Sun Devils (4-2) vs. Stanford Cardinal (4-3)
Saturday, October 24, 7:25 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Stanford -6.5

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

This game will not be for the faint of heart. Get your helmet strapped on tight, because there is going to be a lot of hitting. These two teams couldn’t have experienced more different emotions last week, as the Cardinal lost in devastating fashion and the Sun Devils won on one of the craziest plays of the year.

The story of this Saturday’s game on the Farm will be the battle between the ultra-physical Stanford offense and the ultra-physical ASU defense. I am particularly excited to witness what I am calling the “Battle of #7’s”, as RB Toby Gerhart and LB Vontaze Burfict will surely meet on multiple occasions.

As I see it, the team that gets better play at QB will win this game. While ASU’s Danny Sullivan has looked much improved lately, I am putting my money on Stanford’s Andrew Luck. Luck was incredible against Arizona (save that opening pick six), and he barely resembles a freshman at this point. Cardinal receivers are also starting to step up in a big way, as both Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu have developed into all-conference caliber players.

Danny Sullivan is playing with great confidence right now, but this is the week that he must prove he can play well on the road. In his last away game against Wazzu, Sullivan was absolutely terrible, so it should be interesting to see how he performs this week. I expect Dennis Erickson to call some high percentage screens and quick outs at the beginning of the game so that Sullivan can establish some rhythm.

Ultimately, I expect a very tightly contested game that is played in the low to mid-20’s. The ASU defense will probably be strong throughout, but I think a couple of key Toby Gerhart runs mixed in with a big play from Luck to Owusu may be the difference.

Prediction: Stanford 24 – Arizona State 23

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Jamal Miles - Miles made his debut last week against Washington, showing great speed and explosion which is what the offense could use more of.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Jim Dray - Jim Harbaugh loves to use multiple tight ends in the running and passing game, and Dray is arguably the most complete TE on the team.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

It’s really difficult to get a grasp on Stanford at this point. There isn’t much doubt that the offense is clicking; Andrew Luck is a star in the making, as are his main wideouts  Chris Owusu and Ryan Whalen; and Toby Gerhart is one of the premier rushers in the country. Stanford’s 429.9 yards per game ranks 23rd in the nation.

The defense, however, has been a major disappointment. The Cardinal have given up 38+ points in two straight games (38 against Oregon State and 43 against Arizona). Yes, these are two high power offenses; but the performances have been inexcusably bad all the same. How will they fare back at home against the Sun Devils?

For the second straight week, Arizona State will have strength against strength when their defense takes the field, and weakness against weakness when their offense takes the field. Ironically enough, it was the offense that came up with the huge play to win the game against Washington; but all due respect to Danny Sullivan and Chris McGaha, that was thanks in large part to a major defensive collapse.

Arizona State hasn’t failed to score 17 points in a game this season, and they shouldn’t fail to do so in this one either. If ASU gets the 17-24 points I expect them to, it would mean that Stanford would have to get into the mid-to-high 20s in scoring. Will they be able to do so against this stingy ASU defense?

My head says yes, but for some reason, my gut says no. It will take a hell of an effort all around, but I think the Sun Devils have it in them; and I think they get away with the upset.

Prediction: Arizona State 23 – Stanford 17

Arizona State Sun Devils 4-2 Overall (2-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona State 24 – Washington 17

Next Week’s Opponent: @Stanford

“We were trying to throw a 20-yard comeback to our outside guys and get in field-goal range. We took the tight end and Chris down the seams. I saw him (McGaha) by himself and thought that’s a hell of a play call, Dennis.”- ASU coach Dennis Erickson

The sarcasm in Dennis Erickson’s quote says it all. After all, how did Chris McGaha manage to get 15-20 yards behind the Husky defense? Certainly, Steve Sarksian and Nick Holt will take a lot of heat for the dramatic ending in Tempe, but you have to feel good for embattled quarterback Danny Sullivan. Just a few weeks ago, Sullivan was booed by the Sun Devil faithful as he exited Frank Kush Field after the Oregon State game, but on Saturday night he received thunderous applause for his game-winning 50-yard bomb with 13 seconds left to play.

Will the Devils use this win over the Huskies as a catalyst for a bowl game push? There is still plenty of work to be done, but the Devils appear to be improving each week and that is a very good sign.

The offense is starting to click in Tempe, as ASU racked up 464 yards of offense against the Dawgs. Sullivan played mistake-free, throwing for 263 yards and 1 TD on 21/35 passing. The offensive line continues to get better and better, and it was evident on Saturday as the unit paved the way for 170 yards on the ground while also giving Sullivan more time in the pocket.

Dimitri Nance ran hard on limited carries (13 car. 70 yards) and freshman Cameron Marshall flashed his explosiveness on a 75 yard run. The receivers had a fantastic game, and Kyle Williams even managed to throw a TD to T.J. Simpson (although Williams would later fumble on a sure TD at the goal line).

The defense played with the same fire and intensity that has defined the unit all year, and the night could have been better had it not been for a blown assignment on the first drive of the game (led to a Kearse TD) and the ridiculous penalties throughout the first half (Burfict was responsible for some and the officials were responsible for others). Still, the unit pressured Jake Locker all night and didn’t allow much in the running game.

Now the Devils will try to keep the momentum rolling as they head to Palo Alto for a date with an angry Stanford team. The Cardinal play as physical on offense as ASU does on D, and the battle of #7s (Gerhart vs. Burfict) should be great theater.

Arizona State Sun Devils 2-2 Overall (0-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 28 – Arizona State 17

Next Week’s Opponent: @Washington State

The Sun Devils took a major step backwards last Saturday, losing a pivotal conference opener at home. While a bowl game is still possible, the road just got a whole lot tougher.

The numbers don’t tell the story for ASU in their loss to OSU. The Devils managed to outgain the Beavers 406-295 in total offense, and Danny Sullivan threw for a career-high 338 yards (1 TD, 1 INT). But none of that mattered because the score was 21-3 in favor of OSU before most fans had a chance to fully settle into their seats.

ASU looked lethargic, unmotivated, unprepared and altogether uninterested in competing against OSU from the outset. By the time the Devils started fighting, the hole was too deep to overcome.

The biggest storyline in Tempe right now revolves around the QB situation. Should Danny Sullivan still be the starter or does true freshman Brock Osweiler deserve a shot? For now, it seems Dennis Erickson is hell bent on sticking with the senior, though he did not rule out the possibility of playing other QBs. It has become painfully clear that the majority of ASU fans have turned on Sullivan, but he should not be blamed entirely for the dreadful offensive production.

The o-line continues to be ravaged with injuries, the running game was non-existent against OSU, and the receivers are not making nearly enough plays (except for Chris McGaha who had a ridiculous 15 catches for 165 yards against the Beavers). I also believe the play calling has been an issue, as there continues to be no creativity whatsoever. The zone read is great when a dual-threat QB like Colt McCoy is running it, but Danny Sullivan is no threat to take off and Dimitri Nance does not have the lateral quickness to make defenders miss (especially when it is obvious he will get the handoff).

Erickson and the rest of the coaching staff knew coming into the ’09 season that the defense would have to carry this team, and Craig Bray’s unit couldn’t do it against OSU. The defense was by no means terrible on Saturday, but the secondary struggled with James Rodgers and Demola Adeniji all night and the pass rush continues to be surprisingly weak.

The Devils should be able to regain a bit of confidence in Pullman this week, but sadly, a loss to WSU is not out of the question. The schedule is going to get really tough after this week, so ASU must find an identity soon or this could be another forgettable year in the Valley of the Sun.

Arizona State Sun Devils 2-1 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Georgia 20 – Arizona State 17

Next Week’s Opponent: Oregon State

In their first game against a quality opponent, Arizona State definitely showed us something; they’ve got plenty of compete in them.

Coming into the game as the nation’s top-ranked defense, the Sun Devils did not disappoint, doing an excellent job slowing down the juggernaut Georgia offense. The Bulldogs were held to only 334 yards of total offense, and Joe Cox threw two interceptions; both to Jarrell Holman, who took one of them to the house for a go-ahead score in the third quarter.

In the end, the difference ended up being one of the most explosive players in the sport in A.J. Green. He was the only Bulldog player that the Sun Devils didn’t have an answer for; and there aren’t many teams in the country that do.

Worries about the offense, especially in regards to Danny Sullivan, still remain in the wake of this game. Sullivan was only able to go 10/32 for 116 yards, a touchdown and an interception; not particularly re-assuring against a Georgia team whose defense hasn’t been all that strong this season.

On the positive side of things on offense, Dimitri Nance provided a big spark, racking up 92 rushing yards on 25 carries and 47 yards and a touchdown on four catches. His 139 total yards made up for nearly 70% of the team’s total offense (204 total yards). Kyle Williams led the receiving corps with three catches for 45 yards, and also added 51 yards on three kick returns and 29 yards on two punt returns.

The Georgia game seems to have confirmed what many of us have been assuming would be the case; Arizona State’s defense is strong enough to give them a chance to win against anyone on any given Saturday, but the offense isn’t quite there to put them over the top yet.

Moral victories are never close to as good as the real thing, but the fact that it took a blocked field goal late in the game to prevent ASU from taking the late lead and potentially pulling off the upset should re-enforce the feeling that they can compete with anyone. Dennis Erickson will have his team ready to play against Oregon State, and even with a less-than-stellar offense, there is no reason the Sun Devils shouldn’t be confident heading into conference play.