Washington Huskies (3-6) vs. Oregon State Beavers (6-3)
Saturday, November 14, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -13.0

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

Anyone surprised to see Oregon State getting better every week? With all due respect to Washington State, OSU is essentially one win away from another high stakes Civil War showdown. The Beavers are playing lights out in all three phases of the game, and a conference title is still possible if a few things go their way.

Meanwhile, the Huskies are desperately trying to fight their way into the postseason. UW must win out (and that still might not be enough), and the first step will be finding a way to end an 11 game road-losing streak.

The recipe for stopping Mike Riley’s club used to be simple; contain the Rodgers brothers. But in recent weeks, QB Sean Canfield has forced defensive coordinators to completely re-write their game plans. The senior signal caller is completing 70% of his passes this season, and he is coming off of a season-high 342 yard game against Cal.

Suddenly the Beavers are full of playmakers, as Adeniji, Halahuni, Kjos, Bishop, and Nichols are all contributing. I expect more of the same from the OSU offense this week, as the unit will be facing a UW D that ranks 102nd nationally in total defense and 111th against the pass.

I can only see one path to victory for the Dawgs this week, and it requires a huge effort from QB Jake Locker. As bad as UW has been defending the pass, OSU is even worse (113th nationally in pass defense). If Locker can regain his early season form, the Huskies may have a punchers chance.

Ultimately, I think the Beavers will overwhelm Washington with a balanced offensive attack.

Prediction: Oregon State 37 – Washington 23

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Devin Aguilar – Every week I tend to spotlight a UW receiver, as this really is a talented group. The wideouts will have to be particularly productive Saturday against a vulnerable secondary, and I feel like Aguilar will rise to the occasion.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni looks like the best tight end in the conference right now, and I expect him to have another big game this week.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

Washington has played some very competitive football this season, but they’ve also reminded us that the rebuilding of a program doesn’t happen overnight.

Oregon State, meanwhile, has taken to their yearly trend of getting better as the season goes on, and with the way they are playing right now they have a shot against anyone in the conference.

One of the biggest stories this season has been the emergence of Sean Canfield into a star quarterback. It’s hard to believe there was actually supposed to be a QB battle with Lyle Moevao this fall. No quarterback in the Pac-10 has been much better than Canfield, and his season has helped other Beavers like Joe Halahuni and Damola Adeniji take their game to the next level as well.

The Washington defense has a good mentor in Nick Holt, but they don’t quite have the talent level yet to slow down a high-powered offense like this one. The Huskies will put some points up as well, but I expect a comfortable Beavers victory.

Prediction: Oregon State 38 – Washington 20

Oregon State Beavers 6-3 Overall (4-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon State 31 – Cal 14

Next Week’s Opponent: Washington

The horrifying visual of Jahvid Best landing hard on his upper back was all that any of us could think of during and after the game against the Cal Bears last Saturday; injuries like that transcend the action on the field. Fortunately, it appears that Jahvid Best will be okay, and suffered from a concussion; he has movement in all of extremities.

While the horrific injury may have taken our attention away from the game, the game did still go on; and it was one that the Beavers completely dominated.

‘Quizz Rodgers had a rare quiet day, rushing for only 67 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries (and hauling in nine catches for 30 yards), but Sean Canfield (29/39, 342 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and his favorite targets took care of the rest. James Rodgers (six catches, 80 yards and a TD) and Damola Adeniji (five catches, 87 yards) both had huge days, but breakout star tight end Joe Halahuni led the way with six catches for 128 yards. Jordan Bishop also added a touchdown on his sole reception.

Defensively, the Beavers had their best day of the season by far, allowing only 239 yards of total offense, including a minuscule 39 yards on the ground. The Bears obviously needed to take to the air more often in the second half down 24-7, but even before they abandoned the run, they’d never really been able to establish it in the first place (Best had 29 yards on 9 carries before leaving the game).

And here we are again; the Beavers are in the midst of their annual late season run. Sean Canfield has been nothing short of spectacular this season, and with both him and ‘Quizz Rodgers playing at All-Pac-10 levels, this offense is nearly impossible to stop. The Beavers now find themselves with an outside-chance at a Rose Bowl bid; as if they needed more motivation for the showdown @Oregon.

But no looking ahead; first, take care of Washington.

UCLA Bruins (3-4) vs. Oregon State Beavers (4-3)
Saturday, October 31, 1:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -9.5

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

Both Oregon State and UCLA suffered disappointing losses last week, but for far different reasons. The Beavers gave the Trojans everything they wanted plus some (OSU outgained ‘SC 482-429 yards), and a special teams breakdown may have been the only thing preventing OSU from a 3-1 record in the Pac-10. Meanwhile, UCLA found a way to lose to UA despite generating five turnovers, as the Bruins offense looked hopelessly lost.

It’s hard to envision a UCLA win here, especially with the way OSU’s Sean Canfield is playing (1,734 yards 11 TDs, 4 INTS, 68.2 % completions). Obviously, we know the Rodgers brothers will always get their yards, but when Canfield is throwing well the Beavers can pile up points on anyone. I have been most impressed by the offensive balance from Mike Riley’s team in the last few games, as players like WR Damola Adeniji, and TE Joe Halahuni have given the offense another dimension.

A strong argument could be made that RB ‘Quizz Rodgers deserves to go to New York for the Heisman Presentation. He has accounted for 1,089 total yards (810 rushing) and 15 TDs, including a 113 yard, 1 TD day against a Trojans D that ranks fifth nationally against the run. While UCLA features a stout front seven led by DT Brain Price, I don’t think any defense can stop ‘Quizz right now.

For UCLA, the offense has to find an identity this week. As strong as Oregon State has looked on offense, the defense has proven to be vulnerable (particularly against the pass). I am interested to see what Rick Neuheisel does at the QB position if Kevin Prince struggles early. Will we see QB Richard Brehaut take meaningful snaps in Corvallis? RB Jonathan Franklin has proven to be a reliable playmaker, but the overall lack of explosion in Norm Chow’s offense is very disconcerting.

I still have great respect for the UCLA defense, but until the offense can show some signs of life, the losing skid will continue. I look for Oregon State to come away with a workmanlike victory at Reser Stadium.

Prediction: Oregon State 31 – UCLA 20

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: S Rahim Moore – The highly-instinctive Moore has been a bright spot for the Bruins all season, and he enters Saturday’s game looking to add to his NCAA-best seven interceptions.

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Casey Kjos – Kjos only has six catches on the year, but he showed great route-running ability last week against USC and I believe he will contribute more and more as the season progresses.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

After yet another respectable game last week (albeit in a losing effort), Oregon State has firmly placed themselves in that “best of the rest” category with Arizona behind Oregon and USC. UCLA on the other hand looks completely lost; even with all of the turnovers last week, the offense never gave the team a chance to win.

As brilliantly as Sean Canfield has been playing, the real story in this one just might be UCLA’s inability to stop the run. Since conference play has started, UCLA has given up over 200 yards rushing in three of the four games they have played, with their “best” effort coming against Stanford where they gave up 174 yards rushing and Toby Gerhart had 134 yards and three touchdowns.

Since that Stanford game, UCLA has given up 719 rushing yards, good for just under 240/game. Going up against one of the premiere backs in the entire country in Jacquizz Rodgers, do you really expect things to get better this week?

Even if the Bruins can find some answers on offense against a less-than-stellar Beavers defense, I can’t see them finding any way to keep up with this offense, which has been outstanding in conference play and should continue to be this week. With two potentially winnable games at home against Washington and ASU as well as a road game against Washington State coming up, UCLA’s bowl dreams aren’t completely shattered just yet; but I don’t think the game in Corvallis is going to help any.

Prediction: Oregon State 34 – UCLA 17

Oregon State Beavers 4-3 Overall (2-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: USC 42 – Oregon State 36

Next Week’s Opponent: UCLA

While it’s always disappointing to come out of a hard fought game with a loss, the Beavers have a lot to be happy about, especially on offense. Oregon State proved once again this week that they can compete with anyone, and they should have a lot of say in how the conference ends up shaping up down the stretch.

482 yards and 36 points is a heck of an output against one of the nation’s best defenses; especially on their home turf. Sean Canfield had another fantastic day, going 30/43 for 329 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He spread the ball out to eight different receivers, including the day’s biggest surprise, TE Joe Halahuni who had a career day with nine catches and 127 yards. Damola Adeniji had another nice day with 81 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions, and James Rodgers caught a TD pass as well.

Jacquizz Rodgers knew he’d be game-planned for a lot more than he was last time around, but it didn’t seem to bother him; he rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries for a TD and caught for another one. ‘Quizz continues to quietly keep his name in the dark horse Heisman candidate conversation; in a year where they seemingly can’t give the trophy away, a few more big performances could earn some support in Rodgers’ corner.

The defensive side of the ball was not so exciting. Is it time to push the panic button yet? Oregon State’s defensive unit is usually its strength, but that just hasn’t been the case this season. The Beavers haven’t given up less than 375 total yards in a game since UNLV (and have given up over 400 in three of the five), and haven’t given up less than 200 passing yards in any game at all this season.

After the great success USC had running the ball (227 yards), you have to wonder how much of the Beavers’ success against the run this year has simply been due to the fact that opponents have moved the ball so easily through the air. I’d be willing to give the defense a pass due to the overwhelming talent this USC team possesses, but it has been a problem all year; and the unit was another stop or two away from shocking the world for the third time in four years.

Oregon State possesses the offensive firepower to shootout with anyone remaining on their schedule, especially with Canfield playing so well and opening up the Rodgers brothers by finding other receivers. That said, the team might face a fate similar to this week’s in their matchups @Cal and @Oregon if the defense doesn’t step it up.

Oregon State Beavers 2-2 Overall (0-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Arizona 37 – Oregon State 32

Next Week’s Opponent: @Arizona State

Oregon State came into the 2009 season with the motto “’09 Our Time”, and it certainly hasn’t been to this point.

Having started off the last three seasons 2-3, it was imperative that the Beavers started this season off with a bang; but after dropping two straight at home and heading to Arizona State this week to play a very stingy Sun Devils’ defense, avoiding the 2-3 record for the fourth straight year won’t be easy.

Of course it goes without saying that the Rodgers brothers had big games; they almost always do. ‘Quizz Rodgers racked up 155 total yards (16 carries for 85 yards and 13 catches for 70 yards), and James Rodgers had eight catches for 119 yards, two rushes for 15 yards, and five kick returns for 116 yards. Damola Adeniji is emerging as another go-to option, building on his five catches last week with six this week for 70 yards and a touchdown.

But both Rodgers brothers putting up a ton of stats doesn’t mean anything if the game doesn’t end up in the win column. Oregon State doesn’t want to be treated as an up-and-comer anymore; they want to be treated as a top-tier team in the conference, and three straight Top-25 finishes make their desires justified.

But here we are again, another slow start. Yes, the two losses come to what look to be two very good teams in Arizona and Cincinnati; but they are still two losses. And the biggest difference in this one was Sean Canfield’s interceptions.

With 4:09 left, the Beavers took over from their own three yard line needing a field goal to tie, but after getting to the 40 and having two incomplete passes, Canfield’s 3rd and 10 throw was intercepted by Devin Ross, eventually leading to the punt and safety that sealed Oregon State’s fate.

Next week’s game will tell us a LOT about the fate of the Beavers this year. Arizona State has a tremendous defense but the offense still has plenty of question marks. If the Beavers defense is going to step up and have a big day and give their team a chance to win, this would be the week to do it.

A win against the Sun Devils breaks the 2-3 streak, brings them to 1-1 in conference play, and perhaps builds some momentum for the perennial second half run. A loss would leave the Beavers at 0-2 in conference play, and with USC, Cal, and Oregon all coming on the road this year, it would plant serious doubt that “everything is going to be okay” this year.

Oregon State Beavers 2-1 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Cincinnati 28 – Oregon State 18

Next Week’s Opponent: Arizona

This was a disappointing loss for the Beavers but not a devastating one. Cincinnati is a good football team (the class of the Big East for sure), and the Bearcat offense could give any defense problems. I was also impressed with the size and physicality of Cincy’s D. Still, the Beavers had their chances to win against what I believe to be a legitimate Top-20 team.

I was actually very impressed with Mark Banker’s D. Giving up 28 points to that team is nothing to be ashamed of, and had it not been for a bogus fumble call (really bad by the refs in my eyes) the defense could have held Cincy to 21 points (and maybe even less if not for some unfortunate Beaver penalties). The only disappointing part for the D for me was the lack of consistent pressure. Tony Pike doesn’t need much time to hurt you out of that spread, but I felt like the Beavers didn’t fluster him enough with the pass rush.

Offensively, I saw mixed results for the Beavers. The OSU D put the offense in position to win this game, but sloppy play (particularly in the second quarter) kept the Beavers from capitalizing on some scoring opportunities. It’s always disappointing to come away with field goals rather than touchdowns when the offense is moving the ball pretty well, and I thought that was a deflating feeling for Mike Riley’s club (especially that 1st and Goal from the 5-yard line that resulted in only 3 points).

I am also a bit concerned about the predictability of the offense. Look, the Rodgers brothers are excellent and everyone knows it, but this offense cannot rely solely on their production. I like some of what I saw from Damola Adeniji, but for the most part, the offense only goes as far as James and Jacquizz take it. Canfield continues to be OK but also relatively underwhelming. I still think Canfield has the arm to make some big plays downfield with the long ball, but he has to find a reliable deep threat (Adeniji, Catchings, or someone else maybe?).

Now the Pac-10 season starts and it maybe time for the Beavers to start their annual win streak. Arizona is a good team but also a vulnerable one so OSU should be feeling pretty good about their chances in Corvallis this Saturday.