Oregon Ducks (8-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (6-3)
Saturday, November 21, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

The race to Pasadena stops in Tucson this week, and so will ESPN College Gameday. Both Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny in the Pac-10 title race, while the fate of Oregon State and Stanford will dramatically change depending on the outcome in this one.

The recent history between Oregon and Arizona leads me to believe we are in for another entertaining thriller. Oregon has lost two of their last three games against UA, and the ‘Cats have upset a Top 25 team at home in five straight seasons.

Stanford proved that it is possible to beat the Ducks in a shootout, as long as you have an excellent QB and a balanced offensive attack. Check and check for Arizona, as QB Nick Foles actually out dueled Andrew Luck earlier this season in a 43-38 UA win. RB Nic Grigsby is expected to play, and when healthy, he provides the ‘Cats with the same dynamic ability that LaMichael James brings to UO. Arizona also has a very capable defense with tremendous speed at all three levels (UA 18th nationally in total defense), so ‘Zona has all the ingredients necessary to pull the upset.

Having said all of that, I believe the Ducks will rise to the occasion. Unless Mike Stoops finds a way to clone QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaMichael James, there is no way the scout team will adequately prepare UA for that tremendous misdirection spread attack. I also think Nick Aliotti’s underrated defense will prevent UA’s quick passing attack from establishing a rhythm. Sonny Dykes offense is predicated on timing, but all of the receiver screens and quick slants can be thwarted by a disruptive defense (something the Ducks clearly have).

Chip Kelly’s team understands what is on the line this week, and I fully expect to see Oregon’s best effort of the season on Saturday. The Ducks have certainly had their struggles on the road this year, but I believe they are due for a big game away from Autzen.

I think Oregon wins a high-scoring affair at the Old Pueblo, which should setup one of the best Civil War games of all time.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Arizona 28

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Cliff Harris – Harris is one of the best young corners in the Pac-10, and the freshman will have to be at his best against a talented UA receiving corps.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR/KR Travis Cobb – I think Arizona will need to get something big out of the kick return game Saturday, and Cobb has already proven he can take it the distance (95 yard TD return two weeks ago).

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Honestly, I really don’t know what to do with myself in this game.

At first, I thought I was going to be hand-down-no-question picking Oregon. After all, it seems to be an all but forgone conclusion that they are going to put up 40+ points no matter who they are playing against; and while the defense got beat up by Stanford, it has been fairly strong all season.

But is it a sure thing that Oregon runs rampant on Arizona’s defense? It’s always difficult to actually try to look at numbers or matchups or anything else when breaking down Oregon’s offense; they just seem to shred through everything. But am I crazy for thinking that maybe, just maybe, Arizona’s very fast and talented defense might stand some chance in slowing them down a little bit?

Furthermore, why are we so quick to write off Arizona? This team did top both Stanford and Oregon State, so they have proven that they can play with the conference’s best. Nic Grigsby’s return should take some of the pressure off of Nick Foles as well.

And than there is the whole Arizona home-field advantage issue. I believe it is blown a bit out of proportion considering that both of Oregon’s losses came against excellent teams (and they are much better now than they were against Boise State), so it isn’t like the Ducks are as hopeless on the road as some are making them out to be. On the other hand, can we completely ignore that Oregon is 2-2 on the road (with the two wins coming over weak opponents in UCLA and UW), and Arizona is a perfect 5-0 at home (including wins over Central Michigan and Stanford)?

I’m not going to say that Arizona is the “better team”, but I will say they’ve got more of a chance than they are getting credit for in this one. Andrew Luck exploited Oregon’s beat up secondary, and I could see Nick Foles doing the same. It will take a near-perfect game on both sides of the ball to pull it off, but something tells me the ‘Cats have it in them.

Prediction: Arizona 41 – Oregon 38

Oregon Ducks 6-1 Overall (4-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 43 – Washington 19

Next Week’s Opponent: USC

I saw this as a potential trap game for Oregon, but the Ducks couldn’t have cared less. Chip Kelly’s squad put a whooping on the Huskies for the sixth straight season, utilizing excellent special teams, opportunistic defense, and the same creative misdirection on offense that we have come to expect.

QB Jeremiah Masoli may have been slowed a bit by the right knee injury as he prepared for this game, but it certainly didn’t show. Masoli ran the offense to perfection, throwing for 157 yards and 1 TD as well as running for 54 yards and two more scores. It wasn’t really Masoli’s numbers that impressed me, but rather how smoothly the offense ran with him back in the shotgun. Every ball fake was executed well, and Nick Holt’s D was constantly playing a guessing game as a result.

The main beneficiary of all of the misdirection was tailback LaMichael James, who has become a model of consistency in the Oregon backfield (154 yards rushing 2 TDs). James now has 735 yards and 6 TDs and will surely go over 1,000 yards; pretty impressive stuff for a freshman. It was good to see players like WR D.J. Davis (45 yards receiving, 1 TD) and TE David Paulson (59 receiving yards) contribute as well.

The play of Nick Aliotti’s defense continues to be one of the top storylines in the Pac-10 this season for me. I have been so impressed with how this unit has pressured and covered opposing offenses, and the job the D did on Jake Locker was outstanding (forced into throwing two key INTS).

The d-line is playing at an exceptionally high level right now, as are the linebackers, and the makeshift secondary held its own on Saturday against some talented receivers. The only negative from the game was an injury to yet another significant contributor at cornerback (Talmadge Jackson). Certainly, Cliff Harris appears to be a star in the making, but Jackson needs to make a quick recovery nonetheless.

Now comes the game we all want to see. Autzen Stadium will be ready, College Gameday will be ready, the USC Trojans will be ready, and I am now certain that Jeremiah Masoli and the Oregon Ducks will be ready as well. Should be a fun Halloween night in Eugene.

Oregon Ducks 5-1 Overall (3-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 24 – UCLA 10

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Coming into this season, there were a lot of questions surrounding Nick Aliotti’s defense. How would the d-line hold up, especially now that Nick Reed has moved on? Could the secondary overcome the losses of Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd? Then more recently, who would step up now that Walter Thurmond III and Willie Glasper are done for the season (not to mention the uncertain status of T.J. Ward)?

If the first three Pac-10 games are any indication, many of those questions have been answered. Oregon has been off-the-charts good on D so far in the conference, giving up three points to Cal, six to Wazzu and three to UCLA. The Ducks continue to prove they can win even when the offense isn’t its explosive self.

After a lackluster first half against the Bruins (UO trailed 3-0 at half), Kenjon Barner’s kickoff return TD ignited the Ducks. Oregon fans have to feel good about what Talmadge Jackson (INT return for TD), Cliff Harris, and the rest of the makeshift secondary was able to accomplish in Pasadena.

Of course the other story from Saturday was the continued excellence of RB LaMichael James. James has far surpassed the hype coming out of Eugene during spring and fall camp, and he is quickly developing into one of the best tailbacks in the Pac-10. His 152 rushing yards accounted for over half of the Ducks offensive output. James now has 581 rushing yards (3rd in conference) and four TDs on the season.

QB Nate Costa did not do much (9/17 82 yards, 1 TD 1 INT), but he didn’t have to. Costa’s job was to manage the game, and he did just that. If not for an incredibly athletic play by Bruins LB Akeem Ayers, Costa’s stat sheet would have looked a bit better, but all things considered, it was a solid effort.

The Ducks get a much needed bye week, and this is the perfect time for Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the injured to fully recuperate. Then it’s off to Seattle for a date with the hated Washington Huskies. One of the Pac-10’s most heated rivalries will finally have some restored meaning, and there should be an electric atmosphere at Husky Stadium in two weeks. If the Ducks escape Montlake with a victory, the Halloween showdown with USC is on at Autzen.