ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
Pasadena, California
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) VS. #7 Oregon Ducks (10-2)
Friday, January 1, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -4.0

Sam’s Take (58 – 23):

One of the most memorable seasons in Oregon football history will come to an end on Friday, as the Ducks are looking to win their first Rose Bowl since 1917. Chip Kelly’s squad has been through it all in 2009, and when you consider how the season started there is no doubt that Kelly and his staff deserve all the praise they have received.

As for The Ohio State University, this game represents yet another opportunity to prove its worth on the big stage. Clearly, marquee non-conference wins have been tough to come by for the Buckeyes, but its important to realize that Jim Tressel’s team is almost always involved in the BCS by seasons end (a commendable achievement). OSU will be making its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1997.

The most exciting match-up to watch for in this one will be the high-octane Ducks offense versus the highly underrated OSU defense. We have watched the Ducks run roughshod over opposing defenses all season, but could this Buckeye defense do what Boise State did all the way back in week one? A look at the numbers reveals a tale of two units that are very evenly matched. The Ducks head to Pasadena with the 7th best scoring offense in the country and the sixth best rushing attack, while the Bucks will counter with a D that ranks 5th nationally in total defense and 5th nationally in run defense. Should be fun right?

While I hold the OSU D in high regard, I don’t think Jim Heacock’s unit has faced a team like Oregon. Attempting to simulate Chip Kelly’s offense with a scout team is fruitless, as there is no way to truly recreate the misdirection. QB Jeremiah Masoli runs the zone read as well as any player in football, and I expect him to have more success this Friday. OSU’s defense is good enough to slow UO down at times, but I expect the quick strike Ducks to be locked in for most of the day.

The OSU offense has been inconsistent all season, and it doesn’t help that QB Terrelle Pryor is playing with a torn PCL (which he believes won’t be an issue). Still, the Buckeyes have a strong enough running game to make things interesting. If OSU can effectively run the ball with Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, Pryor may be able to connect on play action passes rather than using his feet to make plays.

There are plenty of reasons why Ohio State should be incredibly motivated for this game, but I just don’t think they are the better team. Oregon has played at an exceptionally high level in all three phases of the game for the majority of the season, and they have an overabundance of something that has given OSU trouble for the past three years… speed. I expect the Buckeyes to fight hard and make it a game, but I like the Ducks by six.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – Ohio State 24

Ohio State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR DeVier Posey – OSU will need big plays in the passing game, especially if the Oregon offense gets going early. Posey is a prototypical big play receiver with great speed and hands. He led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: DE/LB Kenny Rowe – Rowe has been a terror for opposing QBs all season, as he has racked up 8.5 sacks this season. Ohio State has not blocked players like Rowe very well over the last few years, and I expect his quickness and speed off the edge to disrupt Pryor throughout the game.

Dave’s Take (60 – 21):

No disrespect to THE Ohio State University, but in my honest opinion, the only way Oregon loses this game is if they beat themselves.

Thinking back to the Boise State game, it was clear that the Ducks offense wasn’t up to game speed. Granted, there is a big difference between a full offseason and a month or so, but this offense relies on having it’s timing down pat. If Oregon comes out clicking like they have been since late September, even OSU’s tough D will have trouble keeping the Ducks out of the high 30’s in scoring.

Ohio State has a great football team, but I believe Oregon will be too creative for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Nick Alliotti will be sure to dial up plenty of creative blitz packages to keep Terrelle Pryor (who won’t be at 100%) on his toes, and as I stated before, there just isn’t much to be done against Oregon’s offense, regardless of how strong your defensive unit may be.

Ohio State obviously has a massive chip on their shoulder, but that chip has been there for a few years now and hasn’t gotten them over the top. This year they play an Oregon team that fought their hearts out to win the Pac-10, so I doubt there will be any lack of motivation on their side.

Regardless of the game’s outcome, this bowl season will be chalked up as a disappointment. The losing record is obvious enough, but the ugly fashion in how the games were lost (other than Stanford, who fought hard without Andrew Luck) didn’t help lessen the blow. Furthermore, a win over Ohio State won’t get the Ducks the credit they deserve due to OSU’s recent bowl history; a loss, however, would make a bad bowl season for the Pac-10 a devestating one.

But I don’t think we’ll be seeing an Oregon loss this New Year’s Day. I expect the momentum of the regular season to carry over into a comfortable Ducks victory.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Ohio State 20

Oregon Ducks (8-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (6-3)
Saturday, November 21, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

The race to Pasadena stops in Tucson this week, and so will ESPN College Gameday. Both Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny in the Pac-10 title race, while the fate of Oregon State and Stanford will dramatically change depending on the outcome in this one.

The recent history between Oregon and Arizona leads me to believe we are in for another entertaining thriller. Oregon has lost two of their last three games against UA, and the ‘Cats have upset a Top 25 team at home in five straight seasons.

Stanford proved that it is possible to beat the Ducks in a shootout, as long as you have an excellent QB and a balanced offensive attack. Check and check for Arizona, as QB Nick Foles actually out dueled Andrew Luck earlier this season in a 43-38 UA win. RB Nic Grigsby is expected to play, and when healthy, he provides the ‘Cats with the same dynamic ability that LaMichael James brings to UO. Arizona also has a very capable defense with tremendous speed at all three levels (UA 18th nationally in total defense), so ‘Zona has all the ingredients necessary to pull the upset.

Having said all of that, I believe the Ducks will rise to the occasion. Unless Mike Stoops finds a way to clone QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaMichael James, there is no way the scout team will adequately prepare UA for that tremendous misdirection spread attack. I also think Nick Aliotti’s underrated defense will prevent UA’s quick passing attack from establishing a rhythm. Sonny Dykes offense is predicated on timing, but all of the receiver screens and quick slants can be thwarted by a disruptive defense (something the Ducks clearly have).

Chip Kelly’s team understands what is on the line this week, and I fully expect to see Oregon’s best effort of the season on Saturday. The Ducks have certainly had their struggles on the road this year, but I believe they are due for a big game away from Autzen.

I think Oregon wins a high-scoring affair at the Old Pueblo, which should setup one of the best Civil War games of all time.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Arizona 28

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Cliff Harris – Harris is one of the best young corners in the Pac-10, and the freshman will have to be at his best against a talented UA receiving corps.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR/KR Travis Cobb – I think Arizona will need to get something big out of the kick return game Saturday, and Cobb has already proven he can take it the distance (95 yard TD return two weeks ago).

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Honestly, I really don’t know what to do with myself in this game.

At first, I thought I was going to be hand-down-no-question picking Oregon. After all, it seems to be an all but forgone conclusion that they are going to put up 40+ points no matter who they are playing against; and while the defense got beat up by Stanford, it has been fairly strong all season.

But is it a sure thing that Oregon runs rampant on Arizona’s defense? It’s always difficult to actually try to look at numbers or matchups or anything else when breaking down Oregon’s offense; they just seem to shred through everything. But am I crazy for thinking that maybe, just maybe, Arizona’s very fast and talented defense might stand some chance in slowing them down a little bit?

Furthermore, why are we so quick to write off Arizona? This team did top both Stanford and Oregon State, so they have proven that they can play with the conference’s best. Nic Grigsby’s return should take some of the pressure off of Nick Foles as well.

And than there is the whole Arizona home-field advantage issue. I believe it is blown a bit out of proportion considering that both of Oregon’s losses came against excellent teams (and they are much better now than they were against Boise State), so it isn’t like the Ducks are as hopeless on the road as some are making them out to be. On the other hand, can we completely ignore that Oregon is 2-2 on the road (with the two wins coming over weak opponents in UCLA and UW), and Arizona is a perfect 5-0 at home (including wins over Central Michigan and Stanford)?

I’m not going to say that Arizona is the “better team”, but I will say they’ve got more of a chance than they are getting credit for in this one. Andrew Luck exploited Oregon’s beat up secondary, and I could see Nick Foles doing the same. It will take a near-perfect game on both sides of the ball to pull it off, but something tells me the ‘Cats have it in them.

Prediction: Arizona 41 – Oregon 38

Ding Dong’ the merry-oh, sing it high, sing it low.
Let them know
The Wicked Witch is dead!

For some reason, this song was running through my head as I watched Stanford pummel USC.

For Trojans fans, it has been a fantastic ride for the last seven years. So fantastic, in fact, that Trojan fans are completely guilty of taking it for granted. Every single one of them (myself, included).

Virtually every hiccup along the way has cost USC a trip to the National Championship, which in turn turned the Rose Bowl into a consolation prize of sorts. USC fans are always disappointed to “only” win the Pac-10 and “only” go to the Rose Bowl.

And that’s one of the reasons why fans around the conference have hated the USC Trojans and their fans for the better part of a decade now, and as Stanford drove the final nail into the coffin that Washington had opened and Oregon had closed, there is plenty of reason for the rest of the conference to celebrate.

A friend of mine asked me, “Dave, you know your Pac-10; Is USC done for? I mean, I know they are this season, but are they done for good?”

I’m surprised at how many people are living in the moment so badly that they are actually asking this question. NO, USC isn’t done for good. They still have one of the best coaches in the country and a never-ending stable of 4 and 5-star talent. They will be a serious contender for the Pac-10 title next year, as well as the years to come.

The beauty, though, is that they won’t be the only serious contender. 2009 will not mark the beginning of the end of USC as a football power; but it will mark the end of their stranglehold over the rest of the conference.

PAC-10 ON THE RISE – FIVE TEAMS IN THE TOP 25

Many college football fans are going to continue to be ignorant and disregard the Pac-10.

They will continue to laugh off the conference for no reason at all, and ignore evidence of its strength. They will continue to hold the ridiculous double standard that when SEC teams beat each other up (which has been non-existent this year), it is an indication of how strong the conference is, but when the Pac-10 beats itself up, it is an indication of how weak the conference is. How does this even begin to make sense?

Of course, if you are one of these people, you are scoffing and preparing your “LOL PAC-10 TEH SUX” comment. Good for you.

But for the more reasonable, it is hard to ignore that the Pac-10 is on the rise.

Perhaps the strongest evidence of the Pac-10’s strength is the amount of BCS ranked teams it has. Heading into this weekend, the Pac-10 currently has 20% of the teams in the BCS top 25 with five; #11 Oregon, #17 Stanford, #18 USC, #19 Oregon State, and #25 California. The ACC and Big 10 each have four, the SEC, Big East, and Mountain West have three, the Big 12 has two, and the WAC has one.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Pac-10 is the only conference that schedules only three out of conference games. They actually have to play a true round robin, and don’t have the opportunity to dodge big conference opponents or schedule an extra softy like other teams do.

TEAM-BY-TEAM, EVERYONE IS GETTING BETTER

What impresses me most about the Pac-10 this season is that as great and deep as the conference has proven to be this season, from the looks of it, it is only going to get better.

1-6:

Oregon – Still in control of their own destiny atop the Pac-10, Oregon has steam-rolled through most of their opponents, including USC and Cal. Their two losses have come against very good ranked opponents; and they’d love to have the Boise State game back as that continues to look more and more like an anomaly. The Mike Belotti to Chip Kelly transition was seamless, and with a fantastic and innovative system in place on both sides of the ball, Oregon will be a power for years to come. They have both Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James returning next year, and this was the year for the offensive and defensive lines to rebuild; both should be even stronger in 2010.

Stanford – Their late surge has given them back-to-back wins over conference powerhouses in Oregon and USC as well as a chance of a trip to the Rose Bowl if the cards fall right. Jim Harbaugh has turned this team around in a hurry, and they have taken on his personality as a hard-nosed physical team that never stops working. This was supposed to be the year to break in Andrew Luck, but he has already emerged as a star at the quarterback position. He will likely be even better next season, and Harbaugh’s excellent ability to recruit will be even easier after the display the Cardinal have put on over the last few weeks.

Oregon State – Year in and year out, Mike Riley churns out one of the most consistently strong teams in the Pac-10. The Beavers have finished in the Top 25 for three straight years, and from the looks of it will keep that streak alive here in 2009. Their excellent post-September play (as always) has put them in a position to take at least a share of the Pac-10 title with a win over their rival Ducks. Mike Riley is one of the best in the country at recruiting and developing players into his system, and there is no reason to believe the Beavers won’t continue to be a threat to make noise in the conference for as long as he’s at the helm.

Arizona – Hard to believe Mike Stoops was on the hot seat not too long ago. With the help of Sonny Dykes and the emergence of Nick Foles at QB, the Wildcats have an electrifying offense. They also have an extremely fast and talented defensive unit. With Oregon and USC still ahead, the path to the Rose Bowl is a difficult one, but it isn’t out of the question. And even if the ‘Cats do fall short this season, the valuable experience that they are gaining from playing meaningful conference games in November will pay huge dividends in creating a championship atmosphere next year and beyond.

USC – Remarkably, the once invincible Trojans find themselves staring at a potential Poinsettia or Emerald Bowl berth. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Trojans with an inexperienced quarterback and a defense that was almost entirely turned over from last season, but we refused to believe that it would be. Tons of injuries on offense didn’t help, either. But while the Trojans may be down and out this year, they will be right back in the thick of things next year. And for the first time in seven years, they won’t have the target on their back. It should be a lot of fun to see how Pete Carroll rallies the troops next season and beyond now that USC’s aura of invincibility is gone.

Cal – Hard to consider this year anything but a disappointment considering the high hopes coming in. On paper, Cal was right up there with USC among the most talented teams in the country. Jeff Tedford has done an outstanding job recruiting, and while the Bears haven’t been able to get over the hump yet, they seem to be an annual threat to do so. Every year we hype Cal up as one of the conference’s top teams and they end up falling short; they strike me as one of those teams that as soon as we all decide to finally count them out, that will be when it all comes together and they catch everyone off guard.

7-9:

UCLA – The fact that UCLA is the 7th or 8th best team in this conference is about as good of an indicator of the Pac-10’s strength as anything else. Yes, they have five losses; but all to the teams listed above, proving only that they aren’t quite in that tier yet. The Bruins did go into Tennessee with a redshirt freshman quarterback and take that game, and they also dominated what has turned out to be a pretty decent Kansas State team that beat Kansas a few weeks ago. Rick Neuheisel has been stockpiling great young talent, and this team is clearly going in the right direction; they just need to put it all together. A win over Arizona State or USC would make them bowl eligible, too.

Arizona State – Possessing arguably the best defense in the Pac-10, ASU has had a frustrating year due in large part to their inability to get anything going on offense. It is pretty clear that they are only a playmaker or two on offense away from making the jump into the category above. Even without one, Georgia, Cal, and USC were all near-misses that could have easily gone the Sun Devils’ way. If this team can get better play from the offensive line and quarterback next year, both very realistic possibilities, near misses will start turning into wins.

Washington – Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Huskies have a long way to go to get back to respectability. That said, they have the right man to get them there in Steve Sarkisian. This has been made evident by their hard work and no-quit attitude, which helped them play a respectable game against LSU and pull off huge upsets over USC and Arizona. As Coach Sark brings in more talent, the Huskies should continue to rise, and until then they will likely continue to be a thorn in the side of the conferences top dogs.

10:

Washington State – And than there’s the Cougars. While WSU has made a few strides, they are hard to notice or get excited about with how rapidly the rest of the conference is rising. The situation looks pretty dire in Pullman, but on the bright side, there really isn’t anywhere to go but up from here.



THE WRAP UP

Looking at this conference from top to bottom, how can you deny its strength? Every single team (with perhaps the exception of WSU) appears to be either getting better or at the very least maintaining their competitive spot. From the looks of things, the Pac-10 is going to be a flat-out dogfight of excellent teams with top-flight talent for years to come.

Isn’t that what earned the SEC the reputation of being the nation’s best conference?

It’s about time to drop the bias.

Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5) vs. Oregon Ducks (7-2)
Saturday, November 14, 7:20 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -18.0

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

Despite the disappointing loss in Palo Alto, Oregon is still in control of the Pac-10 race. The Ducks are big favorites this week and will likely be favored in their final two games (albeit by smaller margins), so the path to Pasadena is still clear. But Oregon’s continuing push towards the Rose Bowl will be only part of the story this Saturday in Eugene.

After weeks of anticipation, this game marks the return of RB LeGarrette Blount. Will Chip Kelly insert him into the lineup at some point Saturday? I suppose its possible, but Kelly made it very clear that “LaMichael James is our running back”.

It’s safe to assume that Nick Aliotti will not lose nearly as much sleep preparing for the Sun Devils as he did trying to scheme for Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck and the potent Cardinal attack. The Ducks D will be looking to prove that last week was an aberration, and I expect the unit to succeed.

Oregon has feasted on opposing QBs all season (16th nationally in sacks), and now a true freshman enters Autzen for his first career start. While ASU QB Brock Osweiler has a very bright future in the Pac-10, this game figures to be nothing more than learning experience for the 6-8 signal caller.

Obviously Arizona State has an excellent defensive front seven, but the secondary is in shambles. I expect QB Jeremiah Masoli to pile up yards through the air all night, as the Devils simply don’t have enough cornerbacks left on the roster to make much of a difference. ASU has always had trouble defending the Ducks misdirection spread attack, and I expect that trend to continue. Once the UO passing game gets going, Masoli and James should find plenty of running space against a defense that frequently overpursues.

I expect Oregon to cruise this week, and then it’s off to the Old Pueblo for what could be the Pac-10 game of the year.

Prediction: Oregon 37 – Arizona State 14

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Deveron Carr - Carr is one of the new ASU cornerbacks that must step up for the rest of the season. He played well against USC, and must now prove that he can be consistent.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Kenny Rowe - The always active Rowe leads the Ducks with seven sacks this season, and he should thrive against an underwhelming ASU o-line.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

Plenty of teams in the Pac-10 benefited from Stanford’s upset win over Oregon, but ASU was not one of them. Had Oregon topped Stanford, the Sun Devils may have caught the Ducks looking ahead to the showdown @Arizona; but with the rude awakening at the hand of the Cardinal, there is little doubt that the Ducks will be prepared for this Saturday’s game.

Even if they had been unprepared, unlike Stanford, Arizona State’s offense isn’t going to pile up a ton of yards and points and put you in a hole early. The Ducks have scored 42 or more points in five straight games with Jeremiah Masoli at the helm, and have proven that the Boise State game was a fluke; if you are going to beat this team, you are going to have to score a ton of points.

Oregon may or may not get to the 42 mark this week, but there isn’t much doubt that the Sun Devils will need to score into the 30s to even have a chance. Considering they haven’t done so since week two against UL Monroe, and they are starting a true freshman quarterback against a very angry team in one of the toughest places to play in the conference?

I don’t like ASU’s chances.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Arizona State 17

Oregon Ducks (7-1) vs. Stanford Cardinal (5-3)
Saturday, November 7, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (39- 15):

The two most prolific rushing attacks in the Pac-10 square off in Palo Alto this Saturday, but the offensive philosophies of these teams couldn’t be more different. Chip Kelly’s club likes to confuse and humiliate opposing defenses, while Jim Harbaugh’s squad just likes to run them over. If styles make fights, we should have a good one on Saturday.

Are the Ducks still flying high after their epic thrashing of the Trojans? If so, Stanford will make them pay just as they did the Washington Huskies, but personally, I don’t get the feeling that Chip Kelly will let that happen. Why? Because of the way Oregon practices. The Ducks play fast and furious even when they are going up against the scout team, and that kind of preparation usually allows a team to become letdown-proof. Don’t get me wrong, Stanford is a VERY good football team, but a strong argument could be made that the Ducks are the BEST football team in America right now.

Here is what we know: Oregon is tremendous on offense (#8 nationally in rush offense, #9 scoring offense) AND defense (#20 nationally in total defense) AND special teams (#3 nationally on kickoff returns). Stanford on the other hand is tremendous on offense (#20 nationally in total offense), AND special teams (#1 nationally on kickoff returns), but mediocre on defense (#67 nationally in total defense).

Quite simply, I believe the difference in the game will be the Stanford defense. Oregon should be able to score at will on a Cardinal D that lacks lateral speed, while the Ducks D should be able to put up a very good fight against RB Toby Gerhart, QB Andrew Luck and the rest of the potent Stanford attack.

Bottom line: I believe the dream season (since Sept. 3rd of course) will continue for the Ducks, as they come away with a big road win on the Farm.

Prediction: Oregon 35 – Stanford 23

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Casey Matthews - Gap control is the name of the game when facing Stanford’s power running game, and Matthews will be a key to containing #7 in red.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Owen Marecic - I believe Marecic is the most underrated player in the Pac-10. Seriously. He is as good a lead blocker as you will find in college football, and he is also capable of catching the ball out of the backfield.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

No disrespect to the Stanford Cardinals (who have one of the best and hardest working teams in the Pac-10), but this game starts and ends with the Oregon Ducks.

After what we saw last week, it looks to me that if Oregon is at their best, there isn’t a team in the nation that can beat them. Yes, I said it, any team in the nation. USC didn’t have a single turnover in the game (until an interception on the very last play of the game), and still got completely manhandled. USC! Oregon was so strong and fast on both sides of the ball that they looked untouchable.

Stanford could be a very dangerous trap for this team. Toby Gerhart is one of the best backs in the conference and is the most powerful. Andrew Luck has incredible poise for a redshirt freshman, and the passing attack has been working this year to compliment Gerhart’s rushing attack. If Oregon partied a little too hard this week and let themselves start to believe that they are the best and they are the Pac-10 champs, they could be in for a very rude awakening this week.

But I don’t see that happening. The team already had an extremely humbling experience this season (@Boise State), and I think Chip Kelly will get the message to his players that nothing short of their best effort will be acceptable this week. With the way the defense is swarming and Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James are clicking on offense, I can’t go against this team.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Stanford 24

Oregon Ducks 7-1 Overall (5-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 47 – USC 20

Next Week’s Opponent: @Stanford

I have been passionately following the Pac-10 conference for the last nine years, which coincides with the length of Pete Carroll’s tenure at USC thus far. In these last nine years, I have watched a lot of big games take place within the conference, and ‘SC has been involved in most of them.

After each game, a familiar thing would almost always happen: “Fight On” would be stuck in my head the next day. No matter how bad I fought it, I could never shake that familiar Trojan fight song playing over and over. Even an occasional USC loss (i.e. OSU 2006, 2008, Oregon, 2007) would not be enough to counteract the strong effect. After all, that band makes its presence felt no matter the venue and the Trojans have been in EVERY game until the very last play.

So what is the formula for ridding yourself of a “Fight On” hangover? Replace one fight song with another. After Saturday’s Halloween Trojan Massacre at Autzen, I subconsciously began to hum “Mighty Oregon” for the following 24 hours. It was a feeling that I never believed would be possible, but it happened because the often overpowering ‘SC band had basically been rendered useless.

Needless to say, Oregon’s win over ‘SC was quite the spectacle. The stats are truly unbelievable: 47 points (most allowed by USC since 1996), 613 yards of total offense for UO (most an ‘SC D has allowed since 1946). The dynamic duo of Jeremiah Masoli (222 passing yards 1 TD, 164 rushing yards 1 TD) and LaMichael James (183 rushing yards 1 TD) has never looked better, but I may have been even more impressed by an o-line that physically punished the ‘SC front seven. Four of the Trojans top six tacklers were defensive backs, and I believe that is one of the most telling stats of the game.

The other telling stat? USC only turned the ball over one time (at the very end of the game), which is a clear indicator of how thoroughly the Ducks dominated this one.

I also think Nick Aliotti deserves a ton of praise for Saturday’s outcome. Even though the UO offense is making all of the headlines (and deservedly so), the Ducks D attacked downhill all night and never allowed USC to get into a consistent rhythm.

While this is certainly a time to celebrate for Chip Kelly’s club, the party can’t last very long. Oregon travels to Palo Alto to face a very good Stanford team, and critical showdowns at Arizona (Pac-10 title game?) and in the Civil War finale still loom. The Ducks have a lead in the Pac-10, but they have by no means clinched the conference yet. Still, if Saturday is any indication of what is to come, the 2009 season will be one for the ages.

USC Trojans (6-1) vs. Oregon Ducks (6-1)
Saturday, October 31, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -3.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (36 – 14):

With all due respect to the Arizona Wildcats, the Pac-10 champion will most likely be decided in Eugene this Saturday. In fact, there is still a chance that the winner of this game will be playing in Pasadena come January, and not for the Rose Bowl. Who would have thought this kind of scenario would be possible for either school about a month ago?

But here we are. College GameDay will be on hand for a potential Halloween classic at Autzen with BCS implications.

The Oregon Ducks enter Saturday’s game playing the best football of any team in the Pac-10. Chip Kelly’s explosive offense can score at any moment and Nick Aliotti’s defense has been wreaking havoc all season. Throw in superb special teams, and it’s easy to see why the Ducks are currently alone atop the Pac-10 standings.

While QB Jeremiah Masoli still isn’t 100%, he looked great against Washington and chances are he will be close to full speed by Saturday night. The Ducks will certainly look to utilize Masoli’s mobility against USC, as the Trojans have historically had trouble with dual-threat QBs. If Masoli can get the ‘SC defense to bite on a few of his well-orchestrated ball fakes, the field could open up for RB LaMichael James. ‘Quizz Rodgers proved that the Trojans are not impenetrable, so it should be interesting to see how Oregon’s rushing attack fares against the ‘SC D.

USC is finding its rhythm on offense at the perfect time. The Trojans have opened up the playbook more in the last three games (@ CAL, @ ND, OSU), which has allowed QB Matt Barkley to make some big plays in the vertical passing game. The ‘SC offense will be Oregon’s biggest test of the season, and I am most interested to see how the Ducks pass rush performs against the ultra-sturdy Trojan o-line. ‘SC will probably try to establish the run right away with RB Allen Bradford and RB Joe McKnight, and if they get going, look for big plays to be available for Barkley off of play action fakes (it wouldn’t surprise me to see Ronald Johnson get a deep ball thrown his way early).

Oregon has all of the ingredients to beat ‘SC this Saturday, and as we all know, the Ducks play at another level at Autzen. In many ways, I get the same feeling about this game that I did in 2007 when Oregon flat out beat the Trojans. But even with all of that said, I am going with USC for one major reason: Pete Carroll. Under Carroll, the Trojans have won this conference SEVEN straight times, and he knows how to prepare his team better than any coach in America when the stakes are highest. Until a Pac-10 team can beat ‘SC when it matters most, I cannot pick against them.

Prediction: USC 31 – Oregon 28

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Blake Ayles - Anthony McCoy’s status is still up in the air, so Ayles could be a big part of the passing attack this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Jamere Holland - This game has added significance for Holland (transferred from ‘SC), and I’m sure the speedy wideout will be looking to make a big impact.

Dave’s Take (39 – 11):

How do you pick a side in such an evenly matched clash of Pac-10 superpowers? My inner dialogue is going something like this;

Oregon looks to be the team playing at a higher level right now, especially on defense.

True, but Oregon hasn’t faced an offensive line this strong yet. This could be the week that the pass rush gets slowed down, and those injuries in the secondary finally catch up to the Ducks.

Fair enough, but Oregon also has home field advantage, and we all know how crazy Autzen can get, especially when it comes to big games.

Yes, bet USC has already proven that they can beat tough teams on the road, they’ve beaten Ohio State, Cal, and Notre Dame! Not to mention, USC’s record against ranked opponents since October 19th, 2002 is a remarkable 32-2! Pete Carroll’s squads never lose the big game.

Never, except for those two times. Let’s see, Texas comes to mind… and oh, that’s right, THIS team, two years ago. The Ducks have beaten the Trojans 6 of the last 11 times they’ve played!

Yeah, but the Trojans have beaten the Ducks 4 of the last 5 times they’ve played!

And I go on like this for hours. The only conclusion I ever seem to come to is that this is going to be one hell of a game.

But alas, I am forced to make a decision, as there are no ties in college football. My gut says USC, but I think that’s just from years and years of dominance conditioning me to feel that way. The Ducks have looked more well-rounded, and they’ve got home field advantage. They’ve earned the respect.

Prediction: Oregon 26 – USC 24

Oregon Ducks 6-1 Overall (4-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 43 – Washington 19

Next Week’s Opponent: USC

I saw this as a potential trap game for Oregon, but the Ducks couldn’t have cared less. Chip Kelly’s squad put a whooping on the Huskies for the sixth straight season, utilizing excellent special teams, opportunistic defense, and the same creative misdirection on offense that we have come to expect.

QB Jeremiah Masoli may have been slowed a bit by the right knee injury as he prepared for this game, but it certainly didn’t show. Masoli ran the offense to perfection, throwing for 157 yards and 1 TD as well as running for 54 yards and two more scores. It wasn’t really Masoli’s numbers that impressed me, but rather how smoothly the offense ran with him back in the shotgun. Every ball fake was executed well, and Nick Holt’s D was constantly playing a guessing game as a result.

The main beneficiary of all of the misdirection was tailback LaMichael James, who has become a model of consistency in the Oregon backfield (154 yards rushing 2 TDs). James now has 735 yards and 6 TDs and will surely go over 1,000 yards; pretty impressive stuff for a freshman. It was good to see players like WR D.J. Davis (45 yards receiving, 1 TD) and TE David Paulson (59 receiving yards) contribute as well.

The play of Nick Aliotti’s defense continues to be one of the top storylines in the Pac-10 this season for me. I have been so impressed with how this unit has pressured and covered opposing offenses, and the job the D did on Jake Locker was outstanding (forced into throwing two key INTS).

The d-line is playing at an exceptionally high level right now, as are the linebackers, and the makeshift secondary held its own on Saturday against some talented receivers. The only negative from the game was an injury to yet another significant contributor at cornerback (Talmadge Jackson). Certainly, Cliff Harris appears to be a star in the making, but Jackson needs to make a quick recovery nonetheless.

Now comes the game we all want to see. Autzen Stadium will be ready, College Gameday will be ready, the USC Trojans will be ready, and I am now certain that Jeremiah Masoli and the Oregon Ducks will be ready as well. Should be a fun Halloween night in Eugene.

Oregon Ducks (5-1) vs. Washington Huskies (3-4)
Saturday, October 24, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -10.0

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

The Ducks and Huskies have formed one of the Pac-10’s fiercest rivalries over the years, but when is the last time there was any buzz surrounding this game? While Washington holds a significant lead in the all-time series (58-38-5), the Ducks have obliterated U-Dub in five straight meetings, making the usually nasty rivalry nothing more than an afterthought.

I believe this year will be different. The buzz is back in this series, and despite Washington’s best effort to throw away every bit of momentum they have accumulated this season (that 50-yard TD bomb from Danny Sullivan still seems surreal), I believe coach Sark, Jake Locker and an extra-fiery Nick Holt will have the Dawgs ready to play at home.

Having said all of that, I also think Oregon will come ready to play. QB Jeremiah Masoli may not be 100%, but all indications are that he will start. Chip Kelly may limit the playbook a bit this week, especially considering the Ducks need to have a healthy Masoli for the ‘SC game. I therefore expect to see a heavy dose of RB LaMichael James, as this UW defense has been suspect against the run (86th in nation) and James has already proven he can tear through a pretty solid D (UCLA) even without the threat of a passing game. The Huskies have been tremendous defensively in the red zone, but I still expect Chip Kelly’s squad to score a few times inside the 20-yard line.

The most compelling match up in this game involves QB Jake Locker and the UW offense going up against an Oregon D that is playing as well as any in the Pac-10 (and possibly the country). The Ducks have disrupted opposing QBs all season (even Boise’s Kellen Moore), but Locker will be the unit’s biggest test of the season thus far.

I am really looking forward to this game, and I believe it has a chance to be the most exciting of the week in the Pac-10. The Huskies have the ingredients to pull the off the upset this year, but I really think Oregon is on a mission. Chip Kelly has the Ducks locked in right now, and I think they will do just enough to escape a very hostile environment with a win.

Prediction: Oregon 31 – Washington 27

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Talmadge Jackson III - Jackson had a game to remember against UCLA, and he will be one of the keys to containing the talented UW receivers.

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Chris Polk - If Polk can hit a few big runs early, the entire offense will open up for Jake Locker to work his magic.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

You can’t deny that there is just something special about when Washington plays at home this year. Their 3-1 record includes thrilling wins over ranked USC and Arizona, and their only loss came in a well-played game against LSU. Upsetting another major conference player is a serious possibility this Saturday.

With that said, I honestly don’t think UW will be able to keep up this week. Oregon is clicking in all three facets of the game; special teams has been great, the defense has been insanely strong since conference play has started, and the offense is always a major threat. Washington has been shredded by the run in Pac-10 play, and it is hard to see them bucking that trend against LaMichael James and the nation’s 16th best rushing attack (202.7 yards per game).

Washington’s offense has plenty of talent, and Jake Locker and Chris Polk have really emerged as stars, but they are only averaging 25.4 points per game (76th in the nation). Good defenses have been able to limit Washington’s offensive output, and the Ducks shut-down defense should be able to do the same.

Unless Jeremiah Masoli reverts back to his early-season struggles and makes a ton of mistakes (which Washington has proven, especially at home, that they can capitalize on), I see Oregon taking the crowd out of this game early and heading into next week’s Halloween showdown with ‘SC in top form.

Prediction: Oregon 31 – Washington 17

Oregon Ducks (4-1) vs. UCLA Bruins (3-1)
Saturday, October 10, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -3.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (25 – 12):

Oregon has been firing on all cylinders for the last two weeks, but this Saturday’s game is not taking place in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. Remember the last time Oregon played a road game?

The Ducks may have to overcome more than just a rowdy Rose Bowl crowd, as it remains to be seen if QB Jeremiah Masoli can play Saturday. Nate Costa certainly has the tools to be successful, but can he lead the Ducks to a meaningful win in his first career start (especially on the road)? The Ducks will also be without CB Willie Glasper, who was supposed to fill the void left by Walter Thurmond III. Now the Ducks are without their two best corners for the rest of the season, and Norm Chow will likely test the secondary early in the game.

Chow may have the services of starting QB Kevin Prince (broken jaw), who has recently resumed practicing with the first team offense. Prince can make all of the deep throws that Kevin Craft can’t, which means there should be plenty of opportunities for the Bruin receivers against the inexperienced Oregon corners.

I believe there are many reasons to pick the upset here, but something tells me Oregon will find a way. Costa understands Chip Kelly’s system well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him flourish (just as LaMichael James has been great at RB in place of Blount). The UCLA run defense is good, but Stanford proved that it is not impenetrable. I also love the way Oregon’s defensive front seven is playing, so Prince (or Craft) may be in for a very long day if the pass rush looks like it has over the past couple of weeks.

I see the resilient Ducks pulling this one out in Pasadena.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – UCLA 24

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson – Whether Costa or Masoli plays Saturday; #83 should be a feature part of the passing game.

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Korey Bosworth - Bosworth will be a key to disrupting the timing of Oregon’s misdirection spread attack.

Dave’s Take (29 – 8):

For the Halloween matchup between the USC Trojans and the Oregon Ducks to be the Pac-10 Game of the Year that it is currently looking like it might be, both teams are going to have to actually get there without anymore missteps; and the first challenge for the Ducks comes this Saturday in UCLA.

UCLA’s generally stout defense was exposed last Saturday, especially on the ground; playing against Toby Gerhart can do that to defenses. While there isn’t a whole lot of doubt that the Bruins defense is strong, Luck and Gerhart’s big days are definitely cause for concern; how will the D hold up against stronger offenses? San Diego State, Kansas State, and even Tennessee (with Crompton at the helm) didn’t really give us a good indication.

Oregon’s offense has found its groove, but now Jeremiah Masoli’s status is in question, and a defense like UCLA’s on the road isn’t the first start I want to see Nate Costa get as a Ducks fan. Heading back on the road for the first time in over a month is hard enough; doing so completely demolished by injuries (Glasper, Thurmond III) is even worse.

With the return of Kevin Prince and home field advantage, the Bruins will be extremely focused and geared up for the upset. Beating Oregon would help them avoid falling to 0-2 in the conference and would also establish their presence in the conference.

Even with the injuries, I think Oregon has what it takes to win this game. What it really comes down to is mental toughness, something the Ducks didn’t show a whole lot of the last time they headed out on the road. I’m going to trust them to get the job done this time around; but it’ll come down to the wire.

Prediction: Oregon 27 – UCLA 23