Oregon Ducks (7-1) vs. Stanford Cardinal (5-3)
Saturday, November 7, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (39- 15):

The two most prolific rushing attacks in the Pac-10 square off in Palo Alto this Saturday, but the offensive philosophies of these teams couldn’t be more different. Chip Kelly’s club likes to confuse and humiliate opposing defenses, while Jim Harbaugh’s squad just likes to run them over. If styles make fights, we should have a good one on Saturday.

Are the Ducks still flying high after their epic thrashing of the Trojans? If so, Stanford will make them pay just as they did the Washington Huskies, but personally, I don’t get the feeling that Chip Kelly will let that happen. Why? Because of the way Oregon practices. The Ducks play fast and furious even when they are going up against the scout team, and that kind of preparation usually allows a team to become letdown-proof. Don’t get me wrong, Stanford is a VERY good football team, but a strong argument could be made that the Ducks are the BEST football team in America right now.

Here is what we know: Oregon is tremendous on offense (#8 nationally in rush offense, #9 scoring offense) AND defense (#20 nationally in total defense) AND special teams (#3 nationally on kickoff returns). Stanford on the other hand is tremendous on offense (#20 nationally in total offense), AND special teams (#1 nationally on kickoff returns), but mediocre on defense (#67 nationally in total defense).

Quite simply, I believe the difference in the game will be the Stanford defense. Oregon should be able to score at will on a Cardinal D that lacks lateral speed, while the Ducks D should be able to put up a very good fight against RB Toby Gerhart, QB Andrew Luck and the rest of the potent Stanford attack.

Bottom line: I believe the dream season (since Sept. 3rd of course) will continue for the Ducks, as they come away with a big road win on the Farm.

Prediction: Oregon 35 – Stanford 23

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Casey Matthews - Gap control is the name of the game when facing Stanford’s power running game, and Matthews will be a key to containing #7 in red.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Owen Marecic - I believe Marecic is the most underrated player in the Pac-10. Seriously. He is as good a lead blocker as you will find in college football, and he is also capable of catching the ball out of the backfield.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

No disrespect to the Stanford Cardinals (who have one of the best and hardest working teams in the Pac-10), but this game starts and ends with the Oregon Ducks.

After what we saw last week, it looks to me that if Oregon is at their best, there isn’t a team in the nation that can beat them. Yes, I said it, any team in the nation. USC didn’t have a single turnover in the game (until an interception on the very last play of the game), and still got completely manhandled. USC! Oregon was so strong and fast on both sides of the ball that they looked untouchable.

Stanford could be a very dangerous trap for this team. Toby Gerhart is one of the best backs in the conference and is the most powerful. Andrew Luck has incredible poise for a redshirt freshman, and the passing attack has been working this year to compliment Gerhart’s rushing attack. If Oregon partied a little too hard this week and let themselves start to believe that they are the best and they are the Pac-10 champs, they could be in for a very rude awakening this week.

But I don’t see that happening. The team already had an extremely humbling experience this season (@Boise State), and I think Chip Kelly will get the message to his players that nothing short of their best effort will be acceptable this week. With the way the defense is swarming and Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James are clicking on offense, I can’t go against this team.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Stanford 24

Cal Bears (3-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (2-1)
Saturday, September 26, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -7.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (20 – 7):

Before the 2009 college football season started, Pac-10 fans and pundits alike circled this game with great anticipation, as it was believed to be the contest that decided USC’s main challenger in the conference.

But now some are calling this a trap game for Cal?

Sure, Oregon lost to Boise State in disappointing fashion and the Ducks passing offense continues to be a work in progress (to put it nicely), but I have a hard time calling this a trap game for the Bears. In fact, I believe Cal will have to play its best game of the season to win in Eugene.

Having said that, I am going with the Bears. As much as I believe in the power of Autzen, the continued emergence of exciting freshman tailback LaMichael James, and the playmaking ability of Walter Thurmond III (as a defender and return man), I just don’t see enough balance on offense. I like QB Jeremiah Masoli, but he must prove that he can be a reliable passer soon because the fan base is running out of patience.

Masoli is a playmaker (as he has shown on the ground this year), but he is also a liability. As a result, the Ducks have somehow managed to rank dead last in passing and total offense in the conference so far, and that won’t cut it Saturday. Unless Masoli (or another QB) can get the passing game going, I expect Cal’s sturdy D to tee off on the run.

Jahvid Best is obviously rolling right now, but I believe the main difference in this 2009 Cal team and the one from last year is the play of QB Kevin Riley. While Masoli has struggled, Riley has looked razor sharp (698 yards passing, 5 TDs, 0 INTS), and he is the main reason I think the Bears offense will prevail against a game Ducks D.

I believe this will be a highly entertaining game with a ton of big plays in all three phases of the game, but ultimately, I see Cal winning its fourth straight in the series.

Prediction: Cal 35 – Oregon 24

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Jeremy Ross - Ross is really starting to come on strong, and his big-play ability should help offset the loss of Nyan Boateng.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Casey Matthews - His excellent instincts, run-stopping skills, and blitzing ability will be put to the test this weekend by a potent offense.

Dave’s Take (20 – 7):

Public perception is a funny thing.

Don’t get me wrong here, either; I think Cal is deserving of all of the respect they have been garnering, and I think Oregon deserves a lot of the criticism they have received, too.

Cal heads into Autzen a substantial favorite, and would obviously be an even bigger favorite if this game were being played at a neutral site. And they should be; they are a complete team that doesn’t seem to have any noticeable weaknesses. With both Kevin Riley and Jahvid Best playing at a high level, the offense is a lethal balanced attack, and the defense has been strong at all three levels.

But has Cal really proven anything yet? The first game against Maryland was a good old fashioned blowout, a game that Cal completely dominated from start to finish. Since then, Maryland was pushed to the limits against Division I-AA James Madison, needing overtime to win the game 38-35. The following week they hosted Middle Tennessee and lost 32-31 at home. Maryland just doesn’t have the look of a quality football team.

Eastern Washington of course is a Division I-AA team, and a blowout was expected and delivered. While the win over Minnesota in a rowdy TCF Bank Stadium was impressive, Minnesota did put up 21 points; the same output that they had against Syracuse (23) and Air Force (20). The game was also tied heading into the fourth quarter before Cal eventually pulled away.

Again, I’m not trying to downplay Cal’s achievements thus far; they look like the team to beat in the Pac-10 this year. All I’m saying is, if you’d have told me before the season started that Oregon was going to lose by 11 to a Top 10 Boise State team, outshoot Purdue, and end Utah’s 16-game winning streak, I wouldn’t have expected no one to be giving them a chance this Saturday.

Because college football is just that kind of game, I am giving them a chance. The defense is going to have to continue coming up with huge plays against an offense that doesn’t make many mistakes, and Jeremiah Masoli is going to have to be substantially better than what he has been to date. It will take a near-perfect game to beat a superior Cal squad, but with almost everyone counting them out, I think they find a way.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Cal 31

Part of the blame for the strange stat line can be placed on the explosive Oregon offense, which overwhelmed opponents early and often. Because of that, many opposing offenses had to throw the ball more frequently than normal just to stay in the game. The quick-burst scoring also led to a low time of possession, which meant the defense was spending most of the game on the field.

Although the Ducks are quite comfortable playing any team in a shootout, the D will need to tighten up a bit for Oregon to reach it’s true potential as a championship level football team.

Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has a very talented group returning in 2009, with all-conference caliber playmakers at all three levels. The most exciting unit may be at the second level, where an extremely athletic group of linebackers should wreak havoc all season long. Many believe this could be the program’s best group of LBs in years, led by two outstanding juniors.

Spencer Paysinger tries to strip the ball while making the tackle

Junior Spencer Paysinger exploded onto the Pac-10 scene during a breakout sophomore campaign in 2008. He finished the season with 95 tackles (2nd on team), 12 tackles for loss (4th on team), two sacks, two interceptions (one for a TD in the Civil War), and six pass breakups. Rivals.com named Paysinger second-team All-Pac 10 in 2008, and he will enter this season on a variety of pre-season All-Conference teams.

At 6-3 216 pounds, Paysinger combines a rangy frame with excellent speed and athleticism. He is the quintessential playmaking linebacker, possessing an innate sense of where to be on any given play. He’s great against the run, but can also drop into coverage as naturally as a defensive back, showing great fluidity in his motion.

Paysinger’s defensive skill set is especially remarkable considering he was known as a standout receiver in high school. Although the Beverly Hills High School (CA) product was not heavily recruited (2-stars from Rivals and Scout), he showcased his promising ability during his redshirt season in 2006 by garnering scout team player of the week honors six separate times throughout the season on defense and special teams.

Despite his relatively light playing weight (216), he is one of the strongest players on the defense (Oregon Iron Club Member, combined 1,135 pounds on clean, squat, and bench lifts according to team reports).

The Los Angeles (CA) native should continue to be a force on the weakside, and will also serve as a leader on defense in 2009.

Next to Paysinger in the middle will be junior Casey Matthews. Last year, Matthews broke fall camp behind John Bacon, the senior incumbent and mainstay for two years at MLB. But by the seventh game of the season it became evident that the younger Matthews was playing at a much higher level and from that point on the job belonged to him. He finished an exceptional sophomore campaign with 67 tackles (6th on team), 13 tackles for loss (3rd on team), and two sacks.

Matthews certainly has the pedigree to achieve even more for the Ducks in 2009, as he comes from a long line of successful football players that dates back to his grandfather Clay Sr. (played at Georgia Tech) and includes his father Clay Jr. (USC, 4-time Pro-Bowler in NFL), his uncle Bruce (USC, 14-time Pro-Bowler in NFL) and his brother Clay (USC, 1st Round Pick in NFL Draft).

At 6-2 235 pounds, Matthews combines extremely sound fundamentals with a tenacious motor that never stops running. He is a run-stopping specialist who always seems to take the quickest path to the ball carrier. Matthews routinely shoots the gap, and can blow up an offensive play all by himself. More than anything, he is an instinctive player who understands how to read a play and react quickly.

The Agoura Hills (CA) native will join Paysinger in forming one of the Pac-10’s best one-two punches at linebacker.

Casey Matthews reacts to the play

The new starter on the strongside will be sophomore Eddie Pleasant. Pleasant is replacing two-time all-conference performer Jerome Boyd at OLB. Last season, Pleasant played sparingly and finished with 16 tackles while also contributing on special teams.

At 5-11 223 pounds, he plays with ruthless abandon and loves contact, as he has garnered a reputation for being a huge hitter in the open field.

Pleasant is one of the strongest linebackers in the unit, joining Paysinger as a member of the Oregon Iron Club, and he is also the fastest LB on the roster, running in the mid 4.4 range during off-season drills. Coaches have already hinted that Pleasant will be featured in blitzes this season, but he is also quite capable in coverage schemes.

Pleasant’s versatility should be on display throughout 2009, and the La Palma (CA) native has a great opportunity to be the final piece of this exciting linebacking corps.

Eugene is buzzing about a new Duck this season. Junior Bryson Littlejohn arrived in time for spring drills after transferring from Sierra Community College (CA). Last year, Littlejohn was a JUCO All-American and he brings a dynamic skill set to Oregon.

At 6-1 227 pounds, Littlejohn is a tremendous athlete with the tools to play at all three linebacker spots. He started spring on the weakside, but has been moved to the middle behind Matthews. While Matthews job is quite secure, Littlejohn has enough upside to warrant frequent playing time somewhere on the field.

He has tremendous speed for his size (4.5), and is especially valuable in coverage situations. Littlejohn was given 4-star recognition from Rivals.com and Scout.com. The Elk Grove (CA) native is already a junior, and should be ready to contribute immediately.

Sophomore Dewitt Stuckey will also be a top reserve for the Ducks in 2009. Stuckey was on his way to a redshirt season in 2008, but depth issues forced him into action. He played in six games appearing on special teams. At 5-11 222 pounds, Stuckey makes up for his lack of size with elite athleticism and an aggressive style. Scout.com gave him 4-star recognition, and the Stockton (CA) native is currently listed behind Paysinger on the weakside.

The lone senior LB heading into the season is Riley Showalter. The former walk-on could provide great value to the unit this season because of his ability to play all three positions. He appeared in all 13 games last season, totaling eight tackles. Showalter should excel on special teams at least, but will also be a key reserve in case injuries mount. At 6-3 225 pounds, the Portland (OR) native has good size and understands the defense well.

Two heralded true freshmen will also join the Ducks this season: Michael Clay and Bo Lokombo.

The 5-11 220 pound Clay brings an exciting skill set to Eugene. He is a punishing hitter with solid speed and agility, and he has a nose for the football. Scout.com gave him 4-star recognition and Rivals.com rated him the #3 OLB in the 2009 class. The San Jose (CA) native could redshirt, but whenever he does play, the Ducks will have an exciting new linebacker.

The 6-3 226 pound Lokombo is a raw prospect with a ton of upside. He has great size and speed, and changes direction quickly for someone his size. Like Clay, Scout.com gave Lokombo 4-stars. The Canadian native from Abbotsford B.C. may redshirt as well.

Other players competing for time are: sophomores Josh Kaddu, Brandon Hanna, and freshmen Kiko Alonso.

My Take

With all due respect to recent linebackers like John Bacon, Jerome Boyd and A.J. Tuitele (from a couple years back), this new LB unit looks like it could be SPECIAL. There are terrific athletes all over the place, and the explosiveness has got to have Ducks fans excited.

The star power will be provided by Paysinger and Matthews, who are both primed for all-conference seasons. I am especially looking forward to seeing Matthews for a full season, as he has all the tools to light up the stat sheet in 2009. I also get the feeling that Nick Aliotti and LB coach Don Pellum are excited about Pleasant’s potential on the strongside, particularly because of his blitzing ability.

The reserves have tremendous upside, and there are a ton of them. I am especially high on Littlejohn, who is too good not to play and the coaches will have to figure out a place for him.

Overall, expect the gifted linebackers to be the heart of the Ducks defense this season.