BRUT SUN BOWL
El Paso, Texas
Oklahoma Sooners (7-5) VS. #21 Stanford Cardinal (8-4)
Thursday, December 31, 11:00 AM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oklahoma -10.0

Sam’s Take (57 – 23):

There is plenty to like about this year’s Sun Bowl, as it pits one of the rising stars of the coaching profession (Jim Harbaugh) against one of the sport’s best over the last decade (Bob Stoops). We will also see one of the nation’s premier running backs (Toby Gerhart) take on a defense full of NFL talent that ranked 7th nationally in total defense this season. Unfortunately, the one thing we won’t see is a dream quarterback dual between Sam Bradford and freshman phenom Andrew Luck, but it should still be a fun game in El Paso.

The biggest question heading into the Sun Bowl is how effective the Stanford running game can be without Luck at the helm. Certainly Gerhart is the heart and soul of the team, but I question whether the Cardinal offensive line can open up space against an Oklahoma d-line that is downright nasty (Sooners ranked 7th nationally against the run). With Tavita Pritchard under center this Stanford offense looks more like it did in 2008, and that team went 5-7. If the Cardinal cannot stay moderately balanced on offense, it could be a long day for the Heisman runner-up.

Oklahoma may not be lighting the scoreboard on fire like it did with Bradford running the show, but this team is still full of explosive talent. Stanford’s defense has been susceptible throughout the season, especially through the air. I expect QB Landry Jones and the Sooners powerful passing attack (17th nationally in passing offense) to give the Cardinal defense problems all day (Stanford ranked 105th nationally against pass).

There is still a slight chance that Andrew Luck could play at some point during the game, but I am not confident that he will be healthy enough to make a difference. I expect the ultra-talented Oklahoma defense to load the box against Gerhart, and it’s hard for me to believe that Pritchard will make the Sooners pay.

I like Oklahoma in this one.

Prediction: Oklahoma 34 – Stanford 24

Oklahoma Player to Keep an Eye On: DT Gerald McCoy – McCoy is an All-American and a dominant presence in the middle of the Sooner defensive line. He will likely be a top ten pick in this year’s draft, so the Stanford o-line will have its hands full.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Owen Marecic – Marecic is one of the best fullbacks in college football and he will have to play like it in this game. He is a deceptively good receiver but is at his best when lead blocking for Gerhart.

Dave’s Take (59 – 21):

It really is a shame that Andrew Luck won’t be able to play in the bowl game he helped lead this team to.

Without him, I’m just not sure that Stanford has the versatility to have success on offense against a tough Oklahoma defense. Needless to say, Toby Gerhart will get a healthy dose of carries and yards and will likely cross the goalline once or twice, too; but without Luck there to keep the defense honest, the Sooners can hone in on stopping the run, and while you can’t STOP a player like Toby Gerhart, you can certainly slow him down if the passing game is neutralized by the lack of a serious threat at quarterback.

The Cardinals’ defense has for the most part fed off of the offense’s energy this season, which poses a problem when considering the likelihood of a tough day offensively. Despite Sam Bradford’s absence, Oklahoma still has a very dangerous offense, and they will likely put up their share of points.

I’m sure that Coach Harbaugh will have his team jacked up for the game, but I just don’t think the Cardinal have the tools with Andrew Luck out to compete against Oklahoma if the Sooners are at their best, which I expect them to be after a frustrating season on their end.

Prediction: Oklahoma 31 – Stanford 17

Stanford Cardinal 7-4 Overall (6-3 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Cal 34 – Stanford 28

Next Week’s Opponent: Notre Dame

“Cal did an outstanding job. They deserved the credit. They controlled the line of scrimmage most of the game especially in the 3rd and 4th quarter. It wasn’t just that one play. To win a game you have to win the phases: offense, defense. I thought we won special teams, but that’s only one.”- Jim Harbaugh

Who would have thought that Cal would be the physical aggressor in this game? Sure it’s an intense rivalry and the Bears undoubtedly had a chip on their shoulder, but for Jeff Tedford’s squad to control the line of scrimmage against the Cardinal is an incredible accomplishment.

Obviously Stanford didn’t want to end a special Pac-10 season by losing the Big Game, but you really have to credit the boys from Berkeley for a great effort. If it’s any consolation ‘Furd supporters, at least Arizona lost, so the Rose Bowl dream would have ended anyway.

Besides the shocking physical domination that Cal exhibited, I saw one other thing Saturday that I never would have expected. QB Andrew Luck finally looked like a freshman (10/30 157 yards 0 TDs 1 INT). For the first time since early in the year, Luck missed a few throws that he probably should have hit, and more importantly, he turned the ball over at a critical point.

Normally, I’m not one to value individual achievements over team goals, but it was tough to see Toby Gerhart’s Heisman hopes fade after such a great individual effort (20 carries 136 yards 4 TDs). Gerhart is still my choice for best tailback in America, and I can only hope that the Doak Walker Award Committee has been able to watch him play often this season.

The Cardinal defense really started to come on late in the season, but Ron Lynn’s unit couldn’t hold up against a motivated Cal offense (Bears racked up 477 yards of offense). RB Shane Vereen played out of his mind (42 carries 193 yards 3 TDs) and the Wildcat offense seemed to cause Stanford a lot of trouble.

The Pac-10 season is now over for the Cardinal, and while it didn’t end in an ideal way, a second place finish is still probable (though it could be a 4-way tie). Stanford closes out the 2009 season this week against the underwhelming Fighting Irish.

Cal Bears (7-3) vs. Stanford Cardinal (7-3)
Saturday, November 21, 4:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Stanford -7.5

Sam’s Take (46- 18):

The 112th edition of the Big Game will kickoff at 4:30 pm on Saturday, and Stanford is pulling out all the stops in order to win back the Axe (Tiger Woods will be the Cardinal’s honorary captain). I’m sure Stanford fans will have one eye on the Oregon-Arizona game, as it will be going on concurrently, and imagine the scene on the Farm if the Cardinal and Wildcats win their respective games at around the same time!

As well as Jim Harbaugh’s team has played in recent weeks, it is important to remember that Cal has won six of the last seven in this series. It is also worth mentioning that the Bears have a lot to play for, as a win in the Big Game would keep Jeff Tedford’s club in the hunt for a third place finish in the Pac-10.

The Big Game will also have an impact on the Heisman Trophy race. Who would have thought before the season started that #7 in red would be on the verge of an invite to New York while #4 in white watches from the sideline? In a year where none of the usual suspects seem to want the trophy, Toby Gerhart’s stock is soaring. A big day rushing in the Big Game may impress voters enough to give him a realistic shot (although it would really help if Stanford can sneak into the Rose Bowl).

While I was impressed by Cal last week against ‘Zona, I don’t think Bob Gregory’s defense has the size to stop the powerful Cardinal rushing game. Right now I believe Stanford can run its power plays on any D in America, and even when you know its coming there is now way to contain it. Throw in a red hot Andrew Luck, and its easy to see why Stanford has scored 106 combined points in its last two high-profile games (UO, USC).

It wouldn’t surprise me if Cal scores in the high 20’s or low 30’s against Stanford, as QB Kevin Riley has played pretty well in his last few games and RB Shane Vereen is more than capable of carrying the running load. But I just don’t think 24-30 points is going to be enough to keep up with the powerful Cardinal.

I expect a competitive game in the first half, but then Stanford’s well-oiled offensive machine will take over.

Prediction: Stanford 40 – Cal 27

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: DB Bryant Nnabuife - Nnabuife was excellent in his first career start last week, and he will have to be even better this week in order to prevent Andrew Luck and the Stanford passing attack from establishing a rhythm.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Richard Sherman - I am assuming the Stanford offense will do its thing, but the defense will need to make a few plays too. Sherman is a true playmaking corner who loves to bait quarterbacks (as he did last week vs. ‘SC).

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

I knew the win over Oregon was no fluke. That said, after the massive workload that Gerhart had in that game, and the emotional overload of becoming bowl eligible, I thought the Cardinal would come out flat against USC.

Instead, they built on the effort, putting up 50+ for the second straight week in destroying the Trojans on their home turf.

Now, with the Big Game and a potential Rose Bowl bid on the line, why should we expect anything less than another fantastic effort?

I expect Cal to be at their very best this Saturday, too. While it has been a disappointing season in Berkeley, what better way to salvage it than to crush your hated rival’s shot at a Rose Bowl berth and Toby Gerhart’s shot at the Heisman in one fell swoop?

Should be a fun game to watch with plenty on the line for both sides, but if both teams are at their best, I just can’t see Stanford losing this one. They are playing at another level on offense right now, and the defense is feeding off of the energy as well. Cal won’t go down easy, but look for Stanford to take care of business in their last game of conference play.

Prediction: Stanford 41 – Cal 28

Stanford Cardinal 7-3 Overall (6-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Stanford 55 – USC 21

Next Week’s Opponent: Cal

I thought last week’s win over Oregon would be the signature moment of the 2009 season for Stanford…boy was I wrong. Make no mistake about it, the Cardinal beat a better team two weeks ago in Palo Alto, but what Jim Harbaugh’s club accomplished in the Coliseum this past Saturday was absolutely remarkable.

For those still trying to figure out how this Stanford team has become a legitimate threat to win the Pac-10, all you have to do is take a look back at Harbaugh’s Pac-10 Media Day press conference from July. The 45-year old coach made it quite clear that his team was preparing for war every week. “This is going to be a physical conference — only the strong are going to survive in this environment, 2009 Pac-10 football. This is going to be a mighty men conference this year.”

Harbaugh challenged his team to be the most mentally and physically prepared group in the conference, and they have been.

The Cardinal consistently won the battle at the line of scrimmage against USC, as both the o-line and d-line punished the Trojans throughout the game. Obviously RB Toby Gerhart had another Heisman-worthy day (178 yards 3 TDs) but in my opinion the real reason Stanford has a shot at the Rose Bowl is because of #12. With all due respect to Tavita Pritchard, this Stanford offense is virtually identical to last season’s unit except at the quarterback position.

I believe Andrew Luck is the best QB in the Pac-10, and it continues to astound me that he is a redshirt freshman. Luck did not have a monster day against ‘SC (12-22 144 yards 2 TDs, 61 yards rushing 1 TD) but he easily won the “Battle of the Pac-10’s Young Guns” over Matt Barkley. I am amazed at Luck’s pocket presence, as he always seems to be in control of every play. Can you imagine how good this kid will be in 2-3 years?

How about the Stanford D? Ron Lynn’s unit was all over Barkley (threw three picks), and I have to believe Harbaugh is thrilled with how the group rebounded after the shaky performance against Oregon (Cardinal allowed 21 points vs. ‘SC, 42 vs. UO).

Up next for Stanford is a particularly big Big Game. A Cardinal win Saturday keeps the Pac-10 title dream alive (depending on the UO-UA game), but a loss to the Bears could drop Stanford all the way to fifth in the standings. Oh, and Bay Area superiority will be on the line.

Ding Dong’ the merry-oh, sing it high, sing it low.
Let them know
The Wicked Witch is dead!

For some reason, this song was running through my head as I watched Stanford pummel USC.

For Trojans fans, it has been a fantastic ride for the last seven years. So fantastic, in fact, that Trojan fans are completely guilty of taking it for granted. Every single one of them (myself, included).

Virtually every hiccup along the way has cost USC a trip to the National Championship, which in turn turned the Rose Bowl into a consolation prize of sorts. USC fans are always disappointed to “only” win the Pac-10 and “only” go to the Rose Bowl.

And that’s one of the reasons why fans around the conference have hated the USC Trojans and their fans for the better part of a decade now, and as Stanford drove the final nail into the coffin that Washington had opened and Oregon had closed, there is plenty of reason for the rest of the conference to celebrate.

A friend of mine asked me, “Dave, you know your Pac-10; Is USC done for? I mean, I know they are this season, but are they done for good?”

I’m surprised at how many people are living in the moment so badly that they are actually asking this question. NO, USC isn’t done for good. They still have one of the best coaches in the country and a never-ending stable of 4 and 5-star talent. They will be a serious contender for the Pac-10 title next year, as well as the years to come.

The beauty, though, is that they won’t be the only serious contender. 2009 will not mark the beginning of the end of USC as a football power; but it will mark the end of their stranglehold over the rest of the conference.

PAC-10 ON THE RISE – FIVE TEAMS IN THE TOP 25

Many college football fans are going to continue to be ignorant and disregard the Pac-10.

They will continue to laugh off the conference for no reason at all, and ignore evidence of its strength. They will continue to hold the ridiculous double standard that when SEC teams beat each other up (which has been non-existent this year), it is an indication of how strong the conference is, but when the Pac-10 beats itself up, it is an indication of how weak the conference is. How does this even begin to make sense?

Of course, if you are one of these people, you are scoffing and preparing your “LOL PAC-10 TEH SUX” comment. Good for you.

But for the more reasonable, it is hard to ignore that the Pac-10 is on the rise.

Perhaps the strongest evidence of the Pac-10’s strength is the amount of BCS ranked teams it has. Heading into this weekend, the Pac-10 currently has 20% of the teams in the BCS top 25 with five; #11 Oregon, #17 Stanford, #18 USC, #19 Oregon State, and #25 California. The ACC and Big 10 each have four, the SEC, Big East, and Mountain West have three, the Big 12 has two, and the WAC has one.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Pac-10 is the only conference that schedules only three out of conference games. They actually have to play a true round robin, and don’t have the opportunity to dodge big conference opponents or schedule an extra softy like other teams do.

TEAM-BY-TEAM, EVERYONE IS GETTING BETTER

What impresses me most about the Pac-10 this season is that as great and deep as the conference has proven to be this season, from the looks of it, it is only going to get better.

1-6:

Oregon – Still in control of their own destiny atop the Pac-10, Oregon has steam-rolled through most of their opponents, including USC and Cal. Their two losses have come against very good ranked opponents; and they’d love to have the Boise State game back as that continues to look more and more like an anomaly. The Mike Belotti to Chip Kelly transition was seamless, and with a fantastic and innovative system in place on both sides of the ball, Oregon will be a power for years to come. They have both Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James returning next year, and this was the year for the offensive and defensive lines to rebuild; both should be even stronger in 2010.

Stanford – Their late surge has given them back-to-back wins over conference powerhouses in Oregon and USC as well as a chance of a trip to the Rose Bowl if the cards fall right. Jim Harbaugh has turned this team around in a hurry, and they have taken on his personality as a hard-nosed physical team that never stops working. This was supposed to be the year to break in Andrew Luck, but he has already emerged as a star at the quarterback position. He will likely be even better next season, and Harbaugh’s excellent ability to recruit will be even easier after the display the Cardinal have put on over the last few weeks.

Oregon State – Year in and year out, Mike Riley churns out one of the most consistently strong teams in the Pac-10. The Beavers have finished in the Top 25 for three straight years, and from the looks of it will keep that streak alive here in 2009. Their excellent post-September play (as always) has put them in a position to take at least a share of the Pac-10 title with a win over their rival Ducks. Mike Riley is one of the best in the country at recruiting and developing players into his system, and there is no reason to believe the Beavers won’t continue to be a threat to make noise in the conference for as long as he’s at the helm.

Arizona – Hard to believe Mike Stoops was on the hot seat not too long ago. With the help of Sonny Dykes and the emergence of Nick Foles at QB, the Wildcats have an electrifying offense. They also have an extremely fast and talented defensive unit. With Oregon and USC still ahead, the path to the Rose Bowl is a difficult one, but it isn’t out of the question. And even if the ‘Cats do fall short this season, the valuable experience that they are gaining from playing meaningful conference games in November will pay huge dividends in creating a championship atmosphere next year and beyond.

USC – Remarkably, the once invincible Trojans find themselves staring at a potential Poinsettia or Emerald Bowl berth. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Trojans with an inexperienced quarterback and a defense that was almost entirely turned over from last season, but we refused to believe that it would be. Tons of injuries on offense didn’t help, either. But while the Trojans may be down and out this year, they will be right back in the thick of things next year. And for the first time in seven years, they won’t have the target on their back. It should be a lot of fun to see how Pete Carroll rallies the troops next season and beyond now that USC’s aura of invincibility is gone.

Cal – Hard to consider this year anything but a disappointment considering the high hopes coming in. On paper, Cal was right up there with USC among the most talented teams in the country. Jeff Tedford has done an outstanding job recruiting, and while the Bears haven’t been able to get over the hump yet, they seem to be an annual threat to do so. Every year we hype Cal up as one of the conference’s top teams and they end up falling short; they strike me as one of those teams that as soon as we all decide to finally count them out, that will be when it all comes together and they catch everyone off guard.

7-9:

UCLA – The fact that UCLA is the 7th or 8th best team in this conference is about as good of an indicator of the Pac-10’s strength as anything else. Yes, they have five losses; but all to the teams listed above, proving only that they aren’t quite in that tier yet. The Bruins did go into Tennessee with a redshirt freshman quarterback and take that game, and they also dominated what has turned out to be a pretty decent Kansas State team that beat Kansas a few weeks ago. Rick Neuheisel has been stockpiling great young talent, and this team is clearly going in the right direction; they just need to put it all together. A win over Arizona State or USC would make them bowl eligible, too.

Arizona State – Possessing arguably the best defense in the Pac-10, ASU has had a frustrating year due in large part to their inability to get anything going on offense. It is pretty clear that they are only a playmaker or two on offense away from making the jump into the category above. Even without one, Georgia, Cal, and USC were all near-misses that could have easily gone the Sun Devils’ way. If this team can get better play from the offensive line and quarterback next year, both very realistic possibilities, near misses will start turning into wins.

Washington – Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Huskies have a long way to go to get back to respectability. That said, they have the right man to get them there in Steve Sarkisian. This has been made evident by their hard work and no-quit attitude, which helped them play a respectable game against LSU and pull off huge upsets over USC and Arizona. As Coach Sark brings in more talent, the Huskies should continue to rise, and until then they will likely continue to be a thorn in the side of the conferences top dogs.

10:

Washington State – And than there’s the Cougars. While WSU has made a few strides, they are hard to notice or get excited about with how rapidly the rest of the conference is rising. The situation looks pretty dire in Pullman, but on the bright side, there really isn’t anywhere to go but up from here.



THE WRAP UP

Looking at this conference from top to bottom, how can you deny its strength? Every single team (with perhaps the exception of WSU) appears to be either getting better or at the very least maintaining their competitive spot. From the looks of things, the Pac-10 is going to be a flat-out dogfight of excellent teams with top-flight talent for years to come.

Isn’t that what earned the SEC the reputation of being the nation’s best conference?

It’s about time to drop the bias.

Stanford Cardinal (6-3) vs. USC Trojans (7-2)
Saturday, November 14, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -10.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (43 – 16):

My what a difference two years makes. Stanford’s 2007 win at the Coliseum is considered one of the greatest upsets in the history of college football (‘SC was a 41 point favorite), but it should shock no one if the ‘Furd wins on Saturday. This game will essentially serve as a Pac-10 title elimination match, as the winner will still be in the hunt for a Rose Bowl birth.

Can anyone stop the Stanford offense? The Cardinal now rank 14th nationally in total offense, and the unit features arguably the best running back in college football. While many observers around the country are ready to hand Alabama RB Mark Ingram the Doak Walker Award (and possibly the Heisman), I believe RB Toby Gerhart belongs in the discussion.

The nation’s second leading rusher (1,217 16 TDs) will be going up against a Trojans D that has looked susceptible against good rushing teams (Oregon, Oregon State). If the Cardinal can establish a running game early, I expect QB Andrew Luck to have a lot of success in the passing game. Luck has one of the best play action fakes in the country, and he is a tremendous decision maker.

USC received some bad news this week, as it looks like all-universe wideout Damian Williams will be out for the Stanford game. ‘SC has turned to Williams for clutch plays all season, so the onus now falls on Ronald Johnson and Brice Brown to keep the passing game productive (and possibly TE Anthony McCoy if he can go). Fortunately for QB Matt Barkley, the Cardinal D has been terrible defending the pass (102nd nationally) so there should be plenty of opportunities down field no matter which 5-star talent lines up at wideout for the Trojans.

Regardless of what the point spread says I see this game as a virtual toss up. On a neutral field I would probably take Stanford, but the Cardinal have lost three of four on the road this season (with the only win coming at lowly Wazzu). Pete Carroll knows his Trojans are still in the hunt to win an eight straight Pac-10 title, and I think he will get the team extra motivated to defend their home field in these final three games. I expect a tight battle for four quarters, but ‘SC finds a way in the end.

Prediction: USC 33 – Stanford 30

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Coby Fleener - Fleener is one of the many excellent tight ends that Harbaugh has at his disposal. I believe Fleener’s sure hands and crisp route running make him especially valuable in the Cardinal’s offensive scheme.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Chris Galippo - Everyone knows what Stanford likes to do offensively, but no one has really been able to stop it. Galippo will be one of the keys to containing Gerhart and the powerful Cardinal rushing attack.

Dave’s Take (46 – 13):

If this year has shown us anything, it is just how great of a conference the Pac-10 is, and that if you aren’t at your very best, you will likely find yourself on the losing end. How many teams have we seen get caught flat-footed coming off of a huge win this season? USC after Ohio State, Washington after USC, Oregon after USC, just to name a few.

This game strikes me as a prime let-down spot for the Cardinal for two reasons.

For one, just how much emotion went into that last game. To knock off the Pac-10 juggernaut Ducks took such an incredible effort from top to bottom. To lock up the first bowl bid in eight years, to have the fans rush the field… it will be nearly impossible to match that emotion and intensity in back to back games.

Secondly, Toby Gerhart is a human being. I know it’s hard to believe sometimes with the way he runs, but even the toughest players in the world get bumps and bruises. I have zero doubt that Gerhart will show up with the same intensity and power as he always does; but after his remarkable bruising 38-carry performance, I just can’t imagine he’ll be 100% this Saturday.

Stanford has a fantastic team, and a Jim Harbaugh team is always going to work hard for 60 minutes. That said, I just can’t imagine the Cardinal (or anyone for that matter) being able to put together two games at that level back-to-back, and they’ll need to against a team as tough as the Trojans in the Coliseum. Look for a game effort, but a Trojan victory in the end.

Prediction: USC 31 – Stanford 21

Stanford Cardinal 6-3 Overall (5-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Stanford 52 – Oregon 41

Next Week’s Opponent: @USC

“This was definitely my biggest win since I’ve been here at Stanford. I think it’s definitely bigger than the USC win because it gets us to that bowl game. All our seniors, the goal coming in was to be a bowl team. This was by far the biggest win. The students storming the field, that was an awesome feeling.”- Toby Gerhart

Sure Stanford beat arguably the hottest team in college football last Saturday, but like the amazing Toby Gerhart said, the real accomplishment was notching win number six. Now, for the first time in eight years, the Cardinal are bowl eligible. Heading into this brutal four game season-ending stretch (Oregon, @USC, Cal, Notre Dame), I wasn’t convinced that Jim Harbaugh’s team could secure bowl eligibility. But after watching the way this team played against the Ducks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stanford win out.

Attention NFL scouts, GM’s, and coaches… if you still have reservations about RB Toby Gerhart’s pro potential, you should be fired immediately. If the season ended today, Gerhart would win my vote for Pac-10 Player of the Year. He put on a show Saturday, ripping through the normally sturdy Ducks D for 233 yards and three TDs. Gerhart is now the second leading rusher in America with 1,217 yards (5.2 YPC), and his 16 TDs are also second nationally.

As phenomenal as Gerhart has been, the reason Stanford now ranks 14th nationally in total offense is because of how balanced the attack is. Against Oregon, the Cardinal ran for 254 yards and threw for 251. QB Andrew Luck looks nothing like a freshman to me at this point, and he had another fantastic day (12/21 251 yards 2 TDs 0 Ints). WR Chris Owusu continues to be one of the most reliable deep threats in the Pac-10, as he caught four passes for 111 yards and 1 TD.

Obviously the Stanford D needs to tighten up in these next three weeks, but Saturday’s effort against an explosive Oregon offense is somewhat understandable (Cardinal D allowed 570 yards of offense).

Next up for Jim Harbaugh’s club is a huge game at USC. History was made the last time the Cardinal played at the Coliseum. A win over the Trojans this Saturday would not be nearly as surprising.

Oregon Ducks (7-1) vs. Stanford Cardinal (5-3)
Saturday, November 7, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (39- 15):

The two most prolific rushing attacks in the Pac-10 square off in Palo Alto this Saturday, but the offensive philosophies of these teams couldn’t be more different. Chip Kelly’s club likes to confuse and humiliate opposing defenses, while Jim Harbaugh’s squad just likes to run them over. If styles make fights, we should have a good one on Saturday.

Are the Ducks still flying high after their epic thrashing of the Trojans? If so, Stanford will make them pay just as they did the Washington Huskies, but personally, I don’t get the feeling that Chip Kelly will let that happen. Why? Because of the way Oregon practices. The Ducks play fast and furious even when they are going up against the scout team, and that kind of preparation usually allows a team to become letdown-proof. Don’t get me wrong, Stanford is a VERY good football team, but a strong argument could be made that the Ducks are the BEST football team in America right now.

Here is what we know: Oregon is tremendous on offense (#8 nationally in rush offense, #9 scoring offense) AND defense (#20 nationally in total defense) AND special teams (#3 nationally on kickoff returns). Stanford on the other hand is tremendous on offense (#20 nationally in total offense), AND special teams (#1 nationally on kickoff returns), but mediocre on defense (#67 nationally in total defense).

Quite simply, I believe the difference in the game will be the Stanford defense. Oregon should be able to score at will on a Cardinal D that lacks lateral speed, while the Ducks D should be able to put up a very good fight against RB Toby Gerhart, QB Andrew Luck and the rest of the potent Stanford attack.

Bottom line: I believe the dream season (since Sept. 3rd of course) will continue for the Ducks, as they come away with a big road win on the Farm.

Prediction: Oregon 35 – Stanford 23

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: LB Casey Matthews - Gap control is the name of the game when facing Stanford’s power running game, and Matthews will be a key to containing #7 in red.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Owen Marecic - I believe Marecic is the most underrated player in the Pac-10. Seriously. He is as good a lead blocker as you will find in college football, and he is also capable of catching the ball out of the backfield.

Dave’s Take (42 – 12):

No disrespect to the Stanford Cardinals (who have one of the best and hardest working teams in the Pac-10), but this game starts and ends with the Oregon Ducks.

After what we saw last week, it looks to me that if Oregon is at their best, there isn’t a team in the nation that can beat them. Yes, I said it, any team in the nation. USC didn’t have a single turnover in the game (until an interception on the very last play of the game), and still got completely manhandled. USC! Oregon was so strong and fast on both sides of the ball that they looked untouchable.

Stanford could be a very dangerous trap for this team. Toby Gerhart is one of the best backs in the conference and is the most powerful. Andrew Luck has incredible poise for a redshirt freshman, and the passing attack has been working this year to compliment Gerhart’s rushing attack. If Oregon partied a little too hard this week and let themselves start to believe that they are the best and they are the Pac-10 champs, they could be in for a very rude awakening this week.

But I don’t see that happening. The team already had an extremely humbling experience this season (@Boise State), and I think Chip Kelly will get the message to his players that nothing short of their best effort will be acceptable this week. With the way the defense is swarming and Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James are clicking on offense, I can’t go against this team.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Stanford 24

Stanford Cardinal 5-3 Overall (4-2 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Stanford 33 – Arizona State 14

Next Week’s Opponent: @Arizona

The big win over Arizona State couldn’t have come at a better time for Stanford, who had an excellent day on both sides of the ball. Coming off of two straight rough losses and with nothing but Top-25 opponents waiting on the other side of this week’s bye, Saturday’s game was a virtual must-win to get some confidence back and keep Stanford’s bowling hopes alive.

Stanford’s balanced attack had another great day, racking up 473 yards of total offense in as balanced an effort as you will see (236 yards through the air, 237 yards on the ground). Andrew Luck added another mistake-free day to his resume, going 17/28 with no interceptions or touchdowns.

All four touchdowns came on the ground; remarkably, four different ball carriers rushed for a touchdown; Toby Gerhart, Stepfan Taylor, FB Owen Marecic, and WR Jamal-Rashad Patterson. Gerhart led the way with 23 carries and 125 yards.

ASU’s defense is a top-notch unit, one of the best in the conference; so to see Stanford have the success they did against them is certainly a reassuring sign with the slew of big opponents coming up.

Defensively, the Cardinal had the best game they’ve had in weeks. Not only did they hold ASU to only 290 total yards, but shutting them out in the first half gave their offense the chance to put this one out of reach early. The Sun Devils’ offense leaves plenty to be desired, but that shouldn’t take away from the pride that this unit should feel after a very strong game.

Not a bad way to head into a bye week. Coach Harbaugh will have an extra week to prepare for the slew of tough opponents (Oregon, @USC, Cal, Notre Dame).  Having three of the four games at home doesn’t hurt, and a few more efforts like this one could easily result in an upset win and bowl eligibility for the Cardinal.

Arizona State Sun Devils (4-2) vs. Stanford Cardinal (4-3)
Saturday, October 24, 7:25 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Stanford -6.5

Sam’s Take (31 – 14):

This game will not be for the faint of heart. Get your helmet strapped on tight, because there is going to be a lot of hitting. These two teams couldn’t have experienced more different emotions last week, as the Cardinal lost in devastating fashion and the Sun Devils won on one of the craziest plays of the year.

The story of this Saturday’s game on the Farm will be the battle between the ultra-physical Stanford offense and the ultra-physical ASU defense. I am particularly excited to witness what I am calling the “Battle of #7’s”, as RB Toby Gerhart and LB Vontaze Burfict will surely meet on multiple occasions.

As I see it, the team that gets better play at QB will win this game. While ASU’s Danny Sullivan has looked much improved lately, I am putting my money on Stanford’s Andrew Luck. Luck was incredible against Arizona (save that opening pick six), and he barely resembles a freshman at this point. Cardinal receivers are also starting to step up in a big way, as both Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu have developed into all-conference caliber players.

Danny Sullivan is playing with great confidence right now, but this is the week that he must prove he can play well on the road. In his last away game against Wazzu, Sullivan was absolutely terrible, so it should be interesting to see how he performs this week. I expect Dennis Erickson to call some high percentage screens and quick outs at the beginning of the game so that Sullivan can establish some rhythm.

Ultimately, I expect a very tightly contested game that is played in the low to mid-20’s. The ASU defense will probably be strong throughout, but I think a couple of key Toby Gerhart runs mixed in with a big play from Luck to Owusu may be the difference.

Prediction: Stanford 24 – Arizona State 23

Arizona State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Jamal Miles - Miles made his debut last week against Washington, showing great speed and explosion which is what the offense could use more of.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Jim Dray - Jim Harbaugh loves to use multiple tight ends in the running and passing game, and Dray is arguably the most complete TE on the team.

Dave’s Take (35 – 10):

It’s really difficult to get a grasp on Stanford at this point. There isn’t much doubt that the offense is clicking; Andrew Luck is a star in the making, as are his main wideouts  Chris Owusu and Ryan Whalen; and Toby Gerhart is one of the premier rushers in the country. Stanford’s 429.9 yards per game ranks 23rd in the nation.

The defense, however, has been a major disappointment. The Cardinal have given up 38+ points in two straight games (38 against Oregon State and 43 against Arizona). Yes, these are two high power offenses; but the performances have been inexcusably bad all the same. How will they fare back at home against the Sun Devils?

For the second straight week, Arizona State will have strength against strength when their defense takes the field, and weakness against weakness when their offense takes the field. Ironically enough, it was the offense that came up with the huge play to win the game against Washington; but all due respect to Danny Sullivan and Chris McGaha, that was thanks in large part to a major defensive collapse.

Arizona State hasn’t failed to score 17 points in a game this season, and they shouldn’t fail to do so in this one either. If ASU gets the 17-24 points I expect them to, it would mean that Stanford would have to get into the mid-to-high 20s in scoring. Will they be able to do so against this stingy ASU defense?

My head says yes, but for some reason, my gut says no. It will take a hell of an effort all around, but I think the Sun Devils have it in them; and I think they get away with the upset.

Prediction: Arizona State 23 – Stanford 17