Oregon Ducks 1-1 Overall (0-0 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 38 – Purdue 36

Next Week’s Opponent: Utah

A good win for the Ducks, and they needed it badly. But I had a lot of questions about this team coming into the game, and honestly, I still do. While it was encouraging to see Jeremiah Masoli running around and making plays again, where were the wide receivers?

I fear that Jamere Holland is going down the Jaison Williams path, but hopefully the dropped balls do not continue to be an issue. Otherwise, will Holland be considered 50/50 part two? Also, I am very confused as to why Ed Dickson isn’t a bigger part of the offense (one catch against Purdue). Only two wideouts (Holland, Maehl) and two tight ends (Paulson and Dickson) made catches against Purdue, and I am sure Chip Kelly is not happy about that.

The running game was more encouraging, as the Ducks ran for 193 yards, led by Masoli with 84. Both James and Barner continued to display their explosive potential, but the two were only given a combined 14 carries (90 yards between the two). I will say that James worries me with his ball security issues, and that may be a reason for his limited touches. Crenshaw didn’t do much (23 yards, 1 TD, 2.1 ypc) but he should be productive as the season progresses. It is critical that the misdirection and option plays continue to keep defenses off-guard, because Oregon does not have an overly physical group of tailbacks; not anymore at least.

I thought the defense did some really good things against Purdue, but the Boilermakers certainly got their fair share of offensive production (PUR out gained ORE 451-356). Obviously, the Ducks D came up with two huge touchdowns and a pivotal blocked PAT. When Walter Thurmond scores a TD, the Ducks normally come up with a win so that was fun to see. I still see no real pass rush, and that looks like it may continue to plague this unit, but the pass defense was solid nonetheless.

Now the Ducks will face another BCS-busting power that is full of confidence. The game against Utah will be tough, but it is also a great opportunity for Oregon to regain some respect nationally.

Purdue Boilermakers (1-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (0-1)
Saturday, September 12, 7:15 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -12.0

Sam’s Take (8 – 1):

The long road back to respectability begins for Oregon this Saturday, and returning to Autzen may be just what the doctor ordered. While there is no real way of knowing how this Ducks team will respond to the humbling experience that took place last Thursday, Purdue may be the right opponent at the right time.

QB Jeremiah Masoli and the rest of the offense will be facing a Boilermaker defense that was lit up by Toledo in their opener (Purdue gave up 421 yards through the air). If Chip Kelly cannot find a way to get production out of his offense this week, it will be a very long season in Eugene.

Now is the time for Masoli to regain his confidence (and his passing accuracy). Now is also the time for a wideout like Jamere Holland to meet the high expectations that were set for him after an excellent off-season.

I expect to see exciting freshman tailback LaMichael James start to assert himself as the new feature back at Oregon, but Andre Crenshaw and Kenjon Barner will also be heavily involved. Unfortunately, all three backs may not go anywhere if the o-line doesn’t play substantially better than what we saw last week. The east-west running was completely ineffective against Boise, but maybe with improved line play and a trio of shifty backs, the misdirection will start to work again (after all, Blount didn’t look too nimble against the Broncos).

Defensively, the Ducks will have their work cut out for them. I am not as high on the defensive performance against Boise as some are. I feel that the Broncos offense shot itself in the foot on multiple occasions, and Nick Alliotti’s D looked lost at times.

I credit the unit for tightening up when it had to, but at best it was a “bend but don’t break” performance. My biggest concern is the health of safety T.J. Ward, who is “day-to-day”. If he can’t go Saturday, John Boyett may be forced back into action, or we may see one of the Rovers move over (Lewis or Johnson). Without Ward, the secondary is considerably less intimidating.

Purdue will likely attack the defense with standout RB Ralph Bolden, who rushed for 234 yards in the opener and flashed impressive playmaking ability throughout the game. The Ducks best bet may be to force QB Joey Elliot to beat them. Elliot was decent against Toledo, but also showed a penchant for throwing interceptions (he finished with 220 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs). In order to rattle Elliot, it is critical that the d-line establishes a consistent pass rush, something they did not do very well in Boise.

Oregon should have plenty of motivation to show the country that they are better than what they showed in the opener. I think the offense will be considerably better (it couldn’t be any worse), and while the defense is likely to give up some yards, I think the unit will also force a few turnovers.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Purdue 27

Purdue Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Ryan Kerrigan - He is an excellent pass-rusher with a high motor. He could wreak havoc on Masoli if the Oregon o-line plays like it did last week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Ed Dickson - For a struggling QB, having a reliable target like Dickson is huge. I hope the offense will run through him a little more, as he really is one of America’s best at tight end.

Dave’s Take (8 – 1):

A quick glance at the schedule this preseason, and the game against Purdue was the only “easy” one in September. Fast-forward to today, and what was supposed to be the respite of the month has all of a sudden become a virtual must-win for the Ducks.

There are two ways that I can see this game going.

Scenario One: Completely dejected after the awful game in Boise State and losing one of their best offensive weapons in LeGarrette Blount, the team can’t really find their grove or identity on or off the field. Jeremiah Masoli starts second guessing himself more often and forcing it too much, resulting in more turnovers. The defensive and offensive lines both continue to struggle as the offense looks out of sync and the defense has difficulty slowing down a powerful Boilermaker offensive attack. Purdue pulls off the upset, or comes dangerously close to doing so.

Scenario Two: Oregon sets out to prove to the world that this season is not lost, and last week was an aberration. They want to show that they’ll be just fine without LeGarrette Blount and they are plenty deep on offense to withstand the blow. Fueled by the home crowd and their desire to prove all of their doubters wrong, Oregon goes out and plays to their potential, this time flashing the ability on both sides of the ball that many of us were expecting in the Boise State game. The Ducks win comfortably, and pump some much needed life back into this season.

I’m leaning towards scenario two as I’m not quite ready to throw in the towel on the Ducks after just one game. An extremely ugly one game, yes, but it was the opener and plenty of teams weren’t at their best last week.

The only problem I’m having is that I made the same argument about being pumped up and going out with their best effort in the Boise State game, and we all saw how that turned out. If that was the best the Ducks could do in a game they had circled on the calendar, should we really expect them to all of a sudden find that heart they were lacking in one week?

I’m going to say yes… but if Scenario One plays out, it is going to be a long season.

Prediction: Oregon 41 – Purdue 24

Chip Kelly’s spread-offense produced two 1,000-yard rushers last season, only the second time in school history that it has happened. Throw in QB Jeremiah Masoli’s 718 yards on the ground, and it isn’t hard to see why the Ducks scored over 40 points a game in 2008.

But one of those 1,000-yard rushers is gone. RB Jeremiah Johnson graduated last season, finishing his fine career at Oregon with 2,336 yards and 30 TD’s. Can we really expect the Ducks to match last year’s productivity with the loss of their leading rusher? It won’t be easy, but a 240-pound bulldozer could pave the way for Oregon in 2009.

Ask Pac-10 defenses about senior RB LeGarrette Blount and you might see a few cringing faces. Better yet, ask Oklahoma State, who wanted no part of the 6-2 240 pound bruiser in last year’s Holiday Bowl.

He only carried the ball 137 times last season in an offense designed to spread the wealth, but he still made a huge impact. Blount rushed for 1,002 yards and a single-season school record 17 touchdowns. He averaged 7.3 yards per carry last year, obliterating the school record for 1,000-yard runners. The craziest part of all – 2008 was his first year at Oregon. The Junior College transfer only had two years of eligibility remaining when he left East Mississippi Community College in 2007.

Blount was suspended earlier this year for missing multiple team meetings, but it appears to be a thing of the past. He was also hampered by a minor foot injury during the spring, but it looks to be nothing that will keep him out of fall practice.

Blount possesses a devastating blend of size and speed. He burst onto the national scene in a non-conference game against Purdue. His 131 yards and 2 TD’s helped Oregon survive the upset-minded Boilermakers. In the game, Blount averaged a ridiculous 11.9 yards per carry and scored the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

Despite his fullback physique and pounding running style, Blount proved he could be a home run threat too. In 2008, he had runs of 72, 69, 46, and 40 yards. The former Rivals.com 4-star standout is primed for a big 2009. If Chip Kelly gives Blount 200 or more carries next season, look out.

We know who the Ducks feature back will be this fall, but Blount is by no means their only rushing threat.

Senior Andre Crenshaw has been in Chip Kelly’s system for a while now. The reliable Crenshaw has accumulated 551 yards and five TD’s in his career. At 5-11 196, Crenshaw is a nice compliment to Blount and a good return man as well. In 2007, Crenshaw ran for 415 yards and four TD’s. He was the team’s 3rd leading rusher in addition to returning kicks and playing some on special teams. He was used sparingly in 2008 because of the depth in front of him, but still averaged over five yards a carry with 121 yards and one TD on the year.

Junior Remene Alston Jr. will also see action in 2009. The 5-8 200 pound back from Greensboro, NC ran for 161 yards and one TD last year, averaging 7.7 yards per carry. He had a 43-yard scamper against Washington State that gave the Oregon coaching staff a chance to see his speed. Alston Jr.’s season was cut short on Oct. 20th because of a broken foot suffered during practice. Chip Kelly’s system allows for multiple backs to get carries, and a healthy Alston Jr. will look to capitalize on his chances in 2009.

The most exciting back on the roster besides Blount is redshirt freshman LaMichael James. The 5-9 180 pound speedster has a perfect skill set to offset the loss of Jeremiah Johnson. He is supremely skilled in the open field and possesses excellent quickness. He could also develop into a great receiver out of the backfield, something missing from this group of backs.

James spent last year on the scout team and will need experience, but his upside is undeniable. The Texas native was rated as a 4-star athlete by most recruiting services, running for over 2,000 yards and 26 TD’s in his senior year of high school. The former track star has been clocked at 10.51 in the 100 meters.

My Take

Having both LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Masoli in the shotgun at once is scary. Kelly’s offense is designed to spread the field and create one-on-one match-ups. I can’t imagine any defense stopping either Masoli or Blount with just one man. If Oregon can stabilize the offensive line, this rushing attack could be just as good as last year’s.

I am very high on LaMichael James. Crenshaw and Alston Jr. may get the carries at the start of the year, but James is too good to hold back for long. Overall, expect more rushing fireworks in Eugene this fall.