State of the Program

Stanford will be entering year two of the Johnny Dawkins era, and the longtime Duke assistant is coming off an up and down debut season on the Farm (20-14, 6-12 in Pac-10). Dawkins will certainly have his work cut out for him in 2009-10, as three of the program’s most consistent performers over the last four years (G Mitch Johnson, G Anthony Goods, F Lawrence Hill) have all departed. Now Stanford must find a way to replace 36.4 points per game as well as invaluable leadership and experience (all three played vital roles on the Sweet Sixteen team from two years ago).

Like many teams in the Pac-10, the rebuilding Cardinal will be searching for their identity this season. Two starters return, but will quality depth surface?

The answer to that question will likely define how this season plays out in Palo Alto. Unfortunately, the early prognosis is looking bleak. Here are the brutal facts as we get closer to the start of the season: G Jeremy Green or F/C Josh Owens, two key components of Dawkins lineup, have recently been ruled out indefinitely.

Green was suspended following an arrest on suspicion of felony domestic violence and it is unclear if he will be cleared to rejoin the team. Owens is being examined for an undisclosed medical condition, and while it is also possible that he could be cleared to play, his father has this to say about the condition: “Keep Joshua in your prayers, he’s hanging in there”.

As if that wasn’t unfortunate enough, the Cardinal will also be without the services of promising freshman forward Andy Brown, who is out for the year with a serious knee injury. This Stanford team was thin on proven players to begin with, but the potential losses of Green and Owens would be devastating.

Assuming the news is as bad as it looks, only six scholarship players will play in the season opener against San Diego (the rest of the roster are walk-ons). One thing is for sure; the resiliency of this Stanford team will be fully tested during the 2009-10 season.

Impact Superstar: G/F Landry Fields

Stanford is a team with many questions, but the superstar status of Landry Fields is not one of them. Fields is one of the Pac-10’s most underrated wing players, and he put his versatile skill set on display in a breakout 2008-09 season. The 6-8 senior from Long Beach (CA) averaged 12.6 points per game (3rd on team) and a team-high 6.6 rebounds per game last season, while also shooting nearly 50% from the field. His length and athleticism make him difficult to defend for both guards and forwards, and he is a very crafty scorer.

I expect Fields to increase his ppg total substantially this season, especially when you consider the lack of established offensive producers in the lineup. I also believe he will be extra motivated during his senior campaign because of the interest that he is starting to draw from NBA scouts. A stellar final season on the Farm will do wonders for his draft status, but he must improve his surprisingly low free throw percentage (65%).

Needs To Have A Big Year: F Andrew Zimmerman

Either Owens or Green would fit here ordinarily, but Zimmerman will now be counted on heavily in the frontcourt. The 6-9 forward transferred from Santa Clara, and spent last year playing for Foothill College. Now, he enters his first season on the Farm as a virtual lock to start. The sophomore from Oostburg (WI) averaged 2.2 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while at Santa Clara, but those numbers figure to improve quite a bit this season.

I am not sure Zimmerman is ready to start in the Pac-10, but frankly, Stanford has no other choice. Hopefully, he can adjust to the speed and physicality of the Pac-10, because there isn’t nearly enough frontcourt depth to sit him for extended periods.

Potential Impact Newcomer: G Gabriel Harris

Harris is a true freshman who will likely be the team’s starting point guard. The 6-2 Birmingham (AL) native will try to offset the loss of longtime floor general Mitch Johnson. Harris may have to become a consistent scoring threat in order to lessen the load for Fields, and although he was not heavily recruited, Dawkins believes he can be a difference maker: “We are looking forward to having Gabriel join our program. He is a solid, versatile guard who can do anything on the court and we expect him to be a good player in our system.”

My Take

There is really no way around it: this is going to be a trying season for Stanford basketball. Even with Green and Owens, the Cardinal would struggle to beat most teams in the Pac-10, but without them it could get ugly. Thankfully, Stanford has Johnny Dawkins at the helm, as he does not believe in giving in to adversity no matter the circumstances: “We’re a no excuse team. Our motto: We have to find a way. That’s what we’re attempting to do. We can become better from the experiences. It will help bond us.”

This Stanford program is one of the cornerstones of the Pac-10 (along with UCLA and UA), and I honestly believe Dawkins can lead the Cardinal back to the top… in time. But this season, the folks in Palo Alto must keep the expectation level pretty low.

Projected Pac-10 Finish: 10th Place