State of the Program

Only one team in the history of Pac-10 Men’s Basketball has gone winless in conference play: the 2007-08 Oregon State Beavers (6-25, 0-18 in Pac-10). That’s right, just two years ago the folks in Corvallis watched in horror as their team wound up in the wrong section of the record book.

The season was so dreadful, that former head coach Jay John became the first coach in the history of OSU athletics to be fired mid-season (John was let go after 6-12, 0-6 record). Interim head coach Kevin Mouton could fare no better, and athletic director Bob De Carolis knew he needed to hit a home run with his next hire or the program might not recover. A handful of big name coaches immediately tuned the job down, likely due to the enormous rebuilding project that was necessary.

While Oregon State may have missed out on the “name” coaches, De Carolis hit a monstrous home run nonetheless. Forget that Craig Robinson is Barack Obama’s brother-in-law (though recruiting has certainly been affected in a positive way), as more importantly, he is one heck of a basketball coach. Needless to say, what Robinson did last season with OSU was nothing short of remarkable. The Beavers finished the season 18-18 (7-11 in Pac-10) and won the CBI championship.

So the question is, can Robinson’s Beavers take the next step this season? Many prognosticators believe a top-3 conference finish is a realistic possibility, as virtually every major contributor from last season returns (G Ricky Claitt being the exception). If the gifted freshman class is as good as advertised, this OSU team will have a real chance to meet those high expectations.

Impact Superstar: G Calvin Haynes

The explosive Haynes is OSU’s leading returning scorer (13 PPG), and he appears primed for an even bigger season in 2009-10. During the off-season, Haynes underwent minor knee surgery, but after playing in the exhibition against Southern Oregon he appears to be moving around at full strength.

The 6-2 junior guard from Reseda (CA) was technically used in a reserve role for the majority of last season (played in 30 games, 5 starts), but he still averaged 29.7 minutes per game off the bench. I believe his role on this OSU team is somewhat comparable to Manu Ginobili’s role with the San Antonio Spurs. When Haynes establishes a rhythm, he can score in bunches, and I have no doubt he will match or exceed his numbers from last year.

Needs To Have A Big Year: F/C Roeland Schaftenaar

No player fits Craig Robinson’s Princeton style offense better than Schaftenaar. The 6-11 Dutchman from Utrecht, Netherlands plays the point-center in Oregon State’s system, as that role maximizes his exceptional passing and ball-handling skills. Last season, Schaftenaar finished with 10.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.3 APG, and he was named MVP of the CBI Tournament after averaging 13.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists in six games.

The skilled senior is big enough to do damage in the post (6-11 240 pounds), but also has the shooting touch to consistently score from behind the arc. In addition to his offensive production, he is one of the keys to Robinson’s stifling 1-3-1 zone defense.

Schaftenaar is one of my favorite players in the conference, and I believe he will have a fantastic senior season. If he can increase his rebounding production a bit this season, I think he will have a real shot at all-conference honors.

Potential Impact Newcomer: G Roberto Nelson

Nelson is a program-changing recruit, but the NCAA Clearinghouse has yet to rule him eligible. Craig Robinson is confident that the matter will be resolved soon, but Nelson is missing valuable practice time with the team. Assuming the ultra-talented freshman is cleared, OSU will have the services of one of America’s best young combo-guards.

Nelson can score in a variety of ways, and he has the vision to setup teammates for open shots. Rivals, Scout, and ESPN.com ranked the 6-3 freshman from Santa Barbara (CA) as one of top 100 overall players of the 2009 recruiting class.

My Take

Oregon State is going to win a lot of games in the next few years, and the rest of the Pac-10 knows it. But how many are realistic this season? After all, the Beavers are still a work in progress, and while the 1-3-1 zone was a huge hit last year, the offensive explosion has yet to develop.

Ultimately, I believe the experience of this Beaver squad (Hayes, Schaftenaar, the Tarver brothers etc.) will be the reason Craig Robinson gets his team to 20 wins. This is a very deep OSU squad, especially with so many talented freshmen ready to make an impact (Nelson, Cunningham, Brandt, Burton). I think the offense will make big strides, and Gil Coliseum will be rocking all year. While I don’t quite expect a top three finish in the Pac-10, I do see a team that will be on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament birth.

Projected Pac-10 Finish: 4th Place