State of the Program

Before the 2008-09 season started, many wondered what new head coach Mike Montgomery (the winningest coach in Stanford men’s basketball history) could bring to a Cal Bears team that was coming off of a pedestrian 17-16 season. Certainly Monty brought a proven track record (minus that disastrous two-year stint with the Golden State Warriors of course), and his connections to the Bay Area made hiring him that much easier. Still, it remained to be seen if he could take Cal to the next level.

Fast-forward a year and that question looks like it has already been answered in the form of a 22-11 record (3rd in Pac-10 at 11-7) and an NCAA Tournament birth in 2008-09. Montgomery, a four-time winner of Pac-10 coach of the year, lit a fire under the Bears from the first day of practice, and Cal went on to play some of the most entertaining, high-octane, and always offensive basketball of any team in the conference. Monty had the Bears looking more like the Phoenix Suns (circa 2005), as Cal led the nation in three-point field goal percentage while always pushing the tempo.

Now the question becomes, what does Montgomery have in store for year two? The expectations couldn’t be higher in Berkeley, as many feel this team can win a Pac-10 title. Every major contributor from last year’s team returns (save Jordan Wilkes I suppose), so Haas Pavilion should be rocking from November to March.

Impact Superstar: PG Jerome Randle

No player thrived under the tutelage of Montgomery more than Randle. Though diminutive in size (5-10 170 pounds), he might be the quickest guard in the country. Randle is an incredible offensive talent, possessing breathtaking range that extends well beyond the three-point line while also shooting a phenomenal percentage from downtown (46% on a school record 177 three-point attempts last year).

He finished the 2008-09 season third in the Pac-10 with 18.3 points per game, and he was tied for first in the conference with five assists per game. The senior guard was voted first-team All-Pac 10 last season and may challenge for All-American honors in 2009-10.

Randle is the engine of this Cal team, and I expect him to have another monster year. Last year we saw the Randle to Christopher connection reach new heights (no pun intended), and I expect to see even more this season.

Player That Needs To Have A Big Year: SF Theo Robertson

Certainly Patrick Christopher fits here too, as he must be have a huge year for the Bears to reach their goals. But I think Robertson is the x-factor because of what he does for the offense when he is consistently hitting the three-point shots. Robertson is a true sharpshooter, capable of changing a game when he gets into a groove. For the majority of the 2008-09 season, he led the nation in three-point shooting and finished at 48.7 % (second in school history).

At 6-6 230 pounds, Robertson has the size to play the three or four spot while also possessing the skills of a shooting guard. Last season the senior averaged 13.1 points and 3.9 rebounds, and I expect both totals to go up in 2009-10.

Potential Impact Newcomer: PG Brandon Smith

Smith is only a freshman, but the Cal coaching staff is extremely excited about his future. He could see time behind Randle as the Bears second point guard this season, and he may actually be a better defender than Randle even at this early stage in his career.

Smith played at De La Salle High School (CA), where he averaged 12.1 points and 7.3 assists. He garnered a reputation as one of the stingiest defensive players in school history, and as mentioned previously, his defensive ability may be the reason he sees time this year.

My Take

The Bears will be a handful for anyone this season, and I honestly believe a conference title is possible. There is not a team in the Pac-10 that has a better starting backcourt (Randle, Christopher) but I worry about Cal in the frontcourt. This group just isn’t that big, as most of the post players are 6-8 or smaller.

Sure there are a few projects in the lineup that are bigger (Max Zhang, Bak Bak), but the difference between Cal having a good season and a great season will depend on how the team can rebound. I like Harper Kamp (6-8), Jamal Boykin (6-8) and Omondi Amoke (6-7), but they will have to outwork taller players all season. If they can, the sky is the limit for this team.

I believe that Monty’s Bears will be in the thick of the conference race all season, and Cal fans should be very excited about the future of the program. We should learn something about the team right away, as Cal travels to New York City to play Syracuse in the 2K Sports Classic (and a match up with UNC is possible as well).

Ultimately, I see the Bears as a lock to make the NCAA Tourney for the second straight season, and with solid frontcourt play a run to the sweet sixteen or further is possible.

Projected Pac-10 Finish: 2nd Place