MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS
Las Vegas, Nevada
#18 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) VS. #14 BYU Cougars (10-2)
Tuesday, December 22, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -2.5

Sam’s Take (54 – 21):

For the second straight season Oregon State narrowly missed out on a Pac-10 title and the pride and pageantry that comes with representing the conference in the Rose Bowl. Oh, and lets not forget about the all-you-can-eat prime rib at Lawry’s Restaurant in Pasadena. So how will the Beavers find the motivation to play in the Las Vegas Bowl? I’m not sure that they will, but Mike Riley’s club has an exceptional record in bowl games and a win vs. BYU would give OSU six bowl victories in a row.

As I look at this match-up I see two key areas that could decide the game.

1. BYU pass offense vs. OSU pass defense – Max Hall and the potent Cougar offense will be going up against an OSU secondary that struggled against the pass and will be without its most experienced cornerback (CB Tim Clark). I have no doubt Bronco Mendenhall will go right after the Beavers DBs (especially Brandon Hardin) so OSU must be ready to stand up to the pass heavy attack all night.

2. ‘Quizz Rodgers vs. BYU run defense – this is a strength vs. strength match-up as the Pac-10’s third leading rusher (1,377 20 TDs) will be going up against the nation’s 23rd best run defense. Although the Cougars have a stout front seven, I still expect the OSU gameplan to include plenty of ‘Quizz. If the Beavers establish a ground game early, QB Sean Canfield and Co. should have plenty of opportunities in the passing game.

This will be the fifth year in a row that BYU has played a Pac-10 school in the Las Vegas Bowl (2-2 entering this contest). I have no doubt that the Cougs will be ready for OSU, but something tells me this one could go a lot like the Arizona-BYU game in last year’s Vegas Bowl. The Beavers have enough firepower to score with BYU, and I actually think OSU would prefer a shootout.

I’ll take Oregon State in a competitive and entertaining game.

Prediction: Oregon State 37 – BYU 31

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: DT Stephen Paea – For Mark Banker’s defense to frustrate BYU’s offense I believe Paea will be a key. Few defensive tackles are as effective as he is at wreaking havoc in the middle, and that could cause trouble for Max Hall and the Cougars.

BYU Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Dennis Pitta – Pitta is one of the best tight ends in America, and could be a huge match-up problem for OSU. I expect the Mackey Award finalist to be an integral part of the Cougars offensive gameplan.

Dave’s Take (55 – 20):

Well this is a difficult task. I think BYU is going to win this game, but I can’t quite put my finger on why.

We could talk about bowl motivation, and how after suffering the letdown of not going to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State won’t want to be here.

But that doesn’t really work, considering they won under the same circumstances last year, and with five straight bowl game victories, motivation doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Beavers.

We could talk about how the Cougars are statistically stronger across the board, but what does that really prove? The Pac-10 top to bottom this year was arguably the strongest conference in the country while the Mountain West was fairly weak after the top 3.

BYU got both TCU and Utah at home, getting blown out by the Horned Frogs and squeaking by the Utes in OT. That OT thriller was their second huge win of the season, the first coming in the massive upset over Oklahoma in week one. That one was a bit tarnished by Bradford’s injury, but they were playing hard even before the injury took place.

Maybe it is those big marquee wins that have me leaning BYU’s way?

We all know how strong of a team Oregon State is; they were, after all, in a position to win the Pac-10 with a win over Oregon, and they pushed the Ducks to the limit in a hard-faught game. Losses to USC and Arizona also came by less then a touchdown.

But when it comes to big wins, the Beavers only had two wins against teams above .500; Stanford and Cal. Both very good teams at 8-4, but would you consider either win a marquee win? Stanford struggled on the road this season (with the exception of USC of course), and Cal is such a quirky team that you never know what to expect from them.

Does any of this matter? Probably not. But I guess the reason I like BYU here is that these two teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, but the Cougars have shown me that they can dig deep and win the close game late against tough opponents (Oklahoma, Utah). Oregon State beat Cal and Stanford by jumping out to big early leads and hanging on; they haven’t shown us yet this season that they can win close against tough teams, and that might be the main reason they are here instead of in Pasedena in the first place.

I expect this game to come down to the fourth quarter, and Max Hall to have a few more tricks up his sleeve.

Prediction: BYU 31 – Oregon State 27