Emerald Bowl: Boston College Eagles VS. USC Trojans
EMERALD BOWL
San Francisco, California
Boston College Eagles (8-4) VS. #24 USC Trojans (8-4)
Saturday, December 26, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -7.0
Sam’s Take (55 – 22):
This year’s Emerald Bowl features two programs that entered the season with entirely different expectations. On December 26th, both USC and BC will meet in San Francisco sporting 8-4 records.
For the Trojans, this game represents the last chapter of a forgettable season. Pete Carroll is a master motivator, but even he must have trouble getting motivated for a second-tier bowl after 7 BCS appearances in a row.
Meanwhile, the folks of Chestnut Hill have to be thrilled with how this season has gone. Sure Boston College entered 2009 with a 10-year bowl streak, but extending that streak to 11 was no sure thing considering the turmoil within the program (head coach fired early in year, QB transferred out of program, star player diagnosed with cancer). First year head coach Frank Spaziani has done a fantastic job with this BC team and a win over a program like ‘SC would be icing on the cake.
While I certainly think the motivation edge lies with Boston College, the talent advantage is just as tilted in favor of the Trojans. In my opinion this bowl will be a success for ‘SC if QB Matt Barkley starts looking like a sophomore. It’s fair to say Barkley has struggled in 2009, so it’s critical for the future of the program that he plays well after an extra month of practice. BC is very good against the run (15th nationally in run defense) so Barkley and the passing game may be called upon more than normal.
While I can see the Eagles holding down the Trojans offense, I do not believe the BC offense will fare well against an ‘SC defense that is still full of elite talent. Boston College ranks 97th nationally in total offense and that won’t cut it against Pete Carroll’s squad.
I like ‘SC to win in semi-comfortable fashion.
Prediction: USC 27 – Boston College 13
Boston College Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Montel Harris – Harris is an excellent tailback who has rushed for over 1,300 yards and 13 TDs in 2009. The Trojans had trouble with talented tailbacks this season (Gerhart, Rodgers, James) so BC will be looking to get Harris going early.
USC Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Damian Williams – This will be Williams final game for ‘SC and I’m sure he will want to go out with a bang. He has 821 yards receiving this season, so a big day could result in a 1,000-yard season (and a good resume builder for the NFL Draft).
Dave’s Take (56 – 20):
Generally in a game like this I’d be giving a very strong look at a Boston College upset based on the motivation factor; BC will be thrilled at an oppotunity to play against a team like USC, while USC will be bummed to even be here and could be caught sleeping. Honestly though, I’m not really buying that in this game.
In fact, I’d argue that this game might have more motivation for the Trojans than two of the last three Rose Bowl games.
Despite dropping to Oregon State back in the 2006 season, USC was still in position to play for a national championship that year until their plans were foiled by rival UCLA. Last season, USC once again lost to Oregon State, but from that point forward they were unbeaten while putting together one of the best season-long defensive efforts of all time. Both of these years, the Rose Bowl felt like a consolation to the National Championship, which in ‘06 they let slip away, and in ‘08 they felt they deserved, but so goes the BCS.
This year? No near-misses. The Washington upset looked like this year’s annual stumbling block for the Trojans, but it was in fact just a sign of things to come; they were flat out out-played and dominated by Oregon, and then again on their home turf by Stanford. To add insult to injury, everything shaped up for them to secure a Holiday Bowl berth with a home win over Arizona; and once again, they fell short.
If this team has any pride whatsoever, motivation should NOT be an issue. Preseason expectations are long gone, and in their place should be a desire to take out the frustrations of a lackluster 2009 campaign on a very beatable opponent.
Considering how great of a job Pete Carroll does at preparing and motivating for bowls, I think he can get close to a best effort out of the team, which should be more than enough.
Prediction: USC 31 – Boston College 13
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