Thank you,
Dave and Sam

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
Pasadena, California
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) VS. #7 Oregon Ducks (10-2)
Friday, January 1, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -4.0

Sam’s Take (58 – 23):

One of the most memorable seasons in Oregon football history will come to an end on Friday, as the Ducks are looking to win their first Rose Bowl since 1917. Chip Kelly’s squad has been through it all in 2009, and when you consider how the season started there is no doubt that Kelly and his staff deserve all the praise they have received.

As for The Ohio State University, this game represents yet another opportunity to prove its worth on the big stage. Clearly, marquee non-conference wins have been tough to come by for the Buckeyes, but its important to realize that Jim Tressel’s team is almost always involved in the BCS by seasons end (a commendable achievement). OSU will be making its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1997.

The most exciting match-up to watch for in this one will be the high-octane Ducks offense versus the highly underrated OSU defense. We have watched the Ducks run roughshod over opposing defenses all season, but could this Buckeye defense do what Boise State did all the way back in week one? A look at the numbers reveals a tale of two units that are very evenly matched. The Ducks head to Pasadena with the 7th best scoring offense in the country and the sixth best rushing attack, while the Bucks will counter with a D that ranks 5th nationally in total defense and 5th nationally in run defense. Should be fun right?

While I hold the OSU D in high regard, I don’t think Jim Heacock’s unit has faced a team like Oregon. Attempting to simulate Chip Kelly’s offense with a scout team is fruitless, as there is no way to truly recreate the misdirection. QB Jeremiah Masoli runs the zone read as well as any player in football, and I expect him to have more success this Friday. OSU’s defense is good enough to slow UO down at times, but I expect the quick strike Ducks to be locked in for most of the day.

The OSU offense has been inconsistent all season, and it doesn’t help that QB Terrelle Pryor is playing with a torn PCL (which he believes won’t be an issue). Still, the Buckeyes have a strong enough running game to make things interesting. If OSU can effectively run the ball with Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, Pryor may be able to connect on play action passes rather than using his feet to make plays.

There are plenty of reasons why Ohio State should be incredibly motivated for this game, but I just don’t think they are the better team. Oregon has played at an exceptionally high level in all three phases of the game for the majority of the season, and they have an overabundance of something that has given OSU trouble for the past three years… speed. I expect the Buckeyes to fight hard and make it a game, but I like the Ducks by six.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – Ohio State 24

Ohio State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR DeVier Posey – OSU will need big plays in the passing game, especially if the Oregon offense gets going early. Posey is a prototypical big play receiver with great speed and hands. He led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: DE/LB Kenny Rowe – Rowe has been a terror for opposing QBs all season, as he has racked up 8.5 sacks this season. Ohio State has not blocked players like Rowe very well over the last few years, and I expect his quickness and speed off the edge to disrupt Pryor throughout the game.

Dave’s Take (60 – 21):

No disrespect to THE Ohio State University, but in my honest opinion, the only way Oregon loses this game is if they beat themselves.

Thinking back to the Boise State game, it was clear that the Ducks offense wasn’t up to game speed. Granted, there is a big difference between a full offseason and a month or so, but this offense relies on having it’s timing down pat. If Oregon comes out clicking like they have been since late September, even OSU’s tough D will have trouble keeping the Ducks out of the high 30’s in scoring.

Ohio State has a great football team, but I believe Oregon will be too creative for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Nick Alliotti will be sure to dial up plenty of creative blitz packages to keep Terrelle Pryor (who won’t be at 100%) on his toes, and as I stated before, there just isn’t much to be done against Oregon’s offense, regardless of how strong your defensive unit may be.

Ohio State obviously has a massive chip on their shoulder, but that chip has been there for a few years now and hasn’t gotten them over the top. This year they play an Oregon team that fought their hearts out to win the Pac-10, so I doubt there will be any lack of motivation on their side.

Regardless of the game’s outcome, this bowl season will be chalked up as a disappointment. The losing record is obvious enough, but the ugly fashion in how the games were lost (other than Stanford, who fought hard without Andrew Luck) didn’t help lessen the blow. Furthermore, a win over Ohio State won’t get the Ducks the credit they deserve due to OSU’s recent bowl history; a loss, however, would make a bad bowl season for the Pac-10 a devestating one.

But I don’t think we’ll be seeing an Oregon loss this New Year’s Day. I expect the momentum of the regular season to carry over into a comfortable Ducks victory.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Ohio State 20

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS
Las Vegas, Nevada
#18 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) VS. #14 BYU Cougars (10-2)
Tuesday, December 22, 5:00 PM PST

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
San Diego, California
#23 Utah Utes (9-3) VS. Cal Bears (8-4)
Wednesday, December 23, 5:00 PM PST

EMERALD BOWL
San Francisco, California
Boston College Eagles (8-4) VS. #24 USC Trojans (8-4)
Saturday, December 26, 5:00 PM PST

PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
San Diego, California
#20 Arizona Wildcats (8-4) VS. #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4)
Wednesday, December 30, 5:00 PM PST

BRUT SUN BOWL
El Paso, Texas
Oklahoma Sooners (7-5) VS. #21 Stanford Cardinal (8-4)
Thursday, December 31, 11:00 AM PST

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
Pasadena, California
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) VS. #7 Oregon Ducks (10-2)
Friday, January 1, 1:30 PM PST

UCLA – *UCLA will receive invite to the EagleBank Bowl if Navy defeats Army

Oregon State Beavers (8-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (9-2)
Thursday, December 3, 6:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -9.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Year*

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Last year I watched in stunned silence as Oregon throttled Oregon State in Corvallis, and all I remember thinking by the time the 65-38 massacre ended was “Will the Beavers ever have a chance to truly get redemption?” Here we are just one year later, and somehow, that question can be answered with an emphatic yes. Now the stakes are higher than ever, as this will be the first time in the history of the Civil War that both programs can clinch a Rose Bowl berth with a victory.

I see two key areas that will be deciding factors in the War for the Roses.

1. Oregon running game vs. Oregon State run defense – This is the most obvious strength vs. strength match up. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-10 and eighth nationally in rushing offense, while the Beavers rank first in the Pac-10 and 13th nationally in run defense. Obviously Oregon easily won this battle last year, so it will be interesting to see how Mark Banker’s unit performs on Thursday.

2. Oregon State passing game vs. Oregon pass defense – This appears to be the second biggest strength vs. strength match up. OSU heads to Eugene with the best passing offense in the Pac-10 (24th nationally) and QB Sean Canfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference. Despite season ending injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper, the Ducks still rank second in the Pac-10 against pass (29th nationally).

In my opinion, both defenses will struggle in this game. I have no doubt that Mark Banker will have a great game plan this week, but it may not matter. When the Ducks are rolling, they can execute their high-powered attack against any defensive scheme in the country. I also think Nick Aliotti’s unit will be in for a long game. The Ducks have yet to face ‘Quizz Rodgers, and the balanced Beaver attack can score in a variety of ways.

Ultimately, I believe Autzen Stadium will be the difference… again. Jeremiah Masoli has another gear when he plays at home, which makes Oregon’s offensive attack that much tougher to contain. I expect Masoli and LaMichael James to get going early, which will then open passing lanes for the talented Ducks receiving corps. While I expect the Beavers to match UO score for score until late in the second half, Mike Riley’s club will come up a little short in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

Here’s hoping for a classic!

Prediction: Oregon 42 – Oregon State 38

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni has been one of the biggest surprises on this OSU offense in 2009, and the sophomore will be a huge part of the passing game again this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: FS T.J. Ward – Ward is a physical defensive back who should play a huge role in defending the run as well as the pass. I look for him to have a big impact this week.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

When this game was scheduled back at the beginning of the season to be the prime time game on ESPN Thursday night, no one could have imagined just how big this game would be.

For either team to have the chance to clinch the Rose Bowl in this one is quite a feat; but winner take all? This is the sort of thing that you see in movies.

After going 10 straight years (1997-2006) trading blows with the home team winning every time, Oregon State finally bucked the trend in 2007 with a double OT winner at Autzen. The Ducks returned the favor in 2008, stomping the Beavers in Corvallis and costiing them a trip to the Rose Bowl. While there is little doubt that home field advantage will still play a big role in this game, the fact that the road team has won the last two games adds an interesting wrinkle.

As much as I really do believe the Beavers have a great chance in this one, I can’t pick against the Ducks, especially at home. The Ducks have now put up 42+ points in seven straight games that Jeremiah Masoli has started, and since conference play has begun they have just mowed through top conference opponents (dropping #6 Cal by 38 and #5 USC by 27).

I expect a much more competitive game than last year, but can’t find enough of an edge for the Beavers to overrule the fact that the game is in Autzen.

Prediction: Oregon 48 – Oregon State 42

Oregon Ducks 9-2 Overall (7-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 44 – Arizona 41 (2OT)

Next Week’s Opponent: BYE

Oregon and Arizona treated the college football world to an instant classic on Saturday (and ESPN agrees as the game will be rebroadcast on ESPN Classic this week). The Ducks spectacular win at Arizona Stadium featured everything you could ask for in a game with Rose Bowl implications: great defense, amazing offense, brilliant individual efforts, thrilling runs and passes, and a raucous environment (in fact, a little too raucous considering the unfortunate bottle throwing incident after the game).

What else can be said about QB Jeremiah Masoli? He really is the kind of game changer that causes defensive coordinators to lose their minds. Make no mistake about it, Mark Stoops had a tremendous game plan and his swarming ‘Cats defense executed it beautifully for most of the night. But when Masoli gets in a groove there is nothing a defense can do about it. The junior accounted for six total touchdowns (3 rushing, 3 passing) and accumulated 345 yards of offense (284 passing, 61 rushing).

Maybe most impressive of all was the fact that the ‘Zona D forced Masoli into difficult passing situations throughout the game (a key to slowing the UO offense). But instead of wilting under the pressure, Masoli seemed to elevate his game to an even higher level in the most critical moments. What an inspiring performance.

RB LaMichael James had a solid day (19 carries 117 yards), and Ducks fans have to be especially thrilled that he broke Jaquizz Rodgers Pac-10 freshman rushing record (James now has 1,310 yards). Obviously WR Jeff Maehl and TE Ed Dickson came up huge (especially at the end of the game), but I was also very impressed with the play of WR Lavasier Tuinei (4 catches 60 yards).

Nick Aliotti’s unit played as hard as they possibly could, and they performed very well considering the potency of the UA offense. QB Nick Foles was spectacular, but the UO defense deserves credit for maintaining the type of poise and composure that wins championships.

I made it pretty clear in recent write-ups how excited I was for the possibility of a Civil War for all the marbles. Well, here we are! The Ducks and Beavers are playing incredible football right now, and I can’t even imagine what the atmosphere at Autzen will be like.

It seems like Oregon fans have seen it all this season, but amazingly, the defining moment of this memorable 2009 season is still to come. Pac-10 fans can only hope the game on December 3rd is as good as the one we just witnessed in Tucson.

Short Answer:

Oregon and Arizona both control their own destiny, and if they win out, they are in.

Oregon State only needs a single Arizona loss to get in if they beat Oregon.

Stanford needs a perfect storm, but it isn’t impossible. They need a win over Cal, Arizona to beat Oregon, Oregon to beat Oregon State, and Arizona to lose a game (to ASU or USC).

Long Answer:

For OREGON to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Arizona, win over Oregon State…

- (Pac-10 clinched)

With win over Arizona, loss to Oregon State…

- (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

With loss to Arizona, win over Oregon State…

- (Arizona loss to ASU OR USC) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

With loss to Arizona, loss to Oregon State…

- (Eliminated)

For STANFORD to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Cal…

- (Oregon loss to Arizona) AND (Arizona loss to ASU OR USC) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State OR Oregon)

*In this scenario, Stanford wins outright or ends up in a tie (7-2) with Oregon, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

OR

- (Arizona loss to Oregon) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Oregon loss to Oregon State)

*In this scenario, Stanford ends up in a tie (7-2) with Oregon, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

With loss to Cal…

- (Eliminated)

For OREGON STATE to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Washington State, win over Oregon…

- (Arizona loss to Oregon OR ASU OR USC)

*In this scenario, Oregon State wins outright or ends up in a tie (7-2) with Oregon and/or Stanford, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both.

With loss to Washington State, win over Oregon…

- (Oregon loss to Arizona) AND (Stanford loss to Cal) AND (Arizona loss to ASU AND USC)

*In this scenario, Oregon State ends up in a tie (6-3) with Oregon, Stanford, and potentially Cal and USC. If it is a four-way tie with Oregon, Stanford, and Cal, Oregon State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over all three. If it is a five-way tie, Oregon State holds the best record among the group of five. If it is a four-way tie among Oregon, Stanford, and USC, USC and Oregon are eliminated for having two losses in the group of four, and Oregon State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Stanford.

With win over Washington State, loss to Oregon…

- (Eliminated)

With loss to Washington State, loss to Oregon…

- (Eliminated)

For ARIZONA to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Oregon, win over Arizona State, win over USC…

- (Pac-10 clinched)

With loss to Arizona State, win over Oregon, win over USC…

- (Oregon loss to Oregon State) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

*In this scenario, Arizona ends in a tie (6-3) with Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State, and potentially Cal. If it is a four-way tie with Oregon, Stanford, and Oregon State, Arizona holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over all three. If it is a five-way tie, Arizona and Oregon State have the best records among the group at 3-1, and Arizona holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oregon State.

With loss to USC, win over Arizona State, win over Oregon…

- (Oregon loss to Oregon State) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

*Same as above.

With loss to Oregon, win over Arizona State, win over USC…

- (Eliminated)

With two or three losses…

- (Eliminated)

That about sums it up. Easy enough, right?

Oregon Ducks (8-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (6-3)
Saturday, November 21, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.0
*AllPac10 Game of the Week*

Sam’s Take (46 – 18):

The race to Pasadena stops in Tucson this week, and so will ESPN College Gameday. Both Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny in the Pac-10 title race, while the fate of Oregon State and Stanford will dramatically change depending on the outcome in this one.

The recent history between Oregon and Arizona leads me to believe we are in for another entertaining thriller. Oregon has lost two of their last three games against UA, and the ‘Cats have upset a Top 25 team at home in five straight seasons.

Stanford proved that it is possible to beat the Ducks in a shootout, as long as you have an excellent QB and a balanced offensive attack. Check and check for Arizona, as QB Nick Foles actually out dueled Andrew Luck earlier this season in a 43-38 UA win. RB Nic Grigsby is expected to play, and when healthy, he provides the ‘Cats with the same dynamic ability that LaMichael James brings to UO. Arizona also has a very capable defense with tremendous speed at all three levels (UA 18th nationally in total defense), so ‘Zona has all the ingredients necessary to pull the upset.

Having said all of that, I believe the Ducks will rise to the occasion. Unless Mike Stoops finds a way to clone QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaMichael James, there is no way the scout team will adequately prepare UA for that tremendous misdirection spread attack. I also think Nick Aliotti’s underrated defense will prevent UA’s quick passing attack from establishing a rhythm. Sonny Dykes offense is predicated on timing, but all of the receiver screens and quick slants can be thwarted by a disruptive defense (something the Ducks clearly have).

Chip Kelly’s team understands what is on the line this week, and I fully expect to see Oregon’s best effort of the season on Saturday. The Ducks have certainly had their struggles on the road this year, but I believe they are due for a big game away from Autzen.

I think Oregon wins a high-scoring affair at the Old Pueblo, which should setup one of the best Civil War games of all time.

Prediction: Oregon 38 – Arizona 28

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Cliff Harris – Harris is one of the best young corners in the Pac-10, and the freshman will have to be at his best against a talented UA receiving corps.

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR/KR Travis Cobb – I think Arizona will need to get something big out of the kick return game Saturday, and Cobb has already proven he can take it the distance (95 yard TD return two weeks ago).

Dave’s Take (49 – 15):

Honestly, I really don’t know what to do with myself in this game.

At first, I thought I was going to be hand-down-no-question picking Oregon. After all, it seems to be an all but forgone conclusion that they are going to put up 40+ points no matter who they are playing against; and while the defense got beat up by Stanford, it has been fairly strong all season.

But is it a sure thing that Oregon runs rampant on Arizona’s defense? It’s always difficult to actually try to look at numbers or matchups or anything else when breaking down Oregon’s offense; they just seem to shred through everything. But am I crazy for thinking that maybe, just maybe, Arizona’s very fast and talented defense might stand some chance in slowing them down a little bit?

Furthermore, why are we so quick to write off Arizona? This team did top both Stanford and Oregon State, so they have proven that they can play with the conference’s best. Nic Grigsby’s return should take some of the pressure off of Nick Foles as well.

And than there is the whole Arizona home-field advantage issue. I believe it is blown a bit out of proportion considering that both of Oregon’s losses came against excellent teams (and they are much better now than they were against Boise State), so it isn’t like the Ducks are as hopeless on the road as some are making them out to be. On the other hand, can we completely ignore that Oregon is 2-2 on the road (with the two wins coming over weak opponents in UCLA and UW), and Arizona is a perfect 5-0 at home (including wins over Central Michigan and Stanford)?

I’m not going to say that Arizona is the “better team”, but I will say they’ve got more of a chance than they are getting credit for in this one. Andrew Luck exploited Oregon’s beat up secondary, and I could see Nick Foles doing the same. It will take a near-perfect game on both sides of the ball to pull it off, but something tells me the ‘Cats have it in them.

Prediction: Arizona 41 – Oregon 38

Oregon Ducks 8-2 Overall (6-1 Conference)

This Week’s Score: Oregon 44 – Arizona State 21

Next Week’s Opponent: @Arizona

On the surface, this was just a business-as-usual week for the Oregon Ducks; but a quick look around the conference, and it was actually a very nice Saturday.

Starting with the obvious, the offense just kept on rolling, even against a very strong Arizona State defense and front seven. Despite a fairly quiet passing day (10/20, 120 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), this marked the 6th straight game that Jeremiah Masoli has led the Ducks to a 40+ point performance. LaMichael James once again led the way on the ground, silencing concerns of an RB controversy with 150 yards and three touchdowns on 22 carries. Even for a high-powered offense that you expect to put up a ton of points each week, the consistency has been phenomenal.

On the less obvious side of things, Ducks fans should be happy with what they saw in the Stanford/USC and the Arizona/Cal games. After the Stanford loss, many Ducks fans were becoming increasingly worried about the Arizona game being on the road, since the Ducks haven’t proven they can beat a tough team on the road yet.

While these concerns may still be there, I think the fact that Stanford just destroyed USC in the Coliseum should help Oregon fans realize that it wasn’t just a case of road woes against a decent opponent; it was a hard fought loss to a very legitimate opponent.

Had Arizona gone into Cal and continued to roll offensively and picked up a big win, they’d have a ton of momentum heading into this week. Instead, they fell short and had a pedestrian day on offense. It doesn’t make the game this Saturday any less daunting, but playing huge games in November is new territory for the ‘Cats; having some seeds of doubt planted isn’t a bad thing for Oregon fans.

So on we go. Two wins away from a meeting with Ohio State at the Rose Bowl. One loss away from a myriad of tiebreaker possibilities, very few of which favor the Ducks. Can the Ducks claim the throne? We will soon find out.