ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
Pasadena, California
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) VS. #7 Oregon Ducks (10-2)
Friday, January 1, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -4.0

Sam’s Take (58 – 23):

One of the most memorable seasons in Oregon football history will come to an end on Friday, as the Ducks are looking to win their first Rose Bowl since 1917. Chip Kelly’s squad has been through it all in 2009, and when you consider how the season started there is no doubt that Kelly and his staff deserve all the praise they have received.

As for The Ohio State University, this game represents yet another opportunity to prove its worth on the big stage. Clearly, marquee non-conference wins have been tough to come by for the Buckeyes, but its important to realize that Jim Tressel’s team is almost always involved in the BCS by seasons end (a commendable achievement). OSU will be making its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1997.

The most exciting match-up to watch for in this one will be the high-octane Ducks offense versus the highly underrated OSU defense. We have watched the Ducks run roughshod over opposing defenses all season, but could this Buckeye defense do what Boise State did all the way back in week one? A look at the numbers reveals a tale of two units that are very evenly matched. The Ducks head to Pasadena with the 7th best scoring offense in the country and the sixth best rushing attack, while the Bucks will counter with a D that ranks 5th nationally in total defense and 5th nationally in run defense. Should be fun right?

While I hold the OSU D in high regard, I don’t think Jim Heacock’s unit has faced a team like Oregon. Attempting to simulate Chip Kelly’s offense with a scout team is fruitless, as there is no way to truly recreate the misdirection. QB Jeremiah Masoli runs the zone read as well as any player in football, and I expect him to have more success this Friday. OSU’s defense is good enough to slow UO down at times, but I expect the quick strike Ducks to be locked in for most of the day.

The OSU offense has been inconsistent all season, and it doesn’t help that QB Terrelle Pryor is playing with a torn PCL (which he believes won’t be an issue). Still, the Buckeyes have a strong enough running game to make things interesting. If OSU can effectively run the ball with Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, Pryor may be able to connect on play action passes rather than using his feet to make plays.

There are plenty of reasons why Ohio State should be incredibly motivated for this game, but I just don’t think they are the better team. Oregon has played at an exceptionally high level in all three phases of the game for the majority of the season, and they have an overabundance of something that has given OSU trouble for the past three years… speed. I expect the Buckeyes to fight hard and make it a game, but I like the Ducks by six.

Prediction: Oregon 30 – Ohio State 24

Ohio State Player to Keep an Eye On: WR DeVier Posey – OSU will need big plays in the passing game, especially if the Oregon offense gets going early. Posey is a prototypical big play receiver with great speed and hands. He led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: DE/LB Kenny Rowe – Rowe has been a terror for opposing QBs all season, as he has racked up 8.5 sacks this season. Ohio State has not blocked players like Rowe very well over the last few years, and I expect his quickness and speed off the edge to disrupt Pryor throughout the game.

Dave’s Take (60 – 21):

No disrespect to THE Ohio State University, but in my honest opinion, the only way Oregon loses this game is if they beat themselves.

Thinking back to the Boise State game, it was clear that the Ducks offense wasn’t up to game speed. Granted, there is a big difference between a full offseason and a month or so, but this offense relies on having it’s timing down pat. If Oregon comes out clicking like they have been since late September, even OSU’s tough D will have trouble keeping the Ducks out of the high 30’s in scoring.

Ohio State has a great football team, but I believe Oregon will be too creative for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Nick Alliotti will be sure to dial up plenty of creative blitz packages to keep Terrelle Pryor (who won’t be at 100%) on his toes, and as I stated before, there just isn’t much to be done against Oregon’s offense, regardless of how strong your defensive unit may be.

Ohio State obviously has a massive chip on their shoulder, but that chip has been there for a few years now and hasn’t gotten them over the top. This year they play an Oregon team that fought their hearts out to win the Pac-10, so I doubt there will be any lack of motivation on their side.

Regardless of the game’s outcome, this bowl season will be chalked up as a disappointment. The losing record is obvious enough, but the ugly fashion in how the games were lost (other than Stanford, who fought hard without Andrew Luck) didn’t help lessen the blow. Furthermore, a win over Ohio State won’t get the Ducks the credit they deserve due to OSU’s recent bowl history; a loss, however, would make a bad bowl season for the Pac-10 a devestating one.

But I don’t think we’ll be seeing an Oregon loss this New Year’s Day. I expect the momentum of the regular season to carry over into a comfortable Ducks victory.

Prediction: Oregon 34 – Ohio State 20

BRUT SUN BOWL
El Paso, Texas
Oklahoma Sooners (7-5) VS. #21 Stanford Cardinal (8-4)
Thursday, December 31, 11:00 AM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oklahoma -10.0

Sam’s Take (57 – 23):

There is plenty to like about this year’s Sun Bowl, as it pits one of the rising stars of the coaching profession (Jim Harbaugh) against one of the sport’s best over the last decade (Bob Stoops). We will also see one of the nation’s premier running backs (Toby Gerhart) take on a defense full of NFL talent that ranked 7th nationally in total defense this season. Unfortunately, the one thing we won’t see is a dream quarterback dual between Sam Bradford and freshman phenom Andrew Luck, but it should still be a fun game in El Paso.

The biggest question heading into the Sun Bowl is how effective the Stanford running game can be without Luck at the helm. Certainly Gerhart is the heart and soul of the team, but I question whether the Cardinal offensive line can open up space against an Oklahoma d-line that is downright nasty (Sooners ranked 7th nationally against the run). With Tavita Pritchard under center this Stanford offense looks more like it did in 2008, and that team went 5-7. If the Cardinal cannot stay moderately balanced on offense, it could be a long day for the Heisman runner-up.

Oklahoma may not be lighting the scoreboard on fire like it did with Bradford running the show, but this team is still full of explosive talent. Stanford’s defense has been susceptible throughout the season, especially through the air. I expect QB Landry Jones and the Sooners powerful passing attack (17th nationally in passing offense) to give the Cardinal defense problems all day (Stanford ranked 105th nationally against pass).

There is still a slight chance that Andrew Luck could play at some point during the game, but I am not confident that he will be healthy enough to make a difference. I expect the ultra-talented Oklahoma defense to load the box against Gerhart, and it’s hard for me to believe that Pritchard will make the Sooners pay.

I like Oklahoma in this one.

Prediction: Oklahoma 34 – Stanford 24

Oklahoma Player to Keep an Eye On: DT Gerald McCoy – McCoy is an All-American and a dominant presence in the middle of the Sooner defensive line. He will likely be a top ten pick in this year’s draft, so the Stanford o-line will have its hands full.

Stanford Player to Keep an Eye On: FB Owen Marecic – Marecic is one of the best fullbacks in college football and he will have to play like it in this game. He is a deceptively good receiver but is at his best when lead blocking for Gerhart.

Dave’s Take (59 – 21):

It really is a shame that Andrew Luck won’t be able to play in the bowl game he helped lead this team to.

Without him, I’m just not sure that Stanford has the versatility to have success on offense against a tough Oklahoma defense. Needless to say, Toby Gerhart will get a healthy dose of carries and yards and will likely cross the goalline once or twice, too; but without Luck there to keep the defense honest, the Sooners can hone in on stopping the run, and while you can’t STOP a player like Toby Gerhart, you can certainly slow him down if the passing game is neutralized by the lack of a serious threat at quarterback.

The Cardinals’ defense has for the most part fed off of the offense’s energy this season, which poses a problem when considering the likelihood of a tough day offensively. Despite Sam Bradford’s absence, Oklahoma still has a very dangerous offense, and they will likely put up their share of points.

I’m sure that Coach Harbaugh will have his team jacked up for the game, but I just don’t think the Cardinal have the tools with Andrew Luck out to compete against Oklahoma if the Sooners are at their best, which I expect them to be after a frustrating season on their end.

Prediction: Oklahoma 31 – Stanford 17

PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
San Diego, California
#20 Arizona Wildcats (8-4) VS. #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4)
Wednesday, December 30, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Nebraska -3.0

Sam’s Take (57 – 22):

There is little doubt that Nebraska will have the best player on the field in tomorrow’s Holiday Bowl, but will the dominance of Ndamukong Suh and the Nebraska defense be enough to overcome a more complete Arizona team? The Wildcats are full of athleticism on both sides of the ball, and possess a significantly better offense than the Cornhuskers.

Both of these teams dealt with some incredibly bitter defeats in 2009. Nebraska lost three games (Virginia Tech, Iowa State, and Texas) by a combined four points. Arizona lost leads late in the fourth quarter of three games (Washington, Cal, Oregon). So what does that tell us about this match-up? Well it is certainly clear that both teams are used to playing close games, and I will be interested to see which team finishes stronger in what is sure to be another closely contested contest.

I have no doubt that the Blackshirts will be at their best in San Diego for Bo Pelini’s squad. However, it is important to note that while the Huskers D has been magnificent (9th nationally in total D, 2nd nationally in scoring D), Arizona has one heck of a defensive unit as well. The ‘Cats finished the regular season 21st nationally in total defense, and that should serve UA especially well against a Nebraska offense that ranks 102nd in total offense.

I believe the difference in this game will be the Arizona offense. Sonny Dykes system is predicated on the quick passing game, and I therefore expect QB Nick Foles to elude Suh by getting the ball out right away. The return of RB Nic Grigsby also figures to be a huge boost to ‘Zona, as it gives the ground game a true home run threat. I don’t expect the ‘Cats offense to light up the scoreboard by any means, but I think the unit will come up with a few key drives.

The Holiday Bowl is always one of the most exciting games of the post-season and I expect this game to be another thriller. While we may not get offensive fireworks, fans of defense should be glued to their seats all night.

In the end, I expect the Wildcats to squeak out a win.

Prediction: Arizona 17 – Nebraska 14

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Juron Criner – Criner has been a clutch playmaker for UA all season, and against a talented defense that doesn’t allow big plays, he may have to play his best game of the year.

Nebraska Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Niles Paul – Like Criner, Paul has proven to be a playmaker for the Huskers throughout the season. He is a deep threat receiver who can also make a difference in the return game.

Dave’s Take (59 – 20):

This one definitely has the look and feel of an evenly-matched slugfest, and should be a lot of fun to watch.

I like Arizona in this one, but for a somewhat peculiar reason; Ndamukong Suh.

Don’t get me wrong; it isn’t like I think he’s overrated or anything. He is every bit deserving of all of the accolades he is receiving. But because he is as amazing of a talent as he is, the Holiday Bowl has essentially become the Ndamukong Suh Showcase Bowl in the eyes of many.

The Heisman Trophy Winner going on to lose in their bowl game (has happened to 5 of the last 6 winners) has now picked up a name; the “Heisman Curse”. But this one is no Billy Goat/Voodoo type of deal; there is logic to it. When the media spends an entire month clamoring over a player, not only is it a distraction for that player, but more importantly, it adds a huge chip to the shoulders of the opposing team.

In a sport like football where motivation and intensity plays such a big role in determining winners, being ignored by the media in favor of the other team’s stars is one of the biggest motivators out there. While Suh didn’t win the Heisman, he might as well have with all of the (deserved) hype he is getting; Defensive Player of the Year, projected first overall pick in the NFL, etc.

Arizona, meanwhile, who had one of their greatest football seasons ever, has been virtually ignored. No love for playing such a hard fought game against Oregon; they lost, after all. No love for going into USC and beating the Trojans IN the Coliseum; Stanford just did that, and “this isn’t the same USC team”. Now, once again, they find themselves overlooked.

Needless to say, both teams will be plenty motivated. But I think that the Wildcats have that extra chip on their shoulder as they likely feel they have more to prove, and I think they can pull it off.

Prediction: Arizona 16 – Nebraska 12

EAGLEBANK BOWL
Washington, D.C.
UCLA Bruins (6-6) VS. Temple Owls (9-3)
Tuesday, December 29, 1:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: UCLA -4.5

Sam’s Take (56 – 22):

For the first time ever, UCLA and Temple will meet on a football field. The Bruins (with help from Navy) travel to Washington D.C. with a chance at a winning season. Meanwhile, Temple enters the EagleBank Bowl as one of the feel good stories of the 2009 season. The Owls are making just their third bowl appearance in program history.

The Bruins and Owls share quite a few statistical similarities, as both teams struggle on offense (UCLA 88th nationally in total offense, Temple 89th) but are considerably better defensively (UCLA 39th in total defense, Temple 37th).

If Rick Neuheisel is going to build momentum with this UCLA program then losing to Temple is out of the question. The Bruins won’t gain much respect with a win over the Owls, but a loss would set the program even further back in an increasingly competitive Pac-10 conference.

Temple hasn’t faced a team with UCLA’s talent since September 19th vs. Penn State. While I don’t expect the Owls to be blown out 31-6 (as was the case against the Nittany Lions), I do expect the Bruins to impose their will, especially on defense.

Al Golden’s club has one of the worst passing offenses in America (112th nationally in passing offense), which means UCLA will load the box to contain the excellent Temple rushing attack. DT Brian Price, LB Reggie Carter, and LB Akeem Ayers should get plenty of work.

Like many Pac-10 teams, the Bruins could use this extra month of practice time, continuing to developing freshman QB Kevin Prince. Prince was inconsistent throughout the regular season, but a solid effort on the east coast should give him something to build on heading into the off-season. Prince will face a Temple defense that ranks 74th nationally in pass defense, so he will certainly get the opportunity to make big plays.

The weather probably wont be great, and while Temple is used to playing in bad conditions I still expect UCLA to prevail. The Bruins can’t afford to take any opponent lightly and I don’t think they will overlook an Owls team that will treat this bowl like the national championship.

I expect UCLA to set the tone on defense and make enough noise on offense to pull away.

Prediction: UCLA 28 – Temple 14

UCLA Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Nelson Rosario – The physical Rosario is a difficult match-up for most defenses, and I expect the Temple DB’s to struggle with his combination of size and speed.

Temple Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Bernard Pierce – Pierce has been sensational for the Owls (1,308 yards rushing, 15 TDs) this season. He battled injury late in the season, but should be back strong for this game.

Dave’s Take (57 – 20):

If nothing else this year, UCLA showed that they could win the games they were supposed to win.

The Bruins played seven games against teams that finished with a winning record, and were 1-6 against those teams (with Tennessee being the only victory).

Against teams 6-6 or lower? A perfect 5-0.

Technically, obviously enough, Temple does fall into the winning record category. That said, picking up wins in the ultra-competitive Pac-10 and SEC is a bit more difficult than doing so in the MAC.

In fact, of the other three teams in the MAC with a winning record (Central Michigan, Ohio, and Bowling Green), Temple managed to only play one; @Ohio, a 35-17 loss.

As great of a season and a story as it has been for Temple, their very underwhelming schedule makes it hard for me to make a case that they belong in the tier of teams that beat UCLA (Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Cal, USC, Arizona) and not in the tier of teams that UCLA beat (including Kansas State and Washington).

Simply put, UCLA is the more talented team top to bottom; and when that has been the case this season, The Bruins have gone out and won the football game. Motivation shouldn’t be a problem, either; while this is only the third bowl appearance in Temple’s history, the Bruins have struggled to get into a bowl recently, and a bowl win would be a fantastic way to cap off the season.

UCLA should take care of business with a strong defensive effort and bring the Pac-10 to .500 in bowl season play.

Prediction: UCLA 27 – Temple 13

EMERALD BOWL
San Francisco, California
Boston College Eagles (8-4) VS. #24 USC Trojans (8-4)
Saturday, December 26, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -7.0

Sam’s Take (55 – 22):

This year’s Emerald Bowl features two programs that entered the season with entirely different expectations. On December 26th, both USC and BC will meet in San Francisco sporting 8-4 records.

For the Trojans, this game represents the last chapter of a forgettable season. Pete Carroll is a master motivator, but even he must have trouble getting motivated for a second-tier bowl after 7 BCS appearances in a row.

Meanwhile, the folks of Chestnut Hill have to be thrilled with how this season has gone. Sure Boston College entered 2009 with a 10-year bowl streak, but extending that streak to 11 was no sure thing considering the turmoil within the program (head coach fired early in year, QB transferred out of program, star player diagnosed with cancer). First year head coach Frank Spaziani has done a fantastic job with this BC team and a win over a program like ‘SC would be icing on the cake.

While I certainly think the motivation edge lies with Boston College, the talent advantage is just as tilted in favor of the Trojans. In my opinion this bowl will be a success for ‘SC if QB Matt Barkley starts looking like a sophomore. It’s fair to say Barkley has struggled in 2009, so it’s critical for the future of the program that he plays well after an extra month of practice. BC is very good against the run (15th nationally in run defense) so Barkley and the passing game may be called upon more than normal.

While I can see the Eagles holding down the Trojans offense, I do not believe the BC offense will fare well against an ‘SC defense that is still full of elite talent. Boston College ranks 97th nationally in total offense and that won’t cut it against Pete Carroll’s squad.

I like ‘SC to win in semi-comfortable fashion.

Prediction: USC 27 – Boston College 13

Boston College Player to Keep an Eye On: RB Montel Harris – Harris is an excellent tailback who has rushed for over 1,300 yards and 13 TDs in 2009. The Trojans had trouble with talented tailbacks this season (Gerhart, Rodgers, James) so BC will be looking to get Harris going early.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: WR Damian Williams – This will be Williams final game for ‘SC and I’m sure he will want to go out with a bang. He has 821 yards receiving this season, so a big day could result in a 1,000-yard season (and a good resume builder for the NFL Draft).

Dave’s Take (56 – 20):

Generally in a game like this I’d be giving a very strong look at a Boston College upset based on the motivation factor; BC will be thrilled at an oppotunity to play against a team like USC, while USC will be bummed to even be here and could be caught sleeping. Honestly though, I’m not really buying that in this game.

In fact, I’d argue that this game might have more motivation for the Trojans than two of the last three Rose Bowl games.

Despite dropping to Oregon State back in the 2006 season, USC was still in position to play for a national championship that year until their plans were foiled by rival UCLA. Last season, USC once again lost to Oregon State, but from that point forward they were unbeaten while putting together one of the best season-long defensive efforts of all time. Both of these years, the Rose Bowl felt like a consolation to the National Championship, which in ‘06 they let slip away, and in ‘08 they felt they deserved, but so goes the BCS.

This year? No near-misses. The Washington upset looked like this year’s annual stumbling block for the Trojans, but it was in fact just a sign of things to come; they were flat out out-played and dominated by Oregon, and then again on their home turf by Stanford. To add insult to injury, everything shaped up for them to secure a Holiday Bowl berth with a home win over Arizona; and once again, they fell short.

If this team has any pride whatsoever, motivation should NOT be an issue. Preseason expectations are long gone, and in their place should be a desire to take out the frustrations of a lackluster 2009 campaign on a very beatable opponent.

Considering how great of a job Pete Carroll does at preparing and motivating for bowls, I think he can get close to a best effort out of the team, which should be more than enough.

Prediction: USC 31 – Boston College 13

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
San Diego, California
#23 Utah Utes (9-3) VS. Cal Bears (8-4)
Wednesday, December 23, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -3.0

Sam’s Take (54 – 22):

Prior to the start of the 2009 season many Cal fans believed the Bears would play in a bowl game involving a flower, but the Poinsettia Bowl? It has certainly been an up and down year in Berkeley, and Jeff Tedford would love for his team to end a tumultuous season with a quality win over Utah.

The Utes have been nothing short of remarkable in the postseason, as they will be looking to win their ninth bowl game in a row. Cal hasn’t been too shabby either, as the Bears are looking for their fifth straight bowl victory.

I haven’t been able to properly read Cal all season, so who am I to predict how they will fare in a seemingly even non-conference game? If the Bears come out like they did in the Big Game, Utah will be in for a long night. However, if Tedford’s squad plays like it did in Seattle, its safe to say the Pac-10 will be off to an 0-2 start in bowls for 2009.

I’m not convinced Cal will play with the kind of intensity necessary to beat a team like Utah. Expectations were so high for the Bears and playing on December 23 in San Diego isn’t good enough. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Utes jump out to an early lead behind the legs of 1,000-yard rusher RB Eddie Wide and the arm of talented (and improving) freshman QB Jordan Wynn.

Cal has more talent across the board, but that has been the case in many games this season. The Bears will need QB Kevin Riley to make good decisions and RB Shane Vereen to play like he did shortly after the Jahvid Best injury. But most importantly, the defense must show up and play with passion (unlike it did against U-Dub).

Something tells me the Bears will be sluggish in this one and by the time they wake up it will be a little bit too late.

Prediction: Utah 27 – Cal 24

Utah Player to Keep an Eye On: WR David Reed – Reed is a big time player who had over 1,000 yards receiving this season. The Bears secondary was suspect for most of the year (Cal finished 108th in pass defense) so he could make quite a splash in the box score.

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Tyson Alualu – Alualu is a dominant pass rusher (7.5 sacks) and he could make life miserable for a freshman QB like Wynn.

Dave’s Take (56 – 20):

Trying to figure Cal out this season (like many seasons before it) has been an act of complete futility. When they are on, they are capable of beating just about anyone, as we saw when they upset the red-hot Stanford Cardinal (in Stanford) in the Big Game. When they aren’t, they are a very mediocre and underacheiving football team.

At least with Utah we have an idea of what we are going to get. The Utes followed up their undefeated 2008 campaign with a very respectable 9-3 record in 2009, with the three losses coming to extremely tough teams on the road in Oregon, TCU, and BYU.

Then again, those were really the only tough games on Utah’s schedule, it isn’t like they aren’t beatable. But which Cal team shows up? Might as well flip a coin.

Short of flipping that coin, my guess is that Cal comes out on the losing end here. Oregon, USC, and Oregon State all proved to be examples of games that Cal SHOULD have been extremely pumped up for that they ended up falling terribly short in. Utah on the other hand I’m much more certain will bring their best, which wouldn’t be enough against Cal’s A game, but will be if the Bears continue to underacheive.

Prediction: Utah 28 – Cal 21

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS
Las Vegas, Nevada
#18 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) VS. #14 BYU Cougars (10-2)
Tuesday, December 22, 5:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon State -2.5

Sam’s Take (54 – 21):

For the second straight season Oregon State narrowly missed out on a Pac-10 title and the pride and pageantry that comes with representing the conference in the Rose Bowl. Oh, and lets not forget about the all-you-can-eat prime rib at Lawry’s Restaurant in Pasadena. So how will the Beavers find the motivation to play in the Las Vegas Bowl? I’m not sure that they will, but Mike Riley’s club has an exceptional record in bowl games and a win vs. BYU would give OSU six bowl victories in a row.

As I look at this match-up I see two key areas that could decide the game.

1. BYU pass offense vs. OSU pass defense – Max Hall and the potent Cougar offense will be going up against an OSU secondary that struggled against the pass and will be without its most experienced cornerback (CB Tim Clark). I have no doubt Bronco Mendenhall will go right after the Beavers DBs (especially Brandon Hardin) so OSU must be ready to stand up to the pass heavy attack all night.

2. ‘Quizz Rodgers vs. BYU run defense – this is a strength vs. strength match-up as the Pac-10’s third leading rusher (1,377 20 TDs) will be going up against the nation’s 23rd best run defense. Although the Cougars have a stout front seven, I still expect the OSU gameplan to include plenty of ‘Quizz. If the Beavers establish a ground game early, QB Sean Canfield and Co. should have plenty of opportunities in the passing game.

This will be the fifth year in a row that BYU has played a Pac-10 school in the Las Vegas Bowl (2-2 entering this contest). I have no doubt that the Cougs will be ready for OSU, but something tells me this one could go a lot like the Arizona-BYU game in last year’s Vegas Bowl. The Beavers have enough firepower to score with BYU, and I actually think OSU would prefer a shootout.

I’ll take Oregon State in a competitive and entertaining game.

Prediction: Oregon State 37 – BYU 31

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: DT Stephen Paea – For Mark Banker’s defense to frustrate BYU’s offense I believe Paea will be a key. Few defensive tackles are as effective as he is at wreaking havoc in the middle, and that could cause trouble for Max Hall and the Cougars.

BYU Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Dennis Pitta – Pitta is one of the best tight ends in America, and could be a huge match-up problem for OSU. I expect the Mackey Award finalist to be an integral part of the Cougars offensive gameplan.

Dave’s Take (55 – 20):

Well this is a difficult task. I think BYU is going to win this game, but I can’t quite put my finger on why.

We could talk about bowl motivation, and how after suffering the letdown of not going to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State won’t want to be here.

But that doesn’t really work, considering they won under the same circumstances last year, and with five straight bowl game victories, motivation doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Beavers.

We could talk about how the Cougars are statistically stronger across the board, but what does that really prove? The Pac-10 top to bottom this year was arguably the strongest conference in the country while the Mountain West was fairly weak after the top 3.

BYU got both TCU and Utah at home, getting blown out by the Horned Frogs and squeaking by the Utes in OT. That OT thriller was their second huge win of the season, the first coming in the massive upset over Oklahoma in week one. That one was a bit tarnished by Bradford’s injury, but they were playing hard even before the injury took place.

Maybe it is those big marquee wins that have me leaning BYU’s way?

We all know how strong of a team Oregon State is; they were, after all, in a position to win the Pac-10 with a win over Oregon, and they pushed the Ducks to the limit in a hard-faught game. Losses to USC and Arizona also came by less then a touchdown.

But when it comes to big wins, the Beavers only had two wins against teams above .500; Stanford and Cal. Both very good teams at 8-4, but would you consider either win a marquee win? Stanford struggled on the road this season (with the exception of USC of course), and Cal is such a quirky team that you never know what to expect from them.

Does any of this matter? Probably not. But I guess the reason I like BYU here is that these two teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, but the Cougars have shown me that they can dig deep and win the close game late against tough opponents (Oklahoma, Utah). Oregon State beat Cal and Stanford by jumping out to big early leads and hanging on; they haven’t shown us yet this season that they can win close against tough teams, and that might be the main reason they are here instead of in Pasedena in the first place.

I expect this game to come down to the fourth quarter, and Max Hall to have a few more tricks up his sleeve.

Prediction: BYU 31 – Oregon State 27

Cal Bears (8-3) vs. Washington Huskies (4-7)
Saturday, December 5, 3:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Cal -7.0

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Although expectations were sky high for the 2009 Cal Bears, the season can still be a mild success. Cal’s losses have come to three ranked opponents (Oregon, OSU, USC) and a 10-win season is still very achievable.

But I’m sure Jeff Tedford doesn’t need to be reminded about how tough Husky Stadium can be for visiting teams. A four win Washington squad defeated USC and Arizona in Seattle, and the Dawgs are looking to end the year with another high quality win. Steve Sarkisian would love to finish his first season at U-Dub with positive momentum and a win over Cal could pay dividends on the recruiting trail.

Cal will be without Jahvid Best in the season finale, but the offense hasn’t missed a beat because of the brilliant running of Shane Vereen. Vereen has accumulated 352 rushing yards and four TDs in his last two games, and that could be especially bad news for a Husky defense that ranks ninth in the Pac-10 in run defense (76th nationally). I expect Vereen to have a big day, which should also open up the offense for QB Kevin Riley and the passing game.

Will this be QB Jake Locker’s last game in Seattle? There has been plenty of speculation about his future, and I’m sure he will want to put together a memorable performance Saturday just in case. I think Locker could be in for a huge day through the air, as the Bears rank 108th nationally in pass defense. There is plenty of talent in the UW receiving corps and the unit seems to elevate its play at Husky Stadium. I also expect the Pac-10’s most underrated player (RB Chris Polk) to have another productive game. Polk has quietly rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season, and he is good enough to challenge the Bears 23rd ranked (nationally) run defense.

The Huskies are extremely difficult to beat at home, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them pull the upset. Nevertheless, I believe the Bears have found a brand new identity since the injury to Best. Vereen is playing inspired football, and I think he will set the tone again on Saturday.

Cal edges Washington in an entertaining finale.

Prediction: Cal 34 – Washington 28

Cal Player to Keep an Eye On: OL Mike Tepper – Tepper is the anchor of the Cal rushing attack and I expect the senior to play big in his final Pac-10 game.

Washington Player to Keep an Eye On: DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim – Te’o-Nesheim is also a senior, and this will be the last game of his career. The ultra-productive defensive end will be looking to exit U-Dub with a bang.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

Emotions will be running high this Saturday in Washington. Cal will be looking to end an overall disappointing regular season on a high note, and Washington will be looking to add one more huge win to their resume.

It’s hard to pick against Washington at home where they are 4-2 with losses only to LSU and Oregon. They clearly play at another level on both sides of the ball at home, and if indeed this is Jake Locker’s last game in a Husky uniform as many have speculated, he’ll be even more revved up to make a statement.

Even taking all that into consideration, though, I can’t pick against Cal here. They’ve been playing excellent football and coming up with some huge plays on both sides of the ball since losing Jahvid Best. Shane Vereen has been electric, and Cal has knocked off two straight ranked opponents in Arizona and Stanford.

Assuming both teams bring their best, which I expect them to, Cal has the edge in talent at this point and should pick up the win.

Prediction: Cal 35 – Washington 27

Arizona Wildcats (7-4) vs. USC Trojans (8-3)
Saturday, December 5, 12:30 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: USC -7.0

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

If Oregon is able to beat Oregon State in the War for the Roses, the winner of this Saturday’s game between USC and UA will likely head to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. Each team could finish as high as second in the conference standings or as low as sixth. Although the Trojans haven’t lost to Arizona in nine years, the series has been closely contested in recent years (last two meetings have been decided by a touchdown).

I like USC in this game for two main reasons. First, the Trojans can still finish with 10 wins this season and I believe that would provide the program with positive momentum heading into the off-season. After last week’s ending against UCLA, ‘SC seems to have found an emotional spark, and I’m sure Pete Carroll will have his team ready for the season finale. Second, the ‘Cats will be without RB Nic Grigsby for yet another game. Last week against Arizona State, it was clear that the ‘Cats missed their home run threat, and the offense just isn’t the same without him.

The Trojans defense is starting to make plays again, and ‘Zona QB Nick Foles will be less than 100%. I expect ‘SC to contain RB Keola Antolin, Greg Nwoko and the rest of the ‘Cats running attack, which should allow the Trojans D to pin its ears back and attack Foles.

The normally stout UA defense has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight games, and I expect RB Joe McKnight to make it four. Once McKnight gets going, Matt Barkley, Damian Williams and the ‘SC passing attack should have plenty of opportunities.

Arizona has led in the fourth quarter of every conference game this season, and I have no doubt Mike Stoops’ club will keep this one close. But in the end, I expect USC to pull away late for another one score victory over the ‘Cats.

Prediction: USC 31 – Arizona 24

Arizona Player to Keep an Eye On: CB Devin Ross - Ross is a shutdown corner capable of eliminating an opposition’s feature receiver. Damian Williams will be his biggest test of the season.

USC Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Anthony McCoy - McCoy figures to be closer to 100%, and I expect him to have a big day against an undersized UA defense.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

Gone is USC’s aura of invincibility, and in its place is a lack of certainty on both sides of the ball.

The defense had an outstanding game against the Bruins, but than again, UCLA doesn’t have a particularly high-powered offense. When going up against the Pac-10’s three top offenses in total yards in Stanford, Oregon State, and Oregon, USC has given up 55, 36, and 47 points, respectively.

Arizona ranks fourth in the conference in total yards.

Can USC’s defense build on the momentum of the UCLA game, or will it fall back into giving up points to another high-powered attack? Despite Arizona’s solid defense and USC’s less-than-stellar offense, I think the Trojans have gotten healthy enough on offense to put up some points in this one; but if the game turns into a shootout, I don’t love USC’s chances.

I don’t think it will turn into a shootout, though. I get the feeling that USC will be the more focused team in this one playing their third straight home game and potentially for a Holiday Bowl berth. Arizona, meanwhile, is coming off of the intense low of losing to the Ducks at home to end their chance at a Rose Bowl to the intense high of beating hated rival ASU in the closing seconds. I just don’t know how much more they have to give in this regular season, and they’ll nead to be at their best to beat USC at the Coliseum, even if this is an off year for the Men of Troy.

Prediction: USC 28 – Arizona 21

Oregon State Beavers (8-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (9-2)
Thursday, December 3, 6:00 PM PST
Las Vegas Favorite: Oregon -9.5
*AllPac10 Game of the Year*

Sam’s Take (53 – 19):

Last year I watched in stunned silence as Oregon throttled Oregon State in Corvallis, and all I remember thinking by the time the 65-38 massacre ended was “Will the Beavers ever have a chance to truly get redemption?” Here we are just one year later, and somehow, that question can be answered with an emphatic yes. Now the stakes are higher than ever, as this will be the first time in the history of the Civil War that both programs can clinch a Rose Bowl berth with a victory.

I see two key areas that will be deciding factors in the War for the Roses.

1. Oregon running game vs. Oregon State run defense – This is the most obvious strength vs. strength match up. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-10 and eighth nationally in rushing offense, while the Beavers rank first in the Pac-10 and 13th nationally in run defense. Obviously Oregon easily won this battle last year, so it will be interesting to see how Mark Banker’s unit performs on Thursday.

2. Oregon State passing game vs. Oregon pass defense – This appears to be the second biggest strength vs. strength match up. OSU heads to Eugene with the best passing offense in the Pac-10 (24th nationally) and QB Sean Canfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference. Despite season ending injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper, the Ducks still rank second in the Pac-10 against pass (29th nationally).

In my opinion, both defenses will struggle in this game. I have no doubt that Mark Banker will have a great game plan this week, but it may not matter. When the Ducks are rolling, they can execute their high-powered attack against any defensive scheme in the country. I also think Nick Aliotti’s unit will be in for a long game. The Ducks have yet to face ‘Quizz Rodgers, and the balanced Beaver attack can score in a variety of ways.

Ultimately, I believe Autzen Stadium will be the difference… again. Jeremiah Masoli has another gear when he plays at home, which makes Oregon’s offensive attack that much tougher to contain. I expect Masoli and LaMichael James to get going early, which will then open passing lanes for the talented Ducks receiving corps. While I expect the Beavers to match UO score for score until late in the second half, Mike Riley’s club will come up a little short in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

Here’s hoping for a classic!

Prediction: Oregon 42 – Oregon State 38

Oregon State Player to Keep an Eye On: TE Joe Halahuni – Halahuni has been one of the biggest surprises on this OSU offense in 2009, and the sophomore will be a huge part of the passing game again this week.

Oregon Player to Keep an Eye On: FS T.J. Ward – Ward is a physical defensive back who should play a huge role in defending the run as well as the pass. I look for him to have a big impact this week.

Dave’s Take (54 – 18):

When this game was scheduled back at the beginning of the season to be the prime time game on ESPN Thursday night, no one could have imagined just how big this game would be.

For either team to have the chance to clinch the Rose Bowl in this one is quite a feat; but winner take all? This is the sort of thing that you see in movies.

After going 10 straight years (1997-2006) trading blows with the home team winning every time, Oregon State finally bucked the trend in 2007 with a double OT winner at Autzen. The Ducks returned the favor in 2008, stomping the Beavers in Corvallis and costiing them a trip to the Rose Bowl. While there is little doubt that home field advantage will still play a big role in this game, the fact that the road team has won the last two games adds an interesting wrinkle.

As much as I really do believe the Beavers have a great chance in this one, I can’t pick against the Ducks, especially at home. The Ducks have now put up 42+ points in seven straight games that Jeremiah Masoli has started, and since conference play has begun they have just mowed through top conference opponents (dropping #6 Cal by 38 and #5 USC by 27).

I expect a much more competitive game than last year, but can’t find enough of an edge for the Beavers to overrule the fact that the game is in Autzen.

Prediction: Oregon 48 – Oregon State 42