Arguing Both Sides – Oregon Ducks and Boise State Broncos: Who Deserves to be Higher in the Polls?
There were plenty of teams rooting for Oregon to beat USC last night, but Boise State had more to root for than anyone. Not only did the loss bounce the Trojans from the national title picture, but it also strengthened Boise State’s resume, as their win over Oregon got even stronger.
Which brings us to a very interesting dilemma; how are we going to deal with the BCS ranking of these two teams? Both schools have very strong arguments, and thanks to the largely imperfect system that is the BCS, no one answer will satisfy everyone.
Let’s just say that Boise State and Oregon both run the table (not too much of a stretch with the way these two teams are playing). After all the smoke has cleared, who should be ahead of who?
THE OREGON ARGUMENT
Alright, you beat us, fair and square. We can make as many excuses as we want about how Jermiah Masoli wasn’t in form yet, how our offense is based on timing and misdirection and we were clearly out of sync due to the fact that it was the first game of the season; but none of that changes the fact that you beat us.
It was your first game of the season, too. And we had the huge revenge chip on our shoulder from when you came into our stadium and beat us last year, and we talked plenty of smack in the media that we didn’t back up. No excuses, no negating your win, you were the better team on that day. Congratulations.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s get to reality. What the hell else have you done this season? To this point, the only other win that is remotely “impressive” is @Fresno State. At 5-3, they’ve put together a decent season, and their three losses all came to good teams (Wisconsin, Boise State, Cincinnati).
Wow. There isn’t a single ranked team on this list after us. @Tulsa was probably a good looking game when you scheduled it, but that offense is just a shell of what it used to be, and they are just a mediocre Conference-USA team. Miami of Ohio at 1-8, Bowling Green at 3-5; not only are three of your four out-of-conference games against non-BCS team; none of them even have a winning record!
Idaho (7-2) and Nevada (5-3) are the only teams with winning records left on your schedule; and you get both of them at home, just like you had us at home. To be clear, your season as a whole has one excellent win.
After that, there isn’t a single ranked team that you play. Your other three out-of-conference wins are pathetic. You play in an extremely weak conference, and to top it all off, you had no challenging road games.
You beat us on your home turf, which was an excellent win. We just handed the #5 USC Trojans, one of the most dominant teams of the last decade, their biggest lost since 1997 on our home turf, which was also an excellent win. Let’s go ahead and call that a wash.
Honestly, 10-1 over the rest of our schedule is SUBSTANTIALLY more impressive than the 12-0 over the rest of yours. It isn’t even close. Just our win over Utah (handing them their only loss of the season) blows out your second best win (Fresno State? Idaho?) by miles.
Crushing (then ranked #6) California 42-3, a team that still has a good chance of being a 10-win team, was another excellent statement game on our resume. I suppose you are matching up the leftover between Fresno State and Idaho in this spot? Tulsa? Nevada? Really?
Assuming we win out and add @Stanford, @Arizona, and Oregon State to our season resume, how can you with a straight face tell us that we should be below you in the polls? You beat us, we beat USC, that’s even. After that, our wins over Utah, California, Stanford, Arizona, and Oregon State are all more impressive than any of your other wins. Note that I didn’t even mention @Washington, who destroyed an Idaho team that is going to be considered one of your Top 5 wins, which you get at home no less.
Congratulations, you beat us. It was a hell of a game. But a season isn’t defined by a single game; it is defined by the whole body of work that went into the entire season. Your “we beat you head to head” argument has some weight, but not nearly enough weight to change the fact that our season has been infinitely more impressive than yours has.
THE BOISE STATE ARGUMENT
Why do we even bother to show up on Saturdays anymore?
No matter what we do, it’s never good enough for anyone. Do you think we are happy that the competition around us in this conference never gets any better? When June Jones had Hawaii playing at an elite level, at least there was one WAC game a year that the nation had some interest in. Now it’s just us and a bunch of Play-Doh.
The system is broken, and we don’t just mean that in the clichéd way that you’ve grown accustomed to hearing it, that non-BCS teams have no chance at all. That’s true too, but the other issue is that there is so much more of an emphasis on losses than wins when you are a big BCS school.
Just look at the top two teams right now; Florida and Texas. Other than Alabama, no other team controls their own destiny like these two do; win out, and they are heading to the national championship game. Look at their out-of-conference schedules!
Florida: Charleston Southern, Troy, Florida International, Florida State
Texas: Louisiana-Monroe, @Wyoming, UTEP, UCF
Wow, way to put yourself out there guys! Florida would probably have preferred to schedule another cupcake instead of FSU if not for the obligation to play them or Miami.
The point is simply this; if you are a nationally loved team that is ranked high in the preseason polls, there is no reason to challenge yourself out-of-conference. It’s better to go undefeated with an easy schedule than to give yourselves more mines to navigate through.
Do you know how many of these big schools we’ve called and tried to schedule games with? Unlike the Florida’s and Texas’s of the world, we realize that running the table won’t be enough, and we need to do the best we can with our out-of-conference games.
But in a system like this one that punishes you so harshly for losses, why would any team ranked in the top 5-10 preseason schedule us? The risk far outweighs the reward. We are the winningest team of the decade. We scare big teams. They laugh us and our record off as “just because of our weak conference”, yet they refuse to prove it on the football field.
But you did accept the challenge, Oregon, and for that we thank you. Because you guys realized that running the table or being a one loss team wasn’t going to be enough to jump the Florida’s and Oklahoma’s and Ohio State’s of the world. You needed quality wins to prove yourself, just like we did. It worked out for both of us.
And guess what? WE BEAT YOU. TWICE. When all of the nation’s best teams turned us down out of fear, you accepted to play us out of mutual respect. You knew that wins over us would help validate you, even if it meant risking losses. We both came into this season with national championship aspirations, and we both knew that the path would start for one of us and end for one of us on our blue turf.
And we won. If you had beaten us, you’d be arguing that you should have your place in the top-two based on your excellent resume, and you’d be right in doing so. Yet when we beat you, and you go on to have a national-championship caliber season otherwise, now you think you should be above us?
Sorry, it doesn’t work like that. People can complain about how we have no competition, but you guys emerging as a national power only proves once again that we can beat top-tier competition, and we belong firmly in the mix for national title consideration.
THE WRAP-UP
As it stands today, Boise State is sitting 2-3 spots ahead of Oregon in both the AP and the USA Today Poll. But as Boise State continues to beat up WAC opponents and Oregon continues picking up quality Pac-10 wins, it will be an interesting month of November.
If one of Florida and Alabama remain undefeated as does Texas and/or Iowa, the Oregon and Boise State placement in relation to one another won’t matter much; Oregon will be tied in to the Rose Bowl, leaving Boise State in their same position among the other at-larges. But if things start to get hazy down the stretch as these things sometimes do in college football…
You’d better pick your side of the fence now.
Its pretty simple:
Who is the better team today?
Obviously BSU was better on September 3rd, but if Boise continues to put up 47 on a bunch of high school football teams while Oregon is hanging 47 on the men of troy, there is nothing I can do to help you if you somehow manage to come to the conclusion that Boise State is the better team.
The fact is that the evidence seems to demonstrate that Oregon is the better team, and its the job of rankings to reflect that.
Then, rankings aside, a more pressing issue in the reality of the BCS selection is: between the two, who travels better?
And that’s not to say that Boise State doesn’t regret the unfortunate situation of their opponents at all, I’m sure they do, and its absolutely not their fault. But the situation as it stands its that Boise State hasn’t proven that it is necessarily deserving of its current ranking (I should say HAD THE OPPORTUNITY to). If they want the kind of big time respect that they complain they are being snubbed from, the fact of the matter is that they have to earn it by playing more than one real football team a year. Plain and simple. And not Boise State’s fault.
It is rough for both sides I suppose to always be under-rated and overlooked. Oregon got robbed that one year when they should have been in the national title game and got squeezed out due to lack of respect. The same goes for Boise State almost every year.
That being said. A victory over Oregon could just be an early victory and as such an anomally, but is wasn’t simply this. Boise State didn’t just squeeze by Oregon on the blue field. Oregon was never even in the game. It was a domination. What else can you say about keeping oregon to a 15 year low 152 total yards with the much lauded running back contributing -5 yards to the effort or 30 something total?
As Oregon rises, so should Boise State. Cream needs to stay on the top.
And just remember Boise State did this to Oregon fielding the youngest team in the NCAA. There are only 5 senior starters on the team and this is supposed to be a rebuilding year after the 12-0 season last year when BSU beat Oregon embarassingly on their own home field as well.
Comparing other teams you played and beat to the teams Boise State played and beat is neither fair nor logically relevant since in the head to head matchup the Broncos won.
Ray,
How the hell do you know that Oregon is the better team today? Your opinion is nothing more than an arbitrary statement based on your view of the world.
Until the system changes, all of us will be caught quagmire of opinion and speculation with no definitive way of proving any point. Sucks to be an excellent non-AQ team because of the powers who control the politics of the BCS.
But your opinion, of course, is your opinion. And I respect that.
As much as I want to feel bad for Boise State when we jump them in the rankings sometime this coming month, I can’t. They just don’t have ANY quality wins. Period. What’s that you say? Our win against Oregon isn’t a quality win? I answer no. You happening to be on the other side of the football when a first year head coach led an offense that beat ITSELF is not a quality win. Sorry.
They beat Oregon and are undefeated. Argument over. The only thing that is bringing up this argument is anti-Boise bias. Period.
I think the Boise State side of the above argument highlights one of the most unacknowledged issues in all of these debates: what happens when Boise State follows our ‘marching orders’ and tries to get better games but can’t b/c there is, in essence, not enough money it in for the AQs. That seems like a systemic bias that will never be alleviated absent a true playoff system. This year, therefore, I am standing with all the schools in the Top 25 who spend less than $10K a player. There are a few.
this is sweet revenge. all you bsu fans (especially the one that punched blount) can eat duck crap. I guess an 11 point victory is dominating to you. we dont claim domination unless we hang up 40.start crying now because if the ducks win out we go to the rose bowl for one of 2 games. bsu an the other hand isnt even close to the best non bcs team. tcu and cinci would smoke you. they both have WAY better reumes than you and will get a bcs bid well before you ever will so the argument is meaningless. you will play one of those two teams and probably lose in the undefeated high school bowl. PS i was a big bsu fan until they did nothing to punish their player or fan. any fan at oregon on tape punching a player would never be banned from the stadium. oregon handled the situation with class. bsu showed they are classless. no discipline to win bsu must be their motto.
Chuck–
Ray may not necessarily be able to “know” Oregon is the better team today, but as the article clearly points out, Oregon has proven it a number of times this season by our wins over ranked teams.
I think BSU is a great team and truly has an excellent coaching staff. But I also think that the reason they struggle with garnering national support is because their “cinderella” methods of winning one big game a season cannot foster BCS bids year in and year out. They had their chance with the Fiesta Bowl against OU, and they responded, proving that their undefeated team was much more than a weak-conference powerhouse. But in the coming years, I don’t think this will continue to work, because voters’ expectations are for BSU to roll in the WAC. They need more decisive wins, and need to schedule tougher opponents.
We will see how this year plays out, but as of right now, I think it is foolish to say Oregon is not the better team.
Oregon does not deserve to surpass Boise State in the polls until Boise State proves they are less worthy, due to a significant loss (or unimpressive win) against a lesser team. Until then, Boise State should not remain below Oregon. Hopefully the politics change a bit due to the fact that fans lose when teams like Boise State are relegated to St. Marys All Girls Volleyball team, which they have no control over whatsoever.
I curious. Why is Oregon considered the ONLY where a head to head loss is the only thing that matters in ranking?
No one wonders why USC is ranked over Washington.
No one wonders why Ohio State is ranked over USC or Purdue.
No one wonders why Oklahoma is ranked over BYU.
No one wonders why Georgia Tech is ranked over Miami.
No one wonders why Pittsburg is ranked over NC State.
No one wonders why Houston is ranked over UTEP.
No one wonders why Miami is ranked over Virginia Tech or Clemson.
No one wonders why Arizona is ranked over Washington.
No one wonders why Notre Dame is ranked over Michigan.
No one wonders why Virginia Tech is ranked over North Carolina
No one wonders why BYU is ranked over Florida State.
But, I hear you saying, BSU is undefeated! Unfortunately, except for Oregon, BSU is undefeated against vastly inferior competition. In order to retain an “elite” status to their resume, BYU must do more than just beat inferior teams. Frankly, it must crush them. A 7 point win over Tulsa simply won’t do.
Should BYU win out they will have no losses versus top 25 competition, but only one win. Should Oregon win out they will have one loss to top 25 competition, and potentially as many as five wins (Utah, Cal, USC, Arizona, and Oregon State). At least two of those wins would be dominating.
In all cases I mention above the more highly ranked teams resume eventually overcame it’s loss to a lesser ranked opponent. So it should be between BSU and the Ducks. Unless BSU is dominating in it’s remaining games, it should be vulnerable to a leapfrog should the Ducks win out.
By the way, thanks for writing this article Mr. Consolazio. Best I’ve seen so far re: Boise State/Oregon quandary.
I’m a Duck fan (though many a Duck fan have questioned & will continue to question my loyalty). I stand with Boise State on this.
It’s simple: two teams played a football game on September 3rd. One team won that game fair & square. No cheap shots, no cheating, no questionable rulings by official. No, nothing of the sort. Boise State beat the Ducks, 19-8. No sugar coating, no excuses, no wouldas, shouldas, couldas.
Listen up: Boise State beat Oregon. Period. As all Duck fans hate to hear: “Scoreboard, baby.”
August,
There are a great many teams ranked ahead of schools that beat them. I suggest we immediately boycott all college football until this horrendous crime against humanity, this overwhelming injustice, is corrected.
OH THE HUMANITY
I’m a Bronco fan (though many a Bronco fan have questioned & will continue to question my loyalty). I stand with Oregon on this.
It’s simple: two teams scheduled out of conference opponents for the 2009 season. One team set a far more difficult schedule fair & square. No two ways about it, no cheating, no questionable deals by officials. No, nothing of the sort. Oregon set a far more difficult schedule than Boise State. No sugar coating, no excuses, no wouldas, shouldas, couldas.
Listen up: Oregon played a far tougher schedule than Boise State. Period. As all Bronco fans hate to hear: “Both your schedule and conference sucks, baby.”
Note to BSU, if you want to got to big time bowls join a big time conference. Plain and simple. Unfortunately nobody knows if your team could handle the weekly rigors of a tough conference. But cherry picking mid level athletes that only have to get up for 2 big games a year does not get my support. You were a nice little cinderella story, now its time to grow up and become an adult. Join a real conference or fade back into oblivion. Your choice.
In my humble opinion, any player that has gone to Boise St in the past couple years is afraid of real competition. They know that they will have winning seasons because they are the best team in their conference by a mile. So, they go there to avoid real competition, and look good doing it. They schedule 1 big out of conference game per year, and hinge all their hopes on winning that game. Well, we’re wise to you Boise St. I say no more. You’ve had your moment in the sun. If you want to take it to the next level, you need to join a legitamite conference and stop ducking consistent competition. Besides, div 1 football is not about fairness anyway, its about bowl money and bowl payouts, and you don’t deserve it with your weak conference and scheduling.
My argument as to why I think the Ducks should be ranked ahead of the Broncos has pretty much been said. And to me it’s exactly why the Ducks should be ahead of the Broncos.
Look at the teams Oregon has beaten over the last seven weeks. They beat a Utah team that has only lost one game the last two seasons. A CAL team that was then Ranked No. 6 in the nation. They’ve had strong away wins to UCLA and also to the same Washington team that beat USC. Then on the weekend, the No. 5 team in the BCS Standings and arguably the best team the last decade in the USC Trojans. And, it wasn’t just a win, it was a 47-20 thumping.
If you look at Boise State’s argument, it’s just that they beat Oregon in Week 1. Yes you did, but that Duck team pales in comparison to the Duck team of now. If they played on a neutral field right now, I think the Ducks would win handily.
John, you’ve got to be kidding me. Ryan Clady is hardly afraid of real competition. Moreover, what evidence do you have that Boise St. “avoids real competition?” The opposite is true. I’m guessing that if you ask the Boise St. Athletic Director he will tell you countless stories of how many times he’s tried to schedule harder games but can’t for lack of funds. You sound like a true BCS algorithm fan. Seriously, are you working as an undercover BCS propagandist?
maybe the sec wont come and play you, but you could schedule the best of the non bcs teams tcu byu utah or anyone else with a pulse. you dont. scared or playing more than one good team is the best way to descibe it. if ryan clady isnt scared why didnt he play in a real confrence
Boise’s win on Sep. 3 has as much relevence to how good a team they are on November 2, as the previous out of conference outcome in last year’s bowl games. How did that turn out? Oregon whupped a BCS conference and higher ranked Oklahoma State team, and Boise fell to a non-BCS conference and lower ranked TCU team. Would Boise fans argue that TCU shouldn’t be ranked ahead of Boise on Nov. 2, or would they say that they should be ranked higher because they beat a top-10 ranked Oregon team and TCU hasn’t beat anyone that highly ranked this year?
Face it, Boise’s schedule is weaker than Byron Hout’s jaw.
If both schools finish in the BCS bowl picture I would love to see a rematch. I know bowls do not like that but this game would draw very well and would be a huge t.v. audience based on the drama created by the knock down punch of Blount. Not to mention he should be playing again by then. This would settle the debate. My guess is that Oregon treates Boise more like the Trojans and Boise sees how far they really are from big boy football.